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Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Multi-Step Reservoir Inflow Forecasting: A Time-Variant Encoder–Decoder Approach

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Performance Monitoring Program: Developing Comparative Metrics for Fitness-for-Duty Programs

To comply with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations, licensees and entities authorized under Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 26 Section 26.3 (§ 26.3) are required to have fitness-for-duty (FFD) programs. Under § 26.3, the expectation of these FFD programs is to provide reasonable assurance that individuals who are granted unescorted access to nuclear power reactor protected areas and Category I fuel cycle facility material control areas are trustworthy, will perform their tasks in a reliable manner, are not under the influence of any substance, legal or illegal, that may impair their ability to perform their duties, and are not mentally or physically impaired from any cause that can adversely affect their ability to safely and competently perform their duties. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked with developing a performance monitoring program to risk inform NRC inspection and policy regarding quantitative FFD performance data. To meet this need, PNNL developed methodologies that could be implemented within a performance monitoring program. Throughout this report, these methodologies are referred to as comparative metrics. The NRC provided PNNL with 2016–2019 data from annual reporting forms and single positive test forms provided by licensees and other entities. For most of the comparative metrics, the analyses required customized processing, such as creating filtering fields, adding data fields and summaries, and joining datasets. The comparative metrics developed include: random testing rate, random policy violation rate, pre-access policy violation rate, subversion attempt rate, and number of policy violations by labor category. The comparative metrics can be used for parsing and visualizing FFD program data and monitoring FFD performance at the labor category, facility, licensee, and industry levels to risk inform NRC inspection and policy with regard to the FFD data currently collected from licensees and other entities that implement Part 26 requirements. Furthermore, these developed comparative metrics allow a more in-depth look at the FFD programs for the industry to discern trends and patterns that may warrant changes at an industry level and to inform policy decisions. These analyses should be refreshed as new FFD data become available.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A PROVEN APPROACH FOR EFFECTIVE COMPUTER SECURITY SELF-ASSESSMENTS AT NUCLEAR FACILITIES

A proven method for conducting cybersecurity self-assessments at nuclear power plants is now available for international use. This method was originally developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, under the sponsorship of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), for use at U.S. nuclear power plants. The “Method,” described in NUREG/CR-6847 “Cyber Security Self-Assessment Method for U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,” was originally a limited release document that was withheld from public disclosure but is now publicly available. The Method provides a systematic, phased, and risk-informed approach to help decision makers and security specialists understand their relative cybersecurity posture. Completed Method assessments may be used to support or validate selection of computer security controls to mitigate cyber threats as well as demonstrate compliance with regulations or statutes enacted by competent authorities. The Method assesses the cybersecurity posture of key systems at a nuclear facility with a focus on protection of design base functions. It considers both physical and digital elements of system vulnerabilities and the resulting potential consequences from exploitation. It is well-suited for addressing blended cyberattacks. A semi-quantitative analytical approach is used in the evaluation of potential vulnerabilities, consequences, and risks and provides a technical basis for the selection of security controls to mitigate cyberattacks. The Method’s application at U.S. nuclear power plants has been very encouraging. The only nuclear plant in the United States that did not have adverse findings during its initial NRC computer security inspection prepared for inspection through the diligent application of this self-assessment method and the implementation of recommendations that came out of that self-assessment. Nuclear facilities around the world might find application of the Method extremely helpful for making cost-effective, risk-based decisions regarding computer security and for preparing to pass computer security inspections by their competent authorities.

Cyber security, Nuclear security, Self-assessment↗

The CYBER security – Competency Health and Maturity Progression (CYBER-CHAMP) model: Extending the National Initiative for Cybersecurity Education (NICE) Framework Across Organizational Security

Problem Statement: There is a pervasive talent deficit in the cybersecurity industry that prevents employers from being able to fill their open positions efficiently. A holistic approach to security is required to ensure organizations have adequate prevention and response capabilities in case of a cyberattack. Specifically, industrial control systems (ICS’s) and their operational technology (OT) components have become a constant target for cyberattacks. Research Questions: It is proposed that the NICE Framework should be extended in the following areas: 1) Include guidance regarding the job roles and competencies for both IT and OT professionals. 2) Offer step-by-step solutions, based on the work role mappings from the NICE Framework, to increase cybersecurity through employee training and education. 3) Provide a streamlined, lifecycle approach to building a cybersecurity program. Contribution: The CYBER security – Competency Health and Maturity Progression (CYBER-CHAMP©) model provides a customized solution for businesses to understand their education gaps in organizational security and target areas for improvement. Rationale: The Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity v1.1 addresses ICS but does not offer a measurement of cybersecurity maturity or clear methods to ascertain an organization’s current risk profile. In Phases 1 and 5 of the model, measurements are provided to help an organization build their current and target risk profiles. The NICE framework provides a structure for planning an IT cybersecurity workforce, but the OT aspects of cybersecurity are only briefly discussed. The model uses Phases 2-3 to examine the competencies of an organization’s workforce, which includes both IT and OT roles. Current frameworks do not offer next steps to increase an organization’s cybersecurity. During Phase 4, employees’ roles are mapped to training, education, and/or certifications from common vendors. Investigative Approach: The model provides measurements and metrics for both an organization’s status and continual improvement. This improvement methodology includes guidance for creating an overall strategic plan for security improvement via products designed to increase an organization’s operational readiness through workforce competency health. Lessons Learned: Depending on who was participating, there were contradicting answers given in Phase 1 due to different security cultures in the organization. This revelation has influenced the steps listed in the User’s Guide, where Phase 1’s first recommended step is to assemble a team that champions the facilitation and implementation of the model in the organization. During Phase 2, the discovery was made that organizations may be missing roles that are necessary to perform critical cybersecurity functions. By understanding the functional roles and competencies needed, they can contract or hire cybersecurity help to fill these gaps. Implications: Using the model, organizations can discuss quantitative measures for improvement as a business case for advancing their security program. Future research can validate and extend the present theory and model to a variety of environments. It is of interest to investigate additional security roles and knowledge domains that are used to build standardized cybersecurity curriculum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Catalyst and reactor design considerations for selective production of acids by oxidative cleavage of alkenes and unsaturated fatty acids with H 2 O 2

Oxidative cleavage of alkenes and unsaturated fatty acids with hydrogen peroxide gives an efficient and sustainable process to obtain mono- and di-acids for polymers and lubricants with fewer safety risks and less environmental impact than processes that utilize ozone or other inorganic oxidizers (e.g., permanganate, dichromate, etc.). Guided by insight into the mechanisms for competing reaction pathways (i.e., epoxidation of alkene on W–(η 2 -O 2 ) complexes vs. H 2 O 2 decomposition) and the apparent kinetics derived from kinetic experiments, here, we postulate that W-based heterogeneous catalysts can provide high performance and stable operations at low H 2 O 2 concentrations. Semi-batch reactors with continuous introduction of H 2 O 2 solutions offer the means to maintain low H 2 O 2 concentrations while providing sufficient quantities of H 2 O 2 to satisfy the reaction stoichiometry. We derived simple kinetic model equations for the epoxidation, ring-opening, oxidative cleavage, and oxidation steps and fit theses equations to batch experimental data to obtain kinetic parameters. Furthermore, this kinetic model describes the concentration profiles of reactant, oxidant, and products well as shown by agreement with experimental data. Further predictions of the optimal H 2 O 2 feed rate for semi-batch operation utilized by the proposed rate expressions and the reactor design equations suggest that low H 2 O 2 feed rate increases selectivity towards oxidative cleavage products and selective use of H 2 O 2 for oxidative cleavage pathway. Comparisons of oxidative cleavage of 4-octene in batch and semi-batch reactors show that semibatch reactors with optimized molar feed rates of H 2 O 2 increased oxidative cleavage product selectivities (76% to 99%; with an increase in butyric acid selectivity from 1% to 55%) and H 2 O 2 selectivity (3% to 30%). In addition, semibatch reaction conditions used avoid H 2 O 2 -mediated dissolution of W-atoms from the catalyst. Analysis of these findings suggest that solid oxide catalysts will be effective for continuous oxidative cleavage reactions if deployed within fixed-bed reactors that allow for distributed introduction of reactants and therefore low in situ concentrations of H 2 O 2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data for Catalyst and Reactor Design Considerations for Selective Production of Acids by Oxidative Cleavage of Alkenes with H2O2

Oxidative cleavage of alkenes and unsaturated fatty acids with hydrogen peroxide gives an efficient and sustainable process to obtain mono- and di-acids for polymers and lubricants with fewer safety risks and less environmental impact than processes that utilize ozone or other inorganic oxidizers (e.g., permanganate, dichromate, etc.). Guided by insight into the mechanisms for competing reaction pathways (i.e., epoxidation of alkene on W–(η2-O2) complexes vs. H2O2 decomposition) and the apparent kinetics derived from kinetic experiments, here, we postulate that W-based heterogeneous catalysts can provide high performance and stable operations at low H2O2 concentrations. Semi-batch reactors with continuous introduction of H2O2 solutions offer the means to maintain low H2O2 concentrations while providing sufficient quantities of H2O2 to satisfy the reaction stoichiometry. We derived simple kinetic model equations for the epoxidation, ring-opening, oxidative cleavage, and oxidation steps and fit theses equations to batch experimental data to obtain kinetic parameters. This kinetic model describes the concentration profiles of reactant, oxidant, and products well as shown by agreement with experimental data. Further predictions of the optimal H2O2 feed rate for semi-batch operation utilized by the proposed rate expressions and the reactor design equations suggest that low H2O2 feed rate increases selectivity towards oxidative cleavage products and selective use of H2O2 for oxidative cleavage pathway. Comparisons of oxidative cleavage of 4-octene in batch and semi-batch reactors show that semi-batch reactors with optimized molar feed rates of H2O2 increased oxidative cleavage product selectivities (76% to 99%; with an increase in butyric acid selectivity from 1% to 55%) and H2O2 selectivity (3% to 30%). In addition, semi-batch reaction conditions used avoid H2O2-mediated dissolution of W-atoms from the catalyst. Analysis of these findings suggest that solid oxide catalysts will be effective for continuous oxidative cleavage reactions if deployed within fixed-bed reactors that allow for distributed introduction of reactants and therefore low in situ concentrations of H2O2.

Catalysis↗

Swine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus replication in primary human cells reveals potential susceptibility to infection

Zoonotic coronaviruses represent an ongoing threat, yet the myriads of circulating animal viruses complicate the identification of higher-risk isolates that threaten human health. Swine acute diarrhea syndrome coronavirus (SADS-CoV) is a newly discovered, highly pathogenic virus that likely evolved from closely related HKU2 bat coronaviruses, circulating in Rhinolophus spp. bats in China and elsewhere. As coronaviruses cause severe economic losses in the pork industry and swine are key intermediate hosts of human disease outbreaks, we synthetically resurrected a recombinant virus (rSADS-CoV) as well as a derivative encoding tomato red fluorescent protein (tRFP) in place of ORF3. rSADS-CoV replicated efficiently in a variety of continuous animal and primate cell lines, including human liver and rectal carcinoma cell lines. Of concern, rSADS-CoV also replicated efficiently in several different primary human lung cell types, as well as primary human intestinal cells. rSADS-CoV did not use human coronavirus ACE-2, DPP4, or CD13 receptors for docking and entry. Contemporary human donor sera neutralized the group I human coronavirus NL63, but not rSADS-CoV, suggesting limited human group I coronavirus cross protective herd immunity. Importantly, remdesivir, a broad-spectrum nucleoside analog that is effective against other group 1 and 2 coronaviruses, efficiently blocked rSADS-CoV replication in vitro. rSADS-CoV demonstrated little, if any, replicative capacity in either immune-competent or immunodeficient mice, indicating a critical need for improved animal models. Efficient growth in primary human lung and intestinal cells implicate SADS-CoV as a potential higher-risk emerging coronavirus pathogen that could negatively impact the global economy and human health.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Materials for Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (A-USC) Steam Turbines --- A-USC Component Demonstration

The U.S. Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (A-USC) Consortium was formed in 2001 as a government/industry program, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Ohio Coal Development Office (OCDO) and cost shared by industrial and not-for-profit partners. The purpose of the consortium was to advance the state of the art for power generation by evaluating and developing materials that allow the use of advanced steam cycles in coal-based power plants. These advanced cycles, with steam temperatures up to 1400°F (760°C), can increase the efficiency of coal-fired boilers from an average of 35% (current U.S. fleet) to more than 45% higher heating value (HHV) (>49% lower heating value [LHV]). The increase in a plant’s efficiency is limited unless new materials able to withstand these higher operating temperatures and pressures are identified and approved for use. The A-USC Consortium identified these needed materials during earlier phases of the program. It developed the welding and joining techniques along with manufacturing processes for casting and wrought products made from these new high-nickel alloys. It subjected these materials to extensive laboratory and steam loop testing. It then obtained ASME code approval for their use in U.S. boiler systems. The program’s successes leave this last remaining activity (ComTest Phase 2) that the U.S. utility industry has recommended to be accomplished prior to commercialization. The focus of the activity is the evaluation and demonstration of commercial readiness for “full scale” components to be made from these nickel-based alloy materials and provided by a U.S. domestic supply chain that is new to working with these alloys. According to studies completed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), the cost of an A-USC plant is approximately 20% higher than a non-A-USC plant because of its use of nickel-based alloys needed for the high temperature operating conditions. However, CO 2 reductions of approximately 30% from the current fleet average provide a strong incentive for its consideration. The actual costs and perceived value for CO 2 abatement will determine whether new or retrofitted plants are undertaken, although decisions to build A-USC plants in India would indicate its economic feasibility while also being part of a global carbon emissions strategy. The work by the A-USC Consortium, prior to the start of the ComTest project, has included lab scale and pilot scale materials testing, both in air and oxy-combustion. This testing has included air-cooled and steam-cooled “loops” that were installed into existing operating utility boilers to gain exposure of these materials to realistic conditions of high temperature and corrosion caused by the constituents in the coal ash. The A-USC Consortium also gained ASME Code approval of the Inconel 740 material, has cast and extruded the largest high nickel precipitation hardened alloys, and developed unique welding techniques to avoid problems identified by the competing European program. However, as valuable as these material test loops and accomplishments have been for obtaining information, their scale is below that required to minimize the risk associated for a U.S. utility to build a multibillion-dollar A-USC power plant. To reduce the final identified risk barrier to full-scale commercialization of these advanced materials and systems, the A-USC Consortium (guided by a utility industry advisory committee) has identified the key areas of the technology they desire to see as being capable of full-scale manufacturing and/or fabrication from an identified, capable U.S. domestic supplier base. A significant amount of work was accomplished during Phase 1 to identity the components, as well as the component size, that would be manufactured from advanced alloys such as Inconel 740H or Haynes 282 alloys. Pathways to supply these components for ComTest have been identified, as well as any further development that would be required. The Phase 2 effort used Phase 1 findings for designing these key full-scale components for A-USC boilers and turbines to include large castings; extrusions, forgings, fabrication of water walls and steam loops with headers from advanced materials, raw material (such as pipe extrusion billets) are at the commercial readiness level to permit advancement to a demonstration project. The Phase 2 work scope was addressed by a diverse team, including government, industry, and not-for-profit partners. The work scope under Phase 2 addressed fabrication of components identified as being outside of the proven capabilities of the existing supply chain, including the following: Steam turbine rotor forging and Haynes 282 nozzle carrier casting Superheater and reheater header and tube assemblies Large-diameter pipe extrusions and forgings Test valve articles to support ASME Code approval. In addition, key fabrication steps were completed, including boiler weld overlays and simulated field repairs. Throughout, extensive inspection and quality assurance testing of the components were performed. The team worked to advance ASME Code approval for key components and processes. Although much of the focus of ComTest Phase 2 was the high-temperature nickel-based alloy materials, a broader range of materials were incorporated, which would be representative of the materials used in full-scale A-USC power plant applications and have cross-cutting applicability on other high-temperature power generation options, such as advanced nuclear, supercritical CO 2 cycles, and central solar receivers. This report that has been submitted is organized in the following manner: Section 1 contains an Executive Summary. Section 2 discusses the ComTest project background and organization. Section 3 discusses project management and reporting. Section 4 discusses the procurement of nickel-based alloy and other A-USC materials and components. Section 5 discusses the fabrication of procurement of nickel-based alloy and other A-USC materials and components. Section 6 discusses the fabrication of cast nickel-based A-USC steam turbine components. Section 7 discusses the fabrication of forged nickel-based A-USC steam turbine piping and steam pipe components. Section 8 discusses the qualification of pressure relieve valves (PRVs) for A-USC power plants. Section 9 discusses proposed plans for future evaluation of A-USC components. Section 10 contains the summary and conclusion.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Digital Engineering and Cybersecurity Decision Analysis in Early Phases of SMR-Driven IES Projects

Considerable efforts are underway to ensure cybersecurity is integrated into the systems engineering lifecycle. Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are intended to identify and engineer out cybersecurity risks throughout the lifecycle. While these approaches are valuable for promoting the need to include cybersecurity considerations in early design phases to create more secure systems, they may not consider the entirety of digital risks. Digital risks in a digital instrumentation and control system include adversarial and unintentional risks from internal and external factors, such as human performance errors, design flaws, environmental conditions, and equipment degradation or failure. This report provides a detailed discussion on digital risk prior to describing the background and concept of operations for a small modular reactor-driven integrated energy system connected to industrial applications. The challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements are discussed and the impacts on digital engineering, security considerations, and interdependencies are evaluated for mission-level, facility-level, and system-level decisions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

FAIR to WISE (F2W) v1.0.0

FAIR to WISE (F2W) is an iterative, large-language model (LLM) driven pipeline that turns unstructured research PDFs into structured, queryable knowledge graphs (KGs). Core features include schema-driven extraction to a LinkML model; full provenance capture; ontology-grounded enrichment (e.g., chemical validation and ChEBI lookup); graph construction to JSON-LD with stable IDs; and KG-RAG question answering with evidence-aware retrieval. The system is engineered for reproducibility and accessibility (open-source Ollama models, temperature=0, NVTX/Nsight profiling) with robust QA (relation verification, deduplication, and deterministic outputs). Primary uses are literature-to-KG automation, knowledge-grounded Q&A, and experimental steering support. We demonstrate the approach in organic photovoltaics, where the pipeline ingests papers, builds a domain KG, and evaluates answers against expert competency questions to guide experimental planning and interpretation. Compared with off-the-shelf LLMs and ad-hoc NLP tools, F2W addresses ontology gaps and reduces hallucination risk by grounding responses in extracted evidence and enforcing schema constraints; it also offers deterministic, provenance-linked outputs and open, cost-aware deployment. Evidence-aware ranking further improves answer quality over pure vector search.

Abramov, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

A Self-Sustained CPS Design for Reliable Wildfire Monitoring

Continuous monitoring of areas nearby the electric grid is critical for preventing and early detection of devastating wildfires. Existing wildfire monitoring systems are intermittent and oblivious to local ambient risk factors, resulting in poor wildfire awareness. Ambient sensor suites deployed near the gridlines can increase the monitoring granularity and detection accuracy. However, these sensors must address two challenging and competing objectives at the same time. First, they must remain powered for years without manual maintenance due to their remote locations. Second, they must provide and transmit reliable information if and when a wildfire starts. The first objective requires aggressive energy savings and ambient energy harvesting, while the second requires continuous operation of a range of sensors. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first self-sustained cyber-physical system that dynamically co-optimizes the wildfire detection accuracy and active time of sensors. The proposed approach employs reinforcement learning to train a policy that controls the sensor operations as a function of the environment (i.e., current sensor readings), harvested energy, and battery level. Here, the proposed cyber-physical system is evaluated extensively using real-life temperature, wind, and solar energy harvesting datasets and an open-source wildfire simulator. In long-term (5 years) evaluations, the proposed framework achieves 89% uptime, which is 46% higher than a carefully tuned heuristic approach. At the same time, it averages a 2-minute initial response time, which is at least 2.5× faster than the same heuristic approach. Furthermore, the policy network consumes 0.6 mJ per day on the TI CC2652R microcontroller using TensorFlow Lite for Micro, which is negligible compared to the daily sensor suite energy consumption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The direct and indirect effects of copper on vector-borne disease dynamics

Metal pollution is a growing concern that affects the health of humans and animals globally. Copper is an essential insect micronutrient required for respiration, pigmentation and oxidative stress protection but can also act as a potentially toxic trace element. While several studies have focused on the negative fitness effects of copper on the aquatic larvae of mosquitoes, the effects of larval copper exposure on adult mosquito fitness (i.e., survival and fecundity) and their ability to transmit parasites (i.e., vector competence) remains unclear. Here, using a well-studied model vector-parasite system, the mosquito Aedes aegypti and parasite Dirofilaria immitis, we show that sublethal copper exposure in larval mosquitoes alters adult female fecundity and vector competence. Specifically, mosquitoes exposed to copper had a hormetic fecundity response and mosquitoes exposed to 600 μg/L of copper had significantly fewer infective parasite larvae than control mosquitoes not exposed to copper. Therefore, exposure of mosquito larvae to copper levels far below EPA-mandated safe drinking water limits (1300 μg/L) can impact vector-borne disease dynamics not only by reducing mosquito abundance (through increased larval mortality), but also by reducing parasite transmission risk. Our results also demonstrated that larval copper is retained through metamorphosis to adulthood in mosquitoes, indicating that these insects could transfer copper from aquatic to terrestrial foodwebs, especially in urban areas where they are abundant. To our knowledge this is the first study to directly link metal exposure with vector competence (i.e., ability to transmit parasites) in any vector-parasite system. Additionally, it also demonstrates unequivocally that mosquitoes can transfer contaminants from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems. These results have broad implications for public health because they directly linking contaminants and vector-borne disease dynamics, as well as linking mosquitoes and contaminant dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene

The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.

Benzo[a]pyrene↗

Competitive TcO4-, IO3-, and CrO42- Incorporation into Ettringite

Ettringite is a naturally occurring mineral found in cementitious matrices that is known for its ability to incorporate environmentally mobile oxyanion contaminants. To better assess this immobilization mechanism for contaminants within cementitious waste forms intended for nuclear waste storage, this work explores how mixed oxyanion contaminants compete for ettringite incorporation and influence the evolving mineralogy. Ettringite was precipitated in the presence of TcO4-, IO3-, and/or CrO42-, known contaminants of concern to nuclear waste treatment, over pre-determined precipitation periods. Solution analyses quantified contaminant removal and the collected solid was characterized using bulk and microprobe XRD coupled with PDF and microprobe XRF analyses. Results suggest that =96% IO3- is removed from solution, regardless of ettringite precipitation time or the presence of TcO4- or CrO42-. However, TcO4- removal remained <20%, was not significantly improved with longer ettringite precipitation times, and significantly decreased in the presence of IO3-. When IO3- is comingled with CrO42, gypsum is formed as a secondary mineral phase, which results in oxyanion partitioning among mineral phases, e.g., IO3- incorporation into ettringite and CrO42- incorporation into gypsum via SO42- substitution. Results from this work exemplify the importance of competitive immobilization when assessing waste form performance and environmental risk of contaminant release.

Gillispie, Elizabeth C.↗

Introducing the Journal of Chemical Education’s Special Issue on Chemical Security

Chemical security can be described as the practice of protecting chemicals from people. This editorial introduces the Special Issue on Chemical Security. In this article, we present a concise history of the use of chemicals as weapons and briefly describe consolidated global approaches needed to decrease the security risks from chemicals. We briefly introduce the contributions to this Special Issue from scientists and educators around the world on the topic of chemical security. Given recent high-profile global events that involved chemicals as weapons, improving chemical security awareness and competency is a critical need. We hope this Special Issue continues to generate conversation and collaboration on this important topic and enables educators to teach chemical security principles in their classrooms and laboratories.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Size and Distribution of Parr Produced from Natural‐ and Hatchery‐Origin Steelhead Spawning Naturally in a Small Pacific Northwest Coastal Stream

Abstract Recent studies suggest that steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss produced from local hatchery‐origin (HOR) adults have lower lifetime fitness than their natural‐origin (NOR) counterparts. To increase our understanding of this pattern, we compared age‐1 parr size and distribution produced by a local integrated population of HOR and NOR adults spawning naturally across a range of environmental conditions. Across 8 years, we used genetic parentage assignments and field measurements of parr in conjunction with creek temperature and flow data to find small, nonbiologically significant differences in size between parr of different parent origins. This suggests that parr produced by HOR adults are acquiring enough resources to grow at a rate similar to that of parr produced by NOR adults. In contrast to origin, we found strong positive associations between mean size of parr and annual mean water temperature and summer flow. Additionally, the distribution of parr was similar and HOR‐produced parr were not skewed relative to the location of the hatchery. Parr occupying the full extent of accessible and suitable habitat might be a positive outcome for hatchery programs seeking to supplement an existing population or replace an extirpated population. However, these results also imply that HOR fish could be competing with NOR fish for food and space, which might be less desirable if the goal of the hatchery program is harvest and not supplementation. Our results highlight the importance of clearly articulated goals for the hatchery program, as the observed pattern could be deemed a benefit or a risk depending on the hatchery's purpose. Lastly, projections for higher water temperatures and reduced summer flows, when considered in the context of the correlations we observed for size of parr, imply that coastal steelhead populations could start experiencing negative climate impacts with respect to steelhead parr growth metrics during the summer in the next few decades.

Kennedy, Benjamen M.↗

National-Tribal Critical Infrastructure Protection: Collaboration for Extraordinary National Security Benefit

This paper examines national and tribal collaborative opportunities to get ahead of the critical infrastructure insecurity problem. Recommendations are viewed through the lens of the Sandia Labs Tribal Cyber-Energy initiative and national security projects. Recommendations include 1) Collaboratively address national priority and shared challenges to gain faster and better solutions to national priority problems on a smaller yet comprehensive American Indian and Alaskan Native sovereign single-point of authority scale 2) Utilize newer standards-based technologies to provide scalable, capable, and manageable solutions for greatly expanded and connected national critical infrastructures 3) Employ Cyber-Physical-Resilient design preliminary analysis to define concept- to-disposition design requirements for preemptive critical infrastructure risk mitigation and baked-in security; 4) Develop data-centric protection to provide increased information asset protection as data shifts from data-owner operated on-premises infrastructure to virtual service provider data-steward owned and operated off-premises infrastructure; and 5) Balance shared solutions with the National Institute of Science and Technology (NIST) Cybersecurity and Risk Management frameworks, and the System Security Engineering Guidelines. As yet unallocated federal funding would support research, development, the timely application of National-Tribal critical infrastructure protection, and critical infrastructure Cyber disruption response and recovery with extraordinary mutual benefits for the foreseeable future. The Critical Infrastructure Insecurity Problem: Rapid modernization and expansive connectivity are due to advances in Information and Communications Technologies that have sweeping cyber impact across all critical infrastructure sectors. Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition and Industrial Control Systems are particularly impacted as systems long separated from the Internet are now being connected and computerized. Virtualization and mobility create a Data Everywhere-User Anywhere paradigm that has evaporated the enterprise network perimeter. There are multi-front technological challenges at play, where long depended on technologies simply don't scale to current needs resulting in a digital dichotomy of competing old and new standards. New standards-based technologies scale but are not as well-known or as widely deployed, which leaves decision makers, stakeholders, and the workforce in a quandary, caught mid-stream between the technological past and the virtual future. Rapid and expansive cyber threat accompanies disruptive change in connectivity and computational dependencies. A lack of action will exacerbate the problem if new technologies roll out without baked-in security design. The Risk: If National-Tribal CIP collaboration to design in security is not done, then an ongoing state of insufficient bolt-on security and elevated threat exposure will remain for years to come.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗