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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Stage and Multi-Timescale Robust Co-Optimization Planning for Reliable and Sustainable Power Systems. Final Report

In this project, Clarkson University, in collaboration with Southern Methodist University and University of Pittsburgh, conducted the research to model, design, and implement a sophisticated generation and transmission co-optimization planning decision tool, called Multi-stage and Multi-timescale robust Co-Optimization Planning (MMCOP). The MMCOP decision tool intends to facilitate generation and transmission co-optimization planning of emerging power systems, while mitigating risks and uncertainties in both short-term operation dynamics and long-term policy and technology changes. Long-term power system planning aims at optimizing asset utilization by investing in a proper mix of various generation technologies and transmission lines to supply the future load growth. In particular, the Clean Power Plan (CPP), which is designed to combat climate change and reduce carbon emissions by setting a national limit on carbon pollution from power plants, may dramatically change the landscape of the power industry by further promoting clean energy and phasing out emissions-intensive generation technologies. In addition, novel non-wire alternatives (e.g., demand response (DR), distributed generation (DG), energy efficiency (EE), and smart grid technologies) and the computational complexity for large-scale systems significantly complicate the system planning procedure even further. However, existing conventional planning approaches neglect short-term variability and uncertainty of renewable energy, hourly chronological operation details, and physical nonlinear characteristics of the alternating current transmission network. As a result, existing conventional planning approaches may not work properly, and power systems reliability could be in jeopardy. In observing the limitations of existing conventional planning approaches and addressing new challenges of emerging power systems, the main scope of this project to develop co-optimization planning models within a multi-stage and multi-timescale framework. In particular, random contingencies, key uncertainty factors, and AC power flows are included to derive expansion plans while considering both long-term reliability and short-term flexibility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Communities in energy transition: exploring best practices and decision support tools to provide equitable outcomes

Abstract The U.S. coal industry has been in a state of decline for the past decade, a trend ushered by flat electricity demand, increased regulatory pressure, and market competition from cost-competitive clean energy sources. The receding economic viability of the coal industry has been acutely felt by the communities with immediate economic ties to coal-fired generation. With the energy transition underway, the question of how to engage communities as stakeholders in the decision-making process and address their needs through an equitable and just transition remains unresolved. To that end, this paper explores the economic, environmental, and social challenges presented by the energy transition at the community level, highlighting four case studies from transitioning coal-dependent communities across the United States to ultimately identify best practices in coal plant decommissioning processes. This paper weaves these community-identified best practices into two support tools—a decommissioning checklist and a redevelopment decision-making framework—that can be used to engage communities in the power plant retirement decision, the site reclamation phase, and eventual redevelopment of the site and revitalization of the surrounding community.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Rapid Decision Support Tool for Estimating Impacts of a Vadose Zone Volatile Organic Compound Source on Groundwater and Soil Gas

Diminishing rates of subsurface volatile contaminant removal by soil vapor extraction (SVE) oftentimes warrants an in‐depth performance assessment to guide remedy decision‐making processes. Such a performance assessment must include quantitative approaches to better understand the impact of remaining vadose zone contamination on soil gas and groundwater concentrations. The spreadsheet‐based Soil Vapor Extraction Endstate Tool (SVEET) software functionality has recently been expanded to facilitate quantitative performance assessments. The updated version, referred to as SVEET2, includes expansion of the input parameter ranges for describing a site (site geometry, source characteristics, etc.), an expanded list of contaminants, and incorporation of elements of the Vapor Intrusion Estimation Tool for Unsaturated‐zone Sources software to provide soil gas concentration estimates for use in vapor intrusion evaluation. As part of the update, SVEET2 was used to estimate the impact of a tetrachloroethene (PCE) vadose zone source on groundwater concentrations, comparing SVEET2 results to field‐observed values at an undisclosed site where SVE was recently terminated. PCE concentrations from three separate monitoring wells were estimated by SVEET2 to be within the range of 6.0–6.7 μg/L, as compared to actual field concentrations that ranged from 3 to 11 μg/L PCE. These data demonstrate that SVEET2 can rapidly provide representative quantitative estimates of impacts from a vadose zone contaminant source at field sites. Finally, in the context of the SVE performance assessment, such quantitative estimates provide a basis to support remedial and/or regulatory decisions regarding the continued need for vadose zone volatile organic compound remediation or technical justification for SVE termination, which can significantly reduce the cost to complete for a site.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Informing climate adaptation strategies using ecological simulation models and spatial decision support tools

Introduction: Forest landscapes offer resources and ecosystem services that are vital to the social, economic, and cultural well-being of human communities, but managing for these provisions can require socially and ecologically relevant trade-offs. We designed a spatial decision support model to reveal trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services in a large eastern Cascade Mountain landscape in Washington State, USA. Methods: We used process-based forest landscape (LANDIS-II) and hydrology (DHSVM) models to compare outcomes associated with 100 years of simulated forest and wildfire dynamics for two management scenarios, Wildfire only and Wildfire + Treatments. We then examined the strength and spatial distribution of potential treatment effects and trends in a set of resources and ecosystem services over the simulation period. Results: We found that wildfire area burned increased over time, but some impacts could be mitigated by adaptation treatments. Treatment benefits were not limited to treated areas. Interestingly, we observed neighborhood benefits where fire spread and severity were reduced not only in treated patches but in adjacent patches and landscapes as well, creating potential synergies among some resource benefits and services. Ordinations provided further evidence for two main kinds of outcomes. Positive ecological effects of treatments were greatest in upper elevation moist and cold forests, while positive benefits to human communities were aligned with drier, low- and mid-elevation forests closer to the wildland urban interface. Discussion: Our results contribute to improved understanding of synergies and tradeoffs linked to adaptation and restoration efforts in fire-prone forests and can be used to inform management aimed at rebuilding resilient, climate-adapted landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Surgical Decision-Making Tools in Breast Cancer: Predicting 2-Year Postoperative Physical, Sexual, and Psychosocial Well-Being following Mastectomy and Breast Reconstruction (INSPiRED 004)

Background: We sought to predict clinically meaningful changes in physical, sexual, and psychosocial well-being for women undergoing cancer-related mastectomy and breast reconstruction 2 years after surgery using machine learning (ML) algorithms trained on clinical and patient-reported outcomes data. Patients and Methods: We used data from women undergoing mastectomy and reconstruction at 11 study sites in North America to develop three distinct ML models. We used data of ten sites to predict clinically meaningful improvement or worsening by comparing pre-surgical scores with 2 year follow-up data measured by validated Breast-Q domains. We employed ten-fold cross-validation to train and test the algorithms, and then externally validated them using the 11th site’s data. We considered area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristics-curve (AUC) as the primary metric to evaluate performance. Results: Overall, between 1454 and 1538 patients completed 2 year follow-up with data for physical, sexual, and psychosocial well-being. In the hold-out validation set, our ML algorithms were able to predict clinically significant changes in physical well-being (chest and upper body) (worsened: AUC range 0.69–0.70; improved: AUC range 0.81–0.82), sexual well-being (worsened: AUC range 0.76–0.77; improved: AUC range 0.74–0.76), and psychosocial well-being (worsened: AUC range 0.64–0.66; improved: AUC range 0.66–0.66). Baseline patient-reported outcome (PRO) variables showed the largest influence on model predictions. Conclusions: Machine learning can predict long-term individual PROs of patients undergoing postmastectomy breast reconstruction with acceptable accuracy. This may better help patients and clinicians make informed decisions regarding expected long-term effect of treatment, facilitate patient-centered care, and ultimately improve postoperative health-related quality of life.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic benchmarking demonstrates large language models have not reached the diagnostic accuracy of traditional rare-disease decision support tools

Large language models (LLMs) show promise in supporting differential diagnosis, but their performance is challenging to evaluate due to the unstructured nature of their responses, and their accuracy compared to existing diagnostic tools is not well characterized. To assess the current capabilities of LLMs to diagnose genetic diseases, we benchmarked these models on 5213 previously published case reports using the Phenopacket Schema, the Human Phenotype Ontology and Mondo disease ontology. Prompts generated from each phenopacket were sent to seven LLMs, including four generalist models and three LLMs specialized for medical applications. The same phenopackets were used as input to a widely used diagnostic tool, Exomiser, in phenotype-only mode. The best LLM ranked the correct diagnosis first in 23.6% of cases, whereas Exomiser did so in 35.5% of cases. While the performance of LLMs for supporting differential diagnosis has been improving, it has not reached the level of commonly used traditional bioinformatics tools. Future research is needed to determine the best approach to incorporate LLMs into diagnostic pipelines.

Reese, Justin T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation of START: A Spent Nuclear Fuel Routing and Decision Support Tool

This is a technical presentation that does not take into account contractual limitations or obligations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). For example, under the provisions of the Standard Contract, spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters is not an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine

The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL’s Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

After the hurricane: Validating a resilience assessment methodology

With increasing utility grid outages in the United States, there is growing interest in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of grid outages. Working with the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a replicable energy resilience assessment methodology and investment decision tool to: (1) identify and score hazards and vulnerabilities at the site level; (2) analyze risks to energy infrastructure; and (3) identify and prioritize energy resilience investments. This work improves on existing resilience assessment methodologies and tools by combining a bottom-up, all-hazards assessment methodology with top-down geographic information system mapping capabilities to provide an innovative, dynamic tool for identifying and prioritizing actionable solutions. This process combines probabilistic forecasting with an iterative approach for continuously updating and reassessing risks to address temporal dynamism. Relationships among systems are modeled and visualized to estimate the effectiveness of resilience actions across multiple interdependent systems and inform financial priorities through cost-difficulty-impact trade-offs. The approach is validated in a case study at Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) in Florida, which experienced a Category 5 hurricane in 2018. The risks and mitigation strategies identified pre-hurricane are compared with post-hurricane, realized impacts. The assessment effectively identifies risks and actions to increase site energy resilience, but the methodology can be enhanced though greater consideration of the interdependencies between the energy system and related systems like transportation, communication, and food/water systems, which impact the recovery of the energy system and the base.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

City Decision Analysis Resources and Tools

The City Decision Analysis at Any Scale Workshop was held February 17-18, 2021. This brochure was created to provide participants with a collection of tools and resources that support planning and implementation of clean energy goals for communities and businesses.

ACES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based intelligent maintenance optimization framework for safety-critical systems

Abstract Maintenance optimization is a process for improving the efficiency of maintenance strategies and activities, considering various aspects of the target system and components, such as the probabilities of system failures and the cost of repair and replacement of a failed component. The improvement of maintenance optimization algorithms generally requires information from various data sources. For example, it may require the system risk information derived from risk analysis tools or the residual lifetime of a component from fault prognosis tools. The requirements of data acquisition (DAQ) and aggregation pose new challenges for maintenance management systems (MMSs) that implement and use these maintenance optimization algorithms. This paper proposes a multiple aspects maintenance ontology-based framework to facilitate DAQ from MMSs, online monitoring systems, fault detection and discrimination tools, risk assessment tools, decision-making tools, and component identification tools, and accelerate the implementation and verification of contemporary maintenance optimization models and algorithms. The proposed framework consists of a multi-aspect maintenance ontology with critical information for maintenance optimization and application interfaces for collecting information from various data sources, such as fault prognosis tools, online monitoring tools, risk assessment tools, and decision-making algorithms. In addition, this paper proposes a heuristic method for integrating concepts and properties from other existing ontologies into the proposed framework when the existing ontology is not fully compatible with the ontology under construction. Finally, the paper verifies the proposed ontology framework using a feedwater system designed for nuclear power plants with valves and filters as the components under maintenance.

Diao, Xiaoxu (ORCID:0000000346726352)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Harnessing Condorcet Methods to Improve Decision-making Based on Ranked Data

Decision-makers must often choose between multiple alternatives based on their relative merits across a variety of criteria. These multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems must be approached in an objective, measurable, and transparent fashion to obtain well-supported outcomes. The challenge of using sets of ranked data to identify the optimal choice is not unlike the challenge of using ranked ballots to identify the winner of an election in a preference voting system. As such, the methods of rank aggregation used in elections can be applied to help resolve MCDM problems. Previous research into the design of elections and ballots has yielded many algorithms with well-understood properties. A subset of these, called Condorcet methods, reliably identify the “Condorcet winner,” if it exists, giving the result that would defeat any other in a pairwise comparison. That, in addition to several other desirable qualities, makes Condorcet methods like the Schulze method, Ranked Pairs, and Copeland’s method, effective and scalable means for tackling MCDM problems. These rank aggregation methods have been implemented in JavaScript functions for incorporation into a web-based MCDM decision tool. These algorithms can be applied in a wide variety of contexts (for example, determining the “best” environmental remediation method or selecting a subcontractor) to facilitate effective decision-making. The performance of the JavaScript Condorcet prototype tool was compared across the implemented algorithms and with both a non-Condorcet rank aggregation method as well as an implementation of the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) algorithm.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

RouteE: A Vehicle Energy Consumption Prediction Engine

The emergence of connected and automated vehicles and smart cities technologies create the opportunity for new mobility modes and routing decision tools, among many others. To achieve maximum mobility and minimum energy consumption, it is critical to understand the energy cost of decisions and optimize accordingly. The Route Energy prediction model (RouteE) enables accurate estimation of energy consumption for a variety of vehicle types over trips or sub-trips where detailed drive cycle data are unavailable. Applications include vehicle route selection, energy accounting and optimization in transportation simulation, and corridor energy analyses, among others. The software is a Python package that includes a variety of pre-trained models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, RouteE also enables users to train custom models using their own data sets, making it a robust and valuable tool for both fast calculations and rigorous, data-rich research efforts. The pre-trained RouteE models are established using NREL's Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator paired with approximately 1 million miles of drive cycle data from the Transportation Secure Data Center, resulting in energy consumption behavior estimates over a representative sample of driving conditions for the United States. Validations have been performed using on-road fuel consumption data for conventional and electrified vehicle powertrains. Transferring the results of the on-road validation to a larger set of real-world origin-destination pairs, it is estimated that implementing the present methodology in a green-routing application would accurately select the route that consumes the least fuel 90% of the time. The novel machine learning techniques used in RouteE make it a flexible and robust tool for a variety of transportation applications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimality versus reality: Closing the gap between renewable energy decision models and government deployment in the United States

Energy decision models are widely used to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of renewable energy, as well as to help inform the deployment of these technologies. However, a gap exists between the optimal model solutions and what is deployed. This paper explores why these gaps exist in the public sector using the results of interviews with 20 federal, state, and city government agencies that have used the Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt™) model to inform energy decisions. We then propose adaptations to technical modeling capabilities, and communication of results, which may help increase clean energy deployment. This research may be useful to both analytical modelers and the organizations using such decision tools to inform policy, regulation, planning, and deployment of clean energy systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reinforcement Learning for Intentional Islanding in Resilient Power Transmission Systems

Intentional islanding is the process of identifying and deliberately decomposing the transmission network to form self-sustained islands from an endangered network during disruptions to improve resilience and security. Most existing intentional islanding models are offline resilience decision tools and hence do not provide outage responses in a timely manner. In this paper, a reinforcement learning (RL) based model for intentional islanding is developed, which offers real-time switching control, online deployability, and adaptability to varying system conditions. The intentional islanding process is formulated as a Markov decision process, where the optimal transmission switching policy is learned using the RL approach. The control policy is learned over an environment that encompasses a Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) model of the transmission network, facilitated by an interface to the standard openAI Gym framework. The proposed RL-based methodology aims to form stable and self-sustainable islands by ensuring voltage stability while reducing the power mismatch in the formed islands. A proximal policy optimization algorithm is designed, which is suitable for controlling the on/off status of the switches with multi-layer perceptron as value and actor networks. The effectiveness of the proposed framework in the self-recovery of the grid by island formation is applied on the modified IEEE 39-bus test network and validated by dynamic simulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

American cities in a time of global environmental change: the case of the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative

The Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory seeks a new paradigm for urban climate research. Motivated by deep uncertainties in urban climate and the future of urban systems, BSEC works collaboratively across institutions and stakeholder groups to co-generate the science needed to advance energy security and resilience to extreme events across the city of Baltimore, Maryland, USA, and to do so in a manner that can inform similar efforts in other cities. BSEC begins with stakeholder priorities (health, affordable energy, etc) and designs observation networks and models to deliver climate science to address them. This takes the form of an iterative collaborative cycle, in which an initial research strategy is repeatedly updated in conversation with community partners, and researchers and stakeholders learn from each other. To date, this cycle has included multiple rounds of collaborative deliberation on urban heat mitigation, in which a multicriteria decision tool has been updated with more community-relevant spatial structure and modified optimization metrics. The guiding objective of this cycle is to inform potential ‘secure and resilient pathways’ for energy and infrastructure. In doing so, BSEC addresses fundamental urban science questions in natural and social sciences. It also tests our ability to integrate this science in a manner that advances participatory decision-making for urban resilience.

climate↗