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The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework is a tool that can be used by hydropower plant manager to make more educated cybersecurity investments. Users can take a self guided assessment allowing the tools to generate risk, impact and cybersecurity scores and be given risk-based recommendations to enhance decision-making.
Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.
Benefits accrue to scientists, resource managers, companies, and policymakers when environmental scientists publish in peer-reviewed journals. However, environmental scientists and practitioners face challenges, including the sometimes low value placed on journal articles, institutional vested interests in outcomes, and the changing priorities of employers and project sponsors. Confidentiality agreements can also lead scientists to assume publication is not an option. Case studies may be viewed by potential authors as too routine for peer-reviewed journals. On the basis of 30 years of experience, we suggest that publishing hurdles can be overcome and that environmental scientists have a range of options. The topics of manuscripts can include not only results from case studies and perspectives based on them but also byproducts of assessments, including definitions, plans, monitoring methods and models, and decision frameworks. Environmental scientists have unique opportunities to move science forward with their practical knowledge if they can move across the institutional, logistical, data-related, and content-related hurdles.
Based on the U isotopic compositions and trace element concentrations - additional information provided in Inject 1b - we assess that the two samples are inconsistent with high confidence. Our assessment factored in the results of the graded decision framework (GDF) as well as expert knowledge of these kind of measurements.
Alcohols are attractive fuel blendstocks for spark ignition engines due to their high octane values and potentially positive influence on performance and emission. Although methanol, ethanol, and butanol have been widely studied, other biomass-derived alcohols may have similar or better properties. However, it is not feasible to experimentally investigate the fuel potential of every molecule. The goals of this study were to develop a methodology for rapid screening of a fuel property database for mono-alcohols and to identify alcohols with the potential of blending to produce advantaged motor gasolines. A database was developed with 13 fuel properties of all saturated C1–C10 mono-alcohols. A decision framework was used to evaluate alcohols suitable for blending in gasoline for spark ignition engines in two scenarios: low-range (up to 15 vol%) blends and high-range (greater than 40 vol%) blends. The low-range blend cases resulted in the identification of 48 alcohols. In the case of high-range blending, only six alcohols were found to be suitable. This is the first study to systematically evaluate all C1–C10 saturated alcohols for blending with gasoline using relevant fuel properties. A novel aspect of this study is the evaluation of the influence of errors in predicted property values. These scenario screenings focus attention on a smaller number of promising candidate molecules, and the approach could be modified for other classes of fuel molecules, engine types, and fuel blending goals.
Areas of high chlorinated volatile organic compound (cVOC) contamination at the Savannah River Site (SRS) have been undergoing remediation via soil vapor extraction, sometimes coupled with thermal treatments to enhance extraction rates. These active systems are effective in removing large amounts of contaminant mass from the subsurface and mitigating the impacts to groundwater. However, as extraction rates decline, costs must be evaluated with respect to the benefit of continued active operation. A decision framework for identifying conditions when a transition to a more passive remediation is appropriate has been developed with state and federal regulatory agencies. Two remediation areas have recently been transitioned from active soil vapor extraction (ASVE) to passive soil vapor extraction (PSVE) at the SRS. Performance evaluation goals including plume stabilization, overall mass removal trends, environmental sustainability and costs were considered in transitioning from active remediation to passive technologies at both sites. At the Dynamic Underground Stripping (DUS) project at the M-Area Settling Basin, ASVE was combined with steam injection to extract cVOCs during active operations. Steam injection occurred from September 2005 to September 2009. DUS utilized 63 steam injection wells, 34 active vapor extraction wells, and 3 active soil vapor extraction units (SVEUs). Two active SVEUs had 60 horsepower blowers; the third had a 25-horsepower blower. Mass removal was closely tracked during DUS operations; over 181,437 kilograms (400,000 pounds) of cVOCs were removed while active steam injection occurred. After steaming was stopped, ASVE continued. The 34 active wells were evaluated in 2012. The ASVE wells were grouped into categories of high, medium, and low extraction rates. High producing wells remained connected to a single active SVEU. Low producing wells were abandoned, and the medium producing wells were transitioned to PSVE (Microblowers{sup TM}). Microblowers{sup TM} utilize a dedicated blower per well and are solar powered. This passive technology provides energy, maintenance, and operation costs savings while still providing an efficient reduction in cVOC migration to groundwater. In 2018, the remaining ASVE wells were evaluated again. The purpose of this testing was to identify which wells removed the most mass. An optimal well configuration was determined. The criteria to discontinue ASVE was removal of less than 18 kilograms (40 pounds) per week of cVOCs. After 3 months of shutdown (rebound conditions), 2.7 kilograms (5.9 pounds) of cVOCs per week were being removed. Data from the rebound test justified ending ASVE and transitioning wells with higher extraction rates to PSVE. Wells that had depleted the cVOC mass within their zone of influence were abandoned. Performance data from existing PSVE wells justified ending PSVE at wells with depleted extraction rates. Currently the system has 16 PSVE wells operating. Another ASVE system was being used to treat cVOC contaminated soil at the A-Area Miscellaneous Rubble Pile (AMRP) at SRS. System operation began in 2004, with 7 ASVE wells connected to a 60- horsepower blower. Mass removal rates and contaminant concentrations remained consistently low over the ASVE lifespan at AMRP. This indicated that mass removal was diffusion limited. With this data, the 7 ASVE wells were transitioned to PSVE in 2017. Twelve pressure monitoring points were also transitioned to PSVE wells. AMRP currently has 19 PSVE wells operating. Both transitions from active to passive remediation had concurrence from the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control. These transitions ensure that only the necessary amount of energy is being exerted to remediate the environment. (authors)
As an energy storage technology, pumped storage hydropower (PSH) supports various aspects of power system operations. However, determining the value of PSH plants and their many services and contributions to the system has been a challenge. While there is a general understanding that PSH resources provide many services and benefits for the operation of power systems, estimating the value of these services—and especially the monetary value of some of those services—has been a challenge. The objective of this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), is to advance the state of the art in assessing the value of PSH plants and their contributions to the power system. The specific goal is to develop detailed, step-by-step valuation guidance that PSH developers, plant owners or operators, and other stakeholders can use to assess the value of existing or potential new PSH plants and their services. The specific goals of this project are: (1) to develop comprehensive and transparent valuation guidance that will support consistent valuation assessments and comparisons of PSH projects or project design alternatives, (2) to test the PSH valuation guidance and its underlying methodology by applying it to two selected PSH projects, and (3) to transfer and disseminate the PSH valuation guidance to the hydropower industry, PSH developers, and other stakeholders. The authors believe that the application of a consistent, transparent, and repeatable valuation process will advance valuation assessments and allow stakeholders to compare valuation analyses performed for different PSH projects or design alternatives. It will also increase the acceptance of valuation results and enable better understanding of the true value that PSH technology brings to the grid.
Devising effective post-hazard recovery strategies is critical in enhancing the resilience of transportation networks (TNs). However, existing work does not consider the multiclass users’ travel behavior in network functionality quantification and the metaheuristic solution procedures often suffer from extensive computational burden due to the exploration need in large solution space and the expensive functionality quantification. Here, this study develops a bilevel decision-making framework for the resilience-based recovery scheduling of the TN in a mixed traffic environment with connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) and human-driven vehicles (HDVs). The lower level quantifies the TN's functionality over time considering different travel behavior of CAV and HDV users arisen from their different levels of information perception. The upper level presents a novel deep-ensemble-assisted active learning approach to balance optimization performance and computational cost. This framework can help decision makers better quantify the TN's functionality to support effective recovery scheduling of TN with different mixed traffic scenarios ranging from HDV-only to future CAV-dominant traffic. The optimization approach bears the potential to be extended to solving general large-scale network recovery scheduling problems effectively and efficiently. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a real-world traffic network in Southern California under earthquake considering deterministic and stochastic repair durations.
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Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) are gaining great attention, as they can help operate grid power grids more reliably. The ESS acquisition and operation is motivated by the economics revolving around its provided services and revenue streams. These economics are greatly impacted by uncertainties in predicting the parameters which influence the ESS operation. The main goal of this paper is in addressing these uncertainties. We organize sources of uncertainties which directly impact the value-driven operation of the ESS and propose a framework which combines the uncertain requirements from processes both internal and external to ESS.
This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.
The report presents a framework for states that seek to incorporate equity into regulatory decision-making. Berkeley Lab contextualizes approaches and metrics from various states into example processes to exemplify how this may be done, including topics such as the development of equity goals and definitions, intervenor funding, community engagement, performance-based ratemaking, and utility resource planning. The report offers five takeaways and considerations, supported by these examples: 1. Equity comprises multiple tenets and stages, all of which must be considered in parallel. 2. At the start of designing new equity-related processes, it is critical to establish clear and actionable goals, definitions, roles, and responsibilities to ensure progress. 3. Once goals are established, it is critical to align tools and metrics that bridge the gap between what an intervention may do and how it may impact communities and households. 4. Processes should be stakeholder driven. It is important to not only increase education and outreach, but to actively seek out and incorporate feedback from inclusive public processes and build in accountability mechanisms. Processes should be iterative. Feedback loops between evaluations and program design provide the flexibility to better align existing interventions with community priorities and to incorporate equity into future decision-making.
The recent resurgence in advance (non-light water) reactor development has been paralleled by the development of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) licensing pathways. Specifically, the creation of the RIPB Licensing Modernization Project (LMP) approach and subsequent endorsement by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) now provides advanced reactor vendors with a defined RIPB method to develop an affirmative safety case for licensing. In addition, the Technology Inclusive Content of Applications Project (TICAP) has published guidance on developing a license application based on the LMP approach. To support the utilization of risk information as part of advanced reactor design and licensing efforts, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)/American Nuclear Society (ANS) Joint Committee on Nuclear Risk Management (JCNRM) has developed a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) standard for advanced reactors. The standard, which was formerly approved by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) in 2021 and recently endorsed by the NRC in trial use Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.247, is an integral standard, covering from initiating events to offsite consequence. A major feature of the standard is that it permits the inclusion of any source of radioactivity material at the site within the plant PRA. Therefore, non-core sources of radioactivity, such as fuel storage, fuel processing, and purification systems, can be included within a single comprehensive plant PRA. For those advanced reactor vendors utilizing a RIPB licensing approach, there is an opportunity to include the non-core sources of radioactivity within the RIPB framework for licensing decision-making, such as the categorization of events, classification of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), and evaluation of the adequacy of defense-in-depth (DID). For advanced reactor designs that contain multiple non-core sources of radioactivity, or for monolithic plant sites that include associated fuel facilities, this approach could potentially simplify licensing applications through the use of a single, uniform, and consistent decision-making framework across all radioactive sources at the site. In addition, a RIPB approach could provide additional insights regarding plant behavior, flexibility regarding licensing decision-making, and potentially allow the use of risk information as part of the plant oversight process. Risk-informing these aspects of advanced reactor licensing would also be consistent with the NRC’s risk policy statement. However, there is diverse regulation and guidance regarding the licensing of non-core sources of radioactivity and generally limited experience using RIPB approaches for the evaluation as part of licensing.
As a result of increasing windstorm losses in the United States over the past 50 years, a variety of residential wind hazard mitigation strategies have been recommended. Wind hazard mitigation undoubtedly reduces windstorm losses; however, little customized information is available to support the economic decision-making process for individual stakeholders, especially at the consumer level. Therefore, there is a need for decision support tools to calculate, evaluate, and present the economic benefits of mitigation over variable decision-making time horizons for unique building characteristics in specific geographical locations. This paper presents a cost-benefit computational decision-making recommendation framework that evaluates and presents the cost effectiveness of mitigation, customized based on location, years of interest, and building characteristics. The decision-making framework consists of two cores. The user-independent core and user-dependent core which consists of eight steps, divided into four subprocesses: (1) data acquisition, (2) data evaluation, (3) cost-benefit calculation, and (4) results comparison and decision making. To demonstrate the framework, a wood-framed single-family home in light suburban terrain in Golden Meadow, Louisiana, is used as a case study, considering retrofit mitigation with a $15,000 budget and a decision-making time horizon of 30 years. The case study provides six mitigation options, with cost ranging between approximately $2,000 and $15,000 and net benefit/cost ratios ranging from 2.4 to 13. Once fully implemented in a decision making information tool, the developed mitigation recommendation framework will provide valuable information that can be used by home designers, builders, owners, and other stakeholders to better understand the economic facets of wind hazard mitigation, providing critical information as part of the overall decision-making process.
Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.
This paper describes a methodology for evaluating how the play fairways analysis (e.g., favorability) can improve our chances of making geothermal development decisions. We make statistical resource assessments and couple them with technoeconomic analysis utilizing previous favorability work performed for the Newberry Volcano. We demonstrate how the favorability can be used in a decision analysis framework because the Newberry favorability also estimated an associated uncertainty. The specific decision considered is how large of a power plant to build, which is difficult given the uncertainty about the resource size. Our results focus on two resource types, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems, and they demonstrate how estimates of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates of the geothermal resource (denoted as the P10, P50, and P90, respectively) can be used in a decision analysis framework. Lastly, the value of information results explore using favorability with and without the magnetotelluric and gravity data from the Newberry Volcano. As expected, the favorability is more reliable, according to our methodology, at indicating the resource size when it includes the two geophysical models.
Underutilized wet waste is a promising feedstock for production of carbon-neutral or carbon-negative liquid transportation fuels. Arrested methanogenesis of wet wastes by microbes, which produces mixtures of C2-C8 carboxylic acids (volatile fatty acids, VFAs), is practiced industrially at a pilot scale and the VFA products can be catalytically upgraded to molecules suitable for use as transportation fuels (alcohols and alkanes) via sequential ketonization and hydrogenation, both steps of which have been demonstrated with high (>90%) yield at the lab scale. We present in this work a simulation-based decision-making framework which evaluates upgrading strategies of VFAs to alcohol- and hydrocarbon-based neat and blended diesel, jet, and gasoline fuels. The processes utilize sequential upgrading steps (ketonization and hydrogenation) accompanied by one distillation step (either separating VFAs before ketonization or alcohols after ketone hydrogenation) to form two liquid streams: a light alcohol stream best suited as a light-duty fuel and a heavy alcohol or hydrocarbon stream best suited as a diesel or jet fuel. Suitability of the liquid products as transportation fuels and maximum blending levels with petrofuels comes from simulation of critical fuel properties (boiling point, flash point, lower heating value, viscosity, melting point, water solubility, and cetane/octane number). Catalytic upgrading steps and fuel property mixing models used by the simulation are experimentally validated. We demonstrate the flexibility of the decision-making algorithm by evaluating processing scenarios for experimentally-observed VFA profiles with varied carbon chain length distributions. Processing scenarios are optimized for either maximum total renewable carbon utilization or production of heavy-duty (jet or diesel) fuels. We evaluate the economic viability and CO2 emissions of each proposed upgrading scenario using techno-economic and life cycle analyses. The decision-making framework developed in this work can also be used to down-select promising strategies for upgrading of other bio-based feedstocks to sustainable fuels and chemicals.