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At least 37 records · Page 2

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

Kerstman, Eric L.↗

A Decision Support Tool for Distributed Solar and Storage Investments: A Case Study in Austin, TX

This study builds a decision support tool to evaluate when it is a good economic decision (least cost with minimum discomfort) for the residential customer to invest in distributed energy resources (DERs) based on different electricity rate structures, DER ownership frameworks, and DER rebates offered by electric utilities. Here, the tool is demonstrated using empirical electricity consumption data from Pecan Street Inc. (a non-profit entity based on Austin, Texas), residential rates from Austin Energy (the municipal electric utility in Austin, Texas), DER ownership costs from various nationwide pilot programs, and incentives offered by electric utilities in the United States. Results show that for constant electricity rates, the overall expenditure is least when the customer owns solar panels without storage, while for time-varying pricing structures, the least expensive scenario is one where the customer does not own any DERs. As the capital costs for DERs decline, utilities incentivize customer ownership of DERs, and more residential customers face the decision of whether to invest in DERs, this study aims to be a key tool in aiding that decision-making process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

Bloem, Michael↗

Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to Decision Support Tools of PECAD

This section of the evaluation report summarizes the verification and validation (V&V) of recently implemented, NASA-supported enhancements to the decision support tools of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD). The implemented enhancements include operationally tailored Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and products of the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM). The MODIS products are currently made available through two separate decision support tools: the MODIS Image Gallery and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Database. Both the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor and MODIS Image Gallery provide near-real-time products through PECAD's CropExplorer. This discussion addresses two areas: 1. Assessments of the standard NASA products on which these enhancements are based. 2. Characterizations of the performance of the new operational products.

Ross, Kenton W.↗

Autonomous, Context-Sensitive, Task Management Systems and Decision Support Tools I: Human-Autonomy Teaming Fundamentals and State of the Art

Recent advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, data mining and extraction, and especially in sensor technology have resulted in the availability of a vast amount of digital data and information and the development of advanced automated reasoners. This creates the opportunity for the development of a robust dynamic task manager and decision support tool that is context sensitive and integrates information from a wide array of on-board and off aircraft sourcesa tool that monitors systems and the overall flight situation, anticipates information needs, prioritizes tasks appropriately, keeps pilots well informed, and is nimble and able to adapt to changing circumstances. This is the first of two companion reports exploring issues associated with autonomous, context-sensitive, task management and decision support tools. In the first report, we explore fundamental issues associated with the development of an integrated, dynamic, flight information and automation management system. We discuss human factors issues pertaining to information automation and review the current state of the art of pilot information management and decision support tools. We also explore how effective human-human team behavior and expectations could be extended to teams involving humans and automation or autonomous systems.

context-sensitive↗

Decision Support Tools Evaluation Report for FAS/PECAD, Version 2.0

Global agricultral intelligence is a key element of decision support eithin the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Estimeates of production and yield issued by the USDA for both foreign and domestic agriculture are primary sources of information for policy and management decision making. The USDA monitors the major global agricultural commodities through the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of its Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Specifically, PECAD iintelligence focuses on global agricultural production and on conditions that affect food security. In conjunction with the USDA, NASA is evaluating the potential for products from NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) missions to add value to PECAD's decision support tools. NASA is usig a systems engineering approach to evaluate the potential enhancement of PECAD's decision support system (DSS)-first by understanding the components of the system and its input requirements, then by recommending NASA products that may be integrated as system inputs to improve the accuracy, quality, or efficiency of the DSS output. This report documents the evaluation phase of the systems engineering process and includes an examination of the system architecture, operations, and input requirements, as well as an initial assessment of specific ESE measurement systems and products that should be considered for their potential to enhance the PECAD DSS.

Ross, Kenton↗

Multi-Process Tooling

Decisions made early in the automotive design process influence material selection, which in turn dictates process selection and tool design. Because of tool build time and cost of tooling, the original path is not easily altered, even if there is compelling evidence that another material or process would be beneficial. This project focused on tool design that is agile enough to allow its use in multiple processes—injection, injection compression, and extrusion-compression. This tool design allows for the manufacture of components with the most efficient process or materials, without building multiple, single-process tools. The primary purpose of the Multi-Process Tool project was to physically demonstrate that a single, well-designed tool could be used to manufacture parts with a variety of materials that require different processes. A multi-process tool would be beneficial to providing data for any changes to the process since materials and processes can be interchanged without incurring additional tool cost(s). Battery tray parts, (representative of a multi-process tool, were successfully manufactured using various types of materials, such as fiber reinforced (carbon fiber and/or glass fibers, recycled carbon fibers), amorphous (PP, TPU), semi-crystalline (PA6, PA66), and crystalline (thermoset epoxy resin) polymers. Processing of the parts was achieved by injection molding, compression molding, compression overmolding, and injection overmolding. Specimens extracted from various locations on the battery tray parts were evaluated for mechanical properties (flexure and interlaminar shear strength properties). The results show that the tool can be used to produce parts from a wide range of materials and processes with no degradation of the physical or cosmetic properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of Pushback Decision-Support Tool Concept for Charlotte Douglas International Airport Ramp Operations

This paper proposes a new departure pushback decision-support tool (DST) for airport ramp-tower controllers. It is based on NASA's Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) collaborative decision-making concept, except with the modification that the gate releases now are controlled by tactical pushback (or gate-hold) advisories instead of strategic pre-assignments of target pushback times to individual departure flights. The proposed ramp DST relies on data exchange with the airport traffic control tower (ATCT) to coordinate pushbacks with the ATCT's flow-management intentions under current operational constraints, such as Traffic Management Initiative constraints. Airlines would benefit in reduced taxi delay and fuel burn. The concept was evaluated in a human-in-the-loop simulation experiment with current ramp-tower controllers at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport as participants. The results showed that the tool helped reduce taxi time by one minute per flight and overall departure flight fuel consumption by 10-12% without reducing runway throughput. Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) conformance also was improved when advisories were provided. These benefits were attained without increasing the ramp-tower controllers' workload. Additionally, the advisories reduced the ATCT controllers' workload.

aerospace human factors↗

Invasive Species Forecasting System: A Decision Support Tool for the U.S. Geological Survey: FY 2005 Benchmarking Report v.1.6

The National Institute of Invasive Species Science (NIISS), through collaboration with NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), recently began incorporating NASA observations and predictive modeling tools to fulfill its mission. These enhancements, labeled collectively as the Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS), are now in place in the NIISS in their initial state (V1.0). The ISFS is the primary decision support tool of the NIISS for the management and control of invasive species on Department of Interior and adjacent lands. The ISFS is the backbone for a unique information services line-of-business for the NIISS, and it provides the means for delivering advanced decision support capabilities to a wide range of management applications. This report describes the operational characteristics of the ISFS, a decision support tool of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Recent enhancements to the performance of the ISFS, attained through the integration of observations, models, and systems engineering from the NASA are benchmarked; i.e., described quantitatively and evaluated in relation to the performance of the USGS system before incorporation of the NASA enhancements. This report benchmarks Version 1.0 of the ISFS.

Stohlgren, Tom↗

Autonomous, Context-Sensitive, Task Management Systems and Decision Support Tools II: Contextual Constraints and Information Sources

Recent advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, data mining and sensor technology have resulted in the availability of a vast amount of digital data and information and the development of advanced automated reasoners. This creates the opportunity for the development of a robust dynamic task manager and decision support tool that is context sensitive and integrates information from a wide array of on-board and off aircraft sourcesa tool that monitors systems and the overall flight situation, anticipates information needs, prioritizes tasks appropriately, keeps pilots well informed, and is nimble and able to adapt to changing circumstances. This is the second of two companion reports exploring issues associated with autonomous, context-sensitive, task management and decision support tools. In the first report, we explored fundamental issues associated with the development of such a system. In this report, we extend this work to focus on two critical aspects of these systems: 1) the constraints and conditions that drive the dynamic prioritization and presentation of data and information to the pilots, and 2) specific data and information to be accessed, monitored, integrated, and displayed in such a system.

context-sensitive↗

A behavior and physiology-based decision support tool to predict thermal comfort and stress in non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows

Background: Although thermal indices have been proposed for swine, none to our knowledge differentiate by reproductive stage or predict thermal comfort using behavioral and physiological data. The study objective was to develop a behavior and physiology-based decision support tool to predict thermal comfort and stress in multiparous (3.28 ± 0.81) non-pregnant (n = 11), mid-gestation (n = 13), and late-gestation (n = 12) sows. Results: Regression analyses were performed using PROC MIXED in SAS 9.4 to determine the optimal environmental indicator [dry bulb temperature (T DB ) and dew point] of heat stress (HS) in non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows with respiration rate (RR) and body temperature (T B ) successively used as the dependent variable in a cubic function. A linear relationship was observed for skin temperature (T S ) indicating that TDB rather than the sow HS response impacted TS and so TS was excluded from further analyses. Reproductive stage was significant for all analyses (P < 0.05). Heat stress thresholds for each reproductive stage were calculated using the inflections points of RR for mild HS and T B for moderate and severe HS. Mild HS inflection points differed for non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late gestation sows and occurred at 25.5, 25.1, and 24.0 °C, respectively. Moderate HS inflection points differed for non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late gestation sows and occurred at 28.1, 27.8, and 25.5 °C, respectively. Severe HS inflection points were similar for non-pregnant and mid-gestation sows (32.9 °C) but differed for late-gestation sows (30.8 °C). These data were integrated with previously collected behavioral thermal preference data to estimate the T DB that non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows found to be cool (T DB < T DB preference range), comfortable (T DB = T DB preference range), and warm (T DB preference range < T DB < mild HS). Conclusions: The results of this study provide valuable information about thermal comfort and thermal stress thresholds in sows at three reproductive stages. The development of a behavior and physiology-based decision support tool to predict thermal comfort and stress in non-pregnant, mid-gestation, and late-gestation sows is expected to provide swine producers with a more accurate means of managing sow environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Realizing the Residential Electrification Opportunity: One Heat Pump at a Time

Space and water heating in residential buildings is a major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. Advanced electric heat pumps (HP) and heat pump water heaters (HPWH) are poised to provide a low carbon alternative to traditional fossil-based space and water heating. Widespread deployment of heat pumps could help address the significant portion of building emissions and primary energy used in American households, however much work needs to be done to close the knowledge gap between like-for-like fossil equipment replacement and switching to HPs for the average contractor. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been working on closing this knowledge gap through the development of decision tools and resources targeted towards contractors and installers. Developed in coordination with stakeholders and experienced contractors from a variety of geographic regions, these tools help streamline the process of sizing and selecting residential HPs and HPWHs for key use cases. Along with the complementary Retrofit Decision Tool developed by PNNL, the decision tools will help contractors understand the importance of whole building considerations when choosing HPs including envelope upgrades, duct assessments, and electrical assessments to ensure optimal selection and performance of the HP or HPWH. They also provide direct links to resources and best practices developed by PNNL as well as external entities to further help contractor education and training. This paper describes the development of these tools, and their role in moving the existing space and water heating market towards HPs to help realize the country’s decarbonization goals.

heat pump, heat pump water heater, Residential bui↗

Supporting Bioproducts Industry Growth with a System Dynamics Decision-Support Tool

A bio-based economy requires chemical products as well as fuels to be produced from biomass. Although a variety of universities, government agencies, start-ups and established firms have engaged in bioproduct development, many projects have failed to reach the point of commercialization and commercialized bioproducts struggle to capture and maintain market share. To date, there has been no general research into the factors that contribute to bioproduct failure or success. This work presents the Bioproduct Transition Dynamics (BTD) system dynamics model, a decision-support tool that simulates the bioproduct development process from pre-piloting research through construction of the first commercial-scale plant, as well as the processes of obtaining funding from investors and government agencies. The core of the BTD is a feedback loop between bioproduct developers and funders, which relates development progress measured with indicators such as net present value to funders’ decisions to continue investing. External factors such as feedstock prices, market size and growth, and the existence of bioproduct consumers also influence a development project’s chances of receiving follow-on funding. Virtually any bioproduct can be represented with the BTD: direct replacements, performance-advantaged products, niche and commodity markets can all be modeled. The goal of the BTD project is to inform decisions made by developers in both established firms and start-ups, investors, government agencies, and other stakeholders interested in growing the nascent U.S. bioproducts industry. This talk will cover the general structure and functionality of the BTD, and present results from an analysis performed with the BTD to demonstrate its use as a decision-support tool and the insights it can provide. The goal of the analysis is to identify the most critical factors that lead to direct replacement and performance-advantaged bioproduct projects emerging successfully from the “Valley of Death”, and to determine if these factors differ between the two bioproduct types.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Verification and Validation of START: A Spent Nuclear Fuel Routing and Decision Support Tool

The Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START) is a web-based geospatial decision-support tool being developed by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Integrated Waste Management (IWM) to support federal interim storage for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and associated transportation. START provides many functions for the IWM program including: serving as a communications tool for conveying geospatial data and information, an options analysis tool for exploring potential transport modes and routes for transporting SNF from nuclear power plants to future federal interim storage facilities, an emergency response planning tool for Tribes and States to identify training needs along potential SNF transport corridors, an environmental analysis tool for estimating potential radiation dose exposure from incident-free and incident-case SNF transport conditions, and a systems analysis support tool providing route-related inputs for system throughput analysis. As part of the START development process, a verification and validation (V&V) effort is being undertaken. In the initial V&V phase, several outputs of the START tool were checked such as the total distance, population and population densities within the buffer zone, and incident free dose. The V&V process is fluid as it will be utilized after each version change to ensure that the core functionalities of the tool are maintained and the results are consistent with the previous versions. Efforts have also been put into developing scripts to aid in the process of automating certain sections of the V&V work. As some of the V&V efforts use Environmental Systems Research Institute’s (ESRI) tools upon which the START framework is built, the START data were compared against outputs from tools like Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) for buffer zone populations and route lengths to ensure independence of the V&V process. Good agreement was observed between the START results and the independent V&V studies with the majority of the differences falling between 1% and 5% for populations within the buffer zone and route distance. This presentation describes the development and design of the START tool, V&V methods employed for various metrics of interest and their respective results, and future plans.

START, transportation, GIS, V&V↗

A decision support tool for e-waste recycling operations using the hen-and-chicks bio-inspired optimization metaheuristic

E-waste from end-of-life electrical and electronic devices is one of the fastest growing waste streams from households and businesses. E-waste recycling yields environmental sustainability and economic benefits. Due to continuous changes in e-waste types and compositions, recycling businesses face challenges to optimize their operational configuration to achieve better economic and environmental performance. To help e-waste recyclers mitigate this problem, we have developed a modular decision support tool called the Comprehensive Manufacturing Assessment Tool (CMAT) that can simulate both e-waste recycling operations and economics. This tool can give valuable insights regarding the profitability of the entire operation and different e-waste types. In addition, a new bio-inspired metaheuristic optimization algorithm, hen-and-chicks optimization (HACO), was developed to assign manpower to different workstations to maximize operational efficiencies. According to the results of our case study, laptops, desktops, and computer peripherals are the three electronic waste products that produce the most profit. Our examination of the sensitivity of material prices shows that the price of steel has the most significant influence on total profit, because it is the most widely used material in the majority of electronic devices. We have released the decision support tool as open-source software under a general public license. It could be customized for other recycling industries beyond e-waste to achieve business sustainability by making their operations more efficient.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Review and Analysis of Remote Sensing Capability for Air Quality Measurements as a Potential Decision Support Tool Conducted by the NASA DEVELOP Program

This project focused on a comprehensive utilization of air quality model products as decision support tools (DST) needed for public health applications. A review of past and future air quality measurement methods and their uncertainty, along with the relationship of air quality to national and global public health, is vital. This project described current and future NASA satellite remote sensing and ground sensing capabilities and the potential for using these sensors to enhance the prediction, prevention, and control of public health effects that result from poor air quality. The qualitative uncertainty of current satellite remotely sensed air quality, the ground-based remotely sensed air quality, the air quality/public health model, and the decision making process is evaluated in this study. Current peer-reviewed literature suggests that remotely sensed air quality parameters correlate well with ground-based sensor data. A satellite remote-sensed and ground-sensed data complement is needed to enhance the models/tools used by policy makers for the protection of national and global public health communities

Ross, A.↗