Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “computational statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Quantum Simulations of Radiation Damage in a Molecular Polyethylene Analog

Abstract An atomic‐level understanding of radiation‐induced damage in simple polymers like polyethylene is essential for determining how these chemical changes can alter the physical and mechanical properties of important technological materials such as plastics. Ensembles of quantum simulations of radiation damage in a polyethylene analog are performed using the Density Functional Tight Binding method to help bind its radiolysis and subsequent degradation as a function of radiation dose. Chemical degradation products are categorized with a graph theory approach, and occurrence rates of unsaturated carbon bond formation, crosslinking, cycle formation, chain scission reactions, and out‐gassing products are computed. Statistical correlations between product pairs show significant correlations between chain scission reactions, unsaturated carbon bond formation, and out‐gassing products, though these correlations decrease with increasing atom recoil energy. The results present relatively simple chemical descriptors as possible indications of network rearrangements in the middle range of excitation energies. Ultimately, the work provides a computational framework for determining the coupling between nonequilibrium chemistry in polymers and potential changes to macro‐scale properties that can aid in the interpretation of future radiation damage experiments on plastic materials.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A crossed molecular beams and computational study on the unusual reactivity of banana bonds of cyclopropane (c-C 3 H 6 ; X 1 A$^{'}_{1}$ ) through insertion by ground state carbon atoms (C( 3 P j ))

The mechanism and chemical dynamics of the reaction of ground electronic state atomic carbon C( 3 P j ) with cyclopropane c-C 3 H 6 (X 1 A$^{'}_{1}$) have been explored by combining crossed molecular beams experiments with electronic structure calculations of the pertinent triplet C 4 H 6 potential energy surface and statistical computations of product branching ratios under single-collision conditions. The experimental findings suggest that the reaction proceeds via indirect scattering dynamics through triplet C 4 H 6 reaction intermediate(s) leading to C 4 H 5 product(s) plus atomic hydrogen via a tight exit transition state, with the overall reaction exoergicity evaluated as 231 ± 52 kJ mol –1 . The calculations indicate that C( 3 P j ) can easily insert into one of the three equivalent C–C ‘banana’ bonds of cyclopropane overcoming a low barrier of only 2 kJ mol –1 following the formation of a van der Waals reactant complex stabilized by 15 kJ mol –1 . The carbon atom insertion into one of the six C–H bonds is also feasible via a slightly higher barrier of 5 kJ mol –1 . Here, these results highlight an unusual reactivity of cyclopropane's banana C–C bonds, which behave more like unsaturated C–C bonds with a π-character than saturated σ C–C bonds, which are known to be generally unreactive toward the ground electronic state atomic carbon such as in ethane (C 2 H 6 ). The statistical theory predicts the overall product branching ratios at the experimental collision energy as 50% for 1-butyn-4-yl, 33% for 1,3-butadien-2-yl, i-C 4 H 5 , and 11% for 1,3-butadien-1-yl, n-C 4 H 5 , with i-C 4 H 5 (230 kJ mol –1 below the reactants) favored by the C–C insertion providing the best match with the experimentally observed reaction exoergicity. The C( 3 P j ) + c-C 3 H 6 reaction is predicted to be a source of C 4 H 5 radicals under the conditions where its low entrance barriers can be overcome, such as in planetary atmospheres or in circumstellar envelopes but not in cold molecular clouds. Both i- and n-C 4 H 5 can further react with acetylene eventually producing the first aromatic ring and hence, the reaction of the atomic carbon with c-C 3 H 6 can be considered as an initial step toward the formation of benzene.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Computation of conventional and alternative jet fuel sensitivity to lean blowout

Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are performed to compute the sensitivity of a conventional (A-2) and an alternate bio-jet (C-1) fuel to Lean Blowout (LBO). A realistic aviation gas turbine engine combustor configuration is considered. Reliable experimental LBO data and OH* chemiluminescence data for the conventional and alternate jet fuel in the combustor configuration have recently become available. The present work utilizes a highly automated, on-the-fly meshing strategy, along with adaptive mesh refinement, to demonstrate the feasibility of capturing the realistic combustion processes. A Lagrangian framework, with initial conditions specified using measurements of spray statistics, is used to model the fuel spray. Newly developed compact reaction mechanisms based on fuel surrogates are validated for the A-2 and the C-1 fuels. The compact reaction mechanisms are implemented using a detailed finite rate chemistry solver. Spray statistics computed by the present LES simulations compare well with available measurements at stable flame conditions near the lean blowout limit. The computed shape of the stable flame as represented by line integrated OH concentrations compares well with the experimental OH* chemiluminescence data. Lean blowout is reached by gradually decreasing the fuel flow rate in the computations, similar to that in the experiments. The results of the LES simulations effectively capture the fuel composition effects and estimate the sensitivity of the LBO limits to the fuel type. The computed trends in LBO limits agree within engineering accuracy with the experimental results for conventional and alternative aviation fuels. The methodology for predicting the fuel composition effects on the lean blowout limits in a fully resolved realistic, complex combustor is established for the first time.

Adaptive mesh refinement↗

Mathematical nuances of Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

Abstract The fields of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed almost every aspect of science and engineering. The excitement for AI/ML methods is in large part due to their perceived novelty, as compared to traditional methods of statistics, computation, and applied mathematics. But clearly, all methods in ML have their foundations in mathematical theories, such as function approximation, uncertainty quantification, and function optimization. Autonomous experimentation is no exception; it is often formulated as a chain of off-the-shelf tools, organized in a closed loop, without emphasis on the intricacies of each algorithm involved. The uncomfortable truth is that the success of any ML endeavor, and this includes autonomous experimentation, strongly depends on the sophistication of the underlying mathematical methods and software that have to allow for enough flexibility to consider functions that are in agreement with particular physical theories. We have observed that standard off-the-shelf tools, used by many in the applied ML community, often hide the underlying complexities and therefore perform poorly. In this paper, we want to give a perspective on the intricate connections between mathematics and ML, with a focus on Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation. Although the Gaussian process is a powerful mathematical concept, it has to be implemented and customized correctly for optimal performance. We present several simple toy problems to explore these nuances and highlight the importance of mathematical and statistical rigor in autonomous experimentation and ML. One key takeaway is that ML is not, as many had hoped, a set of agnostic plug-and-play solvers for everyday scientific problems, but instead needs expertise and mastery to be applied successfully. Graphical abstract

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

gdess: A framework for evaluating simulated atmospheric CO 2 in Earth System Models

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and global warming. Climate-carbon feedbacks are often studied and estimated using Earth System Models (ESMs), which couple together multiple model components—including the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere, and cryosphere—to jointly simulate mass and energy exchanges within and between these components. Despite tremendous advances, model intercomparisons and benchmarking are aspects of ESMs that warrant further improvement (Fer et al., 2021; Smith et al., 2014). Such benchmarking is critical because comparing the value of state variables in these simulations against observed values provides evidence for appropriately refining model components; moreover, researchers can learn much about Earth system dynamics in the process (Randall et al., 2019). We introduce `gdess` (a.k.a., Greenhouse gas Diagnostics for Earth System Simulations), which parses observational datasets and ESM simulation output, combines them to be in a consistent structure, computes statistical metrics, and generates diagnostic visualizations. In its current incarnation, `gdess` facilitates evaluating a model's ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric CO 2 . The diagnostics implemented modularly in `gdess` support more rapid assessment and improvement of model-simulated global CO 2 sources and sinks associated with land and ocean ecosystem processes. We intend for this set of automated diagnostics to form an extensible, open source framework for future comparisons of simulated and observed concentrations of various greenhouse gases across Earth system models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fundamental limit of jet tagging

Identifying the origin of high-energy hadronic jets (jet tagging) has been a critical benchmark problem for machine learning in particle physics. Jets are ubiquitous at colliders and are complex objects that serve as prototypical examples of collections of particles to be categorized. Over the last decade, machine learning-based classifiers have replaced classical observables as the state of the art in jet tagging. Increasingly complex machine learning models are leading to increasingly more effective tagger performance. Our goal is to address the question of convergence—are we getting close to the fundamental limit on jet tagging or is there still potential for computational, statistical, and physical insights for further improvements? We address this question using state-of-the-art generative models to create a realistic, synthetic dataset with a known jet tagging optimum. Various state-of-the-art taggers are deployed on this dataset, showing that there is a significant gap between their performance and the optimum. Our dataset and software are made public to provide a benchmark task for future developments in jet tagging and other areas of particle physics.

Artificial intelligence↗

Wormholes with ends of the world

We study classical wormhole solutions in 3D gravity with end-of-the-world (EOW) branes, conical defects, kinks, and punctures. These solutions compute statistical averages of an ensemble of boundary conformal field theories (BCFTs) related to universal asymptotics of OPE data extracted from the 2D conformal bootstrap. Conical defects connect BCFT bulk operators; branes join BCFT boundary intervals with identical boundary conditions; kinks (1D defects along branes) link BCFT boundary operators; and punctures (0D defects) are endpoints where conical defects terminate on branes. We provide evidence for a correspondence between the gravity theory and the ensemble. In particular, the agreement of the g-function dependence results from an underlying topological aspect of the on-shell EOW brane action, from which a BCFT analog of the Schlenker-Witten theorem also follows.

AdS-CFT Correspondence↗

Isomer-resolved unimolecular dynamics of the hydroperoxyalkyl intermediate (•QOOH) in cyclohexane oxidation

The oxidation of cycloalkanes is important in the combustion of transportation fuels and in atmospheric secondary organic aerosol formation. A transient carbon-centered radical intermediate (•QOOH) in the oxidation of cyclohexane is identified through its infrared fingerprint and time- and energy-resolved unimolecular dissociation dynamics to hydroxyl (OH) radical and bicyclic ether products. Although the cyclohexyl ring structure leads to three nearly degenerate •QOOH isomers (β-, γ-, and δ-QOOH), their transition state (TS) barriers to OH products are predicted to differ considerably. Selective characterization of the β-QOOH isomer is achieved at excitation energies associated with the lowest TS barrier, resulting in rapid unimolecular decay to OH products that are detected. A benchmarking approach is employed for the calculation of high-accuracy stationary point energies, in particular TS barriers, for cyclohexane oxidation (C 6 H 11 O 2 ), building on higher-level reference calculations for the smaller ethane oxidation (C 2 H 5 O 2 ) system. The isomer-specific characterization of β-QOOH is validated by comparison of experimental OH product appearance rates with computed statistical microcanonical rates, including significant heavy-atom tunneling, at energies in the vicinity of the TS barrier. Master-equation modeling is utilized to extend the results to thermal unimolecular decay rate constants at temperatures and pressures relevant to cyclohexane combustion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of renormalon scheme and perturbative scale choices on determinations of the strong coupling from e + e − event shapes

We study the role of renormalon cancellation schemes and perturbative scale choices in extractions of the strong coupling constant α s ( m Z ) and the leading nonperturbative shift parameter Ω 1 from resummed predictions of the e + e − event shape thrust. We calculate the thrust distribution to N L 3 L ′ resummed accuracy in soft-collinear effective theory (SCET) matched to the fixed-order O ( α s 2 ) prediction, and perform a new high-statistics computation of the O ( α s 3 ) matching in , although we do not include the latter in our final α s fits due to some observed systematics that require further investigation. We are primarily interested in testing the phenomenological impact sourced from varying amongst three renormalon cancellation schemes and two sets of perturbative scale profile choices. We then perform a global fit to available data spanning center-of-mass energies between 35–207 GeV in each scenario. Relevant subsets of our results are consistent with prior SCET-based extractions of α s ( m Z ) , but we are also led to a number of novel observations. Notably, we find that the combined effect of altering the renormalon cancellation scheme and profile parameters can lead to few-percent-level impacts on the extracted values in the α s − Ω 1 plane, indicating a potentially important systematic theory uncertainty that should be accounted for. We also observe that fits performed over windows dominated by dijet events are typically of a higher quality than those that extend into the far tails of the distributions, possibly motivating future fits focused more heavily in this region. Finally, we discuss how different estimates of the three-loop soft matching coefficient c S ˜ 3 can also lead to measurable changes in the fitted { α s , Ω 1 } values. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Bulk Properties of an Atomic Nucleus

We perform a global sensitivity analysis of the binding energy and the charge radius of the nucleus 16 O to identify the most influential low-energy constants in the next-to-next-to-leading order chiral Hamiltonian with two- and three-nucleon forces. For this purpose, we develop a subspace-projected coupled-cluster method using eigenvector continuation [Frame D. et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 121, 032501 (2018)]. With this method, we compute the binding energy and charge radius of 16 O at more than 106 different values of the 16 low-energy constants in one hour on a standard laptop computer. For relatively small subspace projections, the root-mean-square error is about 1% compared to full-space coupled-cluster results. We find that 58(1)% of the variance in energy can be apportioned to a single contact term in the 3 S 1 wave, whereas the radius depends sensitively on several low-energy constants and their higher-order correlations. The results identify the most important parameters for describing nuclear saturation and help prioritize efforts for uncertainty reduction of theoretical predictions. The achieved acceleration opens up an array of computational statistics analyses of the underlying description of the strong nuclear interaction in nuclei across the Segrè chart.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

MultiLoad-GAN: A GAN-Based Synthetic Load Group Generation Method Considering Spatial-Temporal Correlations

This paper presents a deep-learning framework, Multi-load Generative Adversarial Network (MultiLoad-GAN), for generating a group of synthetic load profiles (SLPs) simultaneously. The main contribution of MultiLoad-GAN is the capture of spatial-temporal correlations among a group of loads that are served by the same distribution transformer. This enables the generation of a large amount of correlated SLPs required for microgrid and distribution system studies. Here, the novelty and uniqueness of the MultiLoad-GAN framework are three-fold. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first method for generating a group of load profiles bearing realistic spatial- temporal correlations simultaneously. Second, two complementary realisticness metrics for evaluating generated load profiles are developed: computing statistics based on domain knowledge and comparing high-level features via a deep-learning classifier. Third, to tackle data scarcity, a novel iterative data augmentation mechanism is developed to generate training samples for enhancing the training of both the classifier and the MultiLoad-GAN model. Simulation results show that MultiLoad- GAN can generate more realistic load profiles than existing approaches, especially in group level characteristics. With little finetuning, MultiLoad-GAN can be readily extended to generate a group of load or PV profiles for a feeder or a service area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

pnnl/frequency_sensitivity

This research code base includes functions to compute statistics of image distributions in (spatial DFT) frequency space, train deep learning image classifiers on these distributions with variable depth and weight decay, and finally measure the sensitivity of the trained models to perturbations along (spatial DFT) frequency components.

Central, PNNL Developer↗

NEON AOP Survey of Upper East River CO Watersheds: Waveform LiDAR Binary Data

The waveform Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data in this package were generated through a National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP) acquisition over watersheds of interest surrounding Crested Butte, Colorado. The remote sensing imagery acquired by the NEON AOP supports an interdisciplinary project on hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem functioning in a snow-dominated headwater environment. These waveform LiDAR data enable spatially continuous estimation of vegetation structure parameters to facilitate analyses of the major environmental drivers of structural and compositional variability. The package contains 97 compressed file archives in 7-zip (.7z) format, each corresponding to one acquisition flightpath. Within each .7z archive is a set of constituent files describing properties of the LiDAR waveforms, such as return intensity, geolocation, outgoing pulse and other behavior of the sensor and signals. Once downloaded, the files must first be unzipped using the widely distributed command-line software utility 7z, using the command '7z x \[filename\].7z \[target_directory\]'. All files within the .7z archives can be opened in IDL, MatLab, or the open-source R statistical computing environment. Further details about the data package are in the attached user guide (neon_aop_crbu_waveformlidar_userguide.pdf). This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

Data from: 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed'

This package archives the core data used for analysis and inference in 'Abiotic influences on continuous conifer forest structure across a subalpine watershed' (Worsham et al., 2025). All data were collected in the East River, Washington Gulch, Slate River, and Coal Creek watersheds of Colorado. In the paper, we quantified the relative influence of climate, topographic, edaphic, and geologic factors on conifer stand structure and composition, and their functional relationships, at the watershed scale. We used waveform LiDAR data to derive spatially continuous stand structure metrics. We fused these with a species-level classification map to estimate tree species abundance. We applied generalized additive and generalized boosted models to evaluate the covariability of structural and compositional metrics with abiotic variables. The package contains the essential products required for reproducing our analysis and the tables and figures reported in the publication. The products comprise four classes: (1) geospatial data, (2) tabular data used for inferential analysis, (3) tabular data describing analytical results and performance statistics, and (4) a data user guide. (1) includes discretized waveform LiDAR data, locations and attributes of individual tree crowns, sampling locations and domain boundaries, a canopy height model, and raster files of estimated forest structural and compositional metrics at 100 m grid scale. (2) includes all response and explanatory variable values applied in inferential models. Response variables include conifer forest stand density, basal area, 95th percentile height, quadratic mean diameter, and others. Explanatory variables include climatic water deficit, actual evapotranspiration, elevation, heat load, soil available water content, and others. (3) includes results of training and testing several individual tree detection (ITD) algorithms, as well as inferential modeling results. (4) is a PDF user guide for this data package, including detailed descriptions and data dictionaries for all files. The data package root contains 17 assets: 8 compressed tape archive (.tar.gz) files, 5 comma-separated values (.csv) files, 3 Geographic Tagged Image File Format (GeoTIFF) (.tif) files, and 1 Portable Document Format (.pdf) file. The compressed .tar.gz archives contain ESRI shapefiles (.shp) .tif, compressed LASer (.laz), and .csv files. The archives must first be decompressed using the widely distributed command-line software utility TAR. All other files, including constituent files within the .tar.gz archives, can be opened in the open-source R statistical computing environment. Alternatively, .csv files may also be read in any simple text editor software or Microsoft Excel. Geospatial files including .shp and .tif files can also be opened in GIS software, such as QGIS (open-source) or ESRI ArcGIS (proprietary). The .pdf Data User Guide can be read with Adobe Acrobat Reader or other compatible readers.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

Large-Scale Trajectory Analysis via Feature Vectors

The explosion of both sensors and GPS-enabled devices has resulted in position/time data being the next big frontier for data analytics. However, many of the problems associated with large numbers of trajectories do not necessarily have an analog with many of the historic big-data applications such as text and image analysis. Modern trajectory analytics exploits much of the cutting-edge research in machine-learning, statistics, computational geometry and other disciplines. We will show that for doing trajectory analytics at scale, it is necessary to fundamentally change the way the information is represented through a feature-vector approach. We then demonstrate the ability to solve large trajectory analytics problems using this representation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characterizing the Uncertainty of Measurement of Traceable Isotope Ratios with Bayesian Statistical Techniques

Analytical techniques such as multicollector—inductively coupled plasma—mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) are routinely employed at SRNL, other National Laboratories, and in academia to determine the precise isotopic composition of diverse natural and anthropogenic samples (e.g., rocks and nuclear materials). Quantifying and reporting uncertainty in such analyses, while regularly performed, have a rigorous statistical foundation. The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement 4 (GUM) outlines conventional techniques used to assess such uncertainty. As the accessibility and speed of statistical computing increase, there is a need to modernize conventional techniques. For example, Supplement 1 to the 3rd to the GUM suggests the use of approximation methods as an updated approach to the GUM.

McLarty, Ellis C.↗