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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Pathways of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry with implications for the overall transportation and energy sectors: an integrated, multi-sectoral analysis of future scenarios

Bio-jet adoption has emerged as an attractive option to complement and supplement the use of refined fossil liquid fuels in the aviation industry in the US. However, there are significant uncertainties surrounding the costs of bio-jet including but not limited to costs of feedstock, transformation costs and the competition with co-products of bio-jet that may be demanded elsewhere in the transportation or energy sectors. This study models alternative trajectories of bio-jet adoption in the US aviation industry by 2050 through the use of a global integrated multi sector dynamics model. Three bio-jet production and consumption pathways are presented- soybean oil to jet, corn ethanol to jet (ETJ) and Fisher–Tropsch-based bio-jet, with each pathway explicitly considering the co-production of renewable diesel and renewable gasoline alongside the bio-jet. Without explicit actions or technology changes to offset the technology cost of bio-jet, scenarios where bio-jet displaces refined liquids result in higher aviation fuel prices (ranging from a 25% increase to 120% increase by mid-century) and lower demand (ranging from −14% to −43%). Corn ethanol will play an important role in the US if large scale amounts of bio-jet are to be produced with smaller effects on demand and prices. While scenarios with high levels of bio-jet availability without the availability of ETJ in the US can significantly reduce emissions in the aviation sector, these reductions are achieved more through the reduction in overall aviation fuel demand rather than technology adoption.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The economic and environmental costs and benefits of the renewable fuel standard

Abstract Mandates, like the renewable fuel standard (RFS), for biofuels from corn and cellulosic feedstocks, impact the environment in multiple ways by affecting land use, nitrogen (N)-leakage, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We analyze the differing trade-offs these different types of biofuels offer among these multi-dimensional environmental effects and convert them to a monetized value of environmental damages (or benefits) that can be compared with the economic costs of extending these mandates over the 2016–2030 period. The discounted values of cumulative net benefits (or costs) are then compared to those with a counterfactual level of biofuels that would have been produced in the absence of the RFS over this period. We find that maintaining the corn ethanol mandate at 56 billion l till 2030 will lead to a discounted cumulative value of an economic cost of $199 billion over the 2016–2030 period compared to the counterfactual scenario; this includes $109 billion of economic costs and $85 billion of net monetized environmental damages. The additional implementation of a cellulosic biofuel mandate for 60 billion l by 2030 will increase this economic cost by $69 billion which will be partly offset by the net discounted monetized value of environmental benefits of $20 billion, resulting in a net cost of $49 billion over the 2016–2030 period. We explore the sensitivity of these net (economic and environmental) costs to alternative values of the social costs of carbon and nitrogen and other technological and market parameters. We find that, unlike corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels can result in positive net benefits if the monetary benefits of GHG mitigation are valued high and those of N-damages are not very high.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Ethanol-to-Jet cost Effectiveness via direct conversion to n -Butene-Rich olefins and Co-Product Valorization

Ethanol is a promising feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel production; however, conventional routes face significant energy and cost challenges, particularly due to the ethanol dehydration step to ethylene. Here, this study leverages breakthrough experimental data to perform comprehensive techno-economic and life-cycle assessments of an innovative ethanol-to-jet process. The process employs a single-step catalytic conversion, enabled by multifunctional Cu-ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst, to directly upgrade ethanol into a mixed olefin stream rich in n-butene. The single-step conversion eliminates the costly ethanol dehydration step in the conventional process. High selectivity toward n-butene offers key advantages: it simplifies downstream oligomerization into jet-range hydrocarbons and enables the co-production of renewable n-butene alongside sustainable aviation fuel. The analysis estimates a minimum fuel selling price as low as $\$$2.50 per gallon, whether using corn ethanol or cellulosic ethanol from corn stover. Life cycle CO 2 equivalent emissions are projected to be as low as 10.6 g CO 2 eq/MJ sustainable aviation fuel, representing over 70% reduction compared to conventional petroleum-based jet fuel. This one-step ethanol upgrading approach not only facilitates SAF and n-butene co-production but also provides operational flexibility. The ability to tailor product outputs allows the ethanol-to-jet process to adapt to varying feedstocks, incentive programs, and market dynamics, ultimately enhancing the economic viability of sustainable aviation fuel production.

Xu, Yiling [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating geographic origins of corn and soybean biomass for biofuel production: A detailed dataset

Sustainable fuel initiatives in the United States such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Stan- dard and the Department of Energy’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge have increased the production of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. However, the lack of precise information regarding biomass sourcing at a localized level has hindered accurate understanding of both biofuel costs and environmental impact of these production pathways. By harnessing the power of geospatial analysis and leveraging United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop cen- sus data, this dataset fills this critical knowledge gap. This dataset offers a novel estimation of geospatial biomass sourc- ing for biofuel production in the United States by synthe- sizing 2017 USDA crop census data, biorefinery data from the United States Energy Information Administration, and publicly available information about biomass sourcing for biofuel production. This dataset provides a detailed under- standing of biomass use for first generation biofuel pro- duction, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment strategies, and infras- tructure development. Furthermore, the county-level gran- ularity of the dataset allows for increased fidelity in the techno-economic assessments and life-cycle analyses of first- generation biofuels in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Shifting agricultural practices to produce sustainable, low carbon intensity feedstocks for biofuel production

The carbon intensity (CI) of biofuel's well-to-pump life cycle is calculated by life cycle analysis (LCA) to account for the energy/material inputs of the feedstock production and fuel conversion stages and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during these stages. The LCA is used by the California Air Resources Board's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program to calculate CI and monetary credits are issued based on the difference between a given fuel's CI and a reference fuel's CI. Through the Tier 2 certification program under which individual fuel production facilities can submit their own CIs with their facility input data, the LCFS has driven innovative technologies to biofuel conversion facilities, resulting in substantial reductions in GHG emissions as compared to the baseline gasoline or diesel. A similar approach can be taken to allow feedstock petition in the LCFS so that lower-CI feedstock can be rewarded. Here we examined the potential for various agronomic practices to improve the GHG profiles of corn ethanol by performing feedstock-level CI analysis for the Midwestern United States. Our system boundary covers GHG emissions from the cradle-to-farm-gate activities (i.e. farm input manufacturing and feedstock production), along with the potential impacts of soil organic carbon change during feedstock production. We conducted scenario-based CI analysis of ethanol, coupled with regionalized inventory data, for various farming practices to manage corn fields, and identified key parameters affecting cradle-to-farm-gate GHG emissions. The results demonstrate large spatial variations in CI of ethanol due to farm input use and land management practices. In particular, adopting conservation tillage, reducing nitrogen fertilizer use, and implementing cover crops has the potential to reduce GHG emissions per unit corn produced when compared to a baseline scenario of corn–soybean rotation. This work shows a large potential emission offset opportunity by allowing feedstock producers a path to Tier 2 petitions that reward low-CI feedstocks and further reduce biofuels' CI. The prevalence of significant acreage that has not been optimized for CI suggests that policy changes that incentivize optimization of this parameter could provide significant additionality over current trends in farm efficiency and adoption of conservation practice.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a thermophilic coculture for corn fiber conversion to ethanol

Abstract The fiber in corn kernels, currently unutilized in the corn to ethanol process, represents an opportunity for introduction of cellulose conversion technology. We report here that Clostridium thermocellum can solubilize over 90% of the carbohydrate in autoclaved corn fiber, including its hemicellulose component glucuronoarabinoxylan (GAX). However, Thermoanaerobacterium thermosaccharolyticum or several other described hemicellulose-fermenting thermophilic bacteria can only partially utilize this GAX. We describe the isolation of a previously undescribed organism, Herbinix spp . strain LL1355, from a thermophilic microbiome that can consume 85% of the recalcitrant GAX. We sequence its genome, and based on structural analysis of the GAX, identify six enzymes that hydrolyze GAX linkages. Combinations of up to four enzymes are successfully expressed in T. thermosaccharolyticum . Supplementation with these enzymes allows T. thermosaccharolyticum to consume 78% of the GAX compared to 53% by the parent strain and increases ethanol yield from corn fiber by 24%.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Process for Converting Corn Bran to Furfural without Mineral Acids

Furfural is a bio-derived industrial chemical that has been identified as a platform chemical for the production of renewable fuels and chemicals. Currently, domestic feedstock and processing costs are high, so United States-based furfural production is not competative on the global market. Furthermore, furfural production costs must be much less than the current market price if it is to be competative platform for bio fuels and chemicals. An alternative low-cost feedstock for furfural is corn bran from a corn ethanol process. We have proposed a new process for producing furfural from corn bran that consumes no mineral acids. The high hemicellulose content of corn bran reduces capital and operating costs. Eliminating mineral acids reduces chemical consumption and makes the residual solids suitable for consumption as animal feed. The combination of a low cost source of hemicellulose and high valued residue could make the proposed process more economical than current processes based on corncobs.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changes in global land use and CO 2 emissions from us bioethanol production: what drives differences in estimates between corn and cellulosic ethanol?

Land use change (LUC) CO 2 emissions associated with bioenergy production depend on the amount of land required to produce bioenergy crops, the carbon stored in such crops (including in the leaves, stalk, roots and soil), and the carbon emitted when another land cover is directly or indirectly displaced as a result. In this study, we use a global integrated assessment model [the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)] to explore the differences in estimates of LUC CO 2 emissions for two crops (corn and switchgrass) used to produce ethanol in the United States under alternative assumptions about natural lands protection. Varying the latter assumptions for corn ethanol results in net LUC CO 2 emissions between 7 and 41 gCO 2 per MJ of ethanol, whereas varying the same assumptions for switchgrass ethanol results in net emissions between -26 and 14 gCO 2 per MJ of ethanol. The low-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be fully protected everywhere, which leads to significant cropland intensification. The high-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be unprotected everywhere, leading to greater cropland expansion and associated conversion of unmanaged forest and pasture. Results from this study could be used to inform scenarios of future energy system change or life cycle assessment of biofuels for which LUC emissions would be an input.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-product landscape life-cycle assessment approach for evaluating local climate mitigation potential

Increasing demand for land-based climate mitigation requires more efficient management of agricultural landscapes for competing objectives. Here we develop methods for assessing trade-offs and synergies between intensification and carbon-sequestering conservation measures in annual crop production landscapes using the DayCent ecosystem model and the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) life-cycle assessment (LCA) model. We compiled county-scaled crop yields, fertilizer application rates, and tillage intensity for a corn–soybean farming case study landscape in the US state of Iowa. Using DayCent, we estimated a baseline soil organic carbon (SOC) accrual rate of 0.29 Mg C ha -1 y -1 driven by historical increases in crop productivity and reductions in tillage intensity. We then simulated the effects of management interventions targeted toward intensification (stover removal) and SOC sequestration (tillage intensity reduction and winter cover crop addition) individually and in combination. We propose a new multi-product landscape–LCA approach that analyzes marginal changes in corn grain, corn stover, and soybean production from the landscape in terms of their value for biofuel production (corn ethanol, soy biodiesel, and cellulosic ethanol from stover) and associated net displacement of conventional fossil-derived fuel use. This enables us to evaluate both intensification and sequestration effects in common CO 2 -equivalent mitigation units. We also used DayCent-simulated yields under the different land management scenarios to estimate farm-level costs and revenues. Our results show that intensification via collecting 30% of corn stover for biofuel production would increase the total greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of this landscape by 0.93 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 and provide $49 ha -1 y -1 of additional net revenue from biomass sales, but would reduce the baseline SOC accumulation rate by approximately 40%. In contrast, integrated approaches that include co-adoption of winter cover cropping and/or tillage intensity reduction would result in increased rates of SOC accumulation above the baseline, achieving simultaneous improvements in both farm profits and the overall GHG mitigation potential of the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cultivating clarity: understanding the impact of land cost assumptions on biofuel viability

The transition to sustainable energy has increased interest in biofuel production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on imported oil, and ensure energy resilience. Here, this study examines the often-overlooked impact of land cost assumptions on the economic viability of biofuel production. Using a discounted cash flow techno-economic framework, we evaluated three land cost scenarios—no land costs, land rental costs, and land purchase costs—across six bioenergy feedstocks (corn, soybeans, switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and microalgae) and three biofuel products (corn ethanol, soybean biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) at the county level for the contiguous United States. The analysis reveals substantial variation in minimum fuel selling prices due to these scenarios. High-yield crops like algae showed low sensitivity to land costs, while low-yield crops such as soybeans were highly sensitive. Geographical differences were significant, with minimum fuel selling price increases most pronounced in high-value land regions like the Corn Belt. Case studies further illustrate the influence of local productivity and land costs on economic outcomes across the United States. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining consistent land cost assumptions in biofuel economic assessments. By quantifying the interplay between land value, crop productivity, and economic feasibility, this study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders to advance sustainable energy solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model

Biofuels are supported by various governmental policies in the U.S. and globally as an alternative transportation fuel for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Much debate surrounds the effectiveness of these policies as well as the overall net environmental effect of increased biofuels use. In the U.S., recent studies have shown that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program, overall, may not have been the leading driver of the ethanol industry from 2005 to 2020, contrary to common perception. Similar scrutiny has not been applied to biodiesel. Here, this study uses the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a well-vetted system dynamics model, to retrospectively apportion historical biodiesel production between the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. Thus, the overall effect of the RFS Program appears much larger on biodiesel than on corn ethanol. The finding that the same policy may have very disparate effects on different biofuels helps inform the design of future policies on biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regionalized Life-Cycle Water Impacts of Microalgal-Based Biofuels in the United States

While algal biofuels have the potential to reduce the national reliance on fossil fuels, high water consumption associated with algal biomass cultivation represents a major concern potentially compromising the sustainable commercialization of this technology. This study focuses on quantifying the water footprint (WF) and water scarcity footprint (WSF) of renewable diesel derived from algal biomass and provides insights into where algal cultivation is less water-intensive than traditional ethanol and biodiesel feedstocks. Results are generated with an engineering process model developed to predict the life-cycle water consumption, considering green, blue, and gray water, of algae facilities across the United States at a high spatiotemporal resolution. The total WFs for Florida and Arizona are determined to be 13.1 and 17.6 m 3 GJ –1 , respectively. The blue WF in Arizona is shown to be 8.5 times larger than in Florida, while the green WF is 4.5 times smaller, but when combined into a total WF, there is just a 26% difference between the two locations. The analysis reveals that the total life-cycle WFs of algal renewable diesel are smaller than the optimal WFs of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. Algal systems benefit from higher growth rates and offer the opportunity to manage wastewater streams, therefore generating smaller green and gray WFs than those of conventional biofuels. Here, the WSF analysis identifies the Gulf Coast as the most suitable region for algal cultivation, with cultivation in the western US shown to exacerbate local water stress levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adoption of biofuels for marine shipping decarbonization: A long‐term price and scalability assessment

Abstract This study assessed the long‐term annual biofuel production capacity potential and price in the United States and shed light on the prospect of biofuel adoption for marine propulsion. A linear programming model was developed to assist the projections and provide insightful analyses. The projected long‐term (2040) maximum annual capacity of biofuels in the United States is 245 million metric tons (Mt) or 65 billion gallons of heavy fuel oil gallon equivalent (HFOGE) when based on the median feedstock availability. Between 2022 (near‐term) and 2040, the potential biofuel capacity increases by over 40%, attributed to increased feedstock availability. At a price range up to $500/t, biodiesel is the main product, and the annual capacity (12 Mt) is limited to feedstock availability constraints. Biodiesel and corn ethanol are the main biofuels at a price range up to $750/t. At a higher price point (above $750/t), the biofuel types and annual capacities increase substantially (218 Mt per year). Biofuels above this price include gasoline‐, jet‐, and diesel‐range blendstocks, as well as bio‐methanol, bio‐propane, and biogas. This study concludes that the US domestic feedstock availability coupled with advanced conversion technologies can produce substantial amounts of biofuels to achieve a critical mass and be impactful as alternative marine fuels. There is also a need to improve the biofuel price for marine shipping adoption. Policies and economic incentives that provide temporary financial support would help facilitate maritime biofuel adoption. © 2022 Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model

Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. It is important to consider the energy that is consumed in producing primary energy resources and energy consumed in transporting these energy resources internationally and domestically in order to produce a complete picture of these impacts. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks not just to the energy system but also to regional and global crop markets. Different modeling and analysis strategies have been applied to consider these impacts, which occur “upstream” of final energy consumption, with some success. Traditional life cycle models allow for rich technological detail in linking upstream impacts of energy demand with downstream final consumption; however, they cannot by themselves represent dynamic economic feedbacks across multiple sectors and regions over time. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling does account for economic feedback among all sectors and regions; however, CGE modeling does not lend itself to physical representation of technological detail. Partial equilibrium (PE) modeling is a heterogeneous category describing economic models that focus on a subset of the economy, and they differ in coverage and ease in incorporating more sectors and economic links. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the direct and indirect impacts of energy demand with physical and technology detail by explicitly adding these upstream energy and transportation links to GCAM, a PE model of global energy, land use, and emissions. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios we studied, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon↗
DOE OSTI2022

Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainties in greenhouse gas savings and abatement costs with cellulosic biofuels

Cellulosic biofuels from non-food feedstocks, while appealing, continue to encounter uncertainty about their induced land use change (ILUC) effects, net greenhouse gas (GHG) saving potential and their economic costs. We analyze the implications of multiple uncertainties along the biofuel supply chain from feedstock yields, land availability for production to conversion to fuel in the refinery on these outcomes. Furthermore, we find that compared to corn ethanol, cellulosic biofuels have a substantially smaller and less uncertain ILUC-related GHG intensity and lead to larger GHG savings at lower welfare costs of abatement, indicating the potential to make robust and substantial contributions to cost-effective climate change mitigation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agriculture, bioenergy, and water implications of constrained cereal trade and climate change impacts

International trade increases connections and dependencies between countries, weaving a network of global supply chains. Agricultural commodity trade has implications for crop producers, consumers, crop prices, water and land uses, and other human systems. Interconnections among these systems are not always easy to observe when external impacts penetrate across multiple sectors. To better understand the interactions of non-linear and globally coupled agricultural-bioenergy-water systems under the broader economy, we introduce systematic perturbations in two dimensions, one human (restrictions on agricultural trade) and the other physical (climate impacts on crop yields). We explore these independently and in combination to distinguish the consequences of individual perturbation and interactive effects in long-term projections. We show that most regions experience larger changes in cereal consumption due to cereal import dependency constraints than due to the impacts of climate change on agricultural yields. In the scenario where all regions ensure an import dependency ratio of zero, the global trade of cereals decreases ~50% in 2050 compared to the baseline, with smaller decreases in cereal production and consumption (4%). The changes in trade also impact water and bioenergy: global irrigation water consumption increases 3% and corn ethanol production decreases 7% in 2050. Climate change results in rising domestic prices and declining consumption of cereal crops in general, while the import dependency constraint exacerbates the situation in regions which import more cereals in the baseline. The individual and interactive effects of trade perturbations and climate change vary greatly across regions, which are also affected by the regional ability to increase agricultural production through intensification or extensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗