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DOE OSTI2022

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2022

MRI-Based Radiotherapy Planning to Reduce Rectal Dose in Excess of Tolerance

Background and Purpose. Chronic rectal toxicity significantly decreases the quality of life for men who receive radiotherapy for prostate cancer. The most significant predictor of rectal toxicity is rectal dose-volume exceeding tolerance. To minimize the volume of rectum in the high dose field, it is essential to accurately define the prostate-rectum interface. This can be challenging to do by computed tomography (CT) imaging alone. The current study was undertaken to formally demonstrate in a clinical trial setting that image-guided intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IG-IMRT) planning using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can reduce the volume of rectum exceeding 70 Gy, a validated metric that predicts the risk of late rectal toxicity. Materials and Methods. This prospective single-arm study enrolled 15 men treated with IG-IMRT for localized prostate cancer. All participants received a dedicated 3 Tesla MRI examination of the prostate in addition to a pelvic CT examination for treatment planning. Two volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans with a prescription dose of 79.2 Gy were designed using identical constraints based on CT- and MRI-defined consensus volumes. The volume of rectum exposed to 70 Gy or more was compared using the Wilcoxon paired signed rank test. Results. For CT-based treatment plans, the median volume of rectum receiving 70 Gy or more was 9.3 cubic centimeters (cc) (IQR 7.0 to 10.2) compared with 4.9 cc (IQR 4.1 to 7.8) for MRI-based plans. This resulted in a median volume reduction of 2.1 cc (IQR 0.5 to 5.3, P < .001). Conclusions. Using MRI to plan prostate IG-IMRT to a dose of 79.2 Gy reduces the volume of rectum receiving radiation dose in excess of tolerance (70 Gy or more) and should be considered in men who are at high risk for late rectal toxicity and are not good candidates for other rectal sparing techniques such as hydrogel spacer. This trial is registered with NCT02470910.

Schmidt, Daniel R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radioactive Source Localization via Bayesian Particle Filter

In the event of a misplaced radioactive source or other emergency situation, measuring a radiation field, mapping its distribution, and determining a source location are essential tasks to ameliorating the situation. However, radiation fields may be extremely hazardous to human surveyors and minimizing received radiation doses is just as essential. Robots appear to be a potential solution to these problems. Beyond simply measuring radiation, the robot's computer processing capabilities offer a way to apply complex data analysis methods to radiation measurements in real-time. Methods which predict likely source locations can then feed this information into other processes, potentially improving path planning and enabling more efficient measurements. Given a robot mounted with a gamma-ray detector, can we: develop a methodology to account for detector performance across a wide range of source angles, distances, and photon energies? operate an autonomously navigating robot to effectively survey and characterize an area of interest? implement a data analysis method, conventionally used in measurements of motion, for source localization purposes? An open-source TurtleBot 3 robot, running Robot Operating System (ROS) on Ubuntu 16.04 LTS, was fitted with a Kromek GR1{sup R} Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) solid-state gamma-ray detector. As a part of ROS, the packages OpenSlam, gmapping, and amcl were used to perform Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), determining the robot's position and mapping the surrounding area. Data was acquired via Lidar mounted on top the TurtleBot 3. Detector Calibration Fit: The equation was fit to 365 counts of various energies, distances, and angles. A MATLAB{sup R} program was written to simulate measurements taken a robot on a random walk, with count data and positions discretized into finite element pixels. Using this program, a sample of 100 runs was performed on a map with a simulated source at the center, with a total of 200 of 2 pixels each. Similarly, multiple runs of the filter were performed on recorded robot measurement data. In both simulation and real tests, when corrected for errors (particles placed outside of bounds or on the robot, and simulation-specific errors), corresponding t-tests of predicted x and y-coordinates were within a 95% confidence interval of the actual position. For the real trial, these positions are slightly skewed right in the x-axis as the robot remained mainly to the left side of the source within the sample area. These simulations demonstrate potential validity for the usage of a particle filter as method of radioactive source localization. In the future, true real-time implementation and data fusion may further augment the performance of the robot to localize lost sources. Additionally, identification of multiple sources, determination of source types, and usage of a collimator are areas to potentially be explored.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comparison of As-loaded Dose Calculations to Measured Dose Rates

Demonstrating that the radiation dose fields surrounding spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage and transportation systems meet the applicable limits set forth in 10 CFR 72 for storage and 10 CFR 71 for transportation is essential for the safe handling of radioactive material. The Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation, and Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS) [2] is used to provide realistic estimates of SNF-related safety margins. The UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate analysis approach differs from that used in typical licensing approaches, which use design-basis assemblies with bounding source term characteristics to demonstrate the packaging design complies with the regulations. These bounding licensing approaches can increase the time needed to qualify fuel for loading into dry storage and the time a loaded system must wait prior to transportation. UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate assessments allow quantification of realistic, uncredited safety margins associated with actual fuel loading compared with the regulatory limits. While realistic estimation of the dose field surrounding SNF systems may allow for additional flexibility in operations, it is essential to understand how these predictions compare to measured doses. The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Integrated Waste Management and the Prairie Island Indian Community conducted a transportation dose assessment to estimate the site-specific incident-free radiation doses from shipping SNF by rail from the Prairie Island Nuclear Generating Plant (PINGP) through the Prairie Island Indian Community Reservation and Trust Land [5,6]. For that effort, the dose rates were obtained for 50 TN-40 and TN-40HT systems in storage configurations. This work compares the predicted dose rates from UNF-ST&DARDS as-loaded calculations with dose rates measured from 50 SNF storage systems at PINGP. The remainder of this paper discusses the data obtained for the evaluation, the modeling methods, and the results of the calculations.

spent nuclear fuel (SNF), UNF-ST&DARDS, Validation↗

DOE OSTI2020

FRMAC Assessment Manual Volume 1 (Overview and Methods)

The Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) Assessment Manual is the tool used to organize and guide activities of the FRMAC Assessment Division. The mission of the FRMAC Assessment Division in a radiological emergency is to interpret radiological data and predict worker and public doses. This information is used by Decision Makers to recommend protective actions in accordance with Protection Action Guides (PAGs) issued by government agencies. This manual integrates many health physics tools and techniques used to make these assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Method for Real-Time Salt Aerosol Concentration and Size Measurements for Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessments

Licensing a new nuclear reactor involves evaluating credible accident scenarios by developing models that simulate accident progression to predict possible outcomes and their impact on safety. The formation of radionuclide-bearing aerosols in the respirable size range can significantly affect dose consequence and threaten human health and is therefore a focus of nuclear reactor safety assessments. Recent reviews of the literature identified a lack of existing experimental data describing the mechanisms of formation and properties (size, concentration, and composition) of radionuclide-bearing aerosols that may be produced from molten salt reactor (MSR) facilities during postulated accident scenarios. Experiments on aerosol formation from molten salt systems are a high priority need that will support MSR licensing by indicating the radiological consequences of aerosol formation and providing the data required for model development and validation. The evolving conditions that occur during a MSR accident, such as a spill of molten fuel salt, may affect aerosol formation mechanisms and aerosol properties over time. There is a need to conduct experiments that simulate credible MSR accidents in a laboratory to generate aerosols with realistic characteristics and behaviors and a need to measure these aerosols in real time under accident-relevant conditions. This report describes the development of a method that can be used to quantify the size and concentration of salt aerosol particles that form from molten salt systems in real time. This method will be employed in future integral effects tests that are conducted at an engineering scale to simulate realistic MSR accidents and in future separate effects tests that will provide mechanistic insight into aerosol formation and properties to support process model development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

CarcSeq Measurement of Rat Mammary Cancer Driver Mutations and Relation to Spontaneous Mammary Neoplasia

Abstract The ability to deduce carcinogenic potential from subchronic, repeat dose rodent studies would constitute a major advance in chemical safety assessment and drug development. This study investigated an error-corrected NGS method (CarcSeq) for quantifying cancer driver mutations (CDMs) and deriving a metric of clonal expansion predictive of future neoplastic potential. CarcSeq was designed to interrogate subsets of amplicons encompassing hotspot CDMs applicable to a variety of cancers. Previously, normal human breast DNA was analyzed by CarcSeq and metrics based on mammary-specific CDMs were correlated with tissue donor age, a surrogate of breast cancer risk. Here we report development of parallel methodologies for rat. The utility of the rat CarcSeq method for predicting neoplastic potential was investigated by analyzing mammary tissue of 16-week-old untreated rats with known differences in spontaneous mammary neoplasia (Fischer 344, Wistar Han, and Sprague Dawley). Hundreds of mutants with mutant fractions ≥ 10−4 were quantified in each strain, most were recurrent mutations, and 42.5% of the nonsynonymous mutations have human homologs. Mutants in the mammary-specific target of the most tumor-sensitive strain (Sprague Dawley) showed the greatest nonsynonymous/synonymous mutation ratio, indicative of positive selection consistent with clonal expansion. For the mammary-specific target (Hras, Pik3ca, and Tp53 amplicons), median absolute deviation correlated with percentages of rats that develop spontaneous mammary neoplasia at 104 weeks (Pearson r = 1.0000, 1-tailed p = .0010). Therefore, this study produced evidence CarcSeq analysis of spontaneously occurring CDMs can be used to derive an early metric of clonal expansion relatable to long-term neoplastic outcome.

McKim, Karen L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unravelling the radiation-induced redox chemistry of plutonium ions in aqueous solution

Plutonium plays a critical role in nuclear fuel cycle technologies, but our understanding of its fundamental radiation-induced redox chemistry is limited. Changes in oxidation states affect the speciation and transport of plutonium ions in solution. For example, solvent extraction techniques used to separate and recover plutonium from used nuclear fuel rely on the selective formation, maintenance, and complexation of specific plutonium oxidation states. However, radiolytically generated radicals, ions, and molecules can drive the oxidation state distribution of plutonium ions far from equilibrium, ultimately changing the physical and chemical properties of the bulk system. These radiation-induced processes are inevitable due to the ionizing radiation fields generated by the radioactive decay of plutonium and its daughter nuclides. Therefore, mechanistically understanding how plutonium's various oxidation states respond to ionizing radiation is essential for predicting its behavior in solution. Here, we present significant advances in our understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry by using time-resolved (electron pulse) and dose accumulation (alpha and gamma) irradiation techniques, along with quantitative multiscale modeling methods.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2026

TEM Approaches for Microstructure-Informed Prediction of Mechanical Properties in Structural Alloys

Predicting the mechanical performance of structural alloys from their evolving microstructure remains a major challenge in materials science, particularly for nuclear structural materials, where irradiation-induced defects span multiple types and length scales and interact through complex mechanisms. The dispersed barrier hardening (DBH) [1] and Friedel–Kroupa–Hirsch (FKH) [2,3] models have been widely used to evaluate the hardening contributions of individual obstacles and to estimate tensile strength from quantified microstructures; however, when multiple size-dependent obstacles coexist and evolve, predicting temperature-dependent tensile strength becomes significantly more complex, and a fully consistent hardening model is still lacking. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) plays a central role in refining hardening models and enabling predictive assessments of tensile strength evolution by providing quantitative characterization of dislocations, irradiation-induced defects (e.g., dislocation loops and cavities), precipitates, and grain structure (Fig. 1.). These experimentally measured defect densities are incorporated into physically based hardening models with size- and shape- dependent obstacle strengths [4], using root-sum-square superposition for obstacles of comparable strength and linear superposition for dissimilar ones [5]. In addition, recent advances in TEM [6-8], including high-resolution imaging, 4D-STEM strain mapping, EDS/EELS elemental analysis, and flash-polishing-based TEM specimen preparation and extraction-replica methods (Fig. 2), further improve the accuracy of microstructural quantification. By comparison with prior studies as well as our own results, we show that when TEM-derived microstructural information is carefully integrated with physically grounded hardening models, yield strength (or irradiation-induced hardening) measured at room temperature can be predicted with good quantitative agreement across multiple alloy classes. In-situ TEM combined with high-temperature mechanical testing represents an important next step for refining hardening models by directly probing dislocation–obstacle interactions across varying irradiation doses and temperatures [9]. Because the barrier strength factor (α) depends on both temperature and obstacle size, it should not be treated as a constant fitting parameter; rather, it must be explicitly evaluated to achieve physically meaningful predictions of mechanical behaviour at operating temperatures. This presentation therefore discusses why all strengthening contributions (e.g., Peierls stress, solid-solution strengthening, voids, bubbles, dislocation loops, dislocation lines, and grain boundaries) must be considered collectively, why appropriate superposition methods are essential when obstacles possess different barrier strength factors, how hardness measurements can be meaningfully related to tensile properties, and how TEM-derived microstructural information can be systematically incorporated into hardening models. More broadly, it outlines a pathway toward microstructure-informed prediction of mechanical properties and supports the goal of establishing science-based tools for evaluating structural materials in extreme environments [10].

Lin, Yan-Ru [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000339991473)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Finch: Toxicity Dose Response Curve Prediction of Chemical Compounds and Mixtures

A paradigm shift in chemical risk assessment is emphasizing mixture testing over single compound analysis, eliminating animal testing, and adopting advanced modeling approaches to understand mixture activity profiles. However, existing computational models largely focus on single chemicals, with few effective solutions for modeling complex mixtures that account for synergistic or antagonistic effects and multiple Modes of Action (MoA). Conventional methods like concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) are insufficient for this task as they are designed for simplistic interactions and struggle to account for the dynamic and multifaceted nature of chemical mixtures, such as overlapping MoA and non-linear interactions. Finch offers a novel approach utilizing deep learning (DL) embeddings and multi-task quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to improve chemical exposure prediction. By leveraging molecular descriptors, physiochemical properties, and large language model (LLM) embeddings from SMILES inputs, Finch preserves critical information in a latent space thereby enhancing predictive accuracy. The multi-task learning aspect of Finch is highly advantageous, as it simultaneously optimizes multiple loss functions, leveraging all available data across tasks to develop generalized representations that effectively capture complex ingredient interactions within mixtures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning and atomic layer deposition: Predicting saturation times from reactor growth profiles using artificial neural networks

In this work, we explore the application of deep neural networks to the optimization of atomic layer deposition (ALD) processes. In particular, we focus on a one-shot optimization problem, where we try to predict the optimal dose time that leads to saturation everywhere in the reactor based on thickness values measured at different points of an ALD reactor after a single trial growth. In order to tackle this problem, we introduce a dataset designed to train neural networks to predict saturation times based on these inputs for a cross-flow ALD reactor. Here, we then explore the predictive ability of artificial neural networks of different depths and sizes using a separate testing dataset to evaluate their accuracies. The results obtained show that networks trained using stochastic gradient descent methods can accurately predict saturation times without requiring any additional information on the surface kinetics. This provides a viable approach to minimize the number of experiments required to optimize new ALD processes in a known reactor, and it highlights the way machine learning can be leveraged for thin film growth and manufacturing. While the datasets and training procedure depend on the reactor geometry, the trained neural networks provide a general surrogate model connecting thickness values and trial dose times with optimal saturation times that can be reused for different ALD processes within the same reactor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fabrication and characterization of boron-terminated tetravacancies in monolayer hBN using STEM, EELS and electron ptychography

Tetravacancies in monolayer hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) with consistent edge termination (boron or nitrogen) form triangular nanopores with electrostatic potentials that can be leveraged for applications such as selective ion transport and neuromorphic computing. In order to quantitatively predict the properties of these structures, an atomic-level understanding of their local electronic and chemical environments is required. Moreover, robust methods for their precision manufacture are needed. Here we use electron irradiation in a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM) at a high dose rate to drive the formation of boron-terminated tetravacancies in monolayer hBN. Characterization of the defects is achieved using aberration-corrected STEM, monochromated electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS), and electron ptychography. Z-contrast in STEM and chemical fingerprinting by core-loss EELS enable identification of the edge terminations, while electron ptychography gives insight into structural relaxation of the tetravacancies and provides evidence of enhanced electron density around the defect perimeters indicative of bonding effects.

2D hBN↗

DOE OSTI2023

A fast Monte Carlo cell-by-cell simulation for radiobiological effects in targeted radionuclide therapy using pre-calculated single-particle track standard DNA damage data

Introduction: We developed a new method that drastically speeds up radiobiological Monte Carlo radiation-track-structure (MC-RTS) calculations on a cell-by-cell basis. Methods: The technique is based on random sampling and superposition of single-particle track (SPT) standard DNA damage (SDD) files from a “pre-calculated” data library, constructed using the RTS code TOPAS-nBio, with “time stamps” manually added to incorporate dose-rate effects. This time-stamped SDD file can then be input into MEDRAS, a mechanistic kinetic model that calculates various radiation-induced biological endpoints, such as DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs), misrepairs and chromosomal aberrations, and cell death. As a benchmark validation of the approach, we calculated the predicted energy-dependent DSB yield and the ratio of direct-to-total DNA damage, both of which agreed with published in vitro experimental data. We subsequently applied the method to perform a superfast cell-by-cell simulation of an experimental in vitro system consisting of neuroendocrine tumor cells uniformly incubated with 177 Lu. Results and discussion: The results for residual DSBs, both at 24 and 48 h post-irradiation, are in line with the published literature values. Our work serves as a proof-of-concept demonstration of the feasibility of a cost-effective “in silico clonogenic cell survival assay” for the computational design and development of radiopharmaceuticals and novel radiotherapy treatments more generally.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Defect-specific strength factors and superposition model for predicting strengthening of ion irradiated Fe18Cr alloy

Here, a high-purity binary alloy Fe18Cr was subjected to heavy-ion irradiation in order to provide improved understanding of the irradiation effect on radiation hardening associated with dislocation loop and network formation, α’ precipitation. The specimens were irradiated with 8 MeV Fe ions (~2 μm ion range) to midrange doses of 0.37 and 3.7 dpa at 300, 350 and 450 °C using dose rates of ~10 –5 –10 –3 dpa/s. Nanoindentation testing was performed to extract the bulk equivalent hardness at low depth from these ion irradiated specimens. High-quality transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images were acquired by utilizing a flash electropolishing method on the Focused Ion Beam (FIB) prepared liftouts. An accurate calculation of the strength factor was provided based on detailed TEM characterization of the irradiated microstructures. A newly refined hardening superposition method was applied to combine the strengthening components from each microstructure. The good agreement between microstructure predicted strength and measured strength further demonstrated the fidelity to use hardening model to quantify the mechanical properties of ion irradiated materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method

The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. Here, the objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison and calibration of dose delivered by 137 Cs and x-ray irradiators in mice

Objective. The Office of Radiological Security, U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration, is implementing a radiological risk reduction program which seeks to minimize or eliminate the use of high activity radiological sources, including 137 Cs, by replacing them with non-radioisotopic technologies, such as x-ray irradiators. The main goal of this paper is to evaluate the equivalence of the dose delivered by gamma- and x-ray irradiators in mice using experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. We also propose a novel biophantom as an in situ dose calibration method. Approach. We irradiated mouse carcasses and 3D-printed mouse biophantoms in a 137 Cs irradiator (Mark I-68) and an x-ray irradiator (X-Rad320) at three voltages (160 kVp, 225 kVp and 320 kVp) and measured the delivered radiation dose. A Geant4-based Monte Carlo model was developed and validated to provide a comprehensive picture of gamma- and x-ray irradiation in mice. Main Results. Our Monte Carlo model predicts a uniform dose delivered in soft-tissue for all the explored irradiation programs and in agreement with the absolute dose measurements. Our Monte Carlo model shows an energy-dependent difference between dose in bone and in soft tissue that decreases as photon energy increases. Dose rate depends on irradiator and photon energy. We observed a deviation of the measured dose from the target value of up to –9% for the Mark I-68, and up to 35% for the X-Rad320. The dose measured in the 3D-printed phantoms are equivalent to that in the carcasses within 6% uncertainty. Significance. Our results suggest that 320 kVp irradiation is a good candidate to substitute 137 Cs irradiation barring a few caveats. There is a significant difference between measured and targeted doses for x-ray irradiation that suggests a strong need for in situ calibration, which can be achieved with 3D-printed mouse biophantoms. A dose correction is necessary for bone doses, which can be provided by a Monte Carlo calculation. Lastly, the biological implications of the differences in dose rates and dose per photon for the different irradiation methods should be carefully assessed for each small-animal irradiation experiment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗