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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Consequence Based Framework for Deployment of Cloud Solutions in the Digital Energy Transition

This study proposes a framework for evaluating cloud computing deployment in the electric sector, focusing on the digital transition of energy systems. It assesses the implications of cloud technology adoption, particularly in terms of security, operational resilience, and efficiency. The paper introduces a method for consequence-driven risk analysis, enabling utilities to prioritize and mitigate potential threats effectively. It also discusses the shared responsibility model in cloud computing, highlighting the need for collaborative security efforts. The research aims to provide utilities with a strategic assessment tool for cloud adoption, emphasizing the importance of security culture in enhancing cloud computing's role in critical infrastructure.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Tool for the Risk-Informed Management of Critical Mission Resilience

We describe a methodology and tool for the risk-informed management and planning of mission resilience. By mapping concepts of resilience onto the elements of a streamlined risk model we are able to tap the substantial portfolio of established risk concepts to provide rapid insights in the evaluation and high-level screening of prospective resilience enhancement measures. This provides a risk-informed, levelized basis for the comparison of disparate resilience solutions and the means of establishing preferences. The methodology begins with identification of critical missions met by a site, and establishment of the supporting physical assets. Scenarios that would result in failure of these assets are systematically identified. Each scenario comprises three elements: realization of a hazard or threat resulting in loss of resources (the current focus being on power, natural gas, and water) to the asset, failure of measures in place to protect the asset against those losses, and realization of the consequent impacts. These scenarios are quantified in terms of their probabilities of occurrence and the magnitude of the resultant consequences (mission outage time), allowing risk-prioritization to focus resilience enhancement considerations. What-If? analyses are conducted through adjusting elements of the risk calculation to reflect the deployment of prospective resilience measures, by which means the efficacies of each of those measures can be compared using common risk metrics across diverse resilience strategies. This paper will also describe the insights from example applications.

resilience, risk, risk assesment, energy, water↗
DOE OSTI2022

FIC Consequence Profile - Hypothetical Cybercrime Syndicate Adversary Dossier

The FIC team has engaged PNNL’s Shamrock Cyber team to produce this Consequence Profile. This Consequence Profile is an Adversary Dossier, which provides the foundation for a thorough understanding of unacceptable mission outcomes, and the threats and vulnerabilities that make these outcomes plausible. The dossier helps stakeholders and development teams understand each other’s viewpoints. It also provides a means for reducing overall risk by prioritizing threats and vulnerabilities based on unacceptable outcomes. The Consequence Profile can be used as is, or as content to inform other reports tailored to a specific audience. It is intended to enable decision makers at all levels to improve the security posture of the system.

Beaman, Jacob E.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Criticality Analysis of a Water Distribution System Considering Both Economic Consequences and Hydraulic Loss Using Modern Portfolio Theory

This study introduces an approach using Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) to consider hydraulic resilience and economic consequence resilience of a water distribution system (WDS) to identify critical assets. ECLIPS (Economic Consequence Linked to Interruption in Providing Service), a way to represent loss of water provision as economic loss, is used to measure economic consequence following a reduction of WDS functionality. The approach is demonstrated using a hypothetical WDS and tested for pipe breakage and replacement scenarios using EPANET hydraulic simulations. First, the correlation between hydraulic resilience and economic consequence resilience was investigated to assess differences between two resilience measures for identifying pipe’s criticality for replacement. The results confirmed the two resilience measures exhibited differing responses (covariance = 0.2), suggesting that use of both would provide complementary insight. Results of the MPT analysis identified the benefits of balancing hydraulic and economic consequence resilience measures to yield lower risk. This study provides a practical approach to incorporate economic consequence into planning, design, and research applications identifying critical WDS assets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Consequence Based Framework for Deployment of Cloud Solutions in the Digital Energy Transition

This study proposes a framework for evaluating cloud computing deployment in the electric sector, focusing on the digital transition of energy systems. It assesses the implications of cloud technology adoption, particularly in terms of security, operational resilience, and efficiency. The paper introduces a framework for consequence-driven applied risk analysis, enabling utilities to prioritize and mitigate potential threats effectively, and responsibly deploy cloud applications. It also discusses the shared responsibility model in cloud computing, highlighting the need for collaborative security efforts. The research aims to provide utilities with a strategic assessment tool for cloud adoption, emphasizing the importance of security culture in enhancing cloud computing's role in critical infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Consensus Modeling for Prediction of Estrogenic Activity of Ingredients Commonly Used in Sunscreen Products

Sunscreen products are predominantly regulated as over-the-counter (OTC) drugs by the US FDA. The “active” ingredients function as ultraviolet filters. Once a sunscreen product is generally recognized as safe and effective (GRASE) via an OTC drug review process, new formulations using these ingredients do not require FDA review and approval, however, the majority of ingredients have never been tested to uncover any potential endocrine activity and their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor (ER) is unknown, despite the fact that this is a very extensively studied target related to endocrine activity. Consequently, we have developed an in silico model to prioritize single ingredient estrogen receptor activity for use when actual animal data are inadequate, equivocal, or absent. It relies on consensus modeling to qualitatively and quantitatively predict ER binding activity. As proof of concept, the model was applied to ingredients commonly used in sunscreen products worldwide and a few reference chemicals. Of the 32 chemicals with unknown ER binding activity that were evaluated, seven were predicted to be active estrogenic compounds. Five of the seven were confirmed by the published data. Further experimental data is needed to confirm the other two predictions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the Los Alamos Nuclear Material Packaging Risk Ranking Method

Repackaging nuclear material into robust containers to protect workers and the public has been ongoing at LANL and around the DOE complex for nearly two decades. The number of containers at LANL is around 5,000; limited resources for repackaging material has led to extended repackaging campaigns and the need to prioritize repackaging. Various methodologies have been used to prioritize the repackaging efforts and to demonstrate progress in risk reduction over time (e.g., Boerigter, 1997). The 2000-1 DNFSB recommendation recognized the limited DOE resources for repackaging, and acknowledged the need to “prioritize and schedule tasks to be undertaken with available funds according to consideration of risks.” Later, in DNFSB recommendation 2005-1, in addition to recommending that DOE develop a packaging standard, the Board recommended that “Characterization information should also be used to develop a surveillance program prioritized according to expected material and container risk (including, for example, material type, material form, and the age and type of container).” In response to requests and recommendations from the DOE and DNSFB to prioritize according to worker risk, a risk ranking method based on the potential consequence of dropping a container from 3 meters was developed in 2007 (Smith, 2007) and updated in 2014 (Hoffman, 2014). Various LANL implementation plans for repackaging were developed over the years using this methodology (Stone, 2014). Currently, this method is utilized in conjunction with an algorithm to mitigate programmatic risk to prioritize container repackaging and material processing (Prochnow, 2015). The purpose of this study is to document how the current risk ranking method works, how it is used and potential limitations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers

Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. It also presents a rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires and fire exclusion in fire–dependent ecosystems. As an ecological process, fire integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social and geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields and scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity of ways in which fire operates as a fundamental ecological and evolutionary process on Earth. We explore research priorities in six categories of fire ecology: (a) characteristics of fire regimes, (b) changing fire regimes, (c) fire effects on above–ground ecology, (d) fire effects on below–ground ecology, (e) fire behaviour and (f) fire ecology modelling. We identify three emergent themes: the need to study fire across temporal scales, to assess the mechanisms underlying a variety of ecological feedbacks involving fire and to improve representation of fire in a range of modelling contexts. As fire regimes and our relationships with fire continue to change, prioritizing these research areas will facilitate understanding of the ecological causes and consequences of future fires and rethinking fire management alternatives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Information Template for Evaluating the Relative Priority of Remediation Projects that Pose a Risk to Receptors - 18674

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has one of the largest remediation tasks in the world, in terms of the number of sites, the complexity of individual sites, the number of remediation projects at individual sites, and the full range of stakeholders involved. The question of how to decide what projects to initiate, at any point of time and how to prioritize the deployment of resources for these tasks, occurs both within and among sites. The Consortium for Risk Evaluation developed a Risk-informed Prioritization Framework for Oak Ridge Reservation. Our goal was to develop a risk-informed methodology for prioritizing remediation projects for the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation that can be adapted to other remediation projects elsewhere. The heart of the framework is a template that includes information about each site necessary to make prioritization decisions. The information in the template describes the environment (hazard, pathway, consequences), the receptors (workers, public, ecological) and the risk management considerations (cost, risk reduction effectiveness, capacity, efficiency and sequencing). The questions in the template provide a wide range of information that managers and regulators need to make decisions, and that Tribes and the public need to evaluate the efficacy of remediation decisions. Completing the template will also help identify data gaps, model parameters needed, and the agencies or individuals responsible for obtaining the information. The information presented in the Template will be useful for regulators (DOE, Environmental Protection Agency, states, Tribes), managers and workers at the sites, trustees of natural resources, site neighbors, and the general public, but more importantly, provides an example of information needed to rate the priority of remediation projects. DOE, other federal and state trustees, and regulators were included in all phases of the development, including the scope, overseeing its development, and evaluation of projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

LDRD23-0184: Resilience and Hazard Risk Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI)

Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Building a Just Transition to a Sustainable Energy Future

Residential and commercial buildings consume roughly 74% of U.S. electricity and are responsible for approximately 35% of carbon emissions. As a result, there is no pathway to a sustainable energy future that does not prioritize a transformation in how we use, store, and generate energy in our nation’s buildings. Consequently, the importance and timeliness of research, development, demonstration, and deployment of clean energy building technologies is more pressing than ever. However, inequities that permeate society are acutely prevalent in the energy economy, particularly in the buildings sector. Therefore, as we transition to a sustainable energy future, we should prioritize a “just transition,” where we ensure the benefits, as well as costs, are more equitably distributed. As a scientific and technical community, we should take the lead in centering equity in clean energy technology innovation by permeating equity throughout the RDD&D spectrum. This talk will discuss pathways to achieving a just transition toward a sustainable energy future. It will highlight current Department of Energy and national laboratory RDD&D efforts that advance clean energy goals. The talk will conclude by challenging the ASME community to look through a lens of equity that prioritizes an equitable distribution of benefits and costs for our sustainable energy future.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Safety and Security Defense-in-Depth for Nuclear Power Plants

This report describes the risk-informed technical elements that will contribute to a defense-in-depth assessment for cybersecurity. Risk-informed cybersecurity must leverage the technical elements of a risk-informed approach appropriately in order to evaluate cybersecurity risk insights. HAZCADS and HAZOP+ are suitable methodologies to model the connection between digital harm and process hazards. Risk assessment modeling needs to be expanded beyond HAZCADS and HAZOP+ to consider the sequence of events that lead to plant consequences. Leveraging current practices in PRA can lead to categorization of digital assets and prioritizing digital assets commensurate with the risk. Ultimately, the culmination of cyber hazard methodologies, event sequence modeling, and digital asset categorization will facilitate a defense-in-depth assessment of cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Securing Digital Energy Infrastructure: Procurement, Contracting, and Supply Chain Risk Management Guidance

Recognizing the scale of this industry challenge, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Deployment Office (GDO) and Cybersecurity Energy Security & Emergency Response office have launched a multi-year BESS supply chain security initiative to identify consequence-driven approaches to addressing BESS supply chain security and provide resources to support prioritization of supply chain security efforts associated with the procurement of BESS equipment and services. This guide is one element of the supporting resources to be provided and sets forth a framework and guidance for procurement bidding, selection, risk analysis, and agreements stakeholders can implement to mitigate cybersecurity risks across the entirety of battery system component ecosystem, including the interconnected software and hardware required for control and monitoring BESSs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Shifts in historical streamflow extremes in the Colorado River Basin

The global phenomenon of climate change-induced shifts in precipitation leading to "wet regions getting wetter" and "dry regions getting drier" has been widely studied. However, the propagation of these changes in atmospheric moisture within stream channels is not a direct relationship due to differences in the timing of how changing precipitation patterns interact with various land surfaces. Streamflow is of particular interest in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the region’s rapidly growing population, projected temperature increases that are expected to be higher than elsewhere in the contiguous United States, and subsequent climate-driven disturbances including drought, vegetation mortality, and wildfire, which makes the region more vulnerable to changes in hydrologic extremes. Here in this study, we determine how streamflow extremes have shifted in the CRB using two statistical methods—the Mann-Kendall trend detection analysis and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theorem. We evaluate these changes in the context of key flow metrics that include high and low flow percentiles, maximum and minimum 7-day flows, and the center timing of streamflow using historical gage records representative of natural flows. Monthly results indicate declines of up to 41% for high and low flows during the June to July peak runoff season, while increases of up to 24% were observed earlier from March to April. Finally, our results highlight a key threshold elevation and latitude of 2300 m and 39° North, respectively, where there is a distinct shift in the trend. The spatiotemporal patterns observed are indicative of changing snowmelt patterns as a primary cause of the shifts. Identification of how this change varies spatially has consequences for improved land management strategies, as specific regions most vulnerable to threats can be prioritized for mitigation or adaptation as the climate warms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of Advanced Signal Processing Techniques to Improve Detection and Identification of Embedded Defects

By the end of 1996, 109 Nuclear Power Plants were operating in the United States, producing 22% of the Nation’s electricity [1]. At present, more than two thirds of these power plants are more than 40 years old. The purpose of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is to develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the operating lifetimes of nuclear power plants (NPPs) beyond 60 years [2]. The most important safety structures in an NPP are constructed of concrete. The structures generally do not allow for destructive evaluation and access is limited to one side of the concrete element. Therefore, there is a need for techniques and technologies that can assess the internal health of complex, reinforced concrete structures nondestructively. Previously, we documented the challenges associated with Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) of thick, reinforced concrete sections and prioritized conceptual designs of specimens that could be fabricated to represent NPP concrete structures [3]. Consequently, a 7 feet tall, by 7 feet wide, by 3 feet and 4-inch-thick concrete specimen was constructed with 2.257-inch-and 1-inch-diameter rebar every 6 to 12 inches. In addition, defects were embedded the specimen to assess the performance of existing and future NDE techniques. The defects were designed to give a mix of realistic and controlled defects for assessment of the necessary measures needed to overcome the challenges with more heavily reinforced concrete structures. Information on the embedded defects is documented in [4]. We also documented the superiority of Frequency Banded Decomposition (FBD) Synthetic Aperture Focusing Technique (SAFT) over conventional SAFT when probing defects under deep concrete cover. Improvements include seeing an intensity corresponding to a defect that is either not visible at all in regular, full frequency content SAFT, or an improvement in contrast over conventional SAFT reconstructed images. This report documents our efforts in four fronts: 1) Comparative study between traditional SAFT and FBD SAFT for concrete specimen with and without Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR) damage, 2) improvement of our Model-Based Iterative Reconstruction (MBIR) for thick reinforced concrete [5], 3) development of a universal framework for sharing, reconstruction, and visualization of ultrasound NDE datasets, and 4) application of machine learning techniques for automated detection of ASR inside concrete. Our comparative study between FBD and traditional SAFT reconstruction images shows a clear difference between images of ASR and non-ASR specimens. In particular, the left first harmonic shows an increased contrast and sensitivity to ASR damage. For MBIR, we show the superiority of model-based techniques over delay and sum techniques such as SAFT. Improvements include elimination of artifacts caused by direct arrival signals, and increased contrast and Signal to Noise Ratio. For the universal framework, we document a format for data storage based on the HDF5 file format, and also propose a modular Graphic User Interface (GUI) for easy customization of data conversion, reconstruction, and visualization routines. Finally, two techniques for ASR automated detection are presented. The first technique is based on an analysis of the frequency content using Hilbert Transform Indicator (HTI) and the second technique employees Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques for training and classification of ultrasound data as ASR or non-ASR damaged classes. The ANN technique shows great potential with classification accuracy above 95%. These approaches are extensible to the detection of additional reinforced, thick concrete defects and damage.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Practical Guidance on Accessing and Using the Data

End-use load profiles (EULP), which quantify how and when energy is used, are critically important to utilities, public utility commissions, state energy offices, and other stakeholders. Applications of EULPs focus on understanding how efficiency, demand response, and other distributed energy resources are valued and used in R&D prioritization, utility resource and distribution system planning, and state and local energy planning and regulations. Consequently, high-quality EULPs are critical for widespread adoption of electrification, demand flexibility, and grid-interactive efficient buildings. For example, EULPs can be used to forecast energy savings in buildings or to identify energy using activities that can be shifted to different times of the day.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Applications of Measuring and Valuing Resilience in Energy Systems

The electricity sector is vulnerable to numerous hazards that are being exacerbated by climate change, which can cause an increase in the hazards' frequency and intensity. Consumers, system regulators, system operators, and communities are now preparing to mitigate the increased risks posed by climate change. New York State's energy infrastructure resilience can be increased with targeted investments including but not limited to installing emergency backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, increasing energy efficiency, adding redundancy, investing in restoration and recovery, and hardening critical components. Such investments can reduce the likelihood, impact, and consequences of disruptive events but can also increase capital and operating costs. A barrier to prioritizing investments in resilience is that there is no widely established method for quantifying and assigning the benefits of resilience investments across various stakeholders. Decision-makers need better information detailing the value of resilience improvements. Developing methods to quantify, value, and price resilience helps meet resilience needs in an effective manner that also supports broader societal welfare. This report lays out considerations for quantifying and valuing resilience, discusses the current state of resilience valuation tools, and provides case studies of resilience projects that demonstrate how resilience attributes could be measured while highlighting broader, project-specific challenges to increasing resilience. Further, we present insights into methods and challenges to measuring, valuing, and enacting resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗