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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis for "Dilution Region" Events: Issues and Operational Approaches

An important activity within Space Traffic Management is the detection and prevention of possible on-orbit collisions between space objects. The principal parameter for assessing collision likelihood is the probability of collision, which is widely accepted among conjunction assessment practitioners; but it possesses a known deficiency in that it can produce a false sense of safety when the orbital position uncertainties for the conjuncting objects are high. The probability of collision is said to be “diluted” in such a situation and to understate the possible risk; certain approaches have been recommended by researchers to provide (largely conservative) risk estimates and remediation methodologies in these cases. The present analysis explores two of the main proposals for quantifying and remediating possible risk in the dilution region and quantifies their operational implications. These implications with regard to imputed additional workload are considerable, especially in anticipating the conjunction event levels expected with the deployment of the USAF Space Fence radar. This effort has been undertaken as part of a larger enterprise that seeks to clarify the philosophical and statistical underpinnings of the conjunction risk assessment process. The analysis presented herein argues that a form of hypothesis testing is implicitly used in conjunction assessment risk analysis, and that there are a number of conceptual and practical reasons for constructing the associated null hypothesis to counsel against a satellite conjunction remediation action. In short, it is concluded that, for the purposes of determining whether a conjunction remediation action should be pursued, dilution-region probabilities of collision should be treated no differently from those produced under other circumstances.

Probability of collision↗
NASA NTRS2014

Use of the NetBeans Platform for NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

The latest Java and JavaFX technologies are very attractive software platforms for customers involved in space mission operations such as those of NASA and the US Air Force. For NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA), the NetBeans platform provided an environment in which scalable software solutions could be developed quickly and efficiently. Both Java 8 and the NetBeans platform are in the process of simplifying CARA development in secure environments by providing a significant amount of capability in a single accredited package, where accreditation alone can account for 6-8 months for each library or software application. Capabilities either in use or being investigated by CARA include: 2D and 3D displays with JavaFX, parallelization with the new Streams API, and scalability through the NetBeans plugin architecture.

assessment↗
NASA NTRS2015

Constellation Mission Operation Working Group: ESMO Maneuver Planning Process Review

The Earth Science Mission Operation (ESMO) Project created an Independent Review Board to review our Conjunction Risk evaluation process and Maneuver Planning Process to identify improvements that safely manages mission conjunction risks, maintains ground track science requirements, and minimizes overall hours expended on High Interest Events (HIE). The Review Board is evaluating the current maneuver process which requires support by multiple groups. In the past year, there have been several changes to the processes although many prior and new concerns exist. This presentation will discuss maneuver process reviews and Board comments, ESMO assessment and path foward, ESMO future plans, recent changes and concerns.

maneuver↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) Ground Systems, Software and Operations Infrastructure Cloud Implementation

The growing number of large-scale constellations and the improvements made in the tracking and detection of resident space objects have contributed to the increase of satellite conjunction events. As a result of the increase of objects in Earth orbit, the timeline for risk analysis computations for satellite collision avoidance is more urgent when conjunctions occur. It is imperative NASA maintains a space environment safety functionality for the agency that allows CARA remote access to the ground system while maintaining redundancy. CARA’s On-premises (On-prem) ground system would no longer be able to meet these access and redundancy requirements, hence the investigation and eventual implementation of a Cloud-based ground station infrastructure as a viable solution. This paper will provide an overview of the principal parts of the Conjunction Assessment (CA) risk analysis process used at CARA, summarize the key drivers towards the Cloud solution, and share key lessons learned that are significant for any operational entity considering a cloud solution for real-time satellite operations to ensure a sustainable space traffic environment for all.

Sustainability↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Non-Gaussian Error Volumes on Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

An understanding of how an initially Gaussian error volume becomes non-Gaussian over time is an important consideration for space-vehicle conjunction assessment. Traditional assumptions applied to the error volume artificially suppress the true non-Gaussian nature of the space-vehicle position uncertainties. For typical conjunction assessment objects, representation of the error volume by a state error covariance matrix in a Cartesian reference frame is a more significant limitation than is the assumption of linearized dynamics for propagating the error volume. In this study, the impact of each assumption is examined and isolated for each point in the volume. Limitations arising from representing the error volume in a Cartesian reference frame is corrected by employing a Monte Carlo approach to probability of collision (Pc), using equinoctial samples from the Cartesian position covariance at the time of closest approach (TCA) between the pair of space objects. A set of actual, higher risk (Pc >= 10 (exp -4)+) conjunction events in various low-Earth orbits using Monte Carlo methods are analyzed. The impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on Pc for these cases is minimal, even when the deviation from a Gaussian distribution is significant.

Ghrist, Richard W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Materials for short course. This briefing from NASA is one segment of a larger 3-day course being presented by multiple entities.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Satellite Conjunction Assessment, Risk Analysis and Collision Avoidance Best Practices: The History, Evolution and Opportunities

Since Explorer 1 was launched on January 31, 1958, the United States (U.S.) has reaped the benefits of space exploration. New markets and new technologies have spurred the economy and changed lives in many ways across the national security, civil, and commercial sectors. Space technologies and space-based capabilities now provide global communications, navigation and timing, weather forecasting, and more. Space exploration also presents challenges that impact not only the U.S. but also its allies and other partners. A significant increase in the volume and diversity of activity in space means that it is becoming increasingly congested. Emerging commercial ventures such as satellite servicing, in-space manufacturing, and tourism as well as new technologies enabling small satellites and large constellations of satellites present serious challenges for safely and responsibly using space in a stable, sustainable manner. To meet these challenges, the U.S. seeks to improve global awareness of activity in space by publicly sharing flight safety-related information and by coordinating its own on-orbit activity in a safer, more responsible manner. It seeks to bolster stability and reduce current and future operational on-orbit risks so that space is sustained for future generations. To this end, new and better Space Situational Awareness (SSA) capabilities are needed to keep pace with the increased congestion, and the U.S. seeks to create a dynamic environment that encourages and rewards commercial providers who improve these capabilities. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook reflects how NASA currently operates, which has evolved over time. Consideration is given to important topics such as spacecraft and constellation design; spacecraft “trackability;” pre-launch preparation and early launch activities; on-orbit collision avoidance; and automated trajectory guidance and maneuvering. This talk aims to present examples of responsible practices for spacecraft Owners/Operators (O/O) to consider for lowering collision risks and operating safely in space (from LEO and beyond) in a stable and sustainable manner. As technology and innovation continues to improve upon existing capabilities, what kind of new challenges are presented in the SSA community? Can space exploration and commercial ventures thrive while keeping paramount the safety and protection of the space environment? What are the challenges and opportunities that need to be addressed and considered for space situational awareness in Cis-Lunar Space? It may prove useful for entities offering, or intending to offer, SSA or Conjunction Assessment (CA) services to consider such examples of responsible practices to protect the space environment for future use by all.

Collision Avoidance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Setting the Bar for the Replacement of the Probability of Collision Metric

Recent research in satellite conjunction risk assessment has levelled a number of criticisms at the probability of collision (Pc) parameter as a durable statement of satellite collision likelihood, and a number of different alternatives to this calculation have been proposed. Many of these proposals, however, stop at the outlining of the theory and do not discuss the additional philosophical and practical issues that must be confronted in evaluating such proposals for adoption. The present work seeks to outline some of these philosophical and practical considerations, and therefore the kinds of analyses and profiling that will be needed before the Pc, which is at present nearly universally adopted in the conjunction risk mitigation community, can be replaced with a new (and superior) paradigm and associated metric.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2017

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Hejduk, M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OSIRIS-REx Screening Experience & Lessons Learned

On September 24, 2023, the NASA OSIRIS-REx spacecraft returned a sample of asteroid Bennu, approaching on a hyperbolic impact trajectory relative to Earth. At approximately 108,000 km altitude and four hours prior to hitting the top of the atmosphere, the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) separated from the spacecraft bus, targeting the Utah Test and Training Range. Twenty minutes later, the bus performed a large divert maneuver to fly by at a perigee altitude of ~780 km. Given the immense scientific value of the sample, substantial efforts were undertaken by NASA CARA and the OSIRIS-REx mission to ensure safe passage of the objects from GEO through LEO. This presentation provides an overview of collision avoidance maneuver (CAM) options, results of screenings, coordination with DoD for contingency observations, and lessons learned for screening future Earth flyby and entry trajectories. Two particular challenges included screening two objects using a much larger than normal 250 km spherical monitor volume and decision planning for a single CAM while the SRC was still attached that would alter both trajectories. The larger, non-standard screening volume resulted in custom procedures that CARA personnel had to run manually for each screening, and the initial long propagation times while the objects were more than a week out required significant computing resources. With a single CAM opportunity at 13 hours out, the decision to execute a maneuver had to consider the risk to both objects, where one could imagine a situation where the maneuver would clear a high-risk conjunction for one object and introduce one for the other – begging the question of relative risk posture between the SRC and bus. These among other unique aspects of Earth flyby and entry missions led to novel planning and implementation procedures to support future missions of this type.

Dolan E. Highsmith↗