Security Constrained Uncertainty Interval Estimation using Sensitivity Trajectories in Dynamical Systems
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Choi, Hyungjin↗
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An Empirical Quantile Estimation Approach for Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems
We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances.
Applied Probability↗
Cosmogenic activation of silicon
In the production of 3 H, 7 Be, and 22 Na by interactions of cosmic-ray particles with silicon can produce radioactive backgrounds in detectors used to search for rare events. Through controlled irradiation of silicon CCDs and wafers with a neutron beam that mimics the cosmic-ray neutron spectrum, followed by direct counting, we determined that the production rate from cosmic-ray neutrons at sea level is (112 ± 24) atoms/( kg day ) for 3 H, (8.1 ± 1.9) atoms/( kg day ) for 7 Be, and (43.0 ± 7.2) atoms/( kg day ) for 22 Na . Complementing these results with the current best estimates of activation cross sections for cosmic-ray particles other than neutrons, we obtain a total sea-level cosmic-ray production rate of (124 ± 25) atoms/(kg day) for 3 H, (9.4 ± 2.0) atoms/( kg day ) for 7 Be, and (49.6 ± 7.4) atoms/( kg day ) for 22 Na. These measurements will help constrain background estimates and determine the maximum time that silicon-based detectors can remain unshielded during detector fabrication before cosmogenic backgrounds impact the sensitivity of next-generation rare-event searches.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
On the Solution of ℓ 0 -Constrained Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation Problems
The sparse inverse covariance matrix is used to model conditional dependencies between variables in a graphical model to fit a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Estimating the matrix from data are well known to be computationally expensive for large-scale problems. Sparsity is employed to handle noise in the data and to promote interpretability of a learning model. Although the use of a convex ℓ 1 regularizer to encourage sparsity is common practice, the combinatorial ℓ 0 penalty often has more favorable statistical properties. In this paper, we directly constrain sparsity by specifying a maximally allowable number of nonzeros, in other words, by imposing an ℓ 0 constraint. Here, we introduce an efficient approximate Newton algorithm using warm starts for solving the nonconvex ℓ 0 -constrained inverse covariance learning problem. Numerical experiments on standard data sets show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.
$\ell_0$-Constrained↗
Thermodynamically constrained retrieval algorithm to estimate subpixel fire properties
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Zhang, Chenchong↗
BB-CVXOPT: Basic Block Execution Count Estimation and Extrapolation using Constrained Convex Optimization
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Basic Block, Convex Optimization, Performance Pred↗
K in an Urban World: New Contexts for Hydraulic Conductivity
Abstract Hydraulic conductivity ( K ) is a key hydrologic parameter widely recognized to be difficult to estimate and constrain, with little consistent assessment in disturbed, urbanized soils. To estimate K , it is either measured, or simulated by pedotransfer functions, which relate K to easily measured soil properties. We measured K in urbanized soils by double‐ring infiltrometer ( K dring ), near‐saturated tension infiltrometry ( K minidisk ), and constant head borehole permeametry ( K borehole ), along with other soil properties across the major soil orders in 12 United States cities. We compared measured K with that predicted from the pedotransfer function, ROSETTA. We found that regardless of soil texture, K dring was consistently larger than K minidisk ; with the latter having slightly less sample variance. K borehole was dependent upon specific subsurface conditions, and contrary to common expectations, did not always decrease with depth. Based on either soil textural class, or percent textural separates (sand, silt clay), ROSETTA did not accurately predict measured K for surface nor subsurface soils. We go on to discuss how K varies in urban landscapes, the role of measurement methods and artifacts in the perception of this metric, and implications for hydrologic modeling. Overall, we aim to inspire consistency and coherence when addressing K ‐related challenges in sustainable urban water management.
Shuster, W. D.↗
Availability Estimates of Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity (LDE)
This dataset accompanies the report "Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity", which provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) resource in the United States under scenarios with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetrations. The analysis also estimates supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. The estimated LDE resource could be used for various applications that value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors, including electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. The analysis accompanying this dataset was performed in 2018-2019 to support an analysis of "The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States" ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/77610.pdf ). This dataset includes the quantity of estimated LDE resource for each hour of the year in 2050, aggregated to both the national level and the ReEDS balancing area level. As described in the accompanying report, the ReEDS model was used to project the evolution of the power sector over time. Links to the mapping of ReEDS balancing areas to states and ReEDS balancing area shape files are provided. This dataset also includes the report figure data.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Physics-constrained deep neural network method for estimating parameters in a redox flow battery
Here, in this paper, we present a physics-constrained deep neural network (PCDNN) method for parameter estimation in the zero-dimensional (0D) model of the vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB). In this approach, we use deep neural networks to approximate the model parameters as functions of the operating conditions. This method allows the integration of VRFB computational models as the physical constraints in the parameter learning process, leading to enhanced accuracy of parameter estimation and cell voltage prediction. Using an experimental dataset, we demonstrate that the PCDNN method can estimate model parameters for a range of operating conditions and improve the 0D model prediction of voltage compared to the 0D model prediction with constant operation-condition-independent parameters estimated with traditional inverse methods. We also demonstrate that the PCDNN approach has an improved generalization ability for estimating parameter values for operating conditions not used in the training process.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
The acidity of atmospheric particles and clouds
Acidity, defined as pH, is a central component of aqueous chemistry. In the atmosphere, the acidity of condensed phases (aerosol particles, cloud water, and fog droplets) governs the phase partitioning of semivolatile gases such as HNO 3 , NH 3 , HCl, and organic acids and bases as well as chemical reaction rates. It has implications for the atmospheric lifetime of pollutants, deposition, and human health. Despite its fundamental role in atmospheric processes, only recently has this field seen a growth in the number of studies on particle acidity. Even with this growth, many fine-particle pH estimates must be based on thermodynamic model calculations since no operational techniques exist for direct measurements. Current information indicates acidic fine particles are ubiquitous, but observationally constrained pH estimates are limited in spatial and temporal coverage. Clouds and fogs are also generally acidic, but to a lesser degree than particles, and have a range of pH that is quite sensitive to anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, as well as ambient ammonia. Historical measurements indicate that cloud and fog droplet pH has changed in recent decades in response to controls on anthropogenic emissions, while the limited trend data for aerosol particles indicate acidity may be relatively constant due to the semivolatile nature of the key acids and bases and buffering in particles. This paper reviews and synthesizes the current state of knowledge on the acidity of atmospheric condensed phases, specifically particles and cloud droplets. It includes recommendations for estimating acidity and pH, standard nomenclature, a synthesis of current pH estimates based on observations, and new model calculations on the local and global scale.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A semi-supervised learning method to produce explainable radioisotope proportion estimates for NaI-based synthetic and measured gamma spectra
Quantifying the radioactive sources present in gamma spectra is an ever-present and growing national security mission and a time-consuming process for human analysts. While machine learning models exist that are trained to estimate radioisotope proportions in gamma spectra, few address the eventual need to provide explanatory outputs beyond the estimation task. In this work, we develop two machine learning models for a NaI detector measurements: one to perform the estimation task, and the other to characterize the first model’s ability to provide reasonable estimates. To ensure the first model exhibits a behavior that can be characterized by the second model, the first model is trained using a custom, semi-supervised loss function which constrains proportion estimates to be explainable in terms of a spectral reconstruction. The second auxiliary model is an out-of-distribution detection function (a type of meta-model) leveraging the proportion estimates of the first model to identify when a spectrum is sufficiently unique from the training domain and thus is out-of-scope for the model. In demonstrating the efficacy of this approach, we encourage the use of meta-models to better explain ML outputs used in radiation detection and increase trust.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Constraining accuracy of the pairwise velocities in N -body simulations using scale-free models
We present a continuation of an analysis that aims to quantify resolution of N-body simulations by exploiting large (up to N = 4096 3 ) simulations of scale-free cosmologies run using abacus. Here, we focus on radial pairwise velocities of the matter field, both by direct estimation and through the cumulative two-point correlation function (using the pair conservation equation). We find that convergence at the 1 per cent level of the mean relative pairwise velocity can be demonstrated over a range of scales, evolving from a few times the grid spacing at early times to slightly below this scale at late times. We show the analysis of two different box sizes as well as from averaging results from the smaller boxes, and compare the power of the two aforementioned estimators in constraining accuracy at each scale. Down to scales of the order of the smoothing parameter, convergence is obtained at ∼5 per cent precision, and shows a behaviour indicating asymptotic stable clustering. In conclusion, we also infer for LCDM simulations conservative estimates on the evolution of the lower cut-off to resolution (at 1 and 5 per cent precision) as a function of redshift.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Modeling the small-scale deposition of snow onto structured Arctic sea ice during a MOSAiC storm using snowBedFoam 1.0.
The remoteness and extreme conditions of the Arctic make it a very difficult environment to investigate. In these polar regions covered by sea ice, the wind is relatively strong due to the absence of obstructions and redistributes a large part of the deposited snow mass, which complicates estimates for precipitation hardly distinguishable from blowing or drifting snow. Moreover, the snow mass balance in the sea ice system is still poorly understood, notably due to the complex structure of its surface. Quantitatively assessing the snow distribution on sea ice and its connection to the sea ice surface features is an important step to remove the snow mass balance uncertainties (i.e., snow transport contribution) in the Arctic environment. In this work we introduce snowBedFoam 1.0., a physics-based snow transport model implemented in the open-source fluid dynamics software OpenFOAM. We combine the numerical simulations with terrestrial laser scan observations of surface dynamics to simulate snow deposition in a MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) sea ice domain with a complicated structure typical for pressure ridges. The results demonstrate that a large fraction of snow accumulates in their vicinity, which compares favorably against scanner measurements. However, the approximations imposed by the numerical framework, together with potential measurement errors (precipitation), give rise to quantitative inaccuracies, which should be addressed in future work. The modeling of snow distribution on sea ice should help to better constrain precipitation estimates and more generally assess and predict snow and ice dynamics in the Arctic.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis
The leaf economic spectrum is a widely-studied axis of plant trait variability that defines a trade-off between leaf longevity and productivity. While this has been investigated at the global scale, where it is robust, and at local scales, where deviations from it are common, it has received less attention at the intermediate scale of PFTs. We investigated whether global leaf economic relationships are also present within the scale of plant functional types (PFTs) commonly used by Earth System models, and the extent to which this global-PFT hierarchy can be used to constrain trait estimates. We developed a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian model that assumes separate means and covariance structures within and across PFTs and fit this model to seven leaf traits from the TRY database related to leaf longevity, morphology, biochemistry, and photosynthetic metabolism. Although patterns of trait covariation were generally consistent with the leaf economic spectrum, we found three approximate tiers to this consistency. Relationships among morphological and biochemical traits (SLA, N, P) were the most robust within and across PFTs, suggesting that covariation in these traits is driven by universal leaf construction trade-offs and stoichiometry. Relationships among metabolic traits (R_d, V_{c,max}, J_max) were slightly less consistent, reflecting in part their much sparser sampling (especially for high-latitude PFTs), but also pointing to more flexible plasticity in plant metabolistm. Finally, relationships involving leaf lifespan were the least consistent, indicating that leaf economic relationships related to leaf lifespan are dominated by across-PFT differences and that within-PFT variation in leaf lifespan is more complex and idiosyncratic. Across all traits, these covariance were an important source of information, as evidenced by the improved imputation accuracy and reduced predictive uncertainty in multivariate models compared to univariate models. Ultimately, our study reaffirms the value of studying not just individual traits but the multivariate trait space and the utility of hierarchical modeling for studying the scale dependence of trait relationships.
biodiversity, ecological modeling, ecology, leaf b↗
Land cover change-induced decline in terrestrial gross primary production over the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016
As one of the most dynamic aspects of global environmental change, land cover change (LCC) has a profound impact on terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, LCC-induced carbon fluxes are still the most uncertain terms in global and regional carbon budgets. Ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) is the total carbon uptake by vegetation through photosynthesis, serving as a major control on ecosystem function and land carbon balance during and after the modification of the land surface. However, accurately capturing LCC-induced GPP changes requires both high-quality land cover data and controlling for variation driven by other environmental factors such as climate. In this study, we comprehensively examined the effects of LCC on annual GPP trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2016 using the USGS National Land Cover Database, a remote sensing-driven ecosystem model, and the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. We designed a series of model experiments to identify LCC effects on GPP by controlling climate effects. During the study period, LCC exerted a strong negative effect on total GPP across the CONUS ([-2.2, -1.8] Tg C yr -2 ), while climate had smaller positive effects ([0.17, 0. 92] Tg C yr -2 ). The LCC-induced reduction of GPP was mainly caused by net forest loss ([-1.98, -1.39] Tg C yr -2 ) and urban expansion ([-2.03, -1.92] Tg C yr -2 ), but was partially offset by increases in crop area ([+0.66, +0.79] Tg C yr -2 ). Ensemble simulations from TRENDY did not capture the strong negative LCC influences on GPP, likely due to limitations of the adopted land use/cover data. Overall, our study provides a novel perspective on LCC-induced GPP changes, which could help to improve our understanding of ecosystem function changes and constrain the estimation of land carbon balance in the context of anthropogenic activity and climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Has Reducing Ship Emissions Brought Forward Global Warming?
Abstract Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm −2 . Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Spurious solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder
Spurious solar-wind effects are a potential noise source in future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) measurements. One noise coupling mechanism is constrained by estimating solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder (LPF). While LISA is designed for drag-free differential measurement, predicting the realistic impact both bounds the operational environment and assesses whether LISA could provide serendipitous space-weather observations. Data from NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), situated at the L1 Lagrange point, serves as a reliable source of solar-wind data. The data sets are compared over the 114 d time period from 1 March 2016 to 23 June 2016. This period gives the longest readily-available open data set, without interference from other commissioning activities. To evaluate space weather effects, the data from both satellites are formatted, gap-filled/interpolated, and fast-Fourier transformed for amplitude spectral density and coherence comparisons. Solar wind effects are not seen in a coherence plot between LPF and ACE; modest coherence in the planned LISA observational frequency band can be attributed to chance. This result indicates that measurable correlation due to solar-wind acceleration noise over 3 month timescales will be a negligible noise source. LISA is unlikely to inform solar wind measurements routinely. Another source of noise from the Sun, solar radiation pressure, is estimated to impart greater acceleration noise, but has yet to be analyzed.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Improving parameterization of ice microphysical processes in Arctic clouds using a synergistic modeling and observational approach (Final Report)
The primary goals of the project were to: 1) Improve the fundamental quantitative models of ice growth processes using ARM radar observations. 2) Better understand the growth of ice particle populations through vapor deposition, riming, and aggregation in Arctic clouds using a new particle-property microphysical model. 3) Robustly estimate and constrain key unknown model parameters using ARM radar observations combined with the particle-property model to develop an improved parameterization of ice growth processes for traditional bulk parameterizations used in cloud and climate models.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗