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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Zentropy Theory for Transformative Functionalities of Magnetic and Superconducting Materials

The proposed research developed the zentropy theory through applications to complex magnetic materials and superconductors under the hypothesis that the emergent properties of complex magnetic materials and superconductors can be predicted by statistical mechanics of ergodic microstates with their partition functions computed from DFT-predicted free energies. The key objective is to develop approaches to systematically determine the types and number of microstates and the supercell size in DFT-based calculations through convergency of macroscopic functionalities, with the incorporation of our mixed-space approach accounting for the interactions between periodic supercells. In addition to use scientific intuitions to guide the design of important microstates, the key innovation of the proposed research is to integrate the domain knowledge and the material-property-descriptor database (MPDD) with 4 million microstates, which is supported by our deep neural network machine learning models (SIPFENN: structure-informed prediction of formation energy using neural networks) and integrated with our high throughput DFT Tool Kit (DFTTK). For complex magnetic materials, one of the objectives is to develop approaches to calculate short-range ordering from the statistical distribution of each microstate. For superconductors, the divergency of quasiparticle effective mass at a quantum critical point will be investigated, and the superconducting and non-superconducting microstates will be delineated through analysis of electronic band structure, density of states, charge density, and Fermi surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applications of Nickelate perovskites for neuromorphic computing from electronic structure and Machine Learning

While the limit of Moore's law is presently being reached with current microelectronic technologies, we need to develop new paradigms that overcome this limitation. In that respect, neuromorphic computing is a concept that emulates the neural behavior and response of the human brain, and it has been recognized as a promising alternative approach. In this research project, we will perform multi-fidelity scale bridging to explore the potential use of materials with metal to insulator transition for neuromorphic applications. In particular, rare earth nickelates are promising for such purposes, as the transition in these materials is quite sensitive to a broad set of different external stimuli. Our multi-fidelity approach will bridge the high-fidelity electronic structure calculations with classical potentials. We will bridge dynamical mean field theory with a classical atomistic representation via a deep learning force field. The neural network is trained with energies, charges, and forces obtained by accurate electronic structure theories based on Dynamical Mean Field Theory. The configurational space is generated from known crystal phases, ab initio molecular dynamics with exchange-correlation functionals corrected with the Hubbard model, disordered phases with different concentrations of oxygen vacancies, and nonsymmetrical positions and induced strain by grain interfaces or contact with a substrate. Strategies to train the model with a reduced number of training examples are obtained from active learning methods, and new structures for improving the learning process are generated by using machine learning autoencoders. This classical potential will be validated through a diversity of electronic structure methods and represents an important step to combine the flexibility and accuracy of first-principles with the speed of classical potentials. The generated multi-fidelity surrogate model will be used to understand the role of strain, oxygen vacancies, proton doping, the variation of the crystal phase, substrate effects, vibrational effects as the octahedral rotation, grain boundaries and defect effects on the response of a Metal to Insulator Transition (MIT) in correlated materials. Long time and large-scale simulations will help understand the role of different stimuli to control the hysteresis of the MIT, as it has been experimentally suggested. Selected configurations will be analyzed with higher-level theories to provide an accurate electronic description and to study how the orbitals and charges are rearranged under different conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-informed Deep Reinforcement Learning-based Control in Power systems

Incorporating physics information into the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) process is a promising approach for addressing the challenges faced in learning-based control design problems for physical systems. Power grid dynamics, being a physical system, adheres to specific physical laws, constraints, as well as operational and control rules. Therefore, consideration of such physics-based law improves the learning process drastically. In general, traditional grid control schemes rely on rule-based mechanisms that cannot adapt to changing operating conditions. To improve the adaptability and computation time, recent research has seen a surge of DRL-based applications in power grid control. A generic DRL-based control design imposes the system performance requirements through the design of reward functions. In some cases, some of the important physics information is injected through this reward function. However, due to the complex dynamics and large state-action space, learning an optimal DRL policy often becomes challenging. Inspired by the latest developments in general machine learning (ML) research, power system researchers have been investigating more direct ways of incorporating physics knowledge into DRL training. This chapter specifically focuses on these aspects of physics-informed DRL designs in grid control. It discusses the significance, applications, research gaps, and open problems that need to be addressed in future research.

artificial intelligence, machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural network representations of multiphase Equations of State

Abstract Equations of State model relations between thermodynamic variables and are ubiquitous in scientific modelling, appearing in modern day applications ranging from Astrophysics to Climate Science. The three desired properties of a general Equation of State model are adherence to the Laws of Thermodynamics, incorporation of phase transitions, and multiscale accuracy. Analytic models that adhere to all three are hard to develop and cumbersome to work with, often resulting in sacrificing one of these elements for the sake of efficiency. In this work, two deep-learning methods are proposed that provably satisfy the first and second conditions on a large-enough region of thermodynamic variable space. The first is based on learning the generating function (thermodynamic potential) while the second is based on structure-preserving, symplectic neural networks, respectively allowing modifications near or on phase transition regions. They can be used either “from scratch” to learn a full Equation of State, or in conjunction with a pre-existing consistent model, functioning as a modification that better adheres to experimental data. We formulate the theory and provide several computational examples to justify both approaches, highlighting their advantages and shortcomings.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning genetic perturbation effects with variational causal inference

Advances in sequencing technologies have enhanced the understanding of gene regulation in cells. In particular, Perturb-seq has enabled high-resolution profiling of the transcriptomic response to genetic perturbations at the single-cell level. This understanding has implications in functional genomics and potentially for identifying therapeutic targets. Various computational models have been developed to predict perturbational effects. While deep learning models excel at interpolating observed perturbational data, they tend to overfit in the lack of enough data and may not generalize well to unseen perturbations. In contrast, mechanistic models, such as linear causal models based on gene regulatory networks, hold greater potential for extrapolation, as they encapsulate regulatory information that can predict responses to unseen perturbations. However, their application has been limited to small studies due to overly simplistic assumptions, making them less effective in handling noisy, large-scale single-cell data. We propose a hybrid approach that combines a mechanistic causal model with variational deep learning, termed Single Cell Causal Variational Autoencoder (SCCVAE). The mechanistic model employs a learned regulatory network to represent perturbational changes as shift interventions that propagate through the learned network. SCCVAE integrates this mechanistic causal model into a variational autoencoder, generating rich, comprehensive transcriptomic responses. Our results indicate that SCCVAE exhibits superior performance over current state-of-the-art baselines for extrapolating to predict unseen perturbational responses. Additionally, for the observed perturbations, the latent space learned by SCCVAE allows for the identification of functional perturbation modules and simulation of single-gene knockdown experiments of varying penetrance, presenting a robust tool for interpreting and interpolating perturbational responses at the single-cell level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Koopman operators for causal discovery

Causal discovery aims to identify cause-effect mechanisms for better scientific understanding, explainable decision-making, and more accurate modeling. Standard statistical frameworks, such as Granger causality, lack the ability to quantify causal relationships in nonlinear dynamics due to the presence of complex feedback mechanisms, timescale mixing, and nonstationarity. Thus, applying these methods to study causal dynamics in real-world systems, such as the Earth, is a major challenge. Addressing this shortcoming, we leverage deep learning and a Koopman operator-theoretic formalism to present a class of causal discovery algorithms. Kausal uses deep Koopman operator methods to approximate nonlinear dynamics in a linearized vector space in which traditional causal inference methods such as Granger causality can be more easily applied. Our idealized experiments demonstrate Kausal’s superior ability in discovering and characterizing causal signals compared to existing deep learning and non-deep learning state-of-the-art approaches. Finally, the successful identification of major El Niño and La Niña events in observations showcases Kausal’s skill to handle real-world applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Discriminant Analysis (YADA): A Probabilistic Model for Machine Learning Applications

This paper presents a probabilistic model for various machine learning (ML) applications. While deep learning (DL) has produced state-of-the-art results in many domains, DL models are complex and over-parameterized, which leads to high uncertainty about what the model has learned, as well as its decision process. Further, DL models are not probabilistic, making reasoning about their output challenging. In contrast, the proposed model, referred to as Yet Another Discriminate Analysis(YADA), is less complex than other methods, is based on a mathematically rigorous foundation, and can be utilized for a wide variety of ML tasks including classification, explainability, and uncertainty quantification. YADA is thus competitive in most cases with many state-of-the-art DL models. Ideally, a probabilistic model would represent the full joint probability distribution of its features, but doing so is often computationally expensive and intractable. Hence, many probabilistic models assume that the features are either normally distributed, mutually independent, or both, which can severely limit their performance. YADA is an intermediate model that (1) captures the marginal distributions of each variable and the pairwise correlations between variables and (2) explicitly maps features to the space of multivariate Gaussian variables. Numerous mathematical properties of the YADA model can be derived, thereby improving the theoretic underpinnings of ML. Validation of the model can be statistically verified on new or held-out data using native properties of YADA. However, there are some engineering and practical challenges that we enumerate to make YADA more useful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gradient flow based phase-field modeling using separable neural networks

Allen–Cahn equation is a reaction–diffusion equation and is widely used for modeling phase separation. Machine learning methods for solving the Allen–Cahn equation in its strong form suffer from inaccuracies in collocation techniques, errors in computing higher-order spatial derivatives, and the large system size required by the space–time approach. To overcome these challenges, we propose solving the gradient flow of the Ginzburg–Landau free energy functional, which is equivalent to the Allen–Cahn equation, thereby avoiding the second-order spatial derivatives associated with the Allen–Cahn equation. A minimizing movement scheme is employed to solve the gradient flow problem, eliminating the complexities of a space–time approach. We utilize a separable neural network that efficiently represents the phase field through low-rank tensor decomposition. As we use the minimizing movement scheme to numerically solve the gradient flow problem, we thus, refer to the proposed method as the Separable Deep Minimizing Movement (SDMM) method. The evaluation of the functional in the minimizing movement scheme using the Gauss quadrature technique bypasses the inaccuracies associated with collocation techniques traditionally used to solve partial differential equations. A hyperbolic tangent transformation is introduced on the phase field prior to the evaluation of the functional to ensure that it remains strictly bounded within the values of the two phases. For this transformation, theoretical guarantee for energy stability of the minimizing movement scheme is established. Our results suggest that this transformation helps to improve the accuracy and efficiency significantly. The proposed method resolves the challenges faced by state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, outperforming them in both accuracy and efficiency. It is also the first machine learning method to achieve an order of magnitude speed improvement over the finite element method. In addition to its formulation and computational implementation, several case studies illustrate the applicability of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Scaling Laws of Deep ReLU and Deep Operator Network: A Theoretical Study

Neural scaling laws play a pivotal role in the performance of deep neural networks and have been observed in a wide range of tasks. However, a complete theoretical framework for understanding these scaling laws remains underdeveloped. In this paper, we explore the neural scaling laws for deep operator networks, which involve learning mappings between function spaces, with a focus on the Chen and Chen style architecture. These approaches, which include the popular Deep Operator Network (DeepONet), approximate the output functions using a linear combination of learnable basis functions and coefficients that depend on the input functions. We establish a theoretical framework to quantify the neural scaling laws by analyzing its approximation and generalization errors. We articulate the relationship between the approximation and generalization errors of deep operator networks and key factors such as network model size and training data size. Moreover, we address cases where input functions exhibit low-dimensional structures, allowing us to derive tighter error bounds. These results also hold for deep ReLU networks and other similar structures. Our results offer a partial explanation of the neural scaling laws in operator learning and provide a theoretical foundation for their applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

From clutter to clarity: Emergent neural operators via questionnaire metrics

Real-world datasets in chemical engineering and bioengineering processes—such as those from catalytic reactors, multiphase flows, polymerization reactors, bioreactors, and clinical trials—can often be unlabeled or disorganized, rendering the training of existing supervised learning models ineffective at learning the underlying dynamics. To salvage these datasets for decision-making, we first seek to obtain clarity from the cluttered data. Here, we present a framework for developing “structural” generative models, discovering emergent equations, and constructing efficient emulators from scrambled datasets by integrating unsupervised organizational learning techniques (Questionnaires) with advanced deep learning architectures (Deep Hidden Physics Models and Deep Operator Networks). Our approach is demonstrated on two illustrative model systems: (a) a 1D advection–diffusion partial differential equation representing a winding underground pipe and (b) an ensemble of Stuart–Landau oscillators, an agent-based system of coupled ordinary differential equations. In both cases, we successfully reconstruct meaningful spatial, temporal, and parameter embeddings from scrambled data, enabling good predictions of system dynamics. As a result, we highlight the framework’s potential for broader applications, enabling data-driven system identification in fields with inherently disorganized or hidden parameter spaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Object detection with deep learning for rare event search in the GADGET II TPC

In the pursuit of identifying rare two-particle events within the GADGET II Time Projection Chamber (TPC), this paper presents a comprehensive approach for leveraging Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and various data processing methods. To address the inherent complexities of 3D TPC track reconstructions, the data is expressed in 2D projections and 1D quantities. This approach capitalizes on the diverse data modalities of the TPC, allowing for the efficient representation of the distinct features of the 3D events, with no loss in topology uniqueness. Additionally, it leverages the computational efficiency of 2D CNNs and benefits from the extensive availability of pre-trained models. Given the scarcity of real training data for the rare events of interest, simulated events are used to train the models to detect real events. To account for potential distribution shifts when predominantly depending on simulations, significant perturbations are embedded within the simulations. This produces a broad parameter space that works to account for potential physics parameter and detector response variations and uncertainties. These parameter-varied simulations are used to train sensitive 2D CNN object detectors. When combined with 1D histogram peak detection algorithms, this multi-modal detection framework is highly adept at identifying rare, two-particle events in data taken during experiment 21072 at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB), demonstrating a 100% recall for events of interest. Here, we present the methods and outcomes of our investigation and discuss the potential future applications of these techniques.

Convolutional neural network↗
DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A physics-constrained deep learning treatment of runaway electron dynamics

An adjoint formulation leveraging a physics-informed neural network (PINN) is employed to advance the density moment of a runaway electron (RE) distribution forward in time. A distinguishing feature of this approach is that once the adjoint problem is solved, its solution can be used to project the RE density forward in time for an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution of REs. Furthermore, by employing a PINN, a parametric solution to the adjoint problem can be learned. Thus, once trained, this adjoint-deep learning framework is able to efficiently project the RE density forward in time across various plasma conditions while still including a fully kinetic description of RE dynamics. As an example application, the temporal evolution of the density of primary electrons is studied, with particular emphasis on evaluating the decay of a RE population when below threshold. Predictions from the adjoint-deep learning framework are found to be in good agreement with a traditional relativistic electron Fokker–Planck solver, for several distinct initial conditions, and across an array of physics parameters. Once trained, the PINN thus provides a means of generating RE density time histories with exceptionally low online execution time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active causal learning for decoding chemical complexities with targeted interventions

Abstract Predicting and enhancing inherent properties based on molecular structures is paramount to design tasks in medicine, materials science, and environmental management. Most of the current machine learning and deep learning approaches have become standard for predictions, but they face challenges when applied across different datasets due to reliance on correlations between molecular representation and target properties. These approaches typically depend on large datasets to capture the diversity within the chemical space, facilitating a more accurate approximation, interpolation, or extrapolation of the chemical behavior of molecules. In our research, we introduce an active learning approach that discerns underlying cause-effect relationships through strategic sampling with the use of a graph loss function. This method identifies the smallest subset of the dataset capable of encoding the most information representative of a much larger chemical space. The identified causal relations are then leveraged to conduct systematic interventions, optimizing the design task within a chemical space that the models have not encountered previously. While our implementation focused on the QM9 quantum-chemical dataset for a specific design task—finding molecules with a large dipole moment—our active causal learning approach, driven by intelligent sampling and interventions, holds potential for broader applications in molecular, materials design and discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗