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NASA NTRS1996

New observational facts about particle acceleration and transport during solar flares

Extensive hard X-ray (HXR)/gamma-ray (GR) observations of solar flares, performed during solar cycles 21 and 22 have led to important new discoveries. These data, combined with observations obtained in other parts of the electromagnetic spectrum (soft X-ray, Hard X-ray, optical, and radio) largley contributed to get a better understanding and to develop new ideas on particle acceleration and transport during solar flares. This review presents new observational facts relevant to hard X-ray/gamma-ray producing flares. Among these are the frequent presence of sub-second time structure in the hard X-ray emission, the variability in hard X-ray and radio spatial distributions during a flare and from flare to flare, the evidence for strong gamma-ray line emission from the Corona and the existence of extended phases of the gamma-ray emission lasting for several hours after the flare onset. This ensemble of observations indicates that particle acceleration takes place at different sites in a complex and dynamic magnetic field environment.

Trottel, G.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Swarms: Optimum aggregations of spacecraft

Swarms are aggregations of spacecraft or elements of a space system which are cooperative in function, but physically isolated or only loosely connected. For some missions the swarm configuration may be optimum compared to a group of completely independent spacecraft or a complex rigidly integrated spacecraft or space platform. General features of swarms are induced by considering an ensemble of 26 swarms, examples ranging from Earth centered swarms for commercial application to swarms for exploring minor planets. A concept for a low altitude swarm as a substitute for a space platform is proposed and a preliminary design studied. The salient design feature is the web of tethers holding the 30 km swarm in a rigid two dimensional array in the orbital plane. A mathematical discussion and tutorial in tether technology and in some aspects of the distribution of services (mass, energy, and information to swarm elements) are included.

Mayer, H. L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Mean rotor wake characteristics of an aerodynamically loaded 0.5 m diameter fan

Mean rotor wake properties at several downstream distances behind the rotor of a loaded 1.2 pressure ratio fan were measured with a cross film anemometer in an anechoic wind tunnel. Mean wake characteristics in the midspan and near tip region were determined utilizing an ensemble averaging technique. The upwash and streamwise components of the velocity behind the rotor indicate a complex structure superimposed on the major velocity defects at a down stream spacing of 0.5 rotor chords. Spectral analysis indicates high levels of the second and fourth harmonics of the blade passage frequency in the midspan region while the blade passage frequency and its second and third harmonic are predominant in the tip region.

Shaw, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Mean rotor wake characteristics of an aerodynamically loaded 0.5 m diameter fan

Mean rotor wake properties at several downstream distances behind the rotor of a loaded 1.2 pressure ratio fan were measured with a cross film anemometer in an anechoic wind tunnel. Mean wake characteristics in the midspan and near tip region were determined utilizing an ensemble averaging technique. The upwash and streamwise components of the velocity behind the rotor indicate a complex structure superimposed on the major velocity defects at a downstream spacing of 0.5 rotor chords. Spectral analysis indicates high levels of the second and fourth harmonics of the blade passage frequency in the midspan region while the blade passage frequency and its second and third harmonic are predominant in the tip region.

Shaw, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol Observability and Predictability: From Research to Operations for Chemical Weather Forecasting. Lagrangian Displacement Ensembles for Aerosol Data Assimilation

A challenge common to many constituent data assimilation applications is the fact that one observes a much smaller fraction of the phase space that one wishes to estimate. For example, remotely sensed estimates of the column average concentrations are available, while one is faced with the problem of estimating 3D concentrations for initializing a prognostic model. This problem is exacerbated in the case of aerosols because the observable Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is not only a column integrated quantity, but it also sums over a large number of species (dust, sea-salt, carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. An aerosol transport model when driven by high-resolution, state-of-the-art analysis of meteorological fields and realistic emissions can produce skillful forecasts even when no aerosol data is assimilated. The main task of aerosol data assimilation is to address the bias arising from inaccurate emissions, and Lagrangian misplacement of plumes induced by errors in the driving meteorological fields. As long as one decouples the meteorological and aerosol assimilation as we do here, the classic baroclinic growth of error is no longer the main order of business. We will describe an aerosol data assimilation scheme in which the analysis update step is conducted in observation space, using an adaptive maximum-likelihood scheme for estimating background errors in AOD space. This scheme includes e explicit sequential bias estimation as in Dee and da Silva. Unlikely existing aerosol data assimilation schemes we do not obtain analysis increments of the 3D concentrations by scaling the background profiles. Instead we explore the Lagrangian characteristics of the problem for generating local displacement ensembles. These high-resolution state-dependent ensembles are then used to parameterize the background errors and generate 3D aerosol increments. The algorithm has computational complexity running at a resolution of 1/4 degree, globally. We will present the result of assimilating AOD retrievals from MODIS (on both Aqua and TERRA satellites) from AERONET for validation. The impact on the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting will be fully documented.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

NASA NTRS2003

Project trades model for complex space missions

A Project Trades Model (PTM) is a collection of tools/simulations linked together to rapidly perform integrated system trade studies of performance, cost, risk, and mission effectiveness. An operating PTM captures the interactions between various targeted systems and subsystems through an exchange of computed variables of the constituent models. Selection and implementation of the order, method of interaction, model type, and envisioned operation of the ensemble of tools rpresents the key system engineering challenge of the approach. This paper describes an approach to building a PTM and using it to perform top-level system trades for a complex space mission. In particular, the PTM discussed here is for a future Mars mission involving a large rover.

web services↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dimensionality Reduction Through Classifier Ensembles

In data mining, one often needs to analyze datasets with a very large number of attributes. Performing machine learning directly on such data sets is often impractical because of extensive run times, excessive complexity of the fitted model (often leading to overfitting), and the well-known "curse of dimensionality." In practice, to avoid such problems, feature selection and/or extraction are often used to reduce data dimensionality prior to the learning step. However, existing feature selection/extraction algorithms either evaluate features by their effectiveness across the entire data set or simply disregard class information altogether (e.g., principal component analysis). Furthermore, feature extraction algorithms such as principal components analysis create new features that are often meaningless to human users. In this article, we present input decimation, a method that provides "feature subsets" that are selected for their ability to discriminate among the classes. These features are subsequently used in ensembles of classifiers, yielding results superior to single classifiers, ensembles that use the full set of features, and ensembles based on principal component analysis on both real and synthetic datasets.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Annual Research Briefs

This report contains the 1997 annual progress reports of the research fellows and students supported by the Center for Turbulence Research (CTR). Titles include: Invariant modeling in large-eddy simulation of turbulence; Validation of large-eddy simulation in a plain asymmetric diffuser; Progress in large-eddy simulation of trailing-edge turbulence and aeronautics; Resolution requirements in large-eddy simulations of shear flows; A general theory of discrete filtering for LES in complex geometry; On the use of discrete filters for large eddy simulation; Wall models in large eddy simulation of separated flow; Perspectives for ensemble average LES; Anisotropic grid-based formulas for subgrid-scale models; Some modeling requirements for wall models in large eddy simulation; Numerical simulation of 3D turbulent boundary layers using the V2F model; Accurate modeling of impinging jet heat transfer; Application of turbulence models to high-lift airfoils; Advances in structure-based turbulence modeling; Incorporating realistic chemistry into direct numerical simulations of turbulent non-premixed combustion; Effects of small-scale structure on turbulent mixing; Turbulent premixed combustion in the laminar flamelet and the thin reaction zone regime; Large eddy simulation of combustion instabilities in turbulent premixed burners; On the generation of vorticity at a free-surface; Active control of turbulent channel flow; A generalized framework for robust control in fluid mechanics; Combined immersed-boundary/B-spline methods for simulations of flow in complex geometries; and DNS of shock boundary-layer interaction - preliminary results for compression ramp flow.

Spinks, Debra↗

NASA NTRS2013

Community Supported Stardust Compendia

The Stardust cometary and interstellar collections present unprecedented challenges in sample preparation and analysis. The ensemble of approx.80 tracks and dozens of foil craters from the cometary collection for which we have analyses exhibits a bewildering complexity and diversity of materials. The interstellar collection is even more challenging, because of the extremely low fluence of interstellar dust, a relatively large background of secondary ejecta from impacts on the spacecraft, and the small size of interstellar dust, approximately three orders of magnitude smaller in mass than typical cometary particles. Unlike with the other returned sample collections, characterization of these samples beyond basic photo-documentation is not generally practical at JSC. Even among the other small-particle collections, currently the cosmic dust and Hayabusa samples, SEM/EDX can provide basic chemistry. This is not possible with Stardust particles without destructive and invasive sample preparation. Furthermore, SEM/EDX requires isolating small grains from adhering aerogel. A reliable technique to carry out this task does not exist. Complete characterization of particles requires coordinated analyses using synchrotron and electron-beam microprobes, which do not exist at any one lab. Thus, it was recognized since the Stardust Preliminary Examination in 2006 that characterization of the samples would rely on the worldwide community of Stardust Investigators. Here we announce the development of community-editable, wiki-style Stardust compendia that will support this effort. Our intention is that this will facilitate sample requests by providing basic characterization of tracks. We expect that this will also support comprehensive meta-analyses (global syntheses of analyses) of the collections.

Westphal, Andrew J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Three-dimensional ballistocardiography and respiratory motion in sustained microgravity

BACKGROUND: We measured the three-dimensional ballistocardiogram (BCG) in a free-floating subject in sustained microgravity during spaceflight to test the usefulness of such measurements for future non-invasive monitoring of cardiac function, and to examine the effects of respiratory movement on the BCG in three axes. METHODS: Acceleration was measured using a three-axis accelerometer fastened to the lumbar region of the subject while simultaneous recordings of ECG, and respiratory motion via impedance plethysmography were also made. Data were recorded during a 146-s period of inactivity on the part of the subject during which time there was no contact with the spacecraft. RESULTS: Total body motion due to respiratory activity was consistent with that calculated from the known action of the diaphragm and conservation of momentum. The accelerations due to cardiac activity, ensemble averaged over the R-R interval, were greatest along the head-to-foot axis. Maximum amplitude of the HIJK complex of the BCG generated by ventricular ejection was greatest in the head to foot axis (approximately 70 x 10(-3) m x s(-2)), but there were also substantial accelerations along the dorsoventral axis of up to 43 10(-3) m x s(-2), that are not measured interrestrial two-dimensional studies. The amplitude of the BCG was strongly affected by lung volume, with accelerations being reduced 50 to 70% between end-inspiration and end-expiration. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest a greatly reduced transmission of the cardiac motion to the body at end-expiration (FRC) than at higher lung volumes. The BCG might be further developed as a non-invasive means of monitoring parameters such as stroke volume in microgravity.

Flight Experiment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of Radiation-Induced DNA Damage With the Code RITRACKS

INTRODUCTION DNA damage is one of the most physiologically important effects of ionizing radiation. Clustered DNA damage events, like double-strand breaks (DSBs), have the most notable biological consequences. DNA damage types depend on both the track structure of the radiation and the spatial organization of the DNA. High linear energy transfer (LET) charged nuclei, found in galactic cosmic rays (GCR), are known to produce large numbers of complex DNA damage events. The human genome is packaged into chromatin, which can take on locus-dependent and cell type-dependent spatial conformations that correspond to epigenetic states, such as more open, extended structures in transcriptionally active chromatin. These epigenetic differences can affect DNA break patterns in response to ionizing radiation, potentially creating distinct DNA repair and signaling outcomes across the genome in different cells. MATERIAL AND METHODS The code RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks), which simulates stochastic radiation track structures and radiation chemistry, was used to model damage on isolated and histone-bound DNA by various types of ions and photons. The changes made to the code to perform radiation-induced DNA damage, and simulation results on single nucleosomes are given in our recent paper. In this work, the DNA building capabilities of RITRACKS have been extended to simulate more complex DNA structures build on the coarse-grain simulation framework meso-WLCsim. This code can sample generic chromatin fiber conformation ensembles based on the geometry of nucleosomes and mechanical properties of DNA. Using RITRACKS, we simulated the fragment length distributions (FLD) of irradiated DNA structures built using the chromatin conformations of WLCsim and obtained results representative of those obtained with Radiation-Induced Correlated Cleavage with sequencing (RICC-Seq) experiments [6]. We have also performed Fe ion and photon irradiations of K562, IMR90, BJ and RPE-1 cells at NSRL to experimentally validate results. Sample processing and data analysis are in progress and any available preliminary results will be discussed. DISCUSSION The recent updates in the code RITRACKS allow the calculation of several quantities such as the DNA damage yield and the FLD. This approach can be used to model epigenetic state-specific chromatin structure parameters to leverage the epigenetic state data available for many human cell types to infer relative DNA damage sensitivity among genomic loci.

I Plante↗

NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

complex simulation↗

NASA NTRS1986

Submillimetre molecular line observations of M17: The interaction of an ionisation front and molecular clouds

An area of about 9 by 10 arc minutes in the M17 molecular cloud has been mapped in the J=3-2 transition of CO. The strongest CO emission is observed to come from the two bars to the north and southwest, which lie just outside the area of ionized gas seen in the radio continuum studies. We are viewing the boundary between the ionized and molecular gas almost edge on. The most intense CO emission is from the area around the dense molecular cloud core M17SW in the southwest bar. To the east of M17SW there are signs of recent or continuing star formation including H2O masers and an ultra-compact HII region. The CO J=3-2 spectra observed are complex with considerable variation in line shapes occuring over distances of less than one arc minute. We interpret the velocity structure of this region as arising from an ensemble of molecular cloud fragments in addition to extended emission. We have identified several cloud components at different velocities within both the northern and southwest bars of CO emission. A simple kinematic model of the cloud components in the southwest bar in which they are considered to be clumps of post-shock gas lying close to the edge of the expanding HII region, with the shock being driven by Kleinmann's star, gives a velocity of approx. 10.8 km s(-1) for the expansion velocity of the HII region, which is currently at a distance of approx. 2.4 pc from Kleinmann's star. The resulting shock is thought to be preceding the ionisation front and appears to have led to the fragmentation of the original cloud.

Rainey, R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2003

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes of Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution ion the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble f clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperatures, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulated squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined. This will be mainly achieved by performing sensitivity tests using various horizontal (from 1- to 5-km) and vertical resolutions (from 20- to 200-m in the lower troposphere to 200- to 500-m in the middle and upper troposphere). Sensitivity tests using various microphysical schemes (warm rain only, and three ice with either graupel or hail) will also be performed. The thermodynamic and water budget associated with various types of precipitation systems will also be evaluated. The budgets will be calculated for different regions (i.e., convective and stratiform regions).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2017

Classifying Multi-Model Wheat Yield Impact Response Surfaces Showing Sensitivity to Temperature and Precipitation Change

Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (minus 2 to plus 9 degrees Centigrade) and precipitation (minus 50 to plus 50 percent). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses. The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern. The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description. Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index. Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.

Classification; Climate change; Crop model; Ensemb↗