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Provable Security and Resilience in Critical Infrastructure – Next Steps

With the conclusion of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project on Provable Security and Resilience (PSaR) in Critical Infrastructure, we present forward-looking technical concepts and strategies that build on the project’s outcomes and INL’s long-standing expertise in infrastructure protection. The challenge is to protect critical infrastructure and functions much more efficiently at scale than capable adversaries can attack at scale. After summarizing progress and ongoing work we’ll discuss what are the challenges that remain and what are new/emerging technologies, strategies, and processes to meet those challenges. Finally, we’ll layout concepts that integrate with other protection work in the coming year and beyond. For example, building secure function-specific platforms based on the seL4 microkernel, and considering the successes of Cyber-Informed Engineering as a model for engage, collaboration, and adoption. We look forward to your feedback and collaboration as we refine and expand this vision.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Application of Faster R-CNNs in Object Detection Efforts Applied to the Critical Infrastructure Domain

Object detection and segmentation approaches have been successfully applied to multiple interdisciplinary domains ranging from medical imaging to autonomous vehicles. The following study details efforts to apply segmentation methods to the critical infrastructure domain. Specifically, the identification of critical sub-components of four facilities: airports, hospitals, hydroelectric dams, and water treatment plants. Data for this study was extracted from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agriculture Imagery Program data set. Each facility class was considered independently of the other facilities, producing four different segmentation models during the testing and training process. Ultimately, the study team concluded there are significant challenges associated with object detection modeling when applied to facility analysis within the critical infrastructure domain. The study team was able to identify possible sources of these challenges that could be potentially addressed in future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CI-MOR Final Report: Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction

This report summarizes the research and capabilities developed as part of the project “Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction” (CI-MOR) LDRD project. CI-MOR research enables the solution of large, complex optimization models that naturally arise in national security challenges involving critical infrastructures. Specifically, CI-MOR researchers developed methods to (1) rigorously approximate complex, nonlinear optimization formulations, (2) identify alternative near-optimal solutions, (3) accelerate optimization workflows used for complex applications, and (4) rigorously integrate domain knowledge in stochastic-process models. This report provides an overview of the research done in CI-MOR, and we describe application exemplars used to illustrate CI-MOR capabilities. Furthermore, we describe the software developed by CI-MOR that researchers can leverage to analyze new applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Energy Storage Impacts in Resilience Hubs and Other Critical Infrastructure: An Assessment Guide for Developers and Practitioners

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) deployed behind the meter at resilience hubs and other critical infrastructure can provide economic and operational value during normal operations—such as lower and more predictable energy costs—as well as resilience and security benefits during power disruptions by maintaining essential services. However, existing evaluation approaches tend to focus narrowly on engineering performance or rely on broad socio-economic frameworks that are not well suited to behind-the-meter storage. As a result, developers, utilities, and funders often lack consistent methods for defining success, quantifying benefits, and comparing outcomes across projects. This report presents a practitioner-oriented impact assessment framework for evaluating behind-the-meter BESS at resilience hubs and critical infrastructure facilities. The framework is organized into five iterative components—developing an action plan, defining project goals, identifying metrics, collecting data and measuring outcomes, and reporting and using results—and includes a structured metric architecture spanning six impact categories. Designed for real-world constraints such as limited staffing and uneven data availability, the framework was developed, applied, and refined through real projects, and is illustrated with case studies across diverse deployment contexts.

Impact Assessment↗

Interdisciplinary Approaches to Cybervulnerability Impact Assessment for Energy Critical Infrastructure

As energy infrastructure becomes more interconnected, understanding cybersecurity risks to production systems requires integrating operational and computer security knowledge. We interviewed 18 experts working in the field of energy critical infrastructure to compare what information they find necessary to assess the impact of computer vulnerabilities on energy operational technology. These experts came from two groups: 1) computer security experts and 2) energy sector operations experts. We find that both groups responded similarly for general categories of information and displayed knowledge about both domains, perhaps due to their interdisciplinary work at the same organization. Yet, their discussion of each group’s domain-specific training, motivations, and limitations, as well as their suggestions for collaboration across domains, highlighted how these two groups can work together to help each other secure the energy grid. Our findings inform the development of interdisciplinary security approaches in critical-infrastructure contexts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enhancing Resilience of our Nation’s Critical Infrastructure

Due to the ever-changing risk environment that faces the Nation’s critical infrastructure, it is essential that a comprehensive, collaborative approach is taken to enhance the resilience of the infrastructure assets and systems that are relied upon by the American people. To address the gaps that exist in infrastructure resilience research and development, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) created the Resilience Optimization Center (IROC) to bring together multi-disciplinary subject matter experts internally across the laboratory, as well as from public and private entities, other national laboratories, and academia to address some of the Nation’s more challenging infrastructure problems. These experts are working to provide easier access to subject matter experts; providing feasible, optimized solutions that yield observable results; and creating collaborative teams that apply a cyber-physical-dependencies approach. Though a variety of research initiatives, IROC is striving to provide end-to-end solutions, bridging the gap between cyber and physical infrastructure through research, analysis, testing, and validation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Feasibility of critical infrastructure protection using network functions for programmable and decoupled ICS policy enforcement over WAN

Industrial control systems (ICS) represent a major component of our critical infrastructure. With the increasing need for more control and monitoring of such systems, ICS have seen an increase in connectivity to wide area networks (WAN) exposing aging equipment to rapidly evolving cybersecurity threats. Furthermore, the ICS data requires a reliability measure from the networks for critical functions for infrastructure monitoring and control. Especially when remote plant sites are involved such as pipelines, energy distribution networks, and transportation, WAN transport impairments most often provide a best effort delivery with no strict reliability guarantees. Network functions can provide a vendor agnostic, programmable critical infrastructure protection with a single maintenance, policy determination, and reliability assurance surface. A network function (NF) can be utilized for policy enforcement over the communication between remote entities and the main control office. This paper presents the research on transparent integration with existing ICS without disrupting communications, resulting in minimal downtime while decoupling the fast paced evolution of defensive security measures from the upgrade cycle of expensive long term hardware. We report our measurements on the resource requirements and overhead in the network for successful NF insertion under a wide variety of network impairments (network packet delay, reordering, and loss). Our paired NF implementation provides a policy enforcement platform extensible to cover myriad cybersecurity-related communication goals, including packet signing for verification, encryption for data privacy, packet filtering and data diode operation (i.e. protecting against eavesdropping, packet injection, and denial-of-service). Furthermore, bundling communication specifications into packet flows allows for tunability in applying policies as coarse- or fine-grained as the needs of the operator. We report on network function resource requirements in the form of required queue depth and network utilization overhead to inform the decision making against hardware cost constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗

MASTODON: An Open-Source Software for Seismic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure

Seismic analysis and risk assessment of safety-critical infrastructure like hospitals, nuclear power plants, dams, and facilities handling radioactive materials involve computationally intensive numerical models and coupled multiphysics scenarios. They are also performed in a strict regulatory environment that requires high software quality assurance standards, and in the case of safety-related nuclear facilities, a conformance to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA-1) standard. This paper introduces the open-source finite-element software, MASTODON (Multi-hazard Analysis of Stochastic Time-Domain Phenomena), which implements state-of-the-art seismic analysis and risk assessment tools in a quality-controlled environment. MASTODON is built on MOOSE (Multi-physics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment), which is a highly parallelizable, NQA-1 conforming, coupled multiphysics, finite-element framework developed at Idaho National Laboratory. MASTODON is capable of fault rupture and source-to-site wave propagation using the domain reduction method, nonlinear site response, and soil-structure interaction analysis, implicit and explicit time integration, automated stochastic simulations, and seismic probabilistic risk assessment. When coupled with other MOOSE applications, MASTODON can also solve strongly and weakly coupled multiphysics problems. This paper presents a summary of the capabilities of MASTODON and some demonstrative examples.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Interdisciplinary Approaches to Cyber-vulnerability Impact Assessment for Energy Critical Infrastructure

As energy infrastructure becomes more interconnected, understanding cybersecurity risks to production systems requires integrating operational and computer security knowledge. We interviewed 18 experts working in the field of energy critical infrastructure to compare what information they find necessary to assess the impact of computer vulnerabilities on energy operational technology. These experts came from two groups: 1) computer security experts and 2) energy sector operations experts. We find that both groups responded similarly for general categories of information and displayed knowledge about both domains, perhaps due to their interdisciplinary work at the same organization. Yet, we found notable differences in the details of their responses and in their stated perceptions of each group’s approaches to impact assessment. Their suggestions for collaboration across domains highlighted how these two groups can work together to help each other secure the energy grid. Our findings inform the development of interdisciplinary security approaches in critical-infrastructure contexts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Seamless Transition of Critical Infrastructures using Droop Controlled Grid-forming Inverters

Seamless recovery of power to critical infrastructures, after grid failure, is a crucial need arising in scenarios that are increasingly becoming more frequent. Here, this article proposes a seamless transition strategy using a single and unified mode-dependent droop controlled grid-forming inverters. The control strategy achieves the following objectives: 1) regulates the output active and reactive power by the droop-controlled inverters to a desired value while operating in on-grid mode; 2) seamless transition and recovery of power injections into the load after grid failure by inverters that operates in grid-forming mode all the time; 3) requires only a single bit of information on the grid/network status for the mode transition. A framework for assessing the stability of the system and to guide the choice of parameters for controllers is developed using control-oriented modeling. A controller hardware-in-the-loop-based real-time simulation study on a test system based on the realistic electrical network of a commercial-scale medical center is conducted for initial prototyping of the control strategy. A hardware experiment is conducted with two 3 - $\phi$, 480 -V, 125 -kVA grid-forming inverters, a 3 - $\phi$, 480 -V, 270 -kVA grid simulator, a physical grid switch, and a physical load bank. The experimental data establishes the effectiveness of the always grid-forming operation and control of inverters in meeting power delivery objectives when on-grid and off-grid under various kinds of loads and scenarios while minimizing transients during transitions. Furthermore, performance comparison with existing strategies showcases the advantage of the proposed strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Quantum Key Distribution for Critical Infrastructures: Towards Cyber-Physical Security for Hydropower and Dams

Hydropower facilities are often remotely monitored or controlled from a centralized remote control room. Additionally, major component manufacturers monitor the performance of installed components, increasingly via public communication infrastructures. While these communications enable efficiencies and increased reliability, they also expand the cyber-attack surface. Communications may use the internet to remote control a facility’s control systems, or it may involve sending control commands over a network from a control room to a machine. The content could be encrypted and decrypted using a public key to protect the communicated information. These cryptographic encoding and decoding schemes become vulnerable as more advances are made in computer technologies, such as quantum computing. In contrast, quantum key distribution (QKD) and other quantum cryptographic protocols are not based upon a computational problem, and offer an alternative to symmetric cryptography in some scenarios. Although the underlying mechanism of quantum cryptogrpahic protocols such as QKD ensure that any attempt by an adversary to observe the quantum part of the protocol will result in a detectable signature as an increased error rate, potentially even preventing key generation, it serves as a warning for further investigation. In QKD, when the error rate is low enough and enough photons have been detected, a shared private key can be generated known only to the sender and receiver. We describe how this novel technology and its several modalities could benefit the critical infrastructures of dams or hydropower facilities. The presented discussions may be viewed as a precursor to a quantum cybersecurity roadmap for the identification of relevant threats and mitigation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SOLAr Critical Infrastructure Energization (SOLACE): Leveraging Distributed Energy Resources to Provide Local Power

This document is a technical report based on a large-scale DOE-funded project conducted between 2019 and 2022. The project, called SOLAr Critical infrastructure Energization (SOLACE), is aimed at leveraging distributed energy resources (DERs) to provide local power to communities, feeders, or other regions. The project included a particular focus on high-value critical loads such as municipal water supply, telecommunication hubs, and disaster shelters. The key developments of the project were: (1) A comprehensive pre-event power system analysis methodology that identifies and characterizes the viable local power options. (2) A DMS-based example control system for activating and operating the local power solution during a time of crisis. (3) Grid-forming inverter technology to enable isolated local power operation and black-starting. (4) Cyber-security considerations for isolated systems when wider-area communication may be offline. This report describes the overall process that identifies and assesses the viable DER-based local power solutions for a given facility, region, or community. The report documents the process, including the key analysis steps, tools required, data requirements, and recommended pass/fail criteria for each step. It also provides a sample implementation of this process through a test case. Finally, it provides details of how a viable pre-event plan can be selected and activated at go-time when an event has occurred.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advanced High-Performance Computational Modeling of the Seismic Response of High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSS

New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Systems Theory Principles and Complex Systems Engineering Concepts for Protection and Resilience in Critical Infrastructure: Lessons from the Nuclear Sector

Part of the Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21) (PPD 2013) mandate includes evaluating safety, security, and safeguards (or nonproliferation) mechanisms traditionally implemented within the nuclear reactors, materials, and waste sector of critical infrastructure—including a complex, dynamic set of risks and threats within an all-hazards approach. In response, research out of Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) explores the ability of systems theory principles (hierarchy and emergence) and complex systems engineering concepts (multidomain interdependence) to better understand and address these risks and threats. Herein, this Sandia research explores the safety, safeguards, and security risks of three different nuclear sector-related activities—spent nuclear fuel transportation, small modular reactors, and portable nuclear power reactors—to investigate the complex and dynamic risk related to the PPD-21-mandated all-hazards approach. This research showed that a systems-theoretic approach can better identify inter-dependencies, conflicts, gaps, and leverage points across traditional safety, security, and safeguards hazard mitigation strategies in the nuclear reactors, materials, and waste sector. Resulting from this, mitigation strategies from applying systems theoretic principles and complex systems engineering concepts can be (1) designed to better capture interdependencies, (2) implemented to better align with real-world operational uncertainties, and (3) evaluated as a systems-level whole to better identify, characterize, and manage PPD-21's all hazards strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-Performance Computational Modeling of Strong Ground Motion for Seismic Response Analysis with Implications for High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSSNLV-015-19, Year 2

Presentation to be given at the FY 2020 SDRD Annual Meeting, to be held Sept. 23-24, on WebEx. There is one video also attached. This presentation is a reduced slide deck of the recently STIPped version, DOE/NV/03624--0875, presented 9-15-20 at the work in progress seminar. High-Performance Computational Modeling of Strong Ground Motion for Seismic Response Analysis with Implications for High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSSNLV-015-19, Year 2

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Empowering Critical Infrastructure Communication with Secure 5G Private Networks

With the transformational New Radio- Unlicensed (NR-U), 5G network can be operated with unlicensed and shared spectrum. Private 5G networks without any licensed bands, which are both highly expensive and usually available to only large commercial wireless providers, can now be used for a whole range of new applications including smart factories, warehouses, connected cars and drones. 5G’s support of a) massive machine type communication (mMTC) for a large number of connected devices with b) ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC) capability when needed, and c) up to 20 times higher data rate with enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) than previously available, enables new and powerful capabilities in a wireless network. While these capabilities are transformational, necessary security and reliability requirements have to be satisfied when used in critical infrastructure such as factories, power plants, water systems, ports, and other industrial facilities. 5G standards have introduced significant security improvement over 4G/LTE as well as mitigations for new attack surfaces created by changes in the 5G network. This talk will discuss these security improvements and whether they meet the security properties required for mission critical communication over wireless.

5G↗

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗