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DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting long-term stress relaxation on Alloy 709 using the crystal plasticity finite element method

This report summarizes the results of physics-based, crystal plasticity simulations for the long-term stress relaxation behavior of Alloy 709. The purpose of the study was to provide insight into five key questions related to long-term behavior in high temperatures materials which are difficult or impossible to answer experimentally: (1) is there a threshold stress for long-term relaxation? (2) is there strain threshold for relaxation damage, below which significant damage does not accumulate? (3) does damage continue to accumulate as the material relaxes or will damage accumulation plateau under some loading conditions? (4) does stress relaxation loading inevitably lead to failure? and (5) which, if any, engineering models for relaxation damage accumulation reasonably match the simulation results? The report summarizes the numerical simulations used to address these five questions and provides at least partial answers to each question.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-parametric analysis for mixed integer linear programming: An application to transmission upgrade and congestion management

Upgrading the capacity of existing transmission lines is essential for meeting the growing energy demands, facilitating the integration of renewable energy, and ensuring the security of the transmission system. This study focuses on the selection of lines whose capacities and by how much should be expanded from the perspective of the Independent System Operators (ISOs) to minimize the total system cost. We employ advanced multi-parametric programming and an enhanced branch-and-bound algorithm to address complex mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems, considering multi-period time constraints and physical limitations of generators and transmission lines. To characterize the various decisions in transmission expansion, we model the increased capacity of existing lines as parameters within a specified range. This study first relaxes the binary variables to continuous variables and applies the Lagrange method and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to obtain optimal solutions and identify critical regions associated with active and inactive constraints. Moreover, we extend the traditional branch-and-bound (B&B) method by determining the problem’s upper and lower bounds at each node of the B&B decision tree, helping to manage computational challenges in large-scale MILP problems. Here, we compare the difference between the upper and lower bounds to obtain an approximate optimal solution within the decision-makers’ tolerable error range. In addition, the first derivative of the objective function on the parameters of each line is used to inform the selection of lines for easing congestion and maximizing social welfare. Finally, the capacity upgrades are selected by weighing the reductions in system costs against the expense of upgrading line capacities. The findings are supported by numerical simulations and provide transmission-line planners with decision-making guidance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Temperature 2D Optical Relaxation Visualizes Enhanced Oxygen Exchange Kinetics at Metal-Mixed Conducting Oxide Interfaces

Solid-state heterointerfaces are of interest for emergent local behavior that is distinct from either bulk parent compound. One technologically relevant example is the case of mixed ionic/electronic conductor (MIEC)–metal interfaces, which play an important role in electrochemistry. Metal–MIEC composite electrodes can demonstrate improved catalytic activity vs single-phase MIECs, improving fuel cell efficiency. Similarly, MIEC surface reaction kinetics are often evaluated using techniques that place metal current collectors in contact with the surface under evaluation, potentially altering the response vs the native surface. Here, techniques enabling direct and local in situ observation of the behavior at and around such heterointerfaces are needed. Here, we develop a spatially resolved optical transmission relaxation (2D-OTR) method providing continuous evaluation of local, high-temperature, controlled atmosphere defect kinetics across a ~1 cm2 sample area simultaneously in a contact-free manner. We apply it to observe the spatial variance of oxygen incorporation and evolution rates at ~525–620 °C, in response to step changes in oxygen partial pressure, on MIEC SrTi 0.65 Fe 0.35 O 3–x films as a function of distance from porous Pt and Au layers. Using this model geometry, we find significant enhancements in kinetics adjacent to the metals that decay over a few millimeter distance. To extract kinetic parameters, we fit the short-term optical data (initial portion of relaxations) with an exponential decay function appropriate for surface-exchange-limited kinetics, yielding apparent surface exchange coefficients (k chem ) with spatial resolution, decreasing with distance from the metal. To understand the kinetic processes governing the complete (long-term) optical relaxations, we performed COMSOL simulations, which demonstrated that a combination of laterally varying k chem and in-plane diffusion controls the observed kinetics over the full time range. Further support for spatially varying kchem comes from demonstrations of changing surface and bulk chemistry vs distance from the metal–MIEC interface, by X-ray photoelectron and optical absorption spectroscopies, respectively. Although microporous Pt and Au are not excellent electrodes in isolation, both metals exert a synergistic effect on the oxygen surface exchange rate in the presence of the mixed conducting film.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A direct transcription-based multiple shooting formulation for dynamic optimization

The growing need for fast and efficient solution techniques for solving dynamic optimization problems is driven by a broad spectrum of applications in scheduling and control. We suggest a novel framework for dynamic optimization that utilizes a multiple shooting “backbone” with discrete rather than continuous subproblems, thereby eliminating need for repeated time-integration. A Lagrangian relaxation (LR)-based decomposition scheme is proposed, which dualizes the state continuity requirements between subproblems and enables parallel solution of the problem. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on two case studies: the Van der Pol oscillator and a batch reactor.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

AMM: Adaptive Multilinear Meshes

Adaptive representations are increasingly indispensable for reducing the in-memory and on-disk footprints of large-scale data. Usual solutions are designed broadly along two themes: reducing data precision, e.g., through compression, or adapting data resolution, e.g., using spatial hierarchies. Additionally, recent research suggests that combining the two approaches, i.e., adapting both resolution and precision simultaneously, can offer significant gains over using them individually. However, there currently exist no practical solutions to creating and evaluating such representations at scale. In this work, we present a new resolution-precision-adaptive representation to support hybrid data reduction schemes and offer an interface to existing tools and algorithms. Through novelties in spatial hierarchy, our representation, Adaptive Multilinear Meshes (AMM), provides considerable reduction in the mesh size. AMM creates a piecewise multilinear representation of uniformly sampled scalar data and can selectively relax or enforce constraints on conformity, continuity, and coverage, delivering a flexible adaptive representation. AMM also supports representing the function using mixed-precision values to further the achievable gains in data reduction. We describe a practical approach to creating AMM incrementally using arbitrary orderings of data and demonstrate AMM on six types of resolution and precision datastreams. By interfacing with state-of-the-art rendering tools through VTK, we demonstrate the practical and computational advantages of our representation for visualization techniques. With an open-source release of our tool to create AMM, we make such evaluation of data reduction accessible to the community, which we hope will foster new opportunities and future data reduction schemes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

UNRAVEL: A Robust Modular Velocity Dealiasing Technique for Doppler Radar

Unfold Radar Velocity (UNRAVEL) is an open-source modular Doppler velocity dealiasing algorithm for weather radars. UNRAVEL is an algorithm that does not need external reference velocity data, making it easily applicable. The proposed algorithm includes 11 core modules and 2 dealiasing strategies. UNRAVEL is an iterative algorithm. The goal is to build the dealiasing results starting with the strictest possible continuity tests in azimuth and range and, after each step, relaxing the parameters to include more results from a progressively growing number of reference points. UNRAVEL also has modules that perform 3D continuity checks. Thanks to this modular design, the number of dealiasing strategies can be expanded in order to optimize the dealiasing results. While the first driver dealiases Doppler velocity from each tilt independently from one another, the second driver also performs a three-dimensional continuity check of the velocity using successive elevations. The proposed dealiasing algorithm is tested using severe weather data from an S-band Doppler radar that have been aliased to mimic aliased radial velocity patterns that would be observed by a C-band Doppler radar. Artificially aliasing S-band data permits creation of a reference to which the performance of various dealiasing techniques can be compared. Comparisons show that UNRAVEL consistently outperforms other established dealiasing algorithms for the test period selected in this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Antiferromagnetic ordering and possible lattice response to dynamic uranium valence in U 3 O 8

Determining the correct electronic structure of U 3 O 8 remains a formidable experimental and theoretical challenge. In the low-temperature phase, two crystallographic U sites are separated into a distinct 2U(V)+1U(VI) oxidation configuration. At low temperatures, the U(V) sites form a distorted honeycomb lattice, but the U(VI) sit on a triangular sublattice, suggesting potential for magnetic frustration effects. The spin configuration of the unpaired f electrons on the U(V) sites is likely antiferromagnetic (AFM) from susceptibility measurements, but this has not been confirmed. Here in this paper, we present a neutron scattering investigation of the structure and dynamics of U 3 O 8 from 1.7 to 600 K. We confirm static AFM ordering onset at between 22 and 25 K, which is present down to at least 1.7 K with AFM peaks corresponding to [0.5 1 1] and [0.5 2 2] in the orthorhombic phase. These measurements rule out static AFM order along the a axis of the Amm2 phase, a configuration previously suggested by theory. Above 100 K a quasielastic scattering channel opens that we speculate arises from a lattice relaxation response to thermally activated electron hopping. This term does not conform to a magnetic form factor, so it is not related to spin relaxations. If correct, this mechanism stabilizes a continuous valence transition from 2U(V)+1U(VI) in the low-temperature (T<600 K) orthorhombic phase to the hexagonal phase that contains only one degenerate U site, wherein the U valence can be dynamically stabilized between U(V)↔U(VI) by phonon-assisted electron hopping.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

A slip-spring framework to study relaxation dynamics of entangled wormlike micelles with kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm

Hypothesis: Wormlike micelles (WLMs) formed due to the self-assembly of amphiphiles in aqueous solution have similar viscoelastic properties as polymers. Owing to this similarity, in this work, it is postulated that kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) sampling of slip-springs dynamics, which is able to model the rheology of polymers, can also be extended to capture the relaxation dynamics of WLMs. Theory: The proposed modeling framework considers the following relaxation mechanisms: reptation, union-scission, and constraint release. Specifically, each of these relaxation mechanisms is simulated as separate kMC events that capture the relaxation dynamics while considering the living nature of WLMs within the slip-spring framework. As a case study, the model is implemented to a system of sodium oleate and sodium chloride to predict the linear rheology and the characteristic relaxation times associated with the individual relaxation mechanisms at different pH and salt concentrations. Findings: Linear rheology predictions were found to be in good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, the calculated relaxation times highlighted that reptation contributed to a continuous increase in viscosity while union-scission contributed to the decrease in viscosity of WLM solutions at a higher salinity and pH. Finally, this manifests the proposed model’s capability to provide insights into the key processes governing WLM’s rheology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

The nonlinear rheology of complex yield stress foods

Many foods have a yield stress that allows them to retain a desired shape at rest, but transition into a viscous fluid when being served or consumed. The determination of the yield stress of the food dictates how the foods are formed and packaged, how they are served, and how they are perceived when being eaten. Oscillatory shearing provides an ideal test protocol to map the rheology across a range of time and flow strength scales. We couple oscillatory shearing and an iterative recovery procedure to show that the yielding process is a continuous transition for two common yield stress foods. We show that unrecoverable processes from oscillatory tests are equivalent to the steady shear flow behavior. We show that this yielding behavior can be well approximated by a recently published model that treats yield stress materials as continuous viscoelastic fluids with a rate-dependent relaxation time and has parameters that can be obtained from the linear viscoelastic oscillatory frequency sweep and the steady shear flow curve.

Griebler, James J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The role of nonequilibrium LO phonons, Pauli exclusion, and intervalley pathways on the relaxation of hot carriers in InGaAs/InGaAsP multi-quantum-wells

Under continuous-wave laser excitation in a lattice-matched In 0.53 Ga 0.47 As/In 0.8 Ga 0.2 As 0.44 P 0.56 multi-quantum-well (MQW) structure, the carrier temperature extracted from photoluminescence rises faster for 405 nm compared with 980 nm excitation, as the injected carrier density increases. Ensemble Monte Carlo simulation of the carrier dynamics in the MQW system shows that this carrier temperature rise is dominated by nonequilibrium LO phonon effects, with the Pauli exclusion having a significant effect at high carrier densities. Further, we find a significant fraction of carriers reside in the satellite L-valleys for 405 nm excitation due to strong intervalley transfer, leading to a cooler steady-state electron temperature in the central valley compared with the case when intervalley transfer is excluded from the model. Good agreement between experiment and simulation has been shown, and detailed analysis has been presented. This study expands our knowledge of the dynamics of the hot carrier population in semiconductors, which can be applied to further limit energy loss in solar cells.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum kinetic modeling of KEEN waves in a warm-dense regime

We report the first fully kinetic, quantum study of kinetic electrostatic electron nonlinear (KEEN) waves, showing that quantum diffraction systematically erodes the classical trapping mechanism, narrows harmonic locking to the fundamental, and hastens post-drive decay. Electrons are evolved with a second-order Strang-split 1D1V Wigner–Poisson solver that couples conservative semi-Lagrangian WENO advection to an analytic Fourier space update for the non-local Wigner term, while ions remain classical. We focus on collisionless dynamics in a weakly coupled regime, providing a controlled baseline before collisional extensions. Short, frequency-tuned ponderomotive pulses drive KEEN formation in a uniform Maxwellian plasma; as the dimensionless quantum parameter H rises from the classical limit to values relevant to warm-dense matter, doped semiconductors, and 2D electron systems, the drive threshold increases, higher harmonics are damped, trapped electron vortices diffuse, and the subplasma electrostatic energy relaxes to a lower stationary level, as confirmed by continuous wavelet analysis. These microscopic changes carry macroscopic weight. Ignition-scale capsules now compress matter to regimes where the electron de Broglie wavelength rivals the Debye length, making classical kinetic descriptions insufficient. By extending KEEN physics into this quantum domain, our results offer a potential diagnostic of non-equilibrium electron dynamics for next-generation inertial-confinement designs and high-energy-density platforms, indicating that predictive fusion modeling may benefit from the integration of kinetic fidelity with quantum effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Time Correlations from Steady-State Expectation Values

Recovering properties of correlation functions is typically challenging. On the one hand, experimentally, it requires measurements with a temporal resolution finer than the system’s dynamics. On the other hand, analytical or numerical analysis requires solving the system evolution. Here, we use recent results of quantum metrology with continuous measurements to derive general lower bounds on the relaxation and second-order correlation times that are both easy to calculate and measure. These bounds are based solely on steady-state expectation values and their derivatives with respect to a system parameter, and can be readily extended to the autocorrelation of arbitrary observables. We validate our method on two examples of critical quantum systems: a critical driven-dissipative resonator, where the bound matches analytical results for the dynamics, and the infinite-range Ising model, where only the steady state is solvable, and thus the bound provides information beyond the reach of existing analytical approaches. Our results can be applied to the experimental characterization of ultrafast systems and to the theoretical analysis of many-body models whose dynamics are hard to compute.

Górecki, Wojciech [INFN, Pavia] (ORCID:00000001991↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time correlations from steady-state expectation values

Recovering properties of correlation functions is typically challenging. On one hand, experimentally, it requires measurements with a temporal resolution finer than the system's dynamics. On the other hand, analytical or numerical analysis requires solving the system evolution. Here, we use recent results of quantum metrology with continuous measurements to derive general lower bounds on the relaxation and second-order correlation times that are both easy to calculate and measure. These bounds are based solely on steady-state expectation values and their derivatives with respect to a control parameter, and can be readily extended to the autocorrelation of arbitrary observables. We validate our method on two examples of critical quantum systems: a critical driven-dissipative resonator, where the bound matches analytical results for the dynamics, and the infinite-range Ising model, where only the steady state is solvable and thus the bound provides information beyond the reach of existing analytical approaches. Our results can be applied to experimentally characterize ultrafast systems, and to theoretically analyze many-body models with dynamics that are analytically or numerically hard.

Górecki, Wojciech [INFN, Pavia]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time correlations from steady-state expectation values

Górecki, Wojciech [INFN, Pavia]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pressure-induced nonmonotonic cross-over of steady relaxation dynamics in a metallic glass

Relaxation dynamics, as a key to understand glass formation and glassy properties, remains an elusive and challenging issue in condensed matter physics. In this work, in situ high-pressure synchrotron high-energy X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy has been developed to probe the atomic-scale relaxation dynamics of a cerium-based metallic glass during compression. Although the sample density continuously increases, the collective atomic motion initially slows down as generally expected and then counterintuitively accelerates with further compression (density increase), showing an unusual nonmonotonic pressure-induced steady relaxation dynamics cross-over at ~3 GPa. Furthermore, by combining in situ high-pressure synchrotron X-ray diffraction, the relaxation dynamics anomaly is evidenced to closely correlate with the dramatic changes in local atomic structures during compression, rather than monotonically scaling with either sample density or overall stress level. In conclusion, these findings could provide insight into relaxation dynamics and their relationship with local atomic structures of glasses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R eff ) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R eff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R eff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median R eff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Millisecond-long suppression of spectroscopic optical signals using laser filamentation

Ultrashort laser pulse filamentation in air can extend the delivery of focused laser energy to distances greatly exceeding the Rayleigh length. In this way, remote measurements can be conducted using many standard methods of analytical spectroscopy. The performance of spectroscopic techniques can be enhanced by temporal gating, which rejects the unwanted noise and background. In the present work, we investigate the thermal relaxation of air in the wake of single-filament plasmas using shadowgraphy. Here, we demonstrate that the transient change in refractive index associated with relaxation of the gas can be used to reject both continuous and time-varying spectroscopic signals, including emission from laser-produced plasmas. This method can augment temporal gating of simple optical detectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗