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NASA NTRS2017

Early Estimation of Solar Activity Cycle: Potential Capability and Limits

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and longterm sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods of Prediction of Solar Activity

The variable solar magnetic activity known as the 11-year solar cycle has the longest history of solar observations. These cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth's space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model, complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Prediction↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗

NASA NTRS1990

Calculating Performances Of Fabry-Perot Etalons

Effects of changes in design determined quickly. Etalon Model computer program implements stand-alone mathematical model of an etalon. Designed to perform calculations over many wavelengths. Used to determine sensitivity of filter to changes in temperature, thickness tolerances, or alignment angles of etalon design. Calculates several performance parameters of etalons by use of equations in closed form, and calculates transmission as function of wavelength and uses transmission data to determine additional performance parameters. Developed on IBM PS/2 Model 80-071 computer using Microsoft version 4.01 FORTRAN compiler.

Cross, Patricia L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Development of mathematical techniques for the assimilation of remote sensing data into atmospheric models

The problem of the assimilation of remote sensing data into mathematical models of atmospheric pollutant species was investigated. The problem is posed in terms of the matching of spatially integrated species burden measurements to the predicted three dimensional concentration fields from atmospheric diffusion models. General conditions are derived for the "reconstructability' of atmospheric concentration distributions from data typical of remote sensing applications, and a computational algorithm (filter) for the processing of remote sensing data is developed.

Seinfeld, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spinning Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Markley Variables: Filter Implementation And Results

Attitude estimation is often more difficult for spinning spacecraft than for three-axis stabilized platforms due to the need to follow rapidly-varying state vector elements and the lack of three-axis rate measurements from gyros. The estimation problem simplifies when torques are negligible and nutation has damped out, but the general case requires a sequential filter with dynamics propagation. This paper describes the implementation and test results for an extended Kalman filter for spinning spacecraft attitude and rate estimation based on a novel set of variables suggested in a paper by Markley [AAS93-3301 (referred to hereafter as Markley variables). Markley has demonstrated that the new set of variables provides a superior parameterization for numerical integration of the attitude dynamics for spinning or momentum-biased spacecraft. The advantage is that the Markley variables have fewer rapidly-varying elements than other representations such as the attitude quaternion and rate vector. A filter based on these variables was expected to show improved performance due to the more accurate numerical state propagation. However, for a variety of test cases, it has been found that the new filter, as currently implemented, does not perform significantly better than a quaternion-based filter that was developed and tested in parallel. This paper reviews the mathematical background for a filter based on Markley variables. It also describes some features of the implementation and presents test results. The test cases are based on a mission using magnetometer and Sun sensor data and gyro measurements on two axes normal to the spin axis. The orbit and attitude scenarios and spacecraft parameters are modeled after one of the THEMIS (Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms) probes. Several tests are presented that demonstrate the filter accuracy and convergence properties. The tests include torque-free motion with various nutation angles, large constant-torque attitude slews, sensor misalignments, large initial attitude and rate errors, and cases with low data frequency. It is found that the convergence is rapid, the radius of convergence is large, and the results are reasonably accurate even in the presence of unmodeled perturbations.

Sedlak, Joseph E.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Development of mathematical techniques for the assimilation of remote sensing data into atmospheric models

The problem of the assimilation of remote sensing data into mathematical models of atmospheric pollutant species was investigated. The data assimilation problem is posed in terms of the matching of spatially integrated species burden measurements to the predicted three-dimensional concentration fields from atmospheric diffusion models. General conditions were derived for the reconstructability of atmospheric concentration distributions from data typical of remote sensing applications, and a computational algorithm (filter) for the processing of remote sensing data was developed.

Seinfeld, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 4: Preliminary nonscanner models and count conversion algorithms

Two count conversion algorithms and the associated dynamic sensor model for the M/WFOV nonscanner radiometers are defined. The sensor model provides and updates the constants necessary for the conversion algorithms, though the frequency with which these updates were needed was uncertain. This analysis therefore develops mathematical models for the conversion of irradiance at the sensor field of view (FOV) limiter into data counts, derives from this model two algorithms for the conversion of data counts to irradiance at the sensor FOV aperture and develops measurement models which account for a specific target source together with a sensor. The resulting algorithms are of the gain/offset and Kalman filter types. The gain/offset algorithm was chosen since it provided sufficient accuracy using simpler computations.

Halyo, Nesim↗

NASA NTRS1997

Implicit Kalman filtering

For an implicitly defined discrete system, a new algorithm for Kalman filtering is developed and an efficient numerical implementation scheme is proposed. Unlike the traditional explicit approach, the implicit filter can be readily applied to ill-conditioned systems and allows for generalization to descriptor systems. The implementation of the implicit filter depends on the solution of the congruence matrix equation (A1)(Px)(AT1) = Py. We develop a general iterative method for the solution of this equation, and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence. It is shown that when the system matrices of an implicit system are sparse, the implicit Kalman filter requires significantly less computer time and storage to implement as compared to the traditional explicit Kalman filter. Simulation results are presented to illustrate and substantiate the theoretical developments.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2012

Model-based prognostics for batteries which estimates useful life and uses a probability density function

This invention develops a mathematical model to describe battery behavior during individual discharge cycles as well as over its cycle life. The basis for the form of the model has been linked to the internal processes of the battery and validated using experimental data. Effects of temperature and load current have also been incorporated into the model. Subsequently, the model has been used in a Particle Filtering framework to make predictions of remaining useful life for individual discharge cycles as well as for cycle life. The prediction performance was found to be satisfactory as measured by performance metrics customized for prognostics for a sample case. The work presented here provides initial steps towards a comprehensive health management solution for energy storage devices.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

Daigle, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS1977

Numerical image manipulation and display in solar astronomy

The paper describes the system configuration and data manipulation capabilities of a solar image display system which allows interactive analysis of visual images and on-line manipulation of digital data. Image processing features include smoothing or filtering of images stored in the display, contrast enhancement, and blinking or flickering images. A computer with a core memory of 28,672 words provides the capacity to perform complex calculations based on stored images, including computing histograms, selecting subsets of images for further analysis, combining portions of images to produce images with physical meaning, and constructing mathematical models of features in an image. Some of the processing modes are illustrated by some image sequences from solar observations.

Levine, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Orbit determination in the presence of unmodeled accelerations.

In the investigation discussed here, the unmodeled acceleration is approximated as a first-order stationary Gauss-Markov process which can be separated into a time wise correlated component and a purely random component. An extended form of the Kalman-Bucy filter is used to estimate the state and the unmodeled accelerations at each observation epoch. Applications of the estimation algorithm to simulated data and to tracking data obtained during the Apollo 10 and 11 missions indicate that a more accurate estimate of the state is obtained using the algorithm and that the estimated values of the unmodeled accelerations can be correlated with physical phenomena neglected by the mathematical model.

Tapley, B. D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Uncertainty Modeling for Structural Control Analysis and Synthesis

The development of an accurate model of uncertainties for the control of structures that undergo a change in operational environment, based solely on modeling and experimentation in the original environment is studied. The application used throughout this work is the development of an on-orbit uncertainty model based on ground modeling and experimentation. A ground based uncertainty model consisting of mean errors and bounds on critical structural parameters is developed. The uncertainty model is created using multiple data sets to observe all relevant uncertainties in the system. The Discrete Extended Kalman Filter is used as an identification/parameter estimation method for each data set, in addition to providing a covariance matrix which aids in the development of the uncertainty model. Once ground based modal uncertainties have been developed, they are localized to specific degrees of freedom in the form of mass and stiffness uncertainties. Two techniques are presented: a matrix method which develops the mass and stiffness uncertainties in a mathematical manner; and a sensitivity method which assumes a form for the mass and stiffness uncertainties in macroelements and scaling factors. This form allows the derivation of mass and stiffness uncertainties in a more physical manner. The mass and stiffness uncertainties of the ground based system are then mapped onto the on-orbit system, and projected to create an analogous on-orbit uncertainty model in the form of mean errors and bounds on critical parameters. The Middeck Active Control Experiment is introduced as experimental verification for the localization and projection methods developed. In addition, closed loop results from on-orbit operations of the experiment verify the use of the uncertainty model for control analysis and synthesis in space.

Campbell, Mark E.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Orbit/attitude estimation with Landsat-1 and -2 landmark data

The accuracy of spacecraft orbit and attitude determination is investigated using Landsat-1 and -2 picture data. The data consists of ground control points, of known geodetic coordinates, which are identified on a series of Landsat pictures. Both sequential (extended Kalman filter) and batch (nonlinear Bayesian weighted least-squares) estimation techniques have been implemented in two software systems. Discussion of these systems includes a system overview, mathematical formulation, and sample numerical results. Particular emphasis is given to the application of a spectral analysis technique to derive spacecraft attitude models.

Hall, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Vector-Ordering Filter Procedure for Data Reduction

The vector-ordering filter (VOF) technique involves a procedure for sampling a large population of data vectors to select a subset of data vectors that fully characterize the state space of the large population. The VOF technique enables a large reduction of the volume of data that must be handled in the automated monitoring system and method discussed in the two immediately preceding articles. In so doing, the VOF technique enables the development of data-driven mathematical models of a monitored asset from sets of data that would otherwise exceed the memory capacities of conventional engineering computers. Data-driven mathematical models have been shown to offer high fidelity for purposes of control and monitoring of assets. In practice, a collection of asset-operating observations is acquired with the intention that the collection contain observations characteristic of the full dynamic range of operation of the asset. Often, such a collection contains an extremely large number of observations, many of which are redundant. The VOF technique fills the need for a means to extract, from the original collection of observational data, a reduced data matrix that excludes redundant data while maintaining the full statistical character and dynamic range of the original data. The reduced data matrix can then be used as the input data for development of a mathematical model of the monitored asset, or as training data for a neural-network substitute for an explicit mathematical model of the asset. Alternatively, the reduced data matrix can, itself, be used directly as a mathematical model of the monitored asset, as is commonly done in multivariate state-estimation techniques. The original data are collected from the asset over a range of operating states and are put in matrix form. Each column vector in the original data matrix represents the signal values acquired at a particular operational state of the asset. Thus, the number of columns of the original data matrix equals the number of observed states and the number of rows in this matrix equals the number of signals acquired at each observation. In the VOF technique, one extracts the reduced data matrix from the original data matrix through the selection of a representative subset of the column (state) vectors.

Bickford, Randall L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Estimation of bias errors in measured airplane responses using maximum likelihood method

A maximum likelihood method is used for estimation of unknown bias errors in measured airplane responses. The mathematical model of an airplane is represented by six-degrees-of-freedom kinematic equations. In these equations the input variables are replaced by their measured values which are assumed to be without random errors. The resulting algorithm is verified with a simulation and flight test data. The maximum likelihood estimates from in-flight measured data are compared with those obtained by using a nonlinear-fixed-interval-smoother and an extended Kalmar filter.

Klein, Vladiaslav↗

NASA NTRS1987

The spectral characteristics of rotor blade-vortex interaction noise - Experimental and mathematical results

The BVI impulsive content of a rotor acoustic signal is shown to appear in the mid-frequency range of the power spectrum, between the fifth and thirtieth harmonics of the blade passage frequency, concentrated at the harmonics of the blade passage frequency. These harmonics exhibit a humped or scalloped shape in this mid-frequency spectral region. Increased energy at the harmonics of the shaft frequency appears when the BVI impulsive content demonstrates unsteadiness and blade-to-blade differences in the time domain. A mathematical model of a generalized BVI acoustic signal and its power spectrum shows that the power spectrum is scalloped and filtered by a comb function. The spectrum amplitude is defined by the impulse amplitude and emission time. The scalloping of the spectrum is related to the emission time of the impulse itself, and the spacing of the comb function is related to the repetition time (period) of the impulse. The decay rate of the spectral humps is governed by the inverse of frequency squared. The mathematical model validates the characteristics observed in the data and verify that these characteristics are due to blade-vortex interaction activity.

Martin, Ruth M.↗