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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Redefining Design for Remanufacturing: A Practical Methodology for Prioritizing Remanufacturing Design Rules

Products are often discarded when they fail or no longer meet user needs. These outcomes are frequently shaped by early design decisions. While remanufacturing offers a sustainable alternative by restoring products to like‐new condition, its potential is often limited by designs that do not consider remanufacturing from the outset. This research addresses that challenge by introducing a structured Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) methodology and a CAD‐integrated tool to support real‐time design decisions. The DfRem framework introduces a new primary design function focused on preserving product functionality across its life cycle. It is supported by a fault tree that identifies failure modes that limit remanufacturing potential and a hierarchy of design principles including Prevent, Minimize, Relocate, Restore, and others. Each principle is linked to actionable design rules that help engineers reduce the need for remanufacturing or improve its efficiency when necessary. To operationalize this framework, we developed CAD plugins for Autodesk Inventor and PTC Creo. These tools use a state machine model to present prioritized design rules based on selected failure modes and user input. By embedding DfRem logic directly into widely used CAD environments, the tool enables engineers to make sustainability‐informed decisions without disrupting existing workflows. Furthermore, this approach highlights the critical role of design in enabling circular and resource‐efficient product development, making remanufacturing a more practical and accessible strategy during the early stages of product design.

CAD↗

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

Policy-Driven Sustainable Saline Drainage Disposal and Forage Production in the Western San Joaquin Valley of California

Environmental policies to address water quality impairments in the San Joaquin River of California have focused on the reduction of salinity and selenium-contaminated subsurface agricultural drainage loads from westside sources. On 31 December 2019, all of the agricultural drainage from a 44,000 ha subarea on the western side of the San Joaquin River basin was curtailed. This policy requires the on-site disposal of all of the agricultural drainage water in perpetuity, except during flooding events, when emergency drainage to the River is sanctioned. The reuse of this saline agricultural drainage water to irrigate forage crops, such as ‘Jose’ tall wheatgrass and alfalfa, in a 2428 ha reuse facility provides an economic return on this pollutant disposal option. Irrigation with brackish water requires careful management to prevent salt accumulation in the crop root zone, which can impact forage yields. The objective of this study was to optimize the sustainability of this reuse facility by maximizing the evaporation potential while achieving cost recovery. This was achieved by assessing the spatial and temporal distribution of the root zone salinity in selected fields of ‘Jose’ tall wheatgrass and alfalfa in the drainage reuse facility, some of which have been irrigated with brackish subsurface drainage water for over fifteen years. Electromagnetic soil surveys using an EM-38 instrument were used to measure the spatial variability of the salinity in the soil profile. The tall wheatgrass fields were irrigated with higher salinity water (1.2–9.3 dS m -1 ) compared to the fields of alfalfa (0.5–6.5 dS m -1 ). Correspondingly, the soil salinity in the tall wheatgrass fields was higher (12.5 dS m -1 –19.3 dS m -1 ) compared to the alfalfa fields (8.97 dS mm -1 –14.4 dS mm -1 ) for the years 2016 and 2017. Better leaching of salts was observed in the fields with a subsurface drainage system installed (13–1 and 13–2). The depth-averaged root zone salinity data sets are being used for the calibration of the transient hydro-salinity computer model CSUID-ID (a one-dimensional version of the Colorado State University Irrigation Drainage Model). This user-friendly decision support tool currently provides a useful framework for the data collection needed to make credible, field-scale salinity budgets. In time, it will provide guidance for appropriate leaching requirements and potential blending decisions for sustainable forage production. This paper shows the tie between environmental drainage policy and the role of local governance in the development of sustainable irrigation practices, and how well-directed collaborative field research can guide future resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Myth of Fungible FTE: A Quantitative Assessment of Matrixed Resource Allocation

Matrix organizations allow scientific facilities to share specialized personnel across projects, operations, maintenance, and strategic initiatives. Nominal staffing allocations, however, may not capture the schedule consequences of fragmented individual commitments, limited access to specialist groups, and intermittent availability of key decision makers. We developed a stochas- tic, daily-time-step simulation of a hypothetical medium-sized accelerator-facility project com- prising sequential phases and parallel tasks. Each task requires role-specific work measured in FTE-days. Ordinary personnel may be unavailable because they contribute concurrently to other institutional activities, while designated key roles have independently specified daily un- availability probabilities. An organization-wide priority factor scales the number of people from each functional group who can effectively contribute to the project. It is interpreted as a composite proxy for project access and workforce fragmentation across competing commit- ments. We examined project completion time as a function of this factor and Project Lead unavailability using 100 Monte Carlo runs per condition. Increasing priority factor from 0.1 to 1.0 reduced median completion time from 1708.5 days (interquartile range 1681.5–1735.25) to 390 days (interquartile range 379–399). At priority factor = 0.1, increasing Project Lead unavailability from 0.5 to 0.9 increased median completion time from 1713.5 days (interquartile range 1691–1733.25) to 4,417 days (interquartile range 4271.75–4550.5). The model quantifies the commonly expected sensitivity of project schedules to fragmented resource commitments and limited coordination availability. Within this model, the results also indicate a possible threshold regime in which small increases in workforce availability yield only modest sched- ule improvements until sufficient capacity becomes accessible, after which project performance improves sharply. With further validation and calibration, this quantitative framework could support resource-allocation decisions during initial project planning and subsequent schedule rebaselining.

Bai, Mei [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SL↗

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating Supply Prioritization Strategies for Risk-Informed Decision Making in an Arbitrary Gas Network

Supply disruptions and infrastructure failures in natural gas networks present critical challenges to energy reliability and risk-informed planning. This study evaluates two supply prioritization strategies, Maximum Delivery Prioritization (MDP) and Demand-Based Prioritization (DBP), within an arbitrary natural gas network under conditions of supply shortage. Model performance under both strategies is assessed in response to node and edge failure using demand satisfaction metrics, system-wide and localized dependency scores, and geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial analysis. Results show that DBP better preserves supply for high-demand nodes, while MDP offers broader coverage. The underlying network topology plays a critical role in shaping prioritization outcomes. Integrated GIS visualization enhances the interpretability of vulnerability assessments, revealing structurally critical components and localized vulnerabilities. The proposed framework supports scalable, data-driven decision-making for infrastructure planners and engineers, enabling improved disruption recovery and efficiency in constrained natural gas networks. These insights contribute to the development of more robust energy systems capable of withstanding stress and disruptions.

Peterson, Steven [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000287672998)↗

Integrating the Mobility Energy Productivity Metric Into the Delaware Department of Transportation Statewide Model

The Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric quantifies the quality of mobility at a given location and evaluates how changes in the transportation system impact mobility over time, such as through infrastructure investments. This study demonstrates the integration of the MEP metric into the Delaware Department of Transportation's (DelDOT's) transportation planning process by utilizing data from its statewide travel demand model. Specifically, the study assesses MEP for the 2020 baseline conditions and three alternative scenarios - 2030, Churchman, and Old Orchard - across multiple travel modes, including driving, walking, biking, and transit. The findings highlight that mobility and accessibility in Delaware are primarily supported by the driving mode, while transit services remain relatively limited, often ranking below biking and walking in many areas. In the 2030 scenario, where network operations and opportunities expand as projected, overall statewide accessibility declines, although Kent and Sussex counties experience improvements. The results from the Churchman and Old Orchard scenarios indicate that local network enhancements can positively influence accessibility, though primarily at a localized level, demonstrating MEP's capability to capture regional accessibility changes. Further, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory team successfully transferred MEP operational knowledge to the DelDOT team through dockerization, enabling DelDOT to independently run MEP for various scenarios of interest. Integrating MEP into DelDOT's planning framework supports future project evaluations and decision-making by incorporating access to opportunities as a key dimension of transportation system assessment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Waste Management Project Success - Regulatory Assurance Systems - 20118

Waste management (WM) and remediation projects are essential within a restorative environmental culture. Despite years of experience, challenges and obstacles associated with efficient and effective WM project execution remain. Although some obstacles are project specific, a common challenge is navigating the regulatory landscape from planning through execution, particularly with first of a kind (FOAK) and first in a while (FIAW) projects. The absence of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy places significant hurdles in the path of project success. To clear a path for the successful execution of increasingly complex WM projects, this paper focuses on development of a comprehensive regulatory assurance strategy and implementation plan that effectively engages stakeholders, agencies, and performers to produce project plans that fully and cost effectively integrate applicable regulatory requirements. The most reliable way to align regulatory processes and decisions needed for mission success is through a regulatory assurance system. This system establishes a healthy interface with regulatory decision makers, to work in a collaborative manner, to create a common vision for regulatory decisions on an agreed upon schedule. A regulatory assurance system consists of several elements. Although the mission may vary from cleanup to site closure to nuclear component production, the elements of a regulatory assurance system remain essentially constant and must include: 1) identifying a common vision or end state, 2) developing a long-term, integrated strategy and schedule, 3) establishing a regulatory partnering team consisting of key decision-makers, 4) regular and frequent communication with decision-makers, 5) ensuring consistent surveillance for early identification of issues and changes that may impact the project, 6) quick resolution of emerging issues to prevent schedule impact, 7) identifying core compliance functions, 8) periodically assessing progress of the project as it relates to regulatory assurance and, 9) providing constructive feedback to improve the process. A regulatory assurance system provides a living, multi-faceted approach to planning, visioning, communicating and tracking to avoid surprises and ensure smooth and timely progress to the project. The overall success measures will be whether the system produces common sense regulatory decisions supporting the vision on time without appeal. Effective regulatory frameworks rarely happen on their own. Balanced, common-sense regulatory decisions stem from teams that are trained to work together to achieve shared goals. In this paper, particular attention is placed on the importance of starting with a shared vision for a regulatory assurance and execution strategy that leverages experience to establish optimal approaches. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Benchmarking Framework for Evaluating Large Language Model Capabilities in Nuclear Reactor Safety Applications

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of answering technical questions, synthesizing domain knowledge, and supporting engineering workflows. For nuclear science and engineering, these capabilities require careful, domain-specific evaluation before they can be credibly incorporated into safety-related activities, regulatory review, or technical decision support. This paper presents preliminary results from benchmarking framework for evaluating LLM capabilities in nuclear contexts. The framework is organized into three evaluation categories: nuclear fundamentals, general dual-use knowledge, and plant specific knowledge. These categories are intended to distinguish general nuclear engineering competence from broader technical reasoning and more context-dependent nuclear knowledge. Initial evaluations focus on nuclear fundamentals using questions representative of the knowledge expected of a nuclear professional engineer. Results indicate that contemporary frontier models perform at a high level and substantially exceed the performance of older model generations, with some models approaching saturation of the current benchmark. These findings suggest both the rapid improvement of LLM capabilities in specialized technical domains and the need for more discriminating evaluation methods. The paper presents the benchmark structure, preliminary model-comparison results, and ongoing work. This work supports development of verifiable, responsible, and safety-conscious methods for assessing AI systems in nuclear engineering applications.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

NARUC Resilience Framework

The NARUC Resilience Framework provides state regulators and other key stakeholders with a structured approach to considering policies and programs that will enhance grid resilience amid evolving technological, environmental and economic challenges. This Framework consolidates insights from nationwide workshops and peer discussions into six actionable components: (1) setting goals and objectives, (2) leveraging use cases, (3) establishing shared definitions, (4) ensuring inclusive process leadership, (5) addressing critical design questions, and (6) guiding implementation. This Framework is intended as a strategic tool for regulators to navigate resilience investments, prioritize affordability, integrate stakeholder needs, and foster collaboration across agencies, all while balancing cost-effectiveness with societal and economic resilience outcomes. By presenting a structured approach to decision-making rather than prescriptive solutions, the Framework supports nuanced, jurisdiction-specific resilience planning and is adaptable to the dynamic demands of modern energy systems

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic, risk informed decision support systems and methods

The present disclosure is directed to a decision support system or tool based on a Bayesian Network (BN) framework. The diagnostic support tool is created by using advanced Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) method(s) to construct Bayesian Networks (BNs) that form a Bayesian Decision Support Process (BDSP) to provide science-based decision support for understanding and managing events in complex systems. In an embodiment, the PRA method(s) may include Discrete Dynamic Event Trees (DDETs) and simulations.

Groth, Katrina↗

Pumped Storage Hydropower Valuation Guidebook: A Cost-Benefit and Decision Analysis Valuation Framework

As an energy storage technology, pumped storage hydropower (PSH) supports various aspects of power system operations. However, determining the value of PSH plants and their many services and contributions to the system has been a challenge. While there is a general understanding that PSH resources provide many services and benefits for the operation of power systems, estimating the value of these services—and especially the monetary value of some of those services—has been a challenge. The objective of this project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), is to advance the state of the art in assessing the value of PSH plants and their contributions to the power system. The specific goal is to develop detailed, step-by-step valuation guidance that PSH developers, plant owners or operators, and other stakeholders can use to assess the value of existing or potential new PSH plants and their services. The specific goals of this project are: (1) to develop comprehensive and transparent valuation guidance that will support consistent valuation assessments and comparisons of PSH projects or project design alternatives, (2) to test the PSH valuation guidance and its underlying methodology by applying it to two selected PSH projects, and (3) to transfer and disseminate the PSH valuation guidance to the hydropower industry, PSH developers, and other stakeholders. The authors believe that the application of a consistent, transparent, and repeatable valuation process will advance valuation assessments and allow stakeholders to compare valuation analyses performed for different PSH projects or design alternatives. It will also increase the acceptance of valuation results and enable better understanding of the true value that PSH technology brings to the grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Essential Function Analysis Capability

The Essential Function Analysis Capability (EFAC) is an extension of the All Hazards Knowledge Framework (AHA) and is a dynamic analytical framework that enables critical infrastructure knowledge discovery and decision support across the five mission areas – prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery. EFAC provides the ability to store and model infrastructure systems as a linked multigraphs providing an intuitive and natural representation. These infrastructure systems can then be tied to the organizational and essential function breakdown of an entity. This capability provides the foundation to rapidly evaluate and understand the potential consequences of manmade and natural disaster on these infrastructure systems and essential functions.

Hoover, MichaelJ.↗

Developing a Prototype Methodology to Rank CO2-EOR Wells and Assess Their Reuse Potential for Geologic Carbon Sequestration

This study presents a prototype methodology for evaluating the reuse potential of Class II CO₂-enhanced oil recovery (CO₂-EOR) wells as Class VI wells for geologic carbon sequestration. The approach focuses on assessing wellbore construction materials—casing, cement, tubing, and packers—based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI well conversion guidelines. Utilizing Python scripts and JSON representations, the methodology automates checks on digitized Texas Railroad Commission (TRRC) data to rank wells based on regulatory and integrity criteria. Key factors include casing integrity, cementing techniques, tubing compatibility, and packer selection. Due to limitations in digitized data, manual verification is required for certain sections. Future enhancements include incorporating non-digitized data via web scraping and machine learning. This research provides a practical framework for well owners and regulators, supporting informed decision-making for sustainable CO₂ storage.

carbon sequestration↗

Communities in energy transition: exploring best practices and decision support tools to provide equitable outcomes

Abstract The U.S. coal industry has been in a state of decline for the past decade, a trend ushered by flat electricity demand, increased regulatory pressure, and market competition from cost-competitive clean energy sources. The receding economic viability of the coal industry has been acutely felt by the communities with immediate economic ties to coal-fired generation. With the energy transition underway, the question of how to engage communities as stakeholders in the decision-making process and address their needs through an equitable and just transition remains unresolved. To that end, this paper explores the economic, environmental, and social challenges presented by the energy transition at the community level, highlighting four case studies from transitioning coal-dependent communities across the United States to ultimately identify best practices in coal plant decommissioning processes. This paper weaves these community-identified best practices into two support tools—a decommissioning checklist and a redevelopment decision-making framework—that can be used to engage communities in the power plant retirement decision, the site reclamation phase, and eventual redevelopment of the site and revitalization of the surrounding community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Retrospective on decadal progress of the NOAA/NPS ocean noise reference station network

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in partnership with the U.S. National Park Service (NPS), established the Ocean Noise Reference Station Network (NRS) in 2014 as a foundational component of NOAA’s Ocean Noise Strategy. This long-term effort aims to characterize baseline ocean ambient sound conditions across diverse marine environments and to inform management of noise impacts on protected species and habitats within U.S. waters. The NRS is now composed of 13 autonomous passive acoustic monitoring stations strategically positioned across the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), extending from Arctic regions to tropical waters in depths ranging from 33 to 4,790 m. These locations include several National Marine Sanctuaries and National Parks, such as the recently designated Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary off the coast of California. Each station is equipped to continuously sample low-frequency underwater sound at five kHz, enabling the detection of anthropogenic, geophysical, and biological acoustic signals. To date the network has sampled over 72 years of calibrated acoustic data. The spatial breadth and consistent methodology of the NRS allow for comparative acoustic assessments across diverse marine ecosystems. In addition to applied research functions, the NRS has served as a platform for education and training, offering opportunities for students to develop skills for marine science and data analysis. Looking forward, the NRS project team is focused on network expansion, improved data delivery, and broader integration with collaborative scientific initiatives. NRS recordings are being archived in partnership with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information to enhance accessibility and long-term utility. Efforts are underway to develop standardized metadata and summary products to accompany raw audio files, making the data more usable for a wide range of stakeholders in the ocean science community. The NRS is evolving into a fully integrated national framework for ocean sound monitoring that supports scientific inquiry, management decision-making, national security interests, and public engagement with ocean acoustic environments.

Long-term monitoring↗