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Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending

The economic impact of R and D spending, particularly NASA R and D spending, on the U. S. economy was evaluated. The crux of the methodology and hence the results revolve around the fact that it was necessary to consider both the demand effects of increased spending and the supply effects of a higher rate of technological growth and a larger total productive capacity. The demand effects are primarily short-run in nature, while the supply effects do not begin to have a significant effect on aggregate economic activity until the fifth year after increased expenditures have taken place. The short-term economic impact of alternative levels of NASA expenditures for 1975 was first examined. The long-term economic impact of increased levels of NASA R and D spending over a sustained period was then evaluated.

Evans, M. K.

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim

A Preliminary Data Model for Orbital Flight Dynamics in Shuttle Mission Control

The Orbital Flight Dynamics group in Shuttle Mission Control is investigating new user interfaces in a project called RIOTS [RIOTS 2000]. Traditionally, the individual functions of hardware and software guide the design of displays, which results in an aggregated, if not integrated interface. The human work system has then been designed and trained to navigate, operate and integrate the processors and displays. The aim of RIOTS is to reduce the cognitive demands of the flight controllers by redesigning the user interface to support the work of the flight controller. This document supports the RIOTS project by defining a preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 2 defines an information-centric perspective. An information-centric approach aims to reduce the cognitive workload of the flight controllers by reducing the need for manual integration of information across processors and displays. Section 3 describes the Orbital Flight Dynamics domain. Section 4 defines the preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 5 examines the implications of mapping the data model to Orbital Flight Dynamics current information systems. Two recurring patterns are identified in the Orbital Flight Dynamics work the iteration/rework cycle and the decision-making/information integration/mirroring role relationship. Section 6 identifies new requirements on Orbital Flight Dynamics work and makes recommendations based on changing the information environment, changing the implementation of the data model, and changing the two recurring patterns.

ONeill, John

Optimum Strategies for Selecting Descent Flight-Path Angles

An information processing system and method for adaptively selecting an aircraft descent flight path for an aircraft, are provided. The system receives flight adaptation parameters, including aircraft flight descent time period, aircraft flight descent airspace region, and aircraft flight descent flyability constraints. The system queries a plurality of flight data sources and retrieves flight information including any of winds and temperatures aloft data, airspace/navigation constraints, airspace traffic demand, and airspace arrival delay model. The system calculates a set of candidate descent profiles, each defined by at least one of a flight path angle and a descent rate, and each including an aggregated total fuel consumption value for the aircraft following a calculated trajectory, and a flyability constraints metric for the calculated trajectory. The system selects a best candidate descent profile having the least fuel consumption value while the fly ability constraints metric remains within aircraft flight descent flyability constraints.

Wu, Minghong G.

An experimental methodology for a fuzzy set preference model

A flexible fuzzy set preference model first requires approximate methodologies for implementation. Fuzzy sets must be defined for each individual consumer using computer software, requiring a minimum of time and expertise on the part of the consumer. The amount of information needed in defining sets must also be established. The model itself must adapt fully to the subject's choice of attributes (vague or precise), attribute levels, and importance weights. The resulting individual-level model should be fully adapted to each consumer. The methodologies needed to develop this model will be equally useful in a new generation of intelligent systems which interact with ordinary consumers, controlling electronic devices through fuzzy expert systems or making recommendations based on a variety of inputs. The power of personal computers and their acceptance by consumers has yet to be fully utilized to create interactive knowledge systems that fully adapt their function to the user. Understanding individual consumer preferences is critical to the design of new products and the estimation of demand (market share) for existing products, which in turn is an input to management systems concerned with production and distribution. The question of what to make, for whom to make it and how much to make requires an understanding of the customer's preferences and the trade-offs that exist between alternatives. Conjoint analysis is a widely used methodology which de-composes an overall preference for an object into a combination of preferences for its constituent parts (attributes such as taste and price), which are combined using an appropriate combination function. Preferences are often expressed using linguistic terms which cannot be represented in conjoint models. Current models are also not implemented an individual level, making it difficult to reach meaningful conclusions about the cause of an individual's behavior from an aggregate model. The combination of complex aggregate models and vague linguistic preferences has greatly limited the usefulness and predictive validity of existing preference models. A fuzzy set preference model that uses linguistic variables and a fully interactive implementation should be able to simultaneously address these issues and substantially improve the accuracy of demand estimates. The parallel implementation of crisp and fuzzy conjoint models using identical data not only validates the fuzzy set model but also provides an opportunity to assess the impact of fuzzy set definitions and individual attribute choices implemented in the interactive methodology developed in this research. The generalized experimental tools needed for conjoint models can also be applied to many other types of intelligent systems.

Turksen, I. B.

Communications platform payload definition study, executive summary

Large geostationary communications platforms have been investigated in a number of studies since 1974 as a possible means to more effectively utilize the geostationary orbital arc and electromagnetic spectrum and to reduce overall satellite communications system costs. This NASA Lewis sponsored study addresses the commercial feasibility of various communications platform payload concepts circa 1998. It defines promising payload concepts, estimates recurring costs and identifies critical technologies needed to permit eventual commercialization. Ten communications service aggregation scenarios describing potential groupings of services were developed for a range of conditions. Payload concepts were defined for four of these scenarios: (1) Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS), meet 100% of CONUS plus Canada demand with a single platform; (2) Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) (Trunking + Customer Premises Service (CPS), meet 20% of CONUS demands; (3) FSS (Trunking + video distribution), 10 to 13% of CONUS demand; and (4) FSS (20% of demand) + Inter Satellite Links (ISL) + TDRSS/TDAS Data Distribution.

Clopp, H. W.

Communications platform payload definition study

Large geostationary communications platforms were investigated in a number of studies since 1974 as a possible means to more effectively utilize the geostationary arc and electromagnetic spectrum and to reduce overall satellite communications system costs. The commercial feasibility of various communications platform payload concepts circa 1998 was addressed. Promising payload concepts were defined, recurring costs were estimated, and critical technologies needed to enable eventual commercialization were identified. Ten communications service aggregation scenarios describing potential groupings of service were developed for a range of conditions. Payload concepts were defined for four of these scenarios: (1) Land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) meets 100% of Contiguous United States (CONUS) plus Canada demand with a single platform; (2) Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) (trunking + Customer Premises Service (CPS)), meet 20% of CONUS demand;(3) FSS (trunking + CPS + video distribution), 10 to 13% of CONUS demand; and (4) FSS (20% of demand) + Inter Satellite Links (ISL) + Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS)/Tracking and Data Acquisition System (TDAS) Data Distribution.

Clopp, H. W.

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension. Volume 1: Background and summary

The framework for a model of travel demand which will be useful in predicting the total market for air travel between two cities is discussed. Variables to be used in determining the need for air transportation where none currently exists and the effect of changes in system characteristics on attracting latent demand are identified. Existing models are examined in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. Much of the existing behavioral research in travel demand is incorporated to allow the inclusion of non-economic factors, such as convenience. The model developed is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed.

Jacobson, I. D.

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending: Executive summary

An evaluation of the economic impact of NASA research and development programs is made. The methodology and the results revolve around the interrelationships existing between the demand and supply effects of increased research and development spending, in particular, NASA research and development spending. The INFORUM Inter-Industry Forecasing Model is used to measure the short-run economic impact of alternative levels of NASA expenditures for 1975. An aggregate production function approach is used to develop the data series necessary to measure the impact of NASA research and development spending, and other determinants of technological progress, on the rate of growth in productivity of the U. S. economy. The measured relationship between NASA research and development spending and technological progress is simulated in the Chase Macroeconometric Model to measure the immediate, intermediate, and long-run economic impact of increased NASA research and development spending over a sustained period.

Evans, M. K.

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

Jacobson, I. D.

Recommendations Emerging from an Analysis of NASA's Deep Space Communications Capacity

During 2016-2017, NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Office chartered a study of Deep Space Network (DSN) communications capacity relative to projected future-mission demand over the next 30 years. In this paper, we briefly describe the methodology used to analyze capacity vs. demand over such a broad timeframe, summarize key findings emerging from the analysis, and discuss the associated recommendations. Performing the analysis entailed: identifying key factors shaping the anticipated future mission set, identifying several alternative future mission set scenarios consistent with these factors, and then analyzing each mission set scenario in terms of required antenna capacity, downlink and uplink capabilities, and spectrum as a function of time. On the basis of these aggregate requirements, DSN loading simulations were then conducted that examined how well each of the postulated mission sets could load up onto the the DSN’s “in-plan” architecture. To the extent that capacity shortfalls emerged during these baseline simulations, architectural solutions to the shortfalls were then postulated and tested via additional simulations. In general, the trend analyses and baseline loading simulations indicated a significant progression in challenges over the next three decades. In the current decade, the DSN appeared to be operating very close to capacity. The first human exploration mission and its secondary payload launch opportunities for cubesats traveling beyond GEO contributed to this loading. As a consequence, the main challenge appeared to be managing peak assetcontention periods. In the next decade, the DSN continued to operate close to capacity but also began transitioning to more frequent human mission support. Upgrading for, and operating, a human-rated system while continuing to meet robotic mission customer requirements emerged as the key challenge. In the 2030’s and beyond, simulations suggested a need for fundamentally new capability and capacity. The high data rates and long link distances characteristic of human Mars exploration drove requirements far beyond what is currently “in plan.” The key challenge then became determining the most cost-effective combination of RF and optical assets for communicating with the postulated human Mars assets while still providing for the needs of all the other missions across the solar system. Various link budget, visibility, and loading analyses ultimately suggested that the human Mars exploration demands of the 2030’s could best be addressed with two cross-linked RF-optical areostationary relays (or an areostationary relay and deep space habitat) providing a dual “trunk link” to an array of 2-to-3 additional 34m beam waveguide antennas and an ~8.5m optical antenna at each DSN Complex. The dual “trunk link” would enable the same amount of total data return to Earth as a single trunk link at twice the data rate, but with only half the required array size on the ground, assuming use of Multiple Spacecraft Per Antenna (MSPA) techniques. MSPA techniques, including a Multiple Uplink Per Antenna (MUPA) technique currently under investigation, also showed promise for reducing asset contention in the decades prior to human Mars exploration.

Lee, Carlyn-Ann

Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production - Can Earth Keep Up?

The amount of Earth's vegetation or net primary production required to support human activities is powerful measure of aggregate human impacts on the biosphere. Biophysical models applied to consumption statistics were used to estimate the annual amount of net primary production in the form of elemental carbon required for food, fibre, and fuel-wood by the global population. The calculations were then compared to satellite-based estimates of Earth's average net primary production to produce a geographically explicit balance sheet of net primary production "supply" and "demand". Humans consume 20% of Earth's net primary production (11.5 petagrams carbon) annually and this percentage varies regionally from 6% (South America) to over 70% (Europe and Asia), and locally from near 0% (central Australia) to over 30,000% (New York City, USA). The uneven footprint of human consumption and related environmental impacts, indicate the degree to which human populations are vulnerable to climate change and suggest policy options for slowing future growth of NPP demand.

Imhoff, Marc L.

A Framework for Dimensioning VDL-2 Air-Ground Networks

This paper describes a framework developed at MITRE for dimensioning a Very High Frequency (VHF) Digital Link Mode 2 (VDL-2) Air-to-Ground network. This framework was developed to support the FAA's Data Communications (Data Comm) program by providing estimates of expected capacity required for the air-ground network services that will support Controller-Pilot-Data-Link Communications (CPDLC), as well as the spectrum needed to operate the system at required levels of performance. The Data Comm program is part of the FAA's NextGen initiative to implement advanced communication capabilities in the National Airspace System (NAS). The first component of the framework is the radio-frequency (RF) coverage design for the network ground stations. Then we proceed to describe the approach used to assess the aircraft geographical distribution and the data traffic demand expected in the network. The next step is the resource allocation utilizing optimization algorithms developed in MITRE's Spectrum ProspectorTM tool to propose frequency assignment solutions, and a NASA-developed VDL-2 tool to perform simulations and determine whether a proposed plan meets the desired performance requirements. The framework presented is capable of providing quantitative estimates of multiple variables related to the air-ground network, in order to satisfy established coverage, capacity and latency performance requirements. Outputs include: coverage provided at different altitudes; data capacity required in the network, aggregated or on a per ground station basis; spectrum (pool of frequencies) needed for the system to meet a target performance; optimized frequency plan for a given scenario; expected performance given spectrum available; and, estimates of throughput distributions for a given scenario. We conclude with a discussion aimed at providing insight into the tradeoffs and challenges identified with respect to radio resource management for VDL-2 air-ground networks.

Aviation

How the Allocation of Lander Functions Impacts Human Lunar Exploration Architecture Propellant Demands

As NASA looks to the moon as a proving ground for the technologies required to conduct the first human exploration campaign of Mars, this study assesses the potential propellant demands that a sustained human lunar presence would require. In particular, this study evaluates how the allocation and distribution of vehicle functions to a different number of vehicles can impact the propellant required to conduct a human lunar exploration mission. Four different transportation architectures for human lunar exploration and three different refueling assumptions were defined. The impact on the propellant required for a mission was assessed for all architectures and refueling assumptions for ranges of crew payload mass, vehicle inert mass fraction, and a sensitivity to the mission maneuver velocity magnitudes. The results of this analysis show that aggregating vehicle functions to a single-stage lander vehicle can have a positive impact on the architecture's level of vehicle reusability and that an increase in the number of refueling opportunities reduces the mass of the vehicles and of the propellant required per mission.

Matteo A. Clark

The Role of the NASA Global Hawk Link Module as an Information Nexus For Atmospheric Mapping Missions

The Link Module described in this paper was developed for the NASA Uninhabited Aerial System (UAS) Global Hawk Pacific Mission (GloPAC) Airborne Science Campaign; four flights of 30 hour duration, supporting the Aura Validation Experiment (AVE). It was used again during the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, a NASA Earth Science field experiment to better understand how tropical storms form and develop into major hurricanes. In these missions, the Link Module negotiated all communication over the high bandwidth Ku satellite link, archived all the science data from onboard experiments in a spatially enabled database, routed command and control of the instruments from the Global Hawk Operations Center, and re-transmitted select data sets directly to experimenters control and analysis systems. The availability of aggregated information from collections of sensors, and remote control capabilities, in real-time, is revolutionizing the way Airborne Science is being conducted. The Link Module NG now being flown in support of the NASA Earth Venture missions, the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission, and Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (A TTREX) mission, has advanced data fusion technologies that are further advancing the Scientific productivity, flexibility and robustness of these systems. On-the-fly traffic shaping has been developed to allow the high definition video, used for critical flight control segments, to dynamically allocate variable bandwidth on demand. Historically, the Link Module evolved from the instrument and communication interface controller used by NASA's Pathfinder and Pathfinder plus solar powered UAS's in the late 1990' s. It later was expanded for use in the AIRDAS four channel scanner flown on the NASA Altus UAS, and then again to a module in the AMS twelve channel multispectral scanner flying on the NASA (Predator-b) Ikhana UAS. The current system is the answer to the challenges imposed by extremely long duration UASs, with on-board multi-instrument (>= 12) Sensor Webs.

Hurricanes

Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

sustainable-development goals