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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Utah FORGE: 16B(78)-32 RFS DSS Strain Change Rate vs. Depth During 16A(78)-32 Stimulation

This dataset contains strain change rate versus depth data acquired using a Rayleigh frequency shift (RFS) distributed strain sensing (DSS) system during hydraulic stimulation of well 16A(78)-32 at the Utah FORGE site in April 2024. The data were collected from an optical fiber installed in the annulus of production well 16B(78)-32, approximately 300 feet from the injection well. The dataset includes tabulated strain data and an explanation of the methodology used to generate the frac log, which integrates strain change rate signals over selected time windows to identify fracture events.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of chemical ordering on thermodynamic properties of point defects and Xe substitutional in U-10Mo

The accurate knowledge of defect energetics is critical to understanding the aging and irradiation behavior of U-10Mo nuclear fuel, which is selected as the fuel type for conversion of the United States High-Performance Research Reactors (HPRRs). Furthermore, using hybrid molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo (MDMC) simulation, we studied the impact of chemical ordering on the formation energies of vacancies, interstitials, and the solution energy of the Xe substitutionals. Instead of forming a random solid solution (RSS), substantial short-range-order (SRO) develops in U-10Mo, particularly at low temperatures. Mo atoms are found to repel each other and prefer U-rich local atomic environments within the 1st nearest neighbor (1NN) cutoff. Compared to the case of a RSS, the state with equilibrated Mo ordering shifts the distributions of vacancy and interstitial formation energies due to the dependence of defect energies on the local atomic environment, without a clear effect on Xe solution energy. In the operation temperature range (100–250 °C) of U-Mo fuels, neglecting SRO can lead to an inaccurate estimate of thermal equilibrium point defect concentrations by over an order of magnitude and incorrectly predict the preference among different types of dumbbells, highlighting the critical importance of accounting for the impact of chemical ordering for accurate atomistic calculations of defect properties.

Molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo (MDMC)↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of gas purity on observed reactivity with NO using inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry

Interference removal in inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry (ICP-MS/MS) is strongly dependent on the gas selected for use within the collision/reaction cell. There has been little investigation on the effects that reaction gas impurities may have on the resulting spectra. The reactivity of 60 elements was evaluated using nitric oxide (NO 99.5%) with and without a gas purifier to reduce H 2 O impurities to <100 pptV. Experiments were performed using V, Ce, Tl and Th to investigate the effects of purified NO at various flowrates (0.22–1.49 mL min -1 ). Purified NO was shown to significantly mitigate oxy-hydride interferences, improve total ion sensitivity (notable at high gas flows), and shift product distributions advantageously. The reduction in oxy-hydride species results in a product distribution favoring the major expected products, where signals were shown to increase by an order of magnitude. Reduced background and increased signal for the major expected products provides avenues for improving various analytical applications of ICP-MS/MS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial profiling of the interplay between cell type- and vision-dependent transcriptomic programs in the visual cortex

How early sensory experience during “critical periods” of postnatal life affects the organization of the mammalian neocortex at the resolution of neuronal cell types is poorly understood. We previously reported that the functional and molecular profiles of layer 2/3 (L2/3) cell types in the primary visual cortex (V1) are vision-dependent [S. Chenget al.,Cell185, 311–327.e24 (2022)]. Here, we characterize the spatial organization of L2/3 cell types with and without visual experience. Spatial transcriptomic profiling based on 500 genes recapitulates the zonation of L2/3 cell types along the pial–ventricular axis in V1. By applying multitasking theory, we suggest that the spatial zonation of L2/3 cell types is linked to the continuous nature of their gene expression profiles, which can be represented as a 2D manifold bounded by three archetypal cell types. By comparing normally reared and dark reared L2/3 cells, we show that visual deprivation-induced transcriptomic changes comprise two independent gene programs. The first, induced specifically in the visual cortex, includes immediate-early genes and genes associated with metabolic processes. It manifests as a change in cell state that is orthogonal to cell-type-specific gene expression programs. By contrast, the second program impacts L2/3 cell-type identity, regulating a subset of cell-type-specific genes and shifting the distribution of cells within the L2/3 cell-type manifold. Through an integrated analysis of spatial transcriptomics with single-nucleus RNA-seq data, we describe how vision patterns cortical L2/3 cell types during the critical period.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Outlook towards deployable continual learning for particle accelerators

Particle accelerators are high power complex machines. To ensure uninterrupted operation of these machines, thousands of pieces of equipment need to be synchronized, which requires addressing many challenges including design, optimization and control, anomaly detection and machine protection. With recent advancements, machine learning (ML) holds promise to assist in more advance prognostics, optimization, and control. While ML based solutions have been developed for several applications in particle accelerators, only few have reached deployment and even fewer to long term usage, due to particle accelerator data distribution drifts caused by changes in both measurable and non-measurable parameters. In this paper, we identify some of the key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can allow maintenance of ML model performance with distribution drifts. Particularly, we first discuss existing applications of ML in particle accelerators, and their limitations due to distribution drift. Next, we review existing continual learning techniques and investigate their potential applications to address data distribution drifts in accelerators. By identifying the opportunities and challenges in applying continual learning, this paper seeks to open up the new field and inspire more research efforts towards deployable continual learning for particle accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Data-Agnostic, Continuous Machine Learning Framework for Application in High Energy Physics and Beyond: Phase 1 Final Scientific/Technical Report

This Phase 1 effort has focused on the development of continual learning frameworks for use in machine learning, specifically in the applied context of High Energy Physics (HEP). Machine learning (ML) is a transformative technology by which computers, typically through the use of neural networks, are able to perform tasks with proficiency that rivals or surpasses that of human users. Model Degradation & Catastrophic Forgetting are two undesired phenomena which can occur in ML where the performance of a model degrades when either deployed on novel data streams, or trained on novel data which are sufficiently different than the data the models were initially trained on. A natural example where these sorts of effects can be observed is in the performance of detectors in harsh environments, where the detector signature may change over the lifetime of the detector as it ages and deteriorates — precisely what occurs in the experiments conducted in HEP. Real world HEP data is therefore an excellent test-ground and use-case for Continual Learning paradigms, which are techniques used in ML to counteract these problems. Ensemble learning is one such technique, where multiple smaller models are trained on subsets of the overall data and are ensembled together during inference. The intuition behind this technique is that, although there are shifts in the distributions which govern the incoming data streams, these shifts are not expected to be homogeneous or global. If a sufficient diversity in solutions within the various sub-models has been achieved, then at least one sub-model is expected to retain its performance within the overall ensemble. One further strength of this approach is that the architectures of the various models do not need to be identical, and in fact even different modalities of data can naturally be combined in this way. This work focused on applying ensemble learning techniques to derive results using two main datasets, anomaly detection in HEP data & time-series forecasting in semiconductor manufacturing data. Semiconductor manufacturing involves data with surprising similarity to that of HEP (e.g. wafer maps look very similar to digi-occupancy maps) and Cerium Lab’s prominence within the semiconductor industry makes semiconductor manufacturing a natural opportunity for commercialization of this work. Our efforts have led to two strong results. The first is that we evaluated the proposed ensembling techniques using previously proposed machine learning architectures for use in anomaly detection, namely AutoEncoder based models and their derivatives. We also developed new architectures which have not been evaluated in this context before. In fact, this work marks the first use of Vision Transformers for anomaly detection in HEP. Second, we demonstrated that ensemble learning significantly improves model performance in scenarios prone to degradation, validating its effectiveness across both HEP and semiconductor datasets. These results further support ensemble learning as a powerful strategy for mitigating catastrophic forgetting and maintaining robust performance in evolving data environments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring small-angle emissions in charm quark jets in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=5.02$ TeV

A measurement of the angular structure of inclusive jets and those containing a prompt D 0 meson in proton-proton collisions at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV is presented. The data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 301 pb −1 were collected by the CMS experiment in 2017. Two jet grooming algorithms, late-k T and soft drop, are used to study the intrajet radiation pattern using iterative Cambridge-Aachen declustering. The splitting-angle distributions of jets with transverse momentum (p T ) of around 100 GeV, obtained with these two algorithms, show that there is a shift of the distribution for jets containing a prompt D 0 meson with respect to inclusive jets. The suppression of emissions at small angles observed in the late-k T grooming approach is consistent with the dead-cone effect, whereas the similar suppression for splittings selected with the soft-drop algorithm appears to be induced by gluon splitting to charm quark-antiquark pairs at large angles. The measured distributions are corrected to the particle level and can be used to constrain model predictions for the substructure of high-p T charm quark jets.

Charm Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Local Structural Coherence and Interfacial Charge Transfer in Cu 2 ⁢S/Mo⁢S 2 Heterostructure

Precise control over electronic coupling at nanoscale interfaces is critical for designing materials with tunable charge-transfer behavior and catalytic function. Heterostructures with locally coherent interfaces provide a platform for interrogating interfacial charge redistribution in coupled material systems. Here, we report Cu 2 ⁢S/Mo⁢S 2 heterostructures exhibiting nanoscale crystallographic alignment, which are synthesized through a rapid thermal transformation pathway. We employed electrochemical reduction reactions to probe interfacial charge transfer, revealing shifts in product distribution attributable to modified interfacial energetics, even in the absence of optimized catalytic performance. The observed formate Faradaic efficiency suggests that interfacial electronic modulation in the heterostructure shifts product selectivity towards formate, highlighting how interface-driven electronic modulation can direct reaction pathways and influence product selectivity. Optimizing catalyst loading, architecture, and reactor configuration will be critical for future improvement. Structural and compositional integrity were confirmed through powder x-ray diffraction, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. Electron transfer between Cu 2 ⁢S and Mo⁢S 2 domains was further evaluated by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, while selected-area electron diffraction revealed local crystallographic alignment consistent with a local epitaxial relationship at the Cu 2 S/Mo⁢S 2 heterointerface. To illustrate the broader applicability of this approach, a Zn⁢S/Mo⁢S 2 heterostructure was also synthesized using the same microwave strategy, confirming the generalizability of interfacial engineering principles across metal sulfide-Mo⁢S 2 systems. Collectively, these findings demonstrate that controlled local epitaxial alignment serves as an effective design principle for tuning interfacial energetics and catalytic reactivity in complex heterostructure materials.

carbon capture & utilization↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Fast Dynamic Internal Predictive Power Scheduling Approach for Power Management in Microgrids: Preprint

This paper presents a Dynamic Internal Predictive Power Scheduling (DIPPS) approach for optimizing power management in microgrids, particularly focusing on external power exchanges among diverse prosumers. DIPPS utilizes a dynamic objective function with a time-varying binary parameter to control the timing of power transfers to the external grid, facilitated by efficient usage of energy storage for surplus renewable power. The microgrid power scheduling problem is modeled as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP-PS) and subsequently transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILPPS) optimization through McCormick's relaxation to reduce computational complexity. A predictive window window with 6 data points is solved at an average of 0.92s, a 97.6% improvement over the 38.27s required for the MINLP-PS formulation, implying the numerical feasibility of the DIPPS approach for real-time implementation. Finally, the approach is validated against a static objective using real-world load data across three case studies with different time-varying parameters, demonstrating the ability of DIPPS to optimize power exchanges and efficiently utilize distributed resources while shifting the external power transfers to specified time durations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Aerosol Chemical Characterization and Vertical Profiling over the Southern Great Plains Using Uncrewed Aerial Sampling and Offline Aerosol Mass Spectrometry

Recent advancements in uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) and particulate matter (PM) analytical techniques have provided opportunities for atmospheric research. In this study, we deployed the Department of Energy’s fixed-wing ArcticShark UAS to examine PM 2.5 composition at varying altitudes─within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL)─over the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory (SGP). A total of 22 flights were conducted across March, June, and August 2023. Composite filter samples were collected during each flight and analyzed with offline aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS), complemented by on-board real-time sensors and ground-based instrumentation, to provide a comprehensive view of regional aerosol characteristics. Results show clear vertical and seasonal differences in the aerosol composition. Relative to ground-level measurements, aloft samples exhibited shifts in the distribution of organic and inorganic PM, with the organic composition varying distinctly across seasons. Particulate organic nitrogen (ON) was elevated, with bulk compositions similar in March and June but strongly altered in August, likely driven by biomass burning and enhanced photochemical activity. Combined AMS and chemical ionization mass spectrometry analyses detected amines, amides, and amino acids. PM above the planetary boundary layer was enriched in oxidized organic aerosols, while ground-level PM contained higher nitrate and sulfate. Seasonal differences in aqueous-phase processing were also observed, which were strongest in March during persistent cloud cover and weaker in the drier August period, suggesting a shift from aqueous- to gas-phase SOA formation. In conclusion, these findings highlight the value of UAS in advancing PM measurements and vertical profiling of aerosol composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Large Removable Beryllium Reflector Experiments on HFIR Performance and Safety Metrics

This study investigated the effect of various removable beryllium (RB) experiment configurations on High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) metrics to address increasing interest in these facilities for materials and fuels irradiation research. The RB reflector contains eight large and four small irradiation experiment facilities that offer excellent neutron flux conditions to perform fission and fusion reactor materials and fuels irradiation research. This work aims to outline acceptable RB configurations based on safety, performance, and programmatic metrics. This study assessed experiment effects on reactivity, cycle length, fission rate density distributions, and neutron flux distributions using the Shift, HFIRCON, and SCALE ORIGEN codes. Initial evaluations focused on generic experiment materials including aluminum plugs, stainless steel plugs, molybdenum plugs, and aluminum plugs with gadolinium shields. Subsequent analyses of MiniFuel experiments were performed to evaluate a heterogenous experiment, consisting of a more complex geometry and bearing several materials, and to test the correlations developed with the generic materials on a real experiment. Furthermore, the effects of neutron poison concentrations in the standard beryllium plugs were evaluated. When assuming a reference RB configuration with eight large fresh beryllium plugs, perturbed configurations with three aluminum plugs, one stainless steel plug, one molybdenum plug, one gadolinium-shielded aluminum plug, and one MiniFuel experiment resulted in a cycle length reduction of less than 1.3 days, the current threshold before requiring additional approvals. Configurations with five aluminum plugs, one stainless steel plug, one molybdenum plug, one gadolinium-shielded aluminum plug, and two MiniFuel experiments meet the 1.3 day limit if irradiated beryllium plugs are considered. Fuel element fission rate density distributions remained within safety limits, with maximum local increases under 9%. Neutron flux calculations revealed large thermal flux depressions inside and around the perturbed RB facilities, while epithermal and fast neutron fluxes increased because of reduced neutron moderation by the perturbed materials. These findings provide valuable guidance for optimizing RB configurations to balance safety and performance at HFIR.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D'ivoire and Ghana

ABSTRACT Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the world's two largest cocoa‐producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200 mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25 days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6 days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15 days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4 mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa‐growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Côte d'Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Côte d'Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100 mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yield's responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water‐stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water‐stressed regions.

Obahoundje, Salomon [International Water Managemen↗
DOE OSTI2025

The congenital APOA1 K107del mutation disrupts the lipid-free conformation of monomeric APOA1 and impairs oligomerization

Apolipoprotein A-I (APOA1) oligomerization is thought to be essential for high-density lipoprotein (HDL) formation and metabolism. Naturally occurring mutations can disrupt normal APOA1 folding and self-association, leading to dysfunctional HDL formation and cardiovascular disease. The congenital APOA1 variant p.K131del (APOA1 K107del ) has been associated with cardiovascular pathologies such as low HDL-cholesterol levels and aortic amyloidosis, and multiple studies indicate structural changes in APOA1 conformation underlie associated dysfunction. In the current study, we confirmed that APOA1 K107del exhibits no notable defect in lipid-binding. However, using polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) and size-exclusion chromatography (SEC), we found that loss of lysine 107 resulted in a remarkable shift in the distribution of APOA1 oligomers with a much higher proportion of monomers present in APOA1 K107del compared to wild-type APOA1. Further investigation using quantitative cross-linking revealed a major disruption of interactions in helical regions reported to participate in domain swaps necessary for proper self-association. This structural disruption appears to impair N- and C-termini interactions and dynamics that lead to non-specific aggregation. In conclusion, these findings support the hypothesis that lysine 107 is critical for proper folding and self-association of lipid-free APOA1 which could impact HDL biogenesis.

APOA1 (p.K131del)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Community detection robustness of graph neural networks

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly widely used for community detection in attributed networks. They combine structural topology with node attributes through message passing and pooling. However, their robustness or lack thereof with respect to different perturbations and targeted attacks in conjunction with community detection tasks is not well understood. To shed light on latent mechanisms behind GNN sensitivity on community detection tasks, we conduct a systematic computational evaluation of six widely adopted GNN architectures graph convolutional network, graph attention network, graph sample and aggregate (GraphSAGE), differentiable pooling (DiffPool), minimum cut pooling (MinCUT), and deep modularity networks (DMoN). The analysis covers three perturbation categories: node attribute manipulations, edge topology distortions, and adversarial attacks. We use element-centric similarity as the evaluation metric on synthetic benchmarks and real-world citation networks. Our findings indicate that supervised GNNs tend to achieve higher baseline accuracy, while unsupervised methods, particularly DMoN, maintain stronger resilience under targeted and adversarial perturbations. Furthermore, robustness appears to be strongly influenced by community strength, with well-defined communities reducing performance loss. Across all models, node attribute perturbations associated with targeted edge deletions and shifts in attribute distributions tend to cause the largest degradation in community recovery. These findings highlight important trade-offs between accuracy and robustness in GNN-based community detection and offer insights into selecting architectures resilient to noise and adversarial attacks.

Goel, Jaidev [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Heterogeneity of Surface Water Temperature Following Stream Restoration and a High-Intensity Fire from Thermal Imagery

Thermal heterogeneity of rivers is essential to support freshwater biodiversity. Salmon behaviorally thermoregulate by moving from patches of warm water to cold water. When implementing river restoration projects, it is essential to monitor changes in temperature and thermal heterogeneity through time to assess the impacts to a river’s thermal regime. Lightweight sensors that record both thermal infrared (TIR) and multispectral data carried via unoccupied aircraft systems (UASs) present an opportunity to monitor temperature variations at high spatial (<0.5 m) and temporal resolution, facilitating the detection of the small patches of varying temperatures salmon require. Here, we present methods to classify and filter visible wetted area, including a novel procedure to measure canopy cover, and extract and correct radiant surface water temperature to evaluate changes in the variability of stream temperature pre- and post-restoration followed by a high-intensity fire in a section of the river corridor of the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon. We used a simple linear model to correct the TIR data by imaging a water bath where the temperature increased from 9.5 to 33.4 °C. The resulting model reduced the mean absolute error from 1.62 to 0.35 °C. We applied this correction to TIR-measured temperatures of wetted cells classified using NDWI imagery acquired in the field. We found warmer conditions (+2.6 °C) after restoration (p < 0.001) and median absolute deviation for pre-restoration (0.30) to be less than both that of post-restoration (0.85) and post-fire (0.79) orthomosaics. In addition, there was statistically significant evidence to support the hypothesis of shifts in temperature distributions pre- and post-restoration (KS test 2009 vs. 2019, p < 0.001, D = 0.99; KS test 2019 vs. 2021, p < 0.001, D = 0.10). Moreover, we used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that included spatial and environmental predictors (i.e., canopy cover calculated from multispectral NDVI and photogrammetrically derived digital elevation model) to model TIR temperature from a transect along the main river channel. This model explained 89% of the deviance, and the predictor variables showed statistical significance. Collectively, our study underscored the potential of a multispectral/TIR sensor to assess thermal heterogeneity in large and complex river systems.

Barker, Matthew I. (ORCID:0000000252864930)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ventenata dubia projected to expand in the western United States despite future novel conditions

Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2026

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗