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At least 37 records · Page 2

Using Enhanced Grace Water Storage Data to Improve Drought Detection by the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors

NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites measure time variations of the Earth's gravity field enabling reliable detection of spatio-temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), including groundwater. The U.S. and North American Drought Monitors rely heavily on precipitation indices and do not currently incorporate systematic observations of deep soil moisture and groundwater storage conditions. Thus GRACE has great potential to improve the Drought Monitors by filling this observational gap. GRACE TWS data were assimilating into the Catchment Land Surface Model using an ensemble Kalman smoother enabling spatial and temporal downscaling and vertical decomposition into soil moisture and groundwater components. The Drought Monitors combine several short- and long-term drought indicators expressed in percentiles as a reference to their historical frequency of occurrence. To be consistent, we generated a climatology of estimated soil moisture and ground water based on a 60-year Catchment model simulation, which was used to convert seven years of GRACE assimilated fields into drought indicator percentiles. At this stage we provide a preliminary evaluation of the GRACE assimilated moisture and indicator fields.

Houborg, Rasmus↗

Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth Century North American Drought in a Warmer World

In the mid-twentieth century (1948-1957), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, Southern Plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the Southern Plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above pre-industrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and Southern Plains and intensified in the Southeast, while during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and Southern Plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern US, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.

Benjamin I Cook↗

Development of A Composite Drought Indicator for Operational Drought Monitoring in the MENA Region

This paper presents the composite drought indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian government agencies now produce monthly to support operational drought management decision making, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, engagements with policymakers, and consideration of agencies’ technical and institutional capabilities and constraints, we made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration to tailor the system for each national context. We summarize validation results, drought modelling challenges and how we overcame them through CDI improvements, and we describe the monthly CDI production process and outputs. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development and reflect on the constraints we faced as well as trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring to support policy decision-making—including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy—within each national context.

Karim Bergaoui↗

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

Methods of improving drought and salt resistance in a plant and genetically engineered plants with improved drought and salt resistance

The present disclosure provides methods for increasing drought resistance, salt resistance, and biomass production of a plant. The methods encompass expression of DiGeorge-Syndrome Critical Region 14 (DGCR14) gene in the plant. In comparison to a plant not manipulated in this manner, the disclosed, genetically-modified, plants display improved drought resistance and salt resistance. Also provided are plants that can be obtained by the method according to the invention, and nucleic acid vectors to be used in the described methods.

Xie, Meng↗

Reply to Comment on 'Drought Variability in the Eastern Australia and New Zealand Summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500-2012) Modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation'

This reply is in response to Vance et al (2017), who expressed concern that their Law Dome summer sea salt record (LDsss; Vance et al 2013) and two Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) reconstructions (PLF and DT-median; Vance et al 2015) were not compared properly in our recent study (Palmer et al 2015) describing the eastern Australian and New Zealand summer Drought Atlas (ANZDA) and that this omission mischaracterizes their records.

Palmer, Jonathan G.↗

Hanging by a thread? Forests and drought

Trees are the living foundations on which most terrestrial biodiversity is built. Central to the success of trees are their woody bodies, which connect their elevated photosynthetic canopies with the essential belowground activities of water and nutrient acquisition. The slow construction of these carbon-dense, woody skeletons leads to a slow generation time, leaving trees and forests highly susceptible to rapid changes in climate. Other long-lived, sessile organisms such as corals appear to be poorly equipped to survive rapid changes, which raises questions about the vulnerability of contemporary forests to future climate change. The emerging view that, similar to corals, tree species have rather inflexible damage thresholds, particularly in terms of water stress, is especially concerning. This Review examines recent progress in our understanding of how the future looks for forests growing in a hotter and drier atmosphere.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS.

GDIS↗

Soil microbiome resilience to short-term (30 days, 90 days) and long-term (1000 days) drought

This dataset contains data used for the paper "Drought duration does not impact soil microbiome resilience". The Related References will be updated with a full citation when available. Increasing global droughts exert large but poorly understood effects on the microbial communities and ecology of soil. Microbial communities generally show resilience and return to pre-drought conditions when short-term droughted soils are rewet; soils exposed to long-term drought, however, often show a lag upon rewetting, after which microbial communities may or may not return to their pre-stressed conditions. Though short-term droughts have been widely studied, long-term drought manipulation experiments remain rare, especially those that compare microbial response to short-term and long-term drought in tandem. We conducted a 1000-day drought simulation in controlled laboratory conditions with soil cores collected from a tidal freshwater ecosystem in Washington state, USA, and subsequently exposed them to rewetting for two weeks. We also included short-term (30-day and 90-day) drought and rewet treatments to directly compare microbial community and organic matter responses across drought durations. We found distinct microbial taxa belonging to Firmicutes and Actinobacteria enriched after the 1000-day drought, but not after the short-term droughts. While we hypothesized that the microbial community would recover from a short-term drought after rewetting to resemble pre-drought conditions, our results revealed community dissimilarities between rewet and pre-drought conditions across all drought durations. These findings suggest unique microbial life history strategies within certain microbial phyla that make them successful colonizers during an extended drought period, and the influence of environmental and physiological context on microbial responses to rewetting. The 16SrRNA gene amplicon dataset contains processed DNA sequences in the form of an ASV table with raw unrarefied read counts and representative sequences in .fasta format as described in the ESS-DIVE amplicon sequence reporting format (https://ess-dive.gitbook.io/amplicon-sequencing-reporting-format/instructions). The Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) dataset consists of processed files containing presence absence data of molecular formulae and molecular characterization of FTICR resolved peaks. The Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) dataset contains files relevant to NMR spectra and peaks. A sample key file and a sample metadata file is included for the FTICR/NMR and 16S dataset respectively.

1000-day drought↗

Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles

Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe and mild drought cause distinct phylogenetically linked shifts in the blue grama (Bouteloua gracilis) rhizobiome

Plants rely on a diverse rhizobiome to regulate nutrient acquisition and plant health. With increasing severity and frequency of droughts worldwide due to climate change, untangling the relationships between plants and their rhizobiomes is vital to maintaining agricultural productivity and protecting ecosystem diversity. While some plant physiological responses to drought are generally conserved, patterns of root exudation (release of small metabolites shown to influence microbes) and the consequential effects on the plant rhizobiome can differ widely across plant species under drought. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a greenhouse study using blue grama ( Bouteloua gracilis ), a drought-tolerant C4 grass native to shortgrass prairie across North American plains, as a model organism to study the effect of increasing drought severity (ambient, mild drought, severe drought) on root exudation and the rhizobiome. Our previous results demonstrated physiological effects of increasing drought severity including an increase in belowground carbon allocation through root exudation and shifts in root exudate composition concurrent with the gradient of drought severity. This work is focused on the rhizobiome community structure using targeted sequencing and found that mild and severe drought resulted in unique shifts in the bacterial + archaeal and fungal communities relative to ambient, non-droughted controls. Specifically, using the change in relative abundance between ambient and drought conditions for each ZOTU as a surrogate for population-scale drought tolerance (e.g., as a response trait), we found that rhizobiome response to drought was non-randomly distributed across the phylogenies of both communities, suggesting that Planctomycetota , Thermoproteota (formerly Thaumarchaeota ), and the Glomeromycota were the primary clades driving these changes. Correlation analyses indicated weak correlations between droughted community composition and a select few root exudate compounds previously implicated in plant drought responses including pyruvic acid, D-glucose, and myoinositol. This study demonstrates the variable impacts of drought severity on the composition of the blue grama rhizobiome and provides a platform for hypothesis generation for targeted functional studies of specific taxa involved in plant-microbe drought responses.

Goemann, Hannah M.↗