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At least 37 records · Page 2

Rapid changes in coastal ocean microbiomes uncoupled with shifts in environmental variables

Disturbances, here defined as events that directly alter microbial community composition, are commonly studied in host–associated and engineered systems. Notably, in spite of global change both altering environmental averages and increasing extreme events, there has been relatively little research into the causes, persistence and population–level impacts of disturbance in the dynamic coastal ocean. Here, we utilize 3 years of observations from a coastal time series to identify disturbances based on the largest week–over–week changes in the microbiome (i.e. identifying disturbance as events that alter the community composition). In general, these microbiome disturbances were not clearly linked to specific environmental factors and responsive taxa largely differed, aside from SAR11, which generally declined. However, several disturbance metagenomes identified increased phage–associated genes, suggesting that unexplained community shifts might be caused by increased mortality. Furthermore, a category 1 hurricane, the only event that would likely be classified a priori as an environmental disturbance, was not an outlier in microbiome composition, but did enhance a bloom in seasonally abundant phytoplankton. Thus, as extreme environmental changes intensify, assumptions of what constitutes a disturbance should be re–examined in the context of ecological history and microbiome responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Label-Free In Situ Chemical Characterization of Amyloid Plaques in Human Brain Tissues

The accumulation of amyloid plaques and increased brain redox burdens are neuropathological hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease. Altered metabolism of essential biometals is another feature of Alzheimer’s, with amyloid plaques representing sites of disturbed metal homeostasis. Despite these observations, metal-targeting disease treatments have not been therapeutically effective to date. A better understanding of amyloid plaque composition and the role of the metals associated with them is critical. To establish this knowledge, the ability to resolve chemical variations at nanometer length scales relevant to biology is essential. Here, we present a methodology for the label-free, nanoscale chemical characterization of amyloid plaques within human Alzheimer’s disease tissue using synchrotron X-ray spectromicroscopy. Our approach exploits a C–H carbon absorption feature, consistent with the presence of lipids, to visualize amyloid plaques selectively against the tissue background, allowing chemical analysis to be performed without the addition of amyloid dyes that alter the native sample chemistry. Using this approach, we show that amyloid plaques contain elevated levels of calcium, carbonates, and iron compared to the surrounding brain tissue. Chemical analysis of iron within plaques revealed the presence of chemically reduced, low-oxidation-state phases, including ferromagnetic metallic iron. The zero-oxidation state of ferromagnetic iron determines its high chemical reactivity and so may contribute to the redox burden in the Alzheimer’s brain and thus drive neurodegeneration. Ferromagnetic metallic iron has no established physiological function in the brain and may represent a target for therapies designed to lower redox burdens in Alzheimer’s disease. Additionally, ferromagnetic metallic iron has magnetic properties that are distinct from the iron oxide forms predominant in tissue, which might be exploitable for the in vivo detection of amyloid pathologies using magnetically sensitive imaging. We anticipate that this label-free X-ray imaging approach will provide further insights into the chemical composition of amyloid plaques, facilitating better understanding of how plaques influence the course of Alzheimer’s disease.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Observational Capabilities to Capture Water Cycle Event Dynamics and Impacts in the Age of AI

This whitepaper is responsive to focal area (1) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning (ML), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and advanced methods. Here we describe how Earth observations specific to water cycle disturbances can be collected in parallel with and integrated into future model development, and make use of the latest technologies other than AI/ ML such as 5G/satellite, edge computing, big data technologies, and cloud computing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Resolved Molecular Gas Observations of MaNGA Post-starbursts Reveal a Tumultuous Past

Post-starburst (PSB) galaxies have recently and rapidly quenched their star formation; thus, they are an important way to understand how galaxies transition from star-forming late types to quiescent early types. The recent discovery of large cold gas reservoirs in PSB galaxies calls into question the theory that galaxies must lose their gas to become quiescent. Optical Integral Field Spectroscopy (IFS) surveys have revealed two classes of PSB galaxies: central PSB (cPSB) galaxies with central quenching regions and ring PSB (rPSB) galaxies with quenching in their outskirts. We analyze a sample of 13 nearby (z < 0.1) PSB galaxies with spatially resolved optical IFS data from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey and matched resolution Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array observations of 12 CO(1–0). Disturbed stellar kinematics in 7/13 of our PSB galaxies and centrally concentrated molecular gas is consistent with a recent merger for most of our sample. In galaxies without merger evidence, alternate processes may funnel gas inward and suppress star formation, which may include outflows, stellar bars, and minor mergers or interactions. The star formation efficiencies of the PSB regions in nearly half our galaxies are suppressed while the gas fractions are consistent with star-forming galaxies. Active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback may drive this stabilization, and we observe AGN-consistent emission in the centers of 5/13 galaxies. Finally, our cPSB and rPSB galaxies have similar properties except the ionized and molecular gas in cPSB galaxies is more disturbed. Overall, the molecular gas in our PSB galaxies tends to be compact and highly disturbed, resulting in concentrated gas reservoirs unable to form stars efficiently.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Higher‐Order Gravity Waves and Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances From the Polar Vortex Jet on 11–15 January 2016: Modeling With HIAMCM‐SAMI3 and Comparison With Observations in the Thermosphere and Ionosphere

Abstract In Vadas et al. (2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ja032521 ), we modeled the atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) during 11–14 January 2016 using the HIAMCM, and found that the polar vortex jet generates medium to large‐scale, higher‐order GWs in the thermosphere. In this paper, we model the traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) generated by these GWs using the HIAMCM‐SAMI3 and compare with ionospheric observations from ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISR) and the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN). We find that medium to large‐scale TIDs are generated worldwide by the higher‐order GWs from this event. Many of the TIDs over Europe and Asia have concentric ring/arc‐like structure, and most of those over North/South America have planar wave structure and occur during the daytime. Those over North/South America propagate southward and are generated by higher‐order GWs from Europe/Asia which propagate over the Arctic. These latter TIDs can be misidentified as arising from geomagnetic forcing. We find that the higher‐order GWs that propagate to Africa and Brazil from Europe may aid in the formation of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) there. We find that the simulated GWs, TIDs and EPBs agree with EISCAT, PFISR, GNSS, and SuperDARN measurements. We find that the higher‐order GWs are concentrated at N at 200 km, in agreement with GOCE and CHAMP data. Thus the polar vortex jet is important for generating TIDs in the northern winter ionosphere via multi‐step vertical coupling through GWs.

Vadas, Sharon L. [Northwest Research Associates Bo↗

Aboveground Wood Production Is Sustained in the First Growing Season after Phloem-Disrupting Disturbance

Carbon (C) cycling processes are particularly dynamic following disturbance, with initial responses often indicative of longer-term change. In northern Michigan, USA, we initiated the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) to identify the processes that sustain or lead to the decline of C cycling rates across multiple levels (0, 45, 65 and 85% targeted gross leaf area index loss) of disturbance severity and, in response, to separate disturbance types preferentially targeting large or small diameter trees. Simulating the effects of boring insects, we stem girdled > 3600 trees below diameter at breast height (DBH), immediately and permanently disrupting the phloem. Weekly DBH measurements of girdled and otherwise healthy trees (n > 700) revealed small but significant increases in daily aboveground wood net primary production (ANPP w ) in the 65 and 85% disturbance severity treatments that emerged six weeks after girdling. However, we observed minimal change in end-of-season leaf area index and no significant differences in annual ANPP w among disturbance severities or between disturbance types, suggesting continued C fixation by girdled trees sustained stand-scale wood production in the first growing season after disturbance. We hypothesized higher disturbance severities would favor the growth of early successional species but observed no significant difference between early and middle to late successional species’ contributions to ANPP w across the disturbance severity gradient. We conclude that ANPP w stability immediately following phloem disruption is dependent on the continued, but inevitably temporary, growth of phloem-disrupted trees. Our findings provide insight into the tree-to-ecosystem mechanisms supporting stand-scale wood production stability in the first growing season following a phloem-disrupting disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Landsat near-infrared (NIR) band and ELM-FATES sensitivity to forest disturbances and regrowth in the Central Amazon

Forest disturbance and regrowth are key processes in forest dynamics, but detailed information on these processes is difficult to obtain in remote forests such as the Amazon. We used chronosequences of Landsat satellite imagery (Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) to determine the sensitivity of surface reflectance from all spectral bands to windthrow, clear-cut, and clear-cut and burned (cut + burn) and their successional pathways of forest regrowth in the Central Amazon. We also assessed whether the forest demography model Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM), ELM-FATES, accurately represents the changes for windthrow and clear-cut. The results show that all spectral bands from the Landsat satellites were sensitive to the disturbances but after 3 to 6 years only the near-infrared (NIR) band had significant changes associated with the successional pathways of forest regrowth for all the disturbances considered. In general, the NIR values decreased immediately after disturbance, increased to maximum values with the establishment of pioneers and early successional tree species, and then decreased slowly and almost linearly to pre-disturbance conditions with the dynamics of forest succession. Statistical methods predict that NIR values will return to pre-disturbance values in about 39, 36, and 56 years for windthrow, clear-cut, and cut + burn disturbances, respectively. The NIR band captured the observed, and different, successional pathways of forest regrowth after windthrow, clear-cut, and cut + burn. Consistent with inferences from the NIR observations, ELM-FATES predicted higher peaks of biomass and stem density after clear-cuts than after windthrows. ELM-FATES also predicted recovery of forest structure and canopy coverage back to pre-disturbance conditions in 38 years after windthrows and 41 years after clear-cut. The similarity of ELM-FATES predictions of regrowth patterns after windthrow and clear-cut to those of the NIR results suggests the NIR band can be used to benchmark forest regrowth in ecosystem models. Our results show the potential of Landsat imagery data for mapping forest regrowth from different types of disturbances, benchmarking, and the improvement of forest regrowth models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.

Hartman, Christopher M.↗

Are All Post-starbursts Mergers? HST Reveals Hidden Disturbances in the Majority of PSBs

How do galaxies transform from blue, star-forming spirals to red, quiescent early-type galaxies? To answer this question, we analyzed a set of 26 gas-rich, shocked post-starburst galaxies with Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging in $B$, $I$, and $H$ bands and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) $i$-band imaging of similar depth but lower resolution. We found that post-starbursts in our sample have intermediate morphologies between disk- and bulge dominated (Sérsic $n$ = ${1.7}_{-0.0}^{+0.3}$ ) and have red bulges, likely due to dust obscuration in the cores. A majority of galaxies in our sample are more morphologically disturbed than regular galaxies (88%, corresponding to >3$σ$ significance) when observed with HST, with asymmetry and Sérsic residual flux fraction being the most successful measures of disturbance. Most disturbances are undetected at the lower resolution of SDSS imaging. Although ~27% galaxies are clear merger remnants, we found that disturbances in another ~30% of the sample are internal, caused by small-scale perturbations or dust substructures rather than tidal features, and require high-resolution imaging to detect. We found 2.8$σ$ evidence that asymmetry features fade on timescales ~200 Myr, and may vanish entirely after ~750 Myr, so we do not rule out a possible merger origin of all post-starbursts given that asymmetric features may have already faded. This work highlights the importance of small-scale disturbances, detected only in high-resolution imaging, in understanding structural evolution of transitioning galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observer-Based Nonlinear Control Scheme to Reduce Oscillations and Zero Crossing in Skid-Steer Vehicles

Motion sickness is a common condition experienced by drivers of skid-steer vehicles, primarily caused by zero crossing and oscillations in undamped systems. This study proposes an observer-based nonlinear control scheme to reduce transient oscillations and zero-crossing phenomena in skid-steer vehicles, thereby potentially alleviating motion sickness. Reducing transient oscillations and zero crossing in the transient response may alleviate motion sickness. A nonlinear damping controller is designed to improve transient response by reducing oscillations and zero-crossing. To design the controller, a reduced-order kinematic model based on coordinate transformation is developed. This transformation not only converts the system modeling into a controllable form but also enhances control performance. Modeling error is addressed by considering the distance between the center of the vehicle and the sensor location. Despite these improvements, model uncertainties and external disturbances remain, which may degrade control performance. To ensure robustness and estimate such disturbances, a high-order sliding mode observer (HOSMO) is incorporated. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through MATLAB/Simulink and TruckMaker simulations. From the simulation results, it was shown that the proposed method reduced the mean squared error of the tracking error to within 10 % compared to the state feedback controller with the HOSMO.

Seo, Jiwon [Chung-Ang University, Seoul (Korea, Re↗

Understory plant communities show resistance to drought, hurricanes, and experimental warming in a wet tropical forest

Global climate change has led to rising temperatures and to more frequent and intense climatic events, such as storms and droughts. Changes in climate and disturbance regimes can have non-additive effects on plant communities and result in complicated legacies we have yet to understand. This is especially true for tropical forests, which play a significant role in regulating global climate. We used understory vegetation data from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Puerto Rico to evaluate how plant communities responded to climate warming and disturbance. The TRACE understory vegetation was exposed to a severe drought (2015), 2 years of experimental warming (4°C above ambient in half of the plots, 2016–2017 and 2018–2019), and two major hurricanes (Irma and María, September 2017). Woody seedlings and saplings were censused yearly from 2015 to 2019, with an additional census in 2015 after the drought ended. We evaluated disturbance-driven changes in species richness, diversity, and composition across ontogeny. We then used Bayesian predictive trait modeling to assess how species responded to disturbance and how this might influence the functional structure of the plant community. Our results show decreased seedling richness after hurricane disturbance, as well as increased sapling richness and diversity after warming. We found a shift in species composition through time for both seedlings and saplings, yet the individual effects of each disturbance were not significant. At both ontogenetic stages, we observed about twice as many species responding to experimental warming as those responding to drought and hurricanes. Predicted changes in functional structure point to disturbance-driven functional shifts toward a mixture of fast-growing and drought-tolerant species. Our findings demonstrate that the tropical forest understory community is more resistant to climatic stressors than expected, especially at the sapling stage. However, early signs of changes in species composition suggest that, in a warming climate with frequent droughts and hurricanes, plant communities might shift over time toward fast-growing or drought-tolerant species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The State of the Molecular Gas in Post-starburst Galaxies

The molecular gas in galaxies traces both the fuel for star formation and the processes that can enhance or suppress star formation. Observations of the molecular gas state can thus point to when and why galaxies stop forming stars. In this study, we present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array observations of the molecular gas in galaxies evolving through the post-starburst phase. These galaxies have low current star formation rates (SFRs), regardless of the SFR tracer used, with recent starbursts ending within the last 600 Myr. We present CO (3–2) observations for three post-starburst galaxies, and dense gas HCN/HCO+/HNC (1–0) observations for six (four new) post-starburst galaxies. The post-starbursts have low excitation traced by the CO spectral-line energy distribution up to CO (3–2), more similar to early-type than starburst galaxies. The low excitation indicates that lower density rather than high temperatures may suppress star formation during the post-starburst phase. One galaxy displays a blueshifted outflow traced by CO (3–2). MaNGA observations show that the ionized gas velocity is disturbed relative to the stellar velocity field, with a blueshifted component aligned with the molecular gas outflow, suggestive of a multiphase outflow. Low ratios of HCO + /CO, indicating low fractions of dense molecular gas relative to the total molecular gas, are seen throughout post-starburst phase, except for the youngest post-starburst galaxy considered here. These observations indicate that the impact of any feedback or quenching processes may be limited to low excitation and weak outflows in the cold molecular gas during the post-starburst phase.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

WISDOM project – XVIII. Molecular gas distributions and kinematics of three megamaser galaxies

ABSTRACT The co-evolution of galaxies and supermassive black holes (SMBHs) underpins our understanding of galaxy evolution, but different methods to measure SMBH masses have only infrequently been cross-checked. We attempt to identify targets to cross-check two of the most accurate methods, megamaser, and cold molecular gas dynamics. Three promising galaxies are selected from all those with existing megamaser SMBH mass measurements. We present Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter Array (ALMA) 12CO (2–1) and 230-GHz continuum observations with angular resolutions of ≈0${_{.}^{\prime\prime}}$5. Every galaxy has an extended rotating molecular gas disc and 230-GHz continuum source(s), but all also have irregularities and/or non-axisymmetric features: NGC 1194 is highly inclined and has disturbed and lopsided central 12CO (2–1) emission; NGC 3393 has a nuclear disc with fairly regular but patchy 12CO (2–1) emission with little gas near the kinematic major axis, faint emission in the very centre, and two brighter structures reminiscent of a nuclear ring and/or spiral; NGC 5765B has a strong bar and very bright 12CO (2–1) emission concentrated along two bisymmetric offset dust lanes and two bisymmetric nuclear spiral arms. 12CO (2–1) and 12CO (3–2) observations with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope are compared with the ALMA observations. Because of the disturbed gas kinematics and the impractically long integration times required for higher angular resolution observations, none of the three galaxies is suitable for a future SMBH mass measurement. None the less, increasing the number of molecular gas observations of megamaser galaxies is valuable, and the ubiquitous disturbances suggest a link between large-scale gas properties and the existence of megamasers.

Liang, Fu-Heng (ORCID:0000000324961247)↗

Investigation of Small-Scale Electron Density Irregularities Observed by the Arase and Van Allen Probes Satellites Inside and Outside the Plasmasphere

In situ electron density profiles obtained from Arase in the night magnetic local time (MLT) sector and from RBSP-B covering all MLTs are used to study the small-scale density irregularities present in the plasmasphere and near the plasmapause. Electron density perturbations with amplitudes >10% from background density and with time-scales less than 30-min are investigated here as the small-scale density irregularities. The statistical survey of the density irregularities is carried out using nearly 2 years of density data obtained from RBSP-B and 4 months of data from Arase satellites. The results show that density irregularities are present globally at all MLT sectors and L-shells both inside and outside the plasmapause, with a higher occurrence at L > 4. The occurrence of density irregularities is found to be higher during disturbed geomagnetic and interplanetary conditions. The case studies presented here revealed: (1) The plasmaspheric density irregularities observed during both quiet and disturbed conditions are found to coexist with the hot plasma sheet population. (2) During quiet periods, the plasma waves in the whistler-mode frequency range are found to be modulated by the small-scale density irregularities, with density depletions coinciding well with the decrease in whistler intensity. Our observations suggest that different source mechanisms are responsible for the generation of density structures at different MLTs and geomagnetic conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Don't cross the streams: caustics from fuzzy dark matter

Here we study how tidal streams from globular clusters may be used to constrain the mass of ultra-light dark matter particles, called `fuzzy' dark matter (FDM). A general feature of FDM models is the presence of ubiquitous density fluctuations in bound, virialized dark matter structures, on the scale of the de Broglie wavelength, arising from wave interference in the evolving dark matter distribution. These time-varying fluctuations can disturb the motions of stars, leading to potentially observable signatures in cold thin tidal streams in our own Galaxy. The study of this effect has been hindered by the difficulty in simulating the FDM wavefunction in Milky Way-sized systems. We present a simple method to evolve realistic wavefunctions in nearly static potentials, that should provide an accurate estimate of this granulation effect. We quantify the impact of FDM perturbations on tidal streams, and show that initially, while stream perturbations are small in amplitude, their power spectra exhibit a sharp cutoff corresponding to the de Broglie wavelength of the FDM potential fluctuations. Eventually, when stream perturbations become nonlinear, fold caustics generically arise that lead to density fluctuations with universal behavior. This erases the signature of the de Broglie wavelength in the stream density power spectrum, but we show that it will still be possible to determine the FDM mass in this regime, by considering the fluctuations in quantities like angular momenta or actions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem fires and biomass burning-induced carbon emissions in China over the past two decades

Fire is a major type of disturbance that has important influences on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycles. Yet our understanding of ecosystem fires and their carbon cycle consequences is still limited, largely due to the difficulty of large-scale fire monitoring and the complex interactions between fire, vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic factors. Here, using data from satellite-derived fire observations and ecosystem model simulations, we performed a comprehensive investigation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of China's ecosystem fire disturbances and their carbon emissions over the past two decades (1997–2016). Satellite-derived results showed that on average about 3.47 - 4.53 x 10 4 km 2 of the land was burned annually during the past two decades, among which annual burned forest area was about 0.81 - 1.25 × 10 4 km 2 , accounting for 0.33-0.51% of the forest area in China. Biomass burning emitted about 23.02 TgC per year. Compared to satellite products, simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Land Model (ELM) strongly overestimated China's burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions. Annual burned area and fire-induced carbon emissions were high for boreal forest in Northeast China's Daxing'anling region and subtropical dry forest in South Yunnan, as revealed by both the satellite product and the model simulations. Our results suggest that climate and anthropogenic factors play critical roles in controlling the spatial and seasonal distribution of China's ecosystem fire disturbances. Our findings highlight the importance of multiple complementary approaches in assessing ecosystem fire disturbance and its carbon consequences. Further studies are required to improve the methods of observing and modelling China's ecosystem fire disturbances, which will provide valuable information for fire management and ecosystem sustainability in an era when both human activities and the natural environment are rapidly changing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bridging gaps in permafrost-shrub understanding

Permafrost, permanently frozen ground which underlies much of the Arctic and sub-Arctic, is influenced by deciduous shrubs, yet our understanding of permafrost-shrub interactions is limited. This is largely due to a lack of widespread, long-term, high-quality observations across Arctic and sub-Arctic systems, which are difficult to study due to their remote locations. Shrubs are rapidly expanding in many areas of Arctic tundra and can either amplify or inhibit permafrost thaw, making it crucial that we can understand and predict permafrost-shrub interactions. As we have limited time and resources to make observations, we must design our field campaigns to be as impactful as possible. Below we outline the current state of knowledge and give suggestions about how we can maximize our fieldwork’s impact. From field studies conducted around the Arctic, we know that shrubs generally have a cooling effect on permafrost in the summer, largely caused by the shrub canopy shading the soil. However, summertime cooling can be counteracted by a warming effect in winter, caused by the trapping of blowing snow by shrubs, which leads to increased snow depths. In addition to these commonly observed effects, both observations and models show that other local factors such as climate, soil, snow, and disturbances can interact to cause contrasting dominant effects on permafrost temperatures. For example, shrubs that protrude through the snowpack have been observed to cool permafrost in winter via thermal bridging between the air above the snow and the soil below. However, at other research sites, protruding shrubs lower the surface albedo and cause earlier snowmelt in spring, amplifying permafrost thaw by exposing the soil to thawing earlier. Protruding shrubs have also been observed to induce snow melt in autumn, creating ice layers at the snow surface that prevent further snow accumulation and eliminate the ability of shrubs to trap blowing snow, thereby reducing the winter warming effect. While we understand the physical processes that lead to these effects, we cannot explain why we observe different effects between sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗