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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

A physics-constrained deep learning treatment of runaway electron dynamics

An adjoint formulation leveraging a physics-informed neural network (PINN) is employed to advance the density moment of a runaway electron (RE) distribution forward in time. A distinguishing feature of this approach is that once the adjoint problem is solved, its solution can be used to project the RE density forward in time for an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution of REs. Furthermore, by employing a PINN, a parametric solution to the adjoint problem can be learned. Thus, once trained, this adjoint-deep learning framework is able to efficiently project the RE density forward in time across various plasma conditions while still including a fully kinetic description of RE dynamics. As an example application, the temporal evolution of the density of primary electrons is studied, with particular emphasis on evaluating the decay of a RE population when below threshold. Predictions from the adjoint-deep learning framework are found to be in good agreement with a traditional relativistic electron Fokker–Planck solver, for several distinct initial conditions, and across an array of physics parameters. Once trained, the PINN thus provides a means of generating RE density time histories with exceptionally low online execution time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deciphering the Scattering of Mechanically Driven Polymers Using Deep Learning

Here, we present a deep learning approach for analyzing two-dimensional scattering data of semiflexible polymers under external forces. In our framework, scattering functions are compressed into a three-dimensional latent space using a Variational Autoencoder (VAE), and two converter networks establish a bidirectional mapping between the polymer parameters (bending modulus, stretching force, and steady shear) and the scattering functions. The training data are generated using off-lattice Monte Carlo simulations to avoid the orientational bias inherent in lattice models, ensuring robust sampling of polymer conformations. The feasibility of this bidirectional mapping is demonstrated by the organized distribution of polymer parameters in the latent space. By integrating the converter networks with the VAE, we obtain a generator that produces scattering functions from given polymer parameters and an inferrer that directly extracts polymer parameters from scattering data. While the generator can be utilized in a traditional least-squares fitting procedure, the inferrer produces comparable results in a single pass and operates 3 orders of magnitude faster. This approach offers a scalable automated tool for polymer scattering analysis and provides a promising foundation for extending the method to other scattering models, experimental validation, and the study of time-dependent scattering data.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Introduction to and comparison of deep learning and optimization approaches to analytical wake modeling of a tilted wind turbine

This paper introduces innovative optimization and deep learning techniques to enhance the prediction of complex wake dynamics in the downstream wind velocity of tilted wind turbines. Traditional methods for calibrating the Bastankhah wake model often lead to increased errors in wind velocity distribution due to overfitting of the local wake characteristics. To address this issue, we propose an additional global optimization step to reduce errors in wind velocity predictions with respect to various wake parameters. Despite this improvement, the Bastankhah model's axisymmetric Gaussian wake shape limits its accuracy for complex wake structures. Therefore, we also propose a deep learning approach, which demonstrates promising results by accurately modeling complex wake shapes across a broader range of tilt angles with minimal computational cost. The deep learning approach achieves near-identical predictions to high-fidelity large-eddy simulations, representing a promising advancement in wake modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved guided-wave acoustic defect detection and localization in pipes under varying temperature conditions using deep learning

Early defect detection in pipelines is critical across industries, particularly in the oil and gas sector, where failures result in significant maintenance costs and operational disruptions. Acoustic guided-wave techniques are widely used for nondestructive evaluation of pipeline defects due to their long-distance propagation capability. However, environmental variations, sensitivity limitations, and complex signal interpretation challenges limit the effectiveness of traditional signal processing approaches with guided-wave signals. Recent advances in deep learning methods have demonstrated remarkable success in solving complex real-world problems in many fields. In particular, deep-learning-based signal processing holds substantial promise to overcome limitations and challenges of conventional signal processing. This study presents a deep learning framework for pipeline inspection using acoustic guided-wave signals under temperature varying environments. The proposed framework employs a dual-path one-dimensional convolutional autoencoder that combines defect detection, localization, and temperature prediction functions. The proposed system utilizes multi-mode and broadband acoustic waves with an optimized number of sensors that provide high accuracy while retaining practical simplicity. Experimental validation is performed on a carbon steel pipe. The results indicate exceptional defect detection accuracy and precise defect localization with a mean absolute error of 66 mm. The proposed technique also predicts the effective average temperature of the pipe with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C. Comparative analysis shows superior performance of the proposed method over a traditional method previously developed by the authors' team. These results highlight the potential of integrating deep learning methods into guided-wave pipeline inspection systems to improve reliability under varying environmental conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accurate segmentation of localized corrosion in structural alloys via deep learning

This study presents a deep learning-based approach for the automated segmentation of corrosion damage in scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. The proposed method enables rapid and accurate segmentation of corrosion features in these SEM images, making it highly suitable for real-time applications such as automated microscopy. Specifically, a dedicated corrosion segmentation database tailored for this task is constructed. The newly constructed dataset, alongside data from two public databases, are employed to jointly train a deep learning-based model modified with a texture refinement module. Compared to the same model without the texture refinement module, the refined model substantially enhances the efficacy and efficiency of corrosion segmentation. Furthermore, the methodology developed here is extendable to segmentation tasks for other materials with similar resolution, texture, and contrast characteristics, thereby paving the way for accelerated and automated analysis in corrosion science and beyond.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of floating-point non-associativity on reproducibility for HPC and deep learning applications

Run to run variability in parallel programs caused by floating-point non-associativity has been known to significantly affect reproducibility in iterative algorithms, due to accumulating errors. Non-reproducibility can critically affect the efficiency and effectiveness of correctness testing for stochastic programs. Recently, the sensitivity of deep learning training and inference pipelines to floating-point non-associativity has been found to sometimes be extreme. It can prevent certification for commercial applications, accurate assessment of robustness and sensitivity, and bug detection. New approaches in scientific computing applications have coupled deep learning models with high-performance computing, leading to an aggravation of debugging and testing challenges. Here we perform an investigation of the statistical properties of floating-point non-associativity within modern parallel programming models, and analyze performance and productivity impacts of replacing atomic operations with deterministic alternatives on GPUs. We examine the recently-added deterministic options in PyTorch within the context of GPU deployment for deep learning, uncovering and quantifying the impacts of input parameters triggering run to run variability and reporting on the reliability and completeness of the documentation. Finally, we evaluate the strategy of exploiting automatic determinism that could be provided by deterministic hardware, using the Groq LPUTM accelerator for inference portions of the deep learning pipeline. We demonstrate the benefits that a hardware-based strategy can provide within reproducibility and correctness efforts.

Shanmugavelu, Sanjif↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning enabled spectral energy conversion for in situ exposure measurements

A detector-specific deep learning (DL) approach is presented for spectra-to-exposure conversion using large-format sodium iodide (NaI(Tl)) detectors deployed for in situ environmental radiation measurements in emergency response scenarios. Accurate determination of exposure from NaI spectra is challenging due to poor energy resolution, partial energy absorption, and the strong sensitivity of traditionally deployed analytical conversion methods to calibrated source geometry and pre-deployment assumptions. Here, to address these limitations, a multi-layer perceptron model was trained on a hybrid in situ /Monte Carlo dataset constructed to span a broad range of photon energies, spatial extents, and realistic deployment variability, representative of general in situ emergency response conditions. The DL model was evaluated against commonly fielded analytical approaches under matched simulation conditions, including a single-factor method, a G-function method, and a modeled pressurized ion chamber (PIC) baseline. This study was intentionally computational in scope to enable controlled, like-for-like comparisons between conversion techniques while minimizing confounding real-world variability. Comparison to the modeled PIC provides contextual benchmarking and is not intended as a field inter-comparison with deployed instruments. Across the evaluated 20 keV to 3 MeV energy range, the DL approach consistently exhibited higher accuracy and reduced variance relative to the analytical methods against a deterministically calculated exposure. This may indicate improved robustness to spectral complexity without reliance on source-, geometric-, or spectral region-specific optimization. While results do not represent real-world validation, the presented work demonstrates that deep learning may effectively learn the nonlinear detector response-to-exposure relationship for asymmetric NaI(Tl) detectors and offers a promising pathway for improving in situ exposure estimation using spectroscopic systems already integrated into initial real-time emergency response operations.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

PickerXL, A Large Deep Learning Model to Measure Arrival Times from Noisy Seismic Signals

Precisely measuring seismic arrival times is a labor-intensive task but is critical for both earthquake monitoring and subsurface imaging. Recently published deep learning models have demonstrated superior performance compared to traditional automatic approaches for picking arrival times. Although existing deep learning models have shown promising results, further advancements are necessary as their performance is not yet satisfactory especially when applied to new regions and station networks. Increasing model size has led to improved performance in other machine learning applications. Here, we aimed to investigate whether enlarging deep learning models can increase performance on accepted benchmarks. We trained three models of varying sizes, small (1X), medium (4X), and large (16X), using globally distributed local and regional earthquake signals and background noise waveforms from a benchmark dataset, Stanford Earthquake Dataset. Our results indicate that the largest model (PickerXL) outperforms both the smaller models and Seisbench implementation of the PhaseNet model, which has the same number of parameters as our small model. The PickerXL model’s enhanced capacity to extract complex patterns from seismograms contributes to its superior arrival picking abilities compared to the smaller model.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gradient-based optimization of complex nanoparticle heterostructures enabled by deep learning on heterogeneous graphs

Applications of deep learning (DL) to design nanomaterials are hampered by a lack of suitable data representations and training data. Here, in this study, we report efforts to overcome these limitations and leverage DL to optimize the nonlinear optical properties of core–shell upconverting nanoparticles (UCNPs). UCNPs, which have applications in fields such as biosensing, super-resolution microscopy and three-dimensional printing, can emit visible and ultraviolet light from near-infrared excitations. We report a large-scale dataset of UCNP emission spectra based on accurate but expensive kinetic Monte Carlo simulations (N > 6,000) and use these data to train a heterogeneous graph neural network using a physically motivated representation of UCNP nanostructure. Applying gradient-based optimization on the trained graph neural network, we identify structures with 6.5× higher predicted emission under 800-nm illumination than any UCNP in our training set. Our work reveals design principles for UCNP heterostructures and presents a roadmap for DL-based inverse design of nanomaterials.

Sivonxay, Eric [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

G2PDeep-v2: A Web-Based Deep-Learning Framework for Phenotype Prediction and Biomarker Discovery for All Organisms Using Multi-Omics Data

Multi-omics data offers rich insights into complex traits across organisms, yet integrating and analyzing these datasets for phenotype prediction and marker discovery remains challenging. Researchers need accessible tools that combine deep learning, hyperparameter optimization, visualization, and downstream analysis in a unified web platform. To address this, we developed G2PDeep-v2, a web-based platform powered by deep learning for phenotype prediction and marker discovery from multi-omics data across a wide range of organisms, including humans and plants. The server provides multiple services for researchers to create deep-learning models through an interactive interface and train these models using an automated hyperparameter tuning algorithm on high-performance computing resources. Users can visualize the results of phenotype and markers predictions and perform Gene Set Enrichment Analysis for the significant markers to provide insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying complex diseases, conditions and other biological phenotypes being studied.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Arm and shoulder muscle segmentation in axial MRI with UNet deep learning model

Quantifying individual upper-limb muscle volumes from MRI provides key insight into muscle-specific strength, deficits, and adaptations. Manual delineation is the gold standard but time‑intensive, and the performance of current deep learning approaches, particularly for small or anatomically complex muscles, remains incompletely characterized. We evaluated a state‑of‑the‑art deep learning framework across the entire upper limb and analyzed factors governing segmentation performance, with attention to the forearm. Three previously published MRI datasets (1.5 T, 3D GRE T1‑weighted; total n = 39) spanning young, middle‑aged, and older adults were curated and quality‑checked, including expert manual segmentations for 31 muscles. Following multiclass mask reconstruction, we trained three 3D nnU‑Net multiclass models matched to the muscle subsets present across datasets, using five‑fold cross‑validation and a composite Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) + cross entropy loss. Segmentation accuracy was assessed with DSC. Performance varied across muscles (mean DSC = 0.806 ± 0.098), ranging from 0.920 (Deltoid) to 0.461 (Extensor pollicis brevis). In uncertainty‑weighted regressions, muscle volume was positively associated with DSC (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), whereas training segmentation count and muscle orientation showed negligible associations (R2 ≤ 0.06). A weighted mixed‑effects model identified volume as the strongest evaluated predictor, explaining 23.9% of variance in DSC; orientation and training count each contributed <1%, leaving 61.5% unexplained. These results indicate that deep learning–based segmentation can accurately quantify muscle volume for many upper‑limb muscles but remains constrained for small, low‑contrast forearm muscles.

Gillespie, Samuel↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase Picking Beyond Local Distances: Where Waveform Filtering Still Matters for Deep Learning Models

Waveform filtering is a standard step in traditional seismic phase picking but often receives little attention in deep learning workflows, where models are typically trained on raw or minimally processed waveforms. Although this strategy performs well for local events, we show that performance can degrade substantially at regional distances. To address this limitation, we introduce two ways to incorporate multiband-filtered waveforms into deep learning phase pickers. The stacking approach concatenates filtered inputs along the channel dimension, while the branching approach processes each frequency band through a dedicated network branch before feature fusion. Both approaches can substantially improve performance across epicentral distances of 0° to 20°, but their effectiveness depends strongly on the selected frequency bands. Tests with multiple filter banks show that filter-bank design should be treated as part of model optimization rather than as a fixed preprocessing choice. Grad-CAM analysis of the branching model indicates that band importance varies among waveform samples and across training realizations, with only a weak overall preference for the 0.25 to 0.5 Hz band. These results show that no single filter band is consistently optimal and demonstrate that explicit feature engineering remains valuable for robust deep learning-based seismic phase picking.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large-scale deep learning for metastasis detection in pathology reports

Objectives No existing algorithm can reliably identify metastasis from pathology reports across multiple cancer types and the entire US population. In this study, we develop a deep learning model that automatically detects patients with metastatic cancer by using pathology reports from many laboratories and of multiple cancer types. Materials and Methods We use 60 471 unstructured pathology reports from 4 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries. The reports were coded into 1 of 3 labels: metastasis negative, metastases positive, or metastasis undetermined. We utilize a task-specific deep neural network trained from scratch and compare its performance with a widely used large language model (LLM). Results Our deep learning architecture trained on task-specific data outperforms a general-purpose LLM, with a recall of 0.894 compared to 0.824. We quantified model uncertainty and used it to defer reports for human review. We found that retaining 72.9% of reports increased recall from 0.894 to 0.969. Discussion A smaller deep learning architecture trained on task-specific data outperforms a general LLM. Equally critical to model performance is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification, achieved here through an abstention mechanism. Conclusions This study’s finding demonstrate the feasibility of developing algorithms to automatically identify metastatic cancer cases from unstructured pathology reports.

machine learning↗