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DOE OSTI2026

Large Load Integration - Task List and Overview

Large Load Integration Tasks: Task 1 – Workshops Support stakeholder engagement across industry to promote collaboration and identify solutions to challenges that will guide other work Task 2 – Ancillary Services Characterize different types of large loads to assess under what conditions they may be utilized to provide grid stability services Task 3 – Communications Explore the cybersecurity and communications infrastructure required to enable large loads to interface with grid operations to provide ancillary services Task 4 – Nuclear Integration Explore risks and methods for supporting large load energy needs with SMRs and incorporating them into the wider power system Task 5 – Decision Support and TA Provide support to stakeholders through the creation of planning tools and direct technical assistance.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scenario Generation for Built Environment Decision Support under Uncertainty: Case Studies of Airflow Modeling and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure System Design

When confronted with unforeseen challenges, practicing informed decision making is crucial for enhancing resilience in the built environment. While scan-to-building information modeling (BIM) is a well-established approach for creating detailed digital representations of physical assets, its application in assessing and improving infrastructure resilience remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel application of scan-to-BIM, namely, scan-to-BIM-to-digital twin (S-BIM-DT) workflow. By integrating reality capture and digital twin technologies, this workflow creates continuously updated and accurate digital representations of physical assets, enabling the generation of various scenarios. Unlike traditional methods, the S BIM-DT workflow facilitates continuous model refinement, supporting informed resilience strategies. By combining these technologies into a cohesive process, the workflow facilitates decision making under uncertainty, enabling stakeholders to evaluate and respond to various scenarios effectively. We demonstrate the implementation of the S-BIM-DT workflow through two use cases that highlight its capability to enhance resilience at different scales. The first use case involves the Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center (CTECC) in Austin, Texas. BIM-enriched computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling simulates airflow and develops alternative scenarios for optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This approach enhances resilience against airborne health threats in a postCOVID context. The second use case focuses on designated areas within Beaumont, Texas, as part of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (SETx-UIFL) research. By developing inundation maps to assess extreme weather events, this modeling aids in preparedness efforts and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Results indicate that the S-BIM-DT workflow effectively generates scenarios that enhance resilience in the built environment by facilitating informed decision making. Furthermore, this study serves as a bridge between advanced scan-to-BIM methodologies and the practical strategies needed to improve built infrastructure resilience.

Built environment↗

DOE OSTI2025

DRE: Designing for Resilience through Emulation

Threats to cyber- and cyber-physical systems have continued to increase over the past decade. Now more than ever, it is vital that cyber-physical system stakeholders have the tools to deeply understand their systems and the threats they face. High-fidelity modeling capabilities are powerful tools to support system understanding and decision-making, but they currently lack scientifically rigorous experimentation practices and infrastructures. The purpose of the project Designing for Resilience through Emulation (DRE) was to bring together past research and existing tools into a new pipeline to improve our ability to quantitatively evaluate future cyber scenarios. DRE offers new integrated capabilities for large dataset collection, noise studies, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and surrogate modeling using a cyber-physical system emulation environment. These new capabilities significantly improve our ability to establish the credibility of the answers derived from emulation environments, ultimately leading to better critical decision support.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗

DOE OSTI2025

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Best practices: Organizational execution

This article, the fourth and final installment in the DOE–IDEA series, focuses on organizational execution and how strong management practices, teamwork, and preparedness contribute to successful district energy systems. It highlights case studies from Ashley Energy and Cornell University to illustrate effective operational strategies. Ashley Energy demonstrates the importance of emergency preparedness and rapid response. After a major flood disrupted its plant, the organization restored service in under 72 hours by relying on pre-established plans, vendor relationships, and trained staff. The case emphasizes proactive contingency planning, understanding insurance processes, and empowering skilled personnel to improvise during crises. Cornell University’s example highlights the role of collaboration and transparency in long-term success. Its district energy system benefits from strong data sharing, real-time energy monitoring, and active involvement of faculty and students in system planning and innovation. This culture of teamwork and data-driven decision-making supports sustainability goals and continuous system improvement. Overall, the article shows that effective organizational execution—through preparedness, collaboration, and data transparency—is essential for maintaining reliable, efficient, and sustainable district energy systems.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tritium Production Estimates in EIC Cooling Water Systems

Annual tritium production in EIC cooling water has been estimated in one sextant cooling system from expected electron beam and proton beam losses in the tunnel. Beam losses and the secondary particles they produce are the only source within the RHIC Tunnel for producing radioactivity in cooling water, including tritium. The need to estimate tritium production supports decisions on whether cooling water systems are required to meet Suffolk County Article 12 requirements (e.g., double-walled piping, leak detection and containment, etc.). Results are extended to the remaining sextant cooling water systems because of the similarity in tunnel cooling water loads and system volumes.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strategies for Flood Resilience and Grid Investment Among Iowa's Electric Distribution Utilities

Flooding poses a growing threat to Iowa's electric distribution system, yet utilities face significant data and modeling challenges in planning effective resilience investments. This report provides a foundational assessment of how distribution utilities in Iowa, investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative, approach resilience planning, with a focus on flood risk. It combines hazard characterization, review of state and utility practices, and application of NLR's Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Systems (ERAD) and Capacity Expansion Decision Support for Distribution Networks (CADET) tools. Using FEMA floodplains, Iowa Flood Center depth grids, and utility infrastructure data, the analysis quantifies asset exposure, simulates outage risks, and evaluates resilience strategies such as pole hardening, undergrounding, and substation protection. Results indicate that while feeder-level upgrades provide incremental benefits, the most significant reductions in outage risk are achieved through targeted substation interventions. The report highlights key data gaps, such as limited elevation data and fragility functions, and underscores the need for probability-weighted investment frameworks to address both frequent and catastrophic flood events. These insights aim to support utilities, state agencies, and federal partners in prioritizing resilience investments that safeguard Iowa's electric grid against future flooding.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mondo: integrating disease terminology across communities

Precision medicine aims to enhance diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis by integrating multimodal data at the point of care. However, challenges arise due to the vast number of diseases, differing methods of classification, and conflicting terminological coding systems and practices used to represent molecular definitions of disease. This lack of interoperability artificially constrains the potential for diagnosis, clinical decision support, care outcome analysis, as well as data linkage across research domains to support the development or repurposing of therapeutics. There is a clear and pressing need for a unified system for managing disease entities⁠—including identifiers, synonyms, and definitions. To address these issues, we created the Mondo disease ontology—a community-driven, open-source, unified disease classification system that harmonizes diverse terminologies into a consistent, computable framework. Mondo integrates key medical and biomedical terminologies, including Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM), Orphanet, Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), National Cancer Institute Thesaurus (NCIt), and more, to provide a comprehensive and accurate representation of disease concepts with fully provenanced and attributed links back to the sources. Mondo can be used as the handle for curation of gene–disease associations utilized in diagnostic applications, research applications such as computational phenotyping, and in clinical coding systems in clinical decision support by pointing the clinician to the numerous knowledge resources linked to the Mondo identifier. Mondo's community-centric approach, stewarded by the Monarch Initiative's expertise in ontologies, ensures that the ontology remains adaptable to the evolving needs of biomedical research and clinical communities, as well as the knowledge providers.

biomedical informatics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ground Source Heat Pump Screening Tool and Related Resources

This archive contains both a link to Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) Screening Tool and related resources documenting its development, technical features, and applications. The web-based screening tool is a techno-economic analysis resource designed to evaluate the feasibility, costs, and benefits of implementing GSHP systems in buildings across various U.S. climate zones. It is intended for use by building owners, HVAC system designers, and installers to support decision-making in residential and commercial applications, incorporating advanced modeling capabilities such as ground heat exchanger design. The included resources detail the tool's creation and use, covering topics such as innovative ground heat exchanger design methodologies, the development of an open library of g-functions for borehole configurations, and studies on GSHP performance and economic viability in retrofitting single-family homes.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Demystifying Cyberattacks: Potential for Securing Energy Systems With Explainable AI : Preprint

Modernization of energy systems has led to in- creased interactions among multiple critical infrastructures and diverse stakeholders making the challenge of operational decision making more complex and at times beyond cognitive capabilities of human operators. The state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning approaches show promise of supporting users with complex decision-making challenges, such as those occurring in our rapidly transforming cyber-physical energy systems. However, successful adoption of data-driven decision support technology for critical infrastructure will be dependent on the ability of these technologies to be trustworthy and contextually interpretable. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of implementing XAI for interpretable detection of cyberattacks in the energy system. Leveraging a proof-of-concept simulation use case of detection of a data falsification attack on a photovoltaic system using XGBoost algorithm, we demonstrate how Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), a flavor XAI approach, can help provide contextual and actionable interpretation of cyberattack detection.

artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption (Research Performance Final Report)

This is the research performance final report for the project entitled: Agent-Based, Bottom-Up Medium- and Heavy-duty Electric Vehicle Economics, Operation, Charging and Adoption This project was able to achieve the DOE’s goals of developing new modeling tools to understand MDHD vehicle operation and adoption. The first modeling tool is a fleet-level techno-economic analysis model capable of estimating energy use and associated environmental and cost impacts for electrified and conventional vehicles of any MDHD vocation, using real-world cost and operations data, including approaches to optimizing schedules for charging and/or vehicle dispatch. The second modeling tool is a system-level, bottom-up, agent-based adoption model capable of generating geographically-resolved estimates of market projections for MDHD vehicles and charging infrastructure. These tools will be developed and published to serve dual purposes as analysis tools for researchers, and decision-support tools for decision makers within the MDHD system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed water desalination and purification systems: perspective and future directions

Distributed water treatment and desalination (DWTD) systems are critical for the development of a diverse water portfolio of the desired quality and intended use at the target location. Widespread adoption of DWTD has been hampered given the need for round-the-clock monitoring and the lack of local technical expertise for system management. However, self-adaptive operation, real-time remote monitoring, supervisory control, and asset management of DWTD systems are now feasible with the implementation of advanced local system control, cyberinfrastructure that facilitates real-time cloud-based analytics, data management, and artificial intelligence–powered decision support. Such an approach will introduce transformative virtual networks of DWTD systems to provide needed water to locations that are not served by centralized and satellite water treatment and desalination systems.

Cohen, Yoram [University of California, Los Angele↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1): A New Decision Support Tool for Solar Industrial Process Heat Applications

Solar thermal technologies are a promising technology to supply low-cost thermal energy to industrial processes, but there are often significant barriers to entry to industrial owners considering these technologies for their energy demands. To overcome this barrier and convey economic value to customers, NREL and Sandia National Laboratories developed Solar Thermal Energy Planner (STEP 1), a new web-based decision support tool for solar industrial process heat systems. At SolarPACES 2024, the STEP 1 tool was still under development; progress, methodologies, and a preliminary case study was presented. With the STEP 1 tool launch in May 2025, in this work, the initial version of the full public tool will be presented with demonstrations of its capabilities using a few case studies. First, the user's process heat needs such as location, process media (e.g., steam, air), process temperature, land availability, electricity and fuel costs, among other parameters. STEP 1 features a mapping interface that allows users to draw land and roof boundaries. The process media and temperature inform technology selection criteria modules that determine the appropriate solar thermal collection technologies, as well as congruent heat transfer media (e.g., hot water, oil, salt). Once the solar thermal technology selected, its nominal thermal production for the given site is characterized using NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). Then, a modified version of NREL's REopt optimal sizing and dispatch optimization tool determines cost-optimal sizing. Within minutes, the user receives the results of the technoeconomics analysis, including the size and performance of the cost-optimal solar-plus-storage system. The cost of the system is compared to business-as-usual (e.g., an existing, standalone natural gas boiler). Users can download key results to store for sensitivity analyses. Examples of flat plate collector, parabolic trough, and molten salt tower applications with and without PV hybridization for different industrial facility types are presented in this work. The STEP 1 tool aims to reduce barriers to the adoption of solar heating solutions stemming from a lack of familiarity and technical background with solar system design options and costs among industry stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗