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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Deep Neural Network for Accurate and Robust Prediction of the Glass Transition Temperature of Polyhydroxyalkanoate Homo- and Copolymers

The purpose of this study was to develop a data-driven machine learning model to predict the performance properties of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs), a group of biosourced polyesters featuring excellent performance, to guide future design and synthesis experiments. A deep neural network (DNN) machine learning model was built for predicting the glass transition temperature, Tg, of PHA homo- and copolymers. Molecular fingerprints were used to capture the structural and atomic information of PHA monomers. The other input variables included the molecular weight, the polydispersity index, and the percentage of each monomer in the homo- and copolymers. The results indicate that the DNN model achieves high accuracy in estimation of the glass transition temperature of PHAs. In addition, the symmetry of the DNN model is ensured by incorporating symmetry data in the training process. The DNN model achieved better performance than the support vector machine (SVD), a nonlinear ML model and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), a sparse linear regression model. The relative importance of factors affecting the DNN model prediction were analyzed. Sensitivity of the DNN model, including strategies to deal with missing data, were also investigated. Compared with commonly used machine learning models incorporating quantitative structure–property (QSPR) relationships, it does not require an explicit descriptor selection step but shows a comparable performance. The machine learning model framework can be readily extended to predict other properties.

quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three-dimensional cooperative inversion of airborne magnetic and gravity gradient data using deep-learning techniques

Using multiple geophysical methods has become a prevailing approach in numerous geophysical applications to investigate subsurface structures and parameters. These multimethod-based exploration strategies have the potential to greatly diminish uncertainties and ambiguities encountered during geophysical data analysis and interpretation. One of the applications is the cooperative inversion of airborne magnetic and gravity gradient data for the interpretation of data obtained in mineral, oil and gas, and geothermal explorations. In this paper, a unified cooperative inversion framework is designed by combining the standard separate inversions with a deep neural network (DNN), which serves as the link between different types of data. A well-trained DNN takes the separately inverted susceptibility and density models as the inputs and provides improved models that will be used as the initial models of deterministic inversions. A two-round iteration strategy is adopted to guarantee the reasonability of the recovered models and overall efficiency of the inversion. In addition, this deep-learning (DL)-based framework demonstrates excellent generalization abilities when tested on models that are entirely distinct from the training data sets. The framework can easily incorporate multiphysics without necessitating any structural changes to the network. Synthetic experiments validate that our DL-based method outperforms conventional separate inversions and cross-gradient-based joint inversion in view of the accuracy of the recovered models and inversion efficiency. Successful application to field data further verifies the effectiveness of our DL-based method.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

A deep learning approach to programmable RNA switches

Engineered RNA elements are programmable tools capable of detecting small molecules, proteins, and nucleic acids. Predicting the behavior of these synthetic biology components remains a challenge, a situation that could be addressed through enhanced pattern recognition from deep learning. Here, we investigate Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to predict toehold switch function as a canonical riboswitch model in synthetic biology. To facilitate DNN training, we synthesize and characterize in vivo a dataset of 91,534 toehold switches spanning 23 viral genomes and 906 human transcription factors. DNNs trained on nucleotide sequences outperform (R 2 = 0.43–0.70) previous state-of-the-art thermodynamic and kinetic models (R 2 = 0.04–0.15) and allow for human-understandable attention-visualizations (VIS4Map) to identify success and failure modes. This work shows that deep learning approaches can be used for functionality predictions and insight generation in RNA synthetic biology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synchrophasor Measurements-based Events Detection Using Deep Learning

Deep learning algorithms have been developed for phasor measurement units (PMUs) analysis aiming at providing grid operators to observe and react to significant real-time changes in the grid associated with multiple factors (e.g., power generation and load variations, different type of faults, and equipment mailfunction), or for offline post-event system diagnostics. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based deep neural network (DNN) is adopted and evaluated to identify the most appropriate model configurations for event detection and longer-term anomalous pattern extraction. The proposed DNN model shows the potential on long-term predictions with the ability to capture nonlinear and nonstationary mixture complex patterns in PMU datasets. Real-world PMU in the WECC system were used for model development and validation.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) evapotranspiration product Version 5.0: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

An accurate estimation of spatially and temporally continuous global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in the assessment of surface energy, water and carbon cycles. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ET product Version 4.0 (v4.0) based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was generated to estimate global terrestrial ET. However, certain uncertainty for the GLASS ET product v4.0 limits its application. In this study, we introduced the deep neural networks (DNN) merging framework to improve terrestrial ET estimation for GLASS ET product Version 5.0 (v5.0) generation by integrating five satellite-derived ET products [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET product (MOD16), Shuttleworth–Wallace dual-source ET product (SW), Priestley–Taylor-based ET product (PT-JPL), modified satellite-based Priestley–Taylor ET product (MS-PT) and simple hybrid ET product (SIM)]. We compared the performance of DNN method against other merging methods, including GLASS ET algorithm v4.0 (BMA), the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method and the random forest (RF) method, based on 195 global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers covering observations from 2000 through 2015. Validations indicated that the DNN had the highest accuracy among four merging methods across different land cover types, yielding the highest average determination coefficients (R 2 , 0.62), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE, 24.1 W/m 2 ) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE, 0.77) with a of 99% confidence interval. Compared with GLASS ET algorithm v4.0, the DNN improved on the R 2 by approximately 7% (p < 0.01) and the KGE by 10%. Based on the DNN, we then generated 8-day GLASS ET product v5.0 globally with a 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2015 driven by GLASS vegetation and surface net radiation (R n ) datasets and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) datasets. Finally, this global terrestrial ET product provides a valuable dataset for monitoring regional and global water resources and environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence Based on Deep Learning Initialization and Homotopy Continuation

Power flow forms the basis of many power system studies. With the increased penetration of renewable energy, grid planners tend to perform multiple power flow simulations under various operating conditions and not just selected snapshots at peak or light load conditions. Getting a converged AC power flow (ACPF) case remains a significant challenge for grid planners especially in large power grid networks. This paper proposes a two-stage approach to improve Newton-Raphson ACPF convergence and was applied to a 6102 bus Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The first stage utilizes a deep learning-based initializer with data re-training. Here a deep neural network (DNN) initializer is developed to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle guesses to aid in power flow convergence. This is because Newton-Raphson ACPF is quite sensitive to the initial conditions and bad initialization could lead to divergence. The DNN initializer includes a data re-training framework that improves the initializer's performance when faced with limited training data. The DNN initializer successfully solved 3,285 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatch and performed better than random forest and DC power flow initialization methods. ACPF cases not solved in this first stage are then passed through a hot-starting algorithm based on homotopy continuation with switched shunt control. The hot-starting algorithm successfully converged 416 cases out of the remaining 614 non-converging ACPF dispatch. In conclusion, the combined two-stage approach achieved a 94.9% success rate, by converging a total of 3,701 cases out of the initial 3,899 unsolved cases.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neural-based time series forecasting of loss of coolant accidents in nuclear power plants

During the last few years, deep learning in neural networks has demonstrated impressive successes in the areas of computer vision, speech and image recognition, text generation, and many others. However, sensitive engineering areas such as nuclear engineering benefited less from these efficient techniques. In this work, deep learning expert systems are utilized to model and predict time series progression of a design-basis nuclear accident, featuring a loss of coolant accident. Two major findings are accomplished in this work. First, the ability to train expert systems with high accuracy, which could help nuclear power plant operators to figure out plant responses during the accident. Second, building fast, efficient, and accurate deep models to simulate nuclear phenomena, which could be valuable to nuclear computational science. In this work, large amount of time series data is obtained from simulation tools by simulating different conditions of the base-case/nominal accident scenario. Four critical outputs/responses are monitored during the accident (e.g. temperature, pressure, break flow rate, water level). Two approaches are adopted in this work. The first approach is to use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) to fit all time steps and outputs in a single model. The second approach is to use long short-term memory (LSTM) to fit all time steps together for each reactor response separately. Both DNN and LSTM demonstrate very good performance in predicting the test and base-case scenarios, with accuracy as low as 92% and as high as 99%, where these test scenarios are unknown to the expert systems and are not included in the model training. In addition, both approaches demonstrate a significant reduction in computational costs, as the deep expert system is able to accurately predict the accident 100,000 times faster than the original simulation tool. Given sufficient data, the methodology adopted in this study demonstrates that DNN/LSTM expert systems can be used as a decision support system to model advanced time series phenomena within nuclear power plants with high accuracy and negligible computational costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics constrained learning for data-driven inverse modeling from sparse observations

Deep neural networks (DNN) have been used to model nonlinear relations between physical quantities. Those DNNs are embedded in physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDE) and trained by minimizing a loss function that measures the discrepancy between predictions and observations in some chosen norm. This loss function often includes the PDE constraints as a penalty term when only sparse observations are available. As a result, the PDE is only satisfied approximately by the solution. However, the penalty term typically slows down the convergence of the optimizer for stiff problems. We present a new approach that trains the embedded DNNs while numerically satisfying the PDE constraints. We develop an algorithm that enables differentiating both explicit and implicit numerical solvers in reverse-mode automatic differentiation. This allows the gradients of the DNNs and the PDE solvers to be computed in a unified framework. We demonstrate that our approach enjoys faster convergence and better stability in relatively stiff problems compared to the penalty method. Furthermore, our approach allows for the potential to solve and accelerate a wide range of data-driven inverse modeling, where the physical constraints are described by PDEs and need to be satisfied accurately.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Iterative sampling of expensive simulations for faster deep surrogate training

Deep neural network (DNN) surrogates of expensive physics simulations are enabling a rapid change in the way that common experimental design and analysis tasks are approached. Surrogate models allow simulations to be performed in parallel and separately from downstream tasks, thereby enabling analyses that would be impossible with the simulation in-the-loop; surrogates based on DNNs can effectively emulate diverse non-scalar data of the types collected in fusion and laboratory-astrophysics experiments. The challenge is in training the surrogate model, for which large ensembles of physics simulations must be run, preferably without wasting computational effort on uninteresting simulations. Here, in this paper, we present an iterative sampling scheme that can preferentially propose simulations in interesting regions of parameter space without neglecting unexplored regions, allowing high-quality and wide-ranging surrogate models to be trained using 2–3 times fewer simulations compare to space-filling designs. Our approach uses an explicit importance function defined on the simulation output space, balanced against a measure of simulation density which serves as a proxy for surrogate accuracy. It is easy to implement and can be tuned to find interesting simulations early in the study, allowing surrogates to be trained quickly and refined as new simulations become available; this represents an important step towards the routine generation of deep surrogate models quickly enough to be truly relevant to experimental work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Approach for Real-Time Quality Monitoring in Machining of Aerospace Alloy through Acoustic Emission Signal Transformation for DNN

Gamma titanium aluminide (γ-TiAl) is considered a high-performance, low-density replacement for nickel-based superalloys in the aerospace industry due to its high specific strength, which is retained at temperatures above 800 °C. However, low damage tolerance, i.e., brittle material behavior with a propensity to rapid crack propagation, has limited the application of γ-TiAl. Any cracks introduced during manufacturing would dramatically lower the useful (fatigue) life of γ-TiAl components, making the workpiece surface’s quality from finish machining a critical component to product quality and performance. To address this issue and enable more widespread use of γ-TiAl, this research aims to develop a real-time non-destructive evaluation (NDE) quality monitoring technique based on acoustic emission (AE) signals, wavelet transform, and deep neural networks (DNN). Previous efforts have opted for traditional approaches to AE signal analysis, using statistical feature extraction and classification, which face challenges such as the extraction of good/relevant features and low classification accuracy. Hence, this work proposes a novel AI-enabled method that uses a convolutional neural network (CNN) to extract rich and relevant features from a two-dimensional image representation of 1D time-domain AE signals (known as scalograms), subsequently classifying the AE signature based on pedigreed experimental data and finally predicting the process-induced surface quality. The results of the present work show good classification accuracy of 80.83% using scalogram images, in-situ experimental data, and a VGG-19 pre-trained neural network, establishing the significant potential for real-time quality monitoring in manufacturing processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data Using Deep Neural Networks

Subsurface permeability is a key parameter in watershed models that controls the contribution from the subsurface flow to stream flows. Since the permeability is difficult and expensive to measure directly at the spatial extent and resolution required by fully distributed watershed models, estimation through inverse modeling has had a long history in subsurface hydrology. The wide availability of stream surface flow data, compared to groundwater monitoring data, provides a new data source to infer soil and geologic properties using integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic models. As most of the existing methods have shown difficulty in dealing with highly nonlinear inverse problems, we explore the use of deep neural networks for inversion owing to their successes in mapping complex, highly nonlinear relationships. We train various deep neural network (DNN) models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

GRIDS-Net: Inverse shape design and identification of scatterers via geometric regularization and physics-embedded deep learning

This study presents a deep learning based methodology for both remote sensing and design of acoustic scatterers. The ability to determine the shape of a scatterer, either in the context of material design or sensing, plays a critical role in many practical engineering problems. This class of inverse problems is extremely challenging due to their high-dimensional, nonlinear, and ill-posed nature. To overcome these technical hurdles, we introduce a geometric regularization approach for deep neural networks (DNN) based on non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) and capable of predicting complex 2D scatterer geometries in a parsimonious dimensional representation. Then, this geometric regularization is combined with physics-embedded learning and integrated within a robust convolutional autoencoder (CAE) architecture to accurately predict the shape of 2D scatterers in the context of identification and inverse design problems. Further, an extensive numerical study is presented in order to showcase the remarkable ability of this approach to handle complex scatterer geometries while generating physically-consistent acoustic fields. The study also assesses and contrasts the role played by the (weakly) embedded physics in the convergence of the DNN predictions to a physically consistent inverse design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying uncertainty for deep learning based forecasting and flow-reconstruction using neural architecture search ensembles

Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do not provide uncertainty estimates, which are crucial for establishing the trustworthiness of these techniques in downstream decision making tasks and scenarios. In recent years, ensemble-based methods have achieved significant success for the uncertainty quantification in DNNs on a number of benchmark problems. However, their performance on real-world applications remains under-explored. In this work, we present an automated approach to DNN discovery and demonstrate how this may also be utilized for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we propose the use of a scalable neural and hyperparameter architecture search for discovering an ensemble of DNN models for complex dynamical systems. We highlight how the proposed method not only discovers high-performing neural network ensembles for our tasks, but also quantifies uncertainty seamlessly. This is achieved by using genetic algorithms and Bayesian optimization for sampling the search space of neural network architectures and hyperparameters. Subsequently, a model selection approach is used to identify candidate models for an ensemble set construction. Afterwards, a variance decomposition approach is used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions from the ensemble. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for two tasks — forecasting from historical data and flow reconstruction from sparse sensors for the sea-surface temperature. In conclusion, we demonstrate superior performance from the ensemble in contrast with individual high-performing models and other benchmarks.

Deep ensembles↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient learning of power grid voltage control strategies via model-based deep reinforcement learning

Here this article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results for model-free DRL-based methods in power systems control problems. But in power systems applications, these model-free methods have certain issues related to training time (clock time) and sample efficiency; both are critical for making state-of-the-art DRL algorithms practically applicable. DRL-agent learns an optimal policy via a trial-and-error method while interacting with the real-world environment. It is also desirable to minimize the direct interaction of the DRL agent with the real-world power grid due to its safety-critical nature. Additionally, the state-of-the-art DRL-based policies are mostly trained using a physics-based grid simulator where dynamic simulation is computationally intensive, lowering the training efficiency. We propose a novel model-based DRL framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based dynamic surrogate model (SM), instead of a real-world power grid or physics-based simulation, is utilized within the policy learning framework, making the process faster and more sample efficient. However, having stable training in model-based DRL is challenging because of the complex system dynamics of large-scale power systems. We addressed these issues by incorporating imitation learning to have a warm start in policy learning, reward-shaping, and multi-step loss in surrogate model training. Finally, we achieved 97.5% reduction in samples and 87.7% reduction in training time for an application to the IEEE 300-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-Learning-derived Boundary Layer Height from Meteorological Data over the SGP, GOAMAZON, CACTI

The planetary boundary-layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is an important parameter for various meteorological and climate studies. This study presents a multi-structure deep neural network (DNN) model, designed to estimate PBLH by integrating morning temperature profiles with surface meteorological observations. The DNN model is developed by leveraging a rich data set of PBLH derived from long-standing radiosonde records and augmented with high-resolution micropulse lidar and Doppler lidar observations. We access the performance of the DNN with an ensemble of 10 members, each featuring distinct hidden layer structures, which collectively yield a robust 27-year PBLH data set over the Southern Great Plains from 1994 to 2020. The influence of various meteorological factors on PBLH is rigorously analyzed through the importance test. Moreover, the DNN model's accuracy is evaluated against radiosonde observations and juxtaposed with conventional remote-sensing methodologies, including Doppler lidar, ceilometer, Raman lidar, and micropulse lidar. The DNN model exhibits reliable performance across diverse conditions and demonstrates lower biases relative to remote-sensing methods. In addition, the DNN model, originally trained over a plain region, demonstrates remarkable adaptability when applied to the heterogeneous terrains and climates encountered during the GoAmazon (tropical rainforest) and CACTI (middle-latitude mountain) campaigns. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning models in estimating PBLH, enhancing our understanding of boundary-layer dynamics with implications for enhancing the representation of PBL in weather forecasting and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning-derived planetary boundary layer height from conventional meteorological measurements

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is an important parameter for various meteorological and climate studies. This study presents a multi-structure deep neural network (DNN) model, which can estimate PBLH by integrating the morning temperature profiles and surface meteorological observations. The DNN model is developed by leveraging a rich dataset of PBLH derived from long-standing radiosonde records augmented with high-resolution micro-pulse lidar and Doppler lidar observations. We access the performance of the DNN with an ensemble of 10 members, each featuring distinct hidden-layer structures, which collectively yield a robust 27-year PBLH dataset over the southern Great Plains from 1994 to 2020. The influence of various meteorological factors on PBLH is rigorously analyzed through the importance test. Moreover, the DNN model's accuracy is evaluated against radiosonde observations and juxtaposed with conventional remote sensing methodologies, including Doppler lidar, ceilometer, Raman lidar, and micro-pulse lidar. The DNN model exhibits reliable performance across diverse conditions and demonstrates lower biases relative to remote sensing methods. In addition, the DNN model, originally trained over a plain region, demonstrates remarkable adaptability when applied to the heterogeneous terrains and climates encountered during the GoAmazon (Green Ocean Amazon; tropical rainforest) and CACTI (Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions; middle-latitude mountain) campaigns. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning models in estimating PBLH, enhancing our understanding of boundary layer processes with implications for improving the representation of PBL in weather forecasting and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗