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Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

Disturbances in North American Boreal Forest and Arctic Tundra: Impacts, Interactions, and Responses

Ecosystems in the North American Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) experience a diverse set of disturbances associated with wildfire, permafrost dynamics, geomorphic processes, insect outbreaks and pathogens, extreme weather events, and human activity. Climate warming in the ABZ is occurring at over twice the rate of the global average, and as a result the extent, frequency, and severity of these disturbances are increasing rapidly. Disturbances in the ABZ span a wide gradient of spatiotemporal scales and have varying impacts on ecosystem properties and function. However, many ABZ disturbances are relatively understudied and have different sensitivities to climate and trajectories of recovery, resulting in considerable uncertainty in the impacts of climate warming and human land use on ABZ vegetation dynamics and in the interactions between disturbance types. Here we review the current knowledge of ABZ disturbances and their precursors, ecosystem impacts, temporal frequencies, spatial extents, and severity. We also summarize current knowledge of interactions and feedbacks among ABZ disturbances and characterize typical trajectories of vegetation loss and recovery in response to ecosystem disturbance using satellite time-series. We conclude with a summary of critical data and knowledge gaps and identify priorities for future study.

high-latitude↗

Minimizing spacecraft attitude disturbances in space manipulator systems

This paper presents a technique called the enhanced disturbance map to plan space manipulator motions that will result in relatively low spacecraft disturbances. This subject is of significant concern because future robotic systems used in space may encounter problems due to the dynamic disturbances imposed on their spacecraft by their manipulator motions. Although a spacecraft's attitude control reaction jets can compensate for these dynamic disturbances, jet fuel is a limited resource and excessive disturbances would limit the life of a system. The enhanced disturbance map can aid in understanding this complex problem and in the development of algorithms to reduce disturbances, including ones that use manipulator redundancy to eliminate the disturbances.

Torres, Miguel A.↗

Solar-generated disturbances in the heliosphere

It has long been known that disturbances can propagate from Sun to Earth with periods of a few days following large solar flares. Other disturbances re-occur with the solar rotation rate implying that they are more or less stably generated by a specific region on the solar surface. At the Sun some of these disturbances are readily observed in coronagraphs and against the solar disk. Several techniques have been used to remotely detect and follow different disturbances in the interplanetary medium as they propagate outward from the Sun. These techniques include interplanetary scintillation, kilometric radio and Helios photometer observations. In situ, spacecraft can mark the passage of disturbances by direct measurement along the column convected past the observation point. As probes of the heliospheric magnetic field and disturbances in themselves, particles above the energy of the thermal plasma traverse the heliosphere and indicate the extent of its structures. Both the basic physics, as well as the spatial and temporal evolution of disturbances, can be confused as they propagate through the interplanetary medium largely because of the data coverage limitations. However, as their basic physics becomes better known through more complete observations and theory, the extent and accuracy of these disturbances can be better described.

Jackson, B. V.↗

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite attitude disturbances during shadow entry and exit

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), as with the Landsat-4 and Landsat-5 spacecraft, experiences large attitude disturbances when entering and exiting the Earth's shadow. Previous investigations have provided some evidence linking these disturbances to rapid bending of the solar array but have also raised questions. For example, the magnitudes of the roll attitude disturbances have shown an unmolested asymmetry, and the timing of the disturbances at sunrise appears to disagree with the modeled timing. A better understanding of this phenomenon is important in assessing the implications for UARS science gathering and for future mission design analysis. To this end, UARS attitude, sensor, and actuator data are used to evaluate the disturbances as they vary with solar beta angle and solar array drive angle. The attitude data are examined during specific periods of interest, such as the month in which the solar array was parked in its high-noon position, and are also tracked from the beginning of the mission to determine any trends that may result from changing mass properties due to cryogen boiloff and propellant usage. Attitude rate and torque profiles are derived from inertial reference until data and related to the disturbances seen in the attitude data. The timing of the disturbances with respect to spacecraft sunset and sunrise is characterized to allow event predictions. Stability during the disturbances is discussed in terms of science instrument requirements. Finally, the results are compared with the behavior predicted by models that are based on solar array bending.

Lambertson, M.↗

Thermally-Induced Structural Disturbances of Rigid Panel Solar Arrays

The performance of a significant number of spacecraft has been impacted negatively by attitude disturbances resulting from thermally-induced motions of flexible structures. Recent examples of spacecraft affected by these disturbances include the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). Thermally-induced structural disturbances occur as the result of rapid changes in thermal loading typically initiated as a satellite exits or enters the Earth's shadow. Temperature differences in flexible appendages give rise to structural deformations, which in turn result in disturbance torques reacting back on the spacecraft. Structures which have proven susceptible to these disturbances include deployable booms and solar arrays. This paper investigates disturbances resulting from thermally-induced deformations of rigid panel solar arrays. An analytical model for the thermal-structural response of the solar array and the corresponding disturbance torque are presented. The effect of these disturbances on the attitude dynamics of a simple spacecraft is then investigated using a coupled system of governing equations which includes the effects of thermally-induced deformations. Numerical results demonstrate the effect of varying solar array geometry on the dynamic response of the system.

Johnston, John D.↗

Reaction Wheel Disturbance Model Extraction Software - RWDMES

The RWDMES is a tool for modeling the disturbances imparted on spacecraft by spinning reaction wheels. Reaction wheels are usually the largest disturbance source on a precision pointing spacecraft, and can be the dominating source of pointing error. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance environment is critical to accurate prediction of the pointing performance. In the past, it has been difficult to extract an accurate wheel disturbance model since the forcing mechanisms are difficult to model physically, and the forcing amplitudes are filtered by the dynamics of the reaction wheel. RWDMES captures the wheel-induced disturbances using a hybrid physical/empirical model that is extracted directly from measured forcing data. The empirical models capture the tonal forces that occur at harmonics of the spin rate, and the broadband forces that arise from random effects. The empirical forcing functions are filtered by a physical model of the wheel structure that includes spin-rate-dependent moments (gyroscopic terms). The resulting hybrid model creates a highly accurate prediction of wheel-induced forces. It accounts for variation in disturbance frequency, as well as the shifts in structural amplification by the whirl modes, as the spin rate changes. This software provides a point-and-click environment for producing accurate models with minimal user effort. Where conventional approaches may take weeks to produce a model of variable quality, RWDMES can create a demonstrably high accuracy model in two hours. The software consists of a graphical user interface (GUI) that enables the user to specify all analysis parameters, to evaluate analysis results and to iteratively refine the model. Underlying algorithms automatically extract disturbance harmonics, initialize and tune harmonic models, and initialize and tune broadband noise models. The component steps are described in the RWDMES user s guide and include: converting time domain data to waterfall PSDs (power spectral densities); converting PSDs to order analysis data; extracting harmonics; initializing and simultaneously tuning a harmonic model and a wheel structural model; initializing and tuning a broadband model; and verifying the harmonic/broadband/structural model against the measurement data. Functional operation is through a MATLAB GUI that loads test data, performs the various analyses, plots evaluation data for assessment and refinement of analysis parameters, and exports the data to documentation or downstream analysis code. The harmonic models are defined as specified functions of frequency, typically speed-squared. The reaction wheel structural model is realized as mass, damping, and stiffness matrices (typically from a finite element analysis package) with the addition of a gyroscopic forcing matrix. The broadband noise model is realized as a set of speed-dependent filters. The tuning of the combined model is performed using nonlinear least squares techniques. RWDMES is implemented as a MATLAB toolbox comprising the Fit Manager for performing the model extraction, Data Manager for managing input data and output models, the Gyro Manager for modifying wheel structural models, and the Harmonic Editor for evaluating and tuning harmonic models. This software was validated using data from Goodrich E wheels, and from GSFC Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) wheels. The validation testing proved that RWDMES has the capability to extract accurate disturbance models from flight reaction wheels with minimal user effort.

Blaurock, Carl↗

Mapping Forest Disturbance Intensity in North and South Carolina Using Annual Landsat Observations and Field Inventory Data

Disturbance and regrowth are vital processes in determining the roles of forest ecosystem in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles. Using time series observations, the vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm was designed to map the location, timing, and spectral magnitudes of forest disturbance events. While these spectral disturbance magnitudes are indicative of physical changes in tree cover or biomass, their quantitative relationships have yet to be established. This study focuses on estimating disturbance intensity as measured by percent basal area removal using spectral indices from the VCT algorithm over North and South Carolina. Repeat measurements on Forest Service Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) ground plots, which provide changes in basal area between multiple dates at precise locations, are used for training and validation of the model. The overall R2 between predicted disturbance intensity and reference data is 0.66, and cross-validation prediction uncertainty is 14% in North Carolina. Possible causes of this uncertainty could be site heterogeneity and the temporal offset between ground measurements and satellite observations. Results show the area of stand clearing disturbances remains relatively stable around 1143 km2 yr−1 in North and South Carolina throughout the period of observations (1985–2015). The average amount of forest area affected by partial disturbance is much higher at 3287 km2 yr−1. The area of partial disturbances has strong inter-annual variability with a high value of 6000 km2 in 2007 and a low value of 1919 km2 in 2013.

Xin Tao↗

Gravitational spurs and resonances - Effects of small mass disturbers in spiral galaxy disks

In the present simulations of a disturber in a complete stellar disk without the restrictive assumption, the disturber parameters of the NGC 206 cloud in M 31 were assumed as a realistic example. The resulting spur around the disturber was comparable in shape, size, and strength to Julian and Toomre's (1966) results. In addition, a complicated evolving pattern of strong density peaks appeared well inside and outside the disturber's orbit. Simulation with a ten-times-more-massive disturber showed a more clearly defined version of the same initial pattern, two spiral arms of density peaks rotating with the disturber in the stronger arm. The orbital radii of the density peaks correspond to those of epicyclic resonances with the orbiting disturber potential.

Byrd, G. G.↗

Supersonic jet control via point disturbances inside the nozzle

Experiments on supersonic jet control via point disturbances inside the nozzle were conducted using a pressure-matched converging-diverging nozzle with an exit diameter of 3.11 cm and an exit Mach number of 2.1. The disturbance generators are situated on the supersonic nozzle wall between the throat and the jet exit plane; the resulting fluid-mechanical disturbances are observed at the intersection of the disturbance cone and the jet lip. It is demonstrated that a single disturbance generator leads to a polygonal jet appearance, while two symmetric disturbances lead to a symmetric rectangular jet shape and two nonsymmetric disturbances lead to a star-like appearance. Significant cusps are formed in all cases.

Wishart, D. P.↗

Numerical simulation of upstream disturbance on flows around a slender body

Numerical solutions of the thin-layer approximation of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations have been obtained for flows around an ogive-cylinder body with and without a small fixed disturbance placed upstream of the body tip. Locating the disturbance at positions in the flow field upstream of the tip provokes the same range of behavior of the asymmetric flow that was numerically produced earlier by use of a geometrical disturbance on the body tip. Results remain consistent with the presence of a convective instability mechanism, and demonstrate the potential for a precise mapping of the body's receptivity to fixed disturbances in the flow field. Numerical solutions were also obtained for the flow-field responses to impulsive upstream disturbances to determine whether there is a growing response to an asymmetric impulsive disturbance that is consistent with presence of a convective instability mechanism. Results for surface pressure are interpreted with the aid of a mathematical model. The model suggests that the observed growth of surface pressure gradient with time and distance along a ray in response to an asymmetnc impulsive disturbance is in accord with the solution of a Ginzberg-Landau equation, with distinguishing features of the solution being consistent with the convective instability mode of behavior.

Degani, David↗

Response of High Subsonic Jet to Nonaxisymmetric Disturbances

A model of sound generated in a high subsonic (Mach 0.9) circular jet is solved numerically in cylindrical coordinates for nonaxisymmetric disturbances. The jet is excited by transient mass injection by a finite duration pulse via a modulated ring source. The nonaxisymmetric solution is computed for long times after the initial disturbance has exited the computational domain. The long time behavior of the jet is dominated by vorticity and pressure disturbances generated at the nozzle lip and growing as they convect down-stream in the jet. These disturbances generate sound as they propagate. The primary non-axisymmetric effect that we simulate is that of a flapping mode where regions of high and low pressure alternate on opposite sides of the jet. The predominant feature of this mode is the appearance of relatively large deviations of the pressure from the ambient pressure on opposite sides of the jet and the convection of these regions downstream. We illustrate flow field, near field and far field data. Important nonaxisymmetric characteristics of the near and flow field disturbances include roughly periodic pressure elevations and depressions at opposite values of the azimuthal angle psi. These correspond to pressure disturbances propagating in the axial direction. The azimuthal velocity exhibits a sinusoidal dependence on psi with similar roughly periodic disturbances. For every azimuthal angle psi, the jet radiation peaks about 30 deg. from the jet axis, however there is now a pronounced dependence of the far field radiation pattern on psi.

Bayliss, A.↗

The monitoring system for vibratory disturbance detection in microgravity environment aboard the international space station

Scientists in the Office of Life and Microgravity Sciences and Applications within the Microgravity Research Division oversee studies in important physical, chemical, and biological processes in microgravity environment. Research is conducted in microgravity environment because of the beneficial results that come about for experiments. When research is done in normal gravity, scientists are limited to results that are affected by the gravity of Earth. Microgravity provides an environment where solid, liquid, and gas can be observed in a natural state of free fall and where many different variables are eliminated. One challenge that NASA faces is that space flight opportunities need to be used effectively and efficiently in order to ensure that some of the most scientifically promising research is conducted. Different vibratory sources are continually active aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Some of the vibratory sources include crew exercise, experiment setup, machinery startup (life support fans, pumps, freezer/compressor, centrifuge), thruster firings, and some unknown events. The Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMs), which acts as the hardware and carefully positioned aboard the ISS, along with the Microgravity Environment Monitoring System MEMS), which acts as the software and is located here at NASA Glenn, are used to detect these vibratory sources aboard the ISS and recognize them as disturbances. The various vibratory disturbances can sometimes be harmful to the scientists different research projects. Some vibratory disturbances are recognized by the MEMS's database and some are not. Mainly, the unknown events that occur aboard the International Space Station are the ones of major concern. To better aid in the research experiments, the unknown events are identified and verified as unknown events. Features, such as frequency, acceleration level, time and date of recognition of the new patterns are stored in an Excel database. My task is to carefully synthesize frequency and acceleration patterns of unknown events within the Excel database into a new file to determine whether or not certain information that is received i s considered a real vibratory source. Once considered as a vibratory source, further analysis is carried out. The resulting information is used to retrain the MEMS to recognize them as known patterns. These different vibratory disturbances are being constantly monitored to observe if, in any way, the disturbances have an effect on the microgravity environment that research experiments are exposed to. If the disturbance has little or no effect on the experiments, then research is continued. However, if the disturbance is harmful to the experiment, scientists act accordingly by either minimizing the source or terminating the research and neither NASA's time nor money is wasted.

Laster, Rachel M.↗

Assessing North American Forest Disturbance from the Landsat Archive

Forest disturbances are thought to play a major role in controlling land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon. Under the auspices of the North American Carbon Program, the LEDAPS (Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System) and NACP-FIA projects have been analyzing the Landsat satellite record to assess rates of forest disturbance across North America. In the LEDAPS project, wall-to-wall Landsat imagery for the period 1975-2000 has been converted to surface reflectance and analyzed for decadal losses (disturbance) or gains (regrowth) in biomass using a spectral "disturbance index". The NACP-FIA project relies on a geographic sample of dense Landsat image time series, allowing both disturbance rates and recovery trends to be characterized. Preliminary results for the 1990's indicate high rates of harvest within the southeastern US, Eastern Canada, and the Pacific Northwest, with spatially averaged (approx.50x50 km) turnover periods as low as 25-40 years. Lower rates of disturbance are found in the Rockies and Northeastern US.

Masek, Jeffrey G.↗

Monitoring Anthropogenic Disturbance Trends in an Industrialized Boreal Forest with Landsat Time Series

Human transformation of the terrestrial biosphere via resource utilization is a critical impetus for monitoring and characterizing anthropogenic change to vegetation condition. The primary objective of this research was to detect anthropogenic forest disturbance for a recent Landsat time series. A novel combination of an autonomous change detection procedure and spectral classification scheme was applied and tested in a landscape that has undergone significant resource development over the last 30 years. Anthropogenic disturbance was detected with greater than 93% accuracy. Most disturbances were correctly classified as within +/-1 year. The signal of anthropogenic disturbance was significant in the landscape, accounting for more than 91% of all disturbances and 86% of total disturbed area during the 23-year study period. The study demonstrated a robust approach for examining historical disturbance trends related to human-modification of the environment

industrialized↗

Discovery of Ubiquitous Fast Propagating Intensity Disturbances by the Chromospheric Lyman Alpha Spectropolarimeter (CLASP)

High cadence observations by the slit-jaw (SJ) optics system of the sounding rocket experiment known as the Chromospheric Lyman Alpha SpectroPolarimeter (CLASP) reveal ubiquitous intensity disturbances that recurrently propagate in one or both of the chromosphere or transition region at a speed much higher than the sound speed. The CLASP/SJ instrument provides a time series of 2D images taken with broadband filters centered on the Ly(alpha) line at a 0.6 s cadence. The fast propagating intensity disturbances are detected in the quiet Sun and in an active region, and at least 20 events are clearly detected in the field of view of 527′′ x 527′′ during the 5-minute observing time. The apparent speeds of the intensity disturbances range from 150 to 350 km/s, and they are comparable to the local Alfven speed in the transition region. The intensity disturbances tend to propagate along bright elongated structures away from areas with strong photospheric magnetic fields. This suggests that the observed propagating intensity disturbances are related to the magnetic canopy structures. The maximum distance traveled by the intensity disturbances is of about 10′′, and the widths are a few arcseconds, which is almost determined by the pixel size of 1.′′03. The timescale of each intensity pulse is shorter than 30 s. One possible explanation of the fast propagating intensity disturbances observed by CLASP is magneto-hydrodynamic fast mode waves.

CLASP↗

2018 NISAR Applications Workshop: Forest and Disturbance; Workshop Report

Forest lands cover the globe and are important sources for providing ecosystem services including: carbon sequestration, biodiversity, timber, air and water quality. As such, counties around the world have dedicated programs for managing them. Accurate and timely information concerning the status of these forests (moisture, biomass, disturbance type, etc.) is essential to those Nations’ human and ecological health as well as economy. The joint NASA/US Forest Service workshop focused on arming forest land managers with observations and remote sensing information from the upcoming NASA-ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) (NISAR) satellite mission (expected to launch early 2022). Participants included representatives from different US Federal Agencies, private sector, and non-governmental organizations (NGO) that are key players in facilitating integration of Earth Observations (EO) into forest management and decision support workflows. They included scientists, technicians, and program managers with a responsibility for data acquisition and exploitation such as product development, delivery, and use, and capacity building. Discussions were held over two days to convey the broader forest and disturbance community information needs for various representative participants and programs and to facilitate the delivery of NISAR mission geospatial products and observational capabilities. Case studies were presented to demonstrate the current state of practice in the use of SAR remote sensing for applications of direct importance to forest and disturbance land management community. Eleven organizations presented their information requirements in response to a set of questions provided by the NASA team, then the NASA team responded by describing the degree to which NISAR could meet these requirements. Discussion ensued about needed data product specifications to increase utility (e.g., projection, latency, etc.), tools and capacity building. The general findings of this workshop were that (a) NISAR observations will be particularly useful to the global forest carbon and disturbance monitoring applications, but that certain data product design decisions (projections and radiometric and terrain corrections) need to be considered to increase utility; b) the biomass and disturbance detection algorithms meet many of the community needs, however there are other information products of value (e.g., soil moisture or disturbance classification, not just detection) and all products should be compliant with existing community standards for reporting uncertainty; c) providing SAR education to the community will be key specifically thinking about putting the information first and the SAR theory second, providing a simple guide of standard data processing steps (e.g., dB (decibel) to power conversion and speckle filtering); d) the community needs a user-friendly interface for finding free, archived data over their geographic regions of interest; e) user-friendly tools that connect to open-sources GIS (Global Information System) software (e.g., QGIS (Quantum GIS)) that include a graphical user interface (GUI) for SAR processing that enables both download and cloud processing. To integrate these findings and prepare the community before NISAR launches, it was suggested that there be a dedicated NISAR Forest and Disturbance Applications Working Group (as per the specifications in the NISAR Utilization Plan). After launch, it was decided that the community continue capacity building activities.

Stavros, Natasha↗

State Estimation of International Space Station Centrifuge Rotor With Incomplete Knowledge of Disturbance Inputs

This thesis develops a state estimation algorithm for the Centrifuge Rotor (CR) system where only relative measurements are available with limited knowledge of both rotor imbalance disturbances and International Space Station (ISS) thruster disturbances. A Kalman filter is applied to a plant model augmented with sinusoidal disturbance states used to model both the effect of the rotor imbalance and the 155 thrusters on the CR relative motion measurement. The sinusoidal disturbance states compensate for the lack of the availability of plant inputs for use in the Kalman filter. Testing confirms that complete disturbance modeling is necessary to ensure reliable estimation. Further testing goes on to show that increased estimator operational bandwidth can be achieved through the expansion of the disturbance model within the filter dynamics. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis shows the varying levels of robustness against defined plant/filter uncertainty variations.

SINUSOIDAL DISTURBANCE STATES↗