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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

CondiDiag1.0: a flexible online diagnostic tool for conditional sampling and budget analysis in the E3SM atmosphere model (EAM)

Abstract. Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the physical mechanisms that modify wind plant blockage in stable boundary layers

Abstract. Wind plants slow down the approaching wind, a phenomenon known as blockage. Wind plant blockage undermines turbine performance for front-row turbines and potentially for turbines deeper into the array. We use large-eddy simulations to characterize blockage upstream of a finite-size wind plant in flat terrain for different atmospheric stability conditions and investigate the physical mechanisms modifying the flow upstream of the turbines. To examine the influence of atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stably stratified boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. For a wind plant, a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces stronger stably stratified flow in the boundary layer, amplifies blockage. As a novelty, we investigate the physical mechanisms amplifying blockage by evaluating the different terms in the momentum conservation equation within the turbine rotor layer. The velocity deceleration upstream of a wind plant is caused by an adverse pressure gradient and momentum advection out of the turbine rotor layer. The cumulative deceleration of the flow upstream of the front-row turbines instigates vertical motions. The horizontal flow is diverted vertically, reducing momentum availability in the turbine rotor layer. Although the adverse pressure gradient upstream of the wind plant remains unchanged with atmospheric stability, vertical advection of horizontal momentum is amplified in the more strongly stable boundary layer, mainly by larger shear of the horizontal velocity, thus increasing the blockage effect.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning approaches in the analysis of mass absorption cross-section of black carbon aerosols: Aerosol composition dependencies and sensitivity analyses

Physics-based models typically require an in-depth understanding of a phenomenon and assumptions of the underlying process(es), which are often hard to obtain in practice, whereas data-driven machine learning models learn the structure and patterns in the training data without any prior theoretical assumptions and then use inference to develop useful predictions. A novel machine learning-based algorithm has been previously developed for the prediction of black carbon mass absorption cross-section (MAC BC ) and applied to a variety of different atmospheric environments. In contrast to light scattering theories which require assumptions about the underlying physics, this algorithm uses time-series data of aerosol properties to estimate the temporally-varying MAC BC at 870 nm. Here, we analyze our algorithm and discuss the influence of aerosol optical properties (such as Ångström exponents and single scattering albedo) and chemical composition on the model outputs and the associated accuracy. Additionally, we conduct sensitivity analyses on our models to understand how the predictions change in response to different sets of input variables. Our support vector machine (SVM) for regression model is the least sensitive to variations in the input variables, although all models tend to exhibit a degradation to their accuracy when scattering Ångström exponents are less than one.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating the architecture and internal structure of the TOI-561 system planets with CHEOPS, HARPS-N, and TESS

ABSTRACT We present a precise characterization of the TOI-561 planetary system obtained by combining previously published data with TESS and CHEOPS photometry, and a new set of 62 HARPS-N radial velocities (RVs). Our joint analysis confirms the presence of four transiting planets, namely TOI-561 b (P = 0.45 d, R = 1.42 R⊕, M = 2.0 M⊕), c (P = 10.78 d, R = 2.91 R⊕, M = 5.4 M⊕), d (P = 25.7 d, R = 2.82 R⊕, M = 13.2 M⊕), and e (P = 77 d, R = 2.55 R⊕, M = 12.6 R⊕). Moreover, we identify an additional, long-period signal (>450 d) in the RVs, which could be due to either an external planetary companion or to stellar magnetic activity. The precise masses and radii obtained for the four planets allowed us to conduct interior structure and atmospheric escape modelling. TOI-561 b is confirmed to be the lowest density (ρb = 3.8 ± 0.5 g cm−3) ultra-short period (USP) planet known to date, and the low metallicity of the host star makes it consistent with the general bulk density-stellar metallicity trend. According to our interior structure modelling, planet b has basically no gas envelope, and it could host a certain amount of water. In contrast, TOI-561 c, d, and e likely retained an H/He envelope, in addition to a possibly large water layer. The inferred planetary compositions suggest different atmospheric evolutionary paths, with planets b and c having experienced significant gas loss, and planets d and e showing an atmospheric content consistent with the original one. The uniqueness of the USP planet, the presence of the long-period planet TOI-561 e, and the complex architecture make this system an appealing target for follow-up studies.

Lacedelli, G. (ORCID:0000000241977374)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Updraft Width Modulates Ambient Atmospheric Controls on Convective Cloud Depth

Abstract The depth of convective clouds affects vertical transport of atmospheric constituents, influencing downstream weather and climate. Atmospheric controls on the maximum depth reached by moist convection are investigated with radar‐tracked convective cells tagged with sounding‐derived atmospheric parameters from a field campaign in central Argentina. Regression analyses show that narrow (<12‐km diameter) and wide (>16‐km diameter) cell depths respond to disparate factors, where cell areas are defined using composite reflectivity signatures. Undiluted lifted parcel indices including convective available potential energy (CAPE) and level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) are top predictors of wide cell maximum depth while mid‐tropospheric relative humidity is the top predictor of narrow cell maximum depth. Because narrow cells are more numerous than wide cells, the overall outcome of the full cell population does not strongly correlate with CAPE and LNB conditions. Tracked cells and atmospheric conditions in a simulation with 3‐km grid spacing covering the field campaign produce similar results to those observed. Narrow cells that are relatively deep have a cooler and moister mid‐troposphere with weaker free tropospheric subsidence, while relatively deep wide cells have much warmer and moister lower tropospheric conditions. These atmospheric differences are present 1 hr before cell initiation at both a fixed observing site and variable cell initiation locations. Simulated narrow cell maximum equivalent potential temperature decreases with height at a rate similar to the ambient vertical gradient, causing these cells to fall short of their LNB and supporting the view that entrainment‐driven dilution is a dominant control on their depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particle phase-state variability in the North Atlantic free troposphere during summertime is determined by atmospheric transport patterns and sources

Abstract. Free tropospheric aerosol particles have important but poorly constrained climate effects due to transformations of their physicochemical properties during long-range transport. In this study, we investigate the chemical composition and provide an overview of the phase states of individual particles that have undergone long-range transport over the North Atlantic Ocean in June and July 2014, 2015, and 2017 to the Observatory of Mount Pico (OMP) in the Azores. The OMP is an ideal site for studying long-range-transported free tropospheric particles because local emissions have a negligible influence and contributions from the boundary layer are rare. We used the FLEXible PARTicle Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) to determine the origins and transport trajectories of sampled air masses and found that most of them originated from North America and recirculated over the North Atlantic Ocean. The FLEXPART analysis showed that the sampled air masses were highly aged (average plume age >10 d). Size-resolved chemical compositions of individual particles were probed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (CCSEM-EDX) and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy with near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM-NEXAFS). CCSEM-EDX results showed that the most abundant particle types were carbonaceous (∼ 29.9 % to 82.0 %), sea salt (∼ 0.3 % to 31.6 %), and sea salt with sulfate (∼ 2.4 % to 31.5 %). We used a tilted stage interfaced within an environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) to determine the phase states of individual submicron particles. We found that most particles (∼ 47 % to 99 %) were in the liquid state at the time of collection due to inorganic inclusions. Moreover, we also observed substantial fractions of solid and semisolid particles (∼ 0 % to 30 % and ∼ 1 % to 42 %, respectively) during different transport patterns and events, reflecting the particles' phase-state variability for different atmospheric transport events and sources. Combining phase state measurements with FLEXPART CO tracer analysis, we found that wildfire-influenced plumes can result in particles with a wide range of viscosities after long-range transport in the free troposphere. We also used temperature and RH values extracted from the Global Forecast System (GFS) along the FLEXPART-simulated path to predict the phase state of the particles during transport and found that neglecting internal mixing with inorganics would lead to an overestimation of the viscosity of free tropospheric particles. Our findings warrant future investigation aiming at the quantitative assessment of the influence of internal mixing on the phase states of the individual particles. This study also provides insights into the chemical composition and phase state of free tropospheric particles, which can help models to reduce uncertainties about the effects of ambient aerosol particles on climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fracture behavior of a melt-infiltration-processed SiC/Si composite at 900°C in argon, air, and steam

The fracture behavior of a melt-infiltration-processed SiC/Si composite, used to mimic the matrices of industrial fiber-reinforced ceramic composites, was examined in different atmospheres and temperatures. Specimens tested in four-point bending at 900 °C in oxygen-gettered argon, dry air, or steam-rich atmospheres exhibited higher average fracture strengths than specimens tested at 25°C. Higher mean fracture strength values were obtained for specimens tested in dry air or in a steam-rich atmosphere at 900°C than for specimens tested in high-purity, oxygen-gettered argon at this temperature. The increased fracture strengths obtained in air and in steam-rich atmospheres coincided with increased specimen oxidation and apparent oxide filling and blunting of flaws in these composites. Further, a transition in the location of catastrophic failure, from sites of preexisting damage created by Vickers indentations for tests in argon to other locations for tests in air or steam-rich atmospheres, was also consistent with such apparent oxide filling/blunting of indentation-induced flaws.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the impact of multivalent substitution on high-temperature electrical conductivity in doped lanthanum chromite perovskites: An experimental and ab-initio study

Doped LaCrO 3 perovskites hold promise as robust materials for electrical interconnects and sensor applications in harsh environments. In this work, we investigated the high-temperature behavior of La 1–x Sr x CrO 3 , La 1–x Ca x CrO 3 and La 0.8 Sr 0.2 Cr 1-x Mn x O3 (0.1 ≤ x ≤ 0.4) through a combination of computational modeling and physical characterization up to 1500 °C. Crystalline structural properties were determined and compared with ab-initio calculations, which demonstrated excellent agreement with experimental findings. High-temperature electrical conductivity measurements were performed under different atmospheres. Calcium and strontium/manganese co-doped lanthanum chromites exhibited typical semiconductor exponential trends and conductivity showed proportional correlation with substitutions levels up to 30 %. The DFT modelling was completed up to 1500 °C, including low and high temperature chromite phases and oxygen vacancies insertion. Calculations were correlated with experimental electrical properties. This work expands the understanding of doped lanthanum chromites and paves the way for the development of materials suitable for demanding high-temperature applications.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Engineering shallow and deep level defects in $\kappa$-Ga 2 O 3 thin films: comparing metal-organic vapour phase epitaxy to molecular beam epitaxy and the effect of annealing treatments

Orthorhombic gallium oxide (κ-Ga 2 O 3 ) is an ultra-wide bandgap semiconductor with great potential in new generation electronics. Its application is hindered at present by the limited physical understanding of the relationship between synthesis and functional properties. This work discusses the effects of growth method (metal-organic vapour phase epitaxy and molecular beam epitaxy) as well as annealing treatments in different atmospheres (O 2 , H 2 ) on point defects in κ-Ga 2 O 3 layers epitaxially grown on c-plane sapphire. Comprehensive experimental characterization by X-ray diffraction, photo current-as well as photoluminescence excitation spectroscopy, and X-ray photo electron spectroscopy is combined with first principles calculations of the point defects’ formation and complex-dissociation energies. We demonstrate that for κ-Ga 2 O 3 the concentration of shallow and deep level defects can be sensitively controlled through annealing treatments at temperatures (T = 500 °C) well below the thermal stability threshold of this polymorph. In particular, our results suggest that hydrogen-related defects (e.g., H-interstitials, Ga-vacancies—H complexes) play a key role in this process. While we provide direct exemplary implications of our results for the performances of κ-Ga 2 O 3 based photodetectors, these findings are predicted to impact further application fields of κ-Ga 2 O 3 , such as high electron mobility transistors or memory devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chemical Passivation of Crystalline Si by Al 2 O 3 Deposited Using Atomic Layer Deposition: Implications for Solar Cells

The atomistic-level mechanism for the chemical passivation of the monocrystalline Si (c-Si) surface with thermally annealed Al 2 O 3 was studied using in situ infrared spectroscopy and photoconductance decay measurements. Al 2 O 3 was deposited on high-lifetime, float-zone c-Si substrates using atomic layer deposition (ALD) from trimethylaluminum (TMA), and H 2 O or O 3 . Surface-sensitive attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy was used to monitor the c-Si/Al 2 O 3 interface, as well as the bulk of the Al 2 O 3 film during the entire process. Our results show that some surface Si–H bonds are preserved after the ALD of Al 2 O 3 on H-terminated Si. During the annealing step at 400 °C, restructuring occurs at the c-Si/Al 2 O 3 interface to form interfacial SiO x . Isotope labeling was used to differentiate interfacial SiD bonds on the c-Si surface from H incorporated in Al 2 O 3 . Within the sensitivity of our infrared setup (~10 13 cm –2 ), we did not observe any net migration of atomic H or D from Al 2 O 3 to the c-Si/Al 2 O 3 interface. To isolate the effects of chemical and field-effect passivation of Al 2 O 3 thin films, we carried out surface passivation studies on c-Si/SiO 2 /Al 2 O 3 stacks. We also annealed these stacks in different atmospheres to test the influence of annealing atmospheres on the chemical passivation of c-Si by Al 2 O 3 and observed that O 2 -containing atmosphere led to the best surface chemical passivation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overestimated Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Eddy‐Rich Regions Simulated by Eddy‐Resolving Global Ocean–Sea Ice Models

Abstract The performance of eddy‐resolving global ocean–sea ice models in simulating mesoscale eddies is evaluated using six eddy‐resolving experiments forced by different atmospheric reanalysis products. Interestingly, eddy‐resolving ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) tend to simulate more (less) energetic eddy‐rich (eddy‐poor) regions with a smaller (larger) spatial extent than satellite observation, which finally shows that larger (smaller) mesoscale energy intensity (EI) is simulated in the eddy‐rich (eddy‐poor) regions. Quantitatively, there is an approximately 27%–60% overestimation of EI in the eddy‐rich regions, which are mainly located in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension, the Gulf Stream, and the Antarctic Circumpolar Currents regions, although the global mean EI is underestimated by 25%–45%. Apparently, the eddy kinetic energy in the eddy‐poor region is underestimated. Further analyses based on coherent mesoscale eddy properties show that the overestimation in the eddy‐rich regions is mainly attributed to mesoscale eddies’ intensity and is more prominent when mesoscale eddies are in their growth stage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A database of global storm surge reconstructions

Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two decades of fumigation data from the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility

Abstract The Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) facility is the longest running open-air carbon dioxide and ozone enrichment facility in the world. For over two decades, soybean, maize, and other crops have been exposed to the elevated carbon dioxide and ozone concentrations anticipated for late this century. The facility, located in East Central Illinois, USA, exposes crops to different atmospheric concentrations in replicated octagonal ~280 m 2 Free Air Concentration Enrichment (FACE) treatment plots. Each FACE plot is paired with an untreated control (ambient) plot. The experiment provides important ground truth data for predicting future crop productivity. Fumigation data from SoyFACE were collected every four seconds throughout each growing season for over two decades. Here, we organize, quality control, and collate 20 years of data to facilitate trend analysis and crop modeling efforts. This paper provides the rationale for and a description of the SoyFACE experiments, along with a summary of the fumigation data and collation process, weather and ambient data collection procedures, and explanations of air pollution metrics and calculations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass spectral molecular mapping shows benefits of thermal evaporation in prelithiated silicon-based electrodes

Silicon based composites have become increasingly popular as potential anodes for lithium-ion batteries due to their large storage capacity and potential ability to generate batteries with energy densities greater than 350 Wh kg −1 . These anodes often see reduced initial columbic efficiency (ICE) due to disruptive volume expansionup to 300% and continuous solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation. Prelithiation, where an excess reservoir of Li is added to the electrode to compensate for irreversible SEI formation losses during their sample preparation, has proven to solve the issue of immediate capacity loss. Thermal evaporation is a prelithiation technique with limited studies on its effectiveness. In this study, time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) is used to highlight the benefits of prelithiation via thermal evaporation. ToF-SIMS provides chemical mapping and spatial information in 2D and 3D visualizing the deposition of lithium, identifying Li x Si y alloy and Li x Si y O z silicate formation, and the distribution of lithium passivation into the electrodes. Passivation under different atmospheric conditions, such as inert Argon (Ar) and Ar/ carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), highlights the impact of the environment on the passivation effectiveness and formation of Li x Si y alloy and Li x Si y O z silicate. The ToF-SIMS molecular imaging and depth profiling results indicate that prelithiation via thermal evaporation effectively distributes lithium throughout the depth profile thickness of several hundred nanometers. It induces a greater degree of Li x Si y O z silicate formation over Li x Si y alloy. Our ToF-SIMS characterization results show the effectiveness of thermal evaporation in producing a more stable electrode and an electrode with an effective lithium reserve that can preserve its capacity.

Parker, Gabriel D. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discrimination between individual dust and bioparticles using aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) impact cloud properties and precipitation processes through their ability to trigger cloud glaciation. Dust and bioparticles are two important sources of INPs that have markedly different atmospheric loadings and ice nucleating efficiencies. In situ identification of the sources of INPs in clouds has been accomplished using single particle mass spectrometry (SPMS). However, external mixtures of dust and bioparticles present a unique challenge as they have overlapping mass spectral ion signatures, complicating their unambiguous identification. This study presents a detailed discussion of dust and bioparticle SPMS signatures, uniting data from a broad array of studies. As emphasized, the ion signals from both dust and bioparticles are highly sensitive to ionization conditions. To understand the observed variations, we characterize the mass spectral dependence of distinct dust and bioparticle samples using total positive ion intensity (TPII) as an indicator of the laser pulse energy each particle encountered. Through this analysis, a broad range of characteristic biogenic low intensity ion peaks that may be useful to distinguish bioparticles from dust became apparent and are highlighted. Insights informed by this analysis were utilized to identify bioparticles in ambient SPMS data. Ambient particles exhibiting both dust and characteristic biogenic spectral fingerprints were excluded from the bioparticle classification. Although bioparticles only made up 0.2% of all sampled particles, their abundance was moderately correlated with INP concentrations measured at 15 °C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗