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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

DeepClimGAN: A High-Resolution Climate Data Generator

Earth system models (ESMs), which simulate the physics and chemistry of the global atmosphere, land, and ocean, are often used to generate future projections of climate change scenarios. These models are far too computationally inten- sive to run repeatedly, but limited sets of runs are insufficient for some important applications, like adequately sampling distribution tails to characterize extreme events. As a com- promise, emulators are substantially less expensive but may not have all of the complexity of an ESM. Here we demon- strate the use of a conditional generative adversarial network (GAN) to act as an ESM emulator. In doing so, we gain the ability to produce daily weather data that is consistent with what ESM might output over any chosen scenario. In particular, the GAN is aimed at representing a joint proba- bility distribution over space, time, and climate variables, enabling the study of correlated extreme events, such as floods, droughts, or heatwaves.

Extreme events, Machine Learning, deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Water innovation and ecological transformation: entrepreneurial approaches to advancing sustainable solutions

Climate change and decades of water mismanagement have created a "three-headed" global water crisis. People have contaminated water and depleted water sources, and human activity like deforestation and agriculture has altered rainfall patterns; we face the prospect of a 40% shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030. Meanwhile, climate change, water mismanagement and biodiversity loss interact to cause more frequent and severe episodes of too much or too little water, such as storms, floods, droughts, and wildfires.

Bryan, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2020

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Buffering the impacts of extreme climate variability in the highly engineered Tigris Euphrates river system

More extreme and prolonged floods and droughts, commonly attributed to global warming, are affecting the livelihood of major sectors of the world’s population in many basins worldwide. While these events could introduce devastating socioeconomic impacts, highly engineered systems are better prepared for modulating these extreme climatic variabilities. Herein, we provide methodologies to assess the effectiveness of reservoirs in managing extreme floods and droughts and modulating their impacts in data-scarce river basins. Our analysis of multiple satellite missions and global land surface models over the Tigris-Euphrates Watershed (TEW; 30 dams; storage capacity: 250 km 3 ), showed a prolonged (2007–2018) and intense drought (Average Annual Precipitation [AAP]: < 400 km 3 ) with no parallels in the past 100 years (AAP during 1920–2020: 538 km 3 ) followed by 1-in-100-year extensive precipitation event (726 km 3 ) and an impressive recovery (113 ± 11 km 3 ) in 2019 amounting to 50% of losses endured during drought years. Dam reservoirs captured water equivalent to 40% of those losses in that year. Additional studies are required to investigate whether similar highly engineered watersheds with multi-year, high storage capacity can potentially modulate the impact of projected global warming-related increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and drought events in the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Leading Modes of Asian Summer Monsoon Variability as Pulses of Atmospheric Energy Flow

Monsoon rainfall anomalies are often organized into dynamical modes that are more predictable than rainfall at specific locations. Here a linear response function (LRF) is constructed to extract the neutral modes (NM) of the dynamical atmospheric system and their optimal forcing that govern precipitation variability, providing a dynamical underpinning for the empirically derived, recurrent rainfall patterns. The leading mode (NM1) features a shift in the Atlantic ITCZ, a drying over the Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent, and a “South-Flood-North Drought (SFND)” pattern over eastern China, a pattern inferable from changes in the atmospheric energy flow forced by the corresponding optimal forcing and further enhanced by the water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Moreover, the slow evolving component of the NM1 in response to CO2 forcing can be skillfully predicted by running the ocean heat uptake through the LRF, implicating a deterministic ocean dynamic source for the NM1-like trend under climate warming.

monsoon mode of variability, EBM, climate change, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Asymmetric response of Amazon forest water and energy fluxes to wet and dry hydrological extremes reveals onset of a local drought-induced tipping point

Understanding the effects of intensification of Amazon basin hydrological cycling—manifest as increasingly frequent floods and droughts—on water and energy cycles of tropical forests is essential to meeting the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, including forest “tipping points”. Here, we investigated the impacts of hydrological extremes on forest function using 12+ years of observations (between 2001–2020) of water and energy fluxes from eddy covariance, along with associated ecological dynamics from biometry, at the Tapajós National Forest. Measurements encompass the strong 2015–2016 El Niño drought and La Niña 2008–2009 wet events. We found that the forest responded strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Drought reduced water availability for evapotranspiration ( ET ) leading to large increases in sensible heat fluxes ( H ). Partitioning ET by an approach that assumes transpiration ( T ) is proportional to photosynthesis, we found that water stress-induced reductions in canopy conductance ( G s ) drove T declines partly compensated by higher evaporation ( E ). By contrast, the abnormally wet La Niña period gave higher T and lower E , with little change in seasonal ET . Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events resulted in changes in forest structure, manifested as lower wet-season leaf area index. However, only during El Niño 2015–2016, we observed a breakdown in the strong meteorological control of transpiration fluxes (via energy availability and atmospheric demand) because of slowing vegetation functions (via shutdown of G s and significant leaf shedding). Drought-reduced T and G s , higher H and E , amplified by feedbacks with higher temperatures and vapor pressure deficits, signaled that forest function had crossed a threshold, from which it recovered slowly, with delay, post-drought. In conclusion, identifying such tipping point onsets (beyond which future irreversible processes may occur) at local scale is crucial for predicting basin-scale threshold-crossing changes in forest energy and water cycling, leading to slow-down in forest function, potentially resulting in Amazon forests shifting into alternate degraded states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fermentation‐mediated growth, signaling, and defense in plants

Summary While traditionally considered important mainly in hypoxic roots during flooding, upregulation of fermentation pathways in plants has recently been described as an evolutionarily conserved drought survival strategy, with acetate signaling mediating reprograming of transcription and cellular carbon and energy metabolism from roots to leaves. The amount of acetate produced directly correlates with survival through potential mechanisms including defense gene activation, biosynthesis of primary and secondary metabolites, and aerobic respiration. Here, we review root ethanolic fermentation responses to hypoxia during saturated soil conditions and summarize studies highlighting acetate fermentation under aerobic conditions coupled with respiration during growth and drought responses. Recent work is discussed demonstrating long‐distance transport of acetate via the transpiration stream as a respiratory substrate. While maintenance and growth respiration are often modeled separately in terrestrial models, here we propose the concept of ‘Defense Respiration’ fueled by acetate fermentation in which upregulation of acetate fermentation contributes acetate substrate for alternative energy production via aerobic respiration, biosynthesis of primary and secondary metabolites, and the acetylation of proteins involved in defense gene regulation. Finally, we highlight new frontiers in leaf‐atmosphere emission measurements as a potential way to study acetate fermentation responses of individual leaves, branches, ecosystems, and regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power Plant Water Risk and Adaptive Measures Database

Project objective was to understand water-related constraints affecting conventional powerplant operations, specifically coal-fired power plants. Of concern were threats related to drought and flood affecting both water supply and ability of plant to discharge wastewater. Also of interest were adaptive measures taken to mitigate identified threats. This spreadsheet contains the responses provided by the power plant operators and owners. Data have been "sanitized" (e.g., random plant ID, binned location and generation capacity information) to ensure anonymity of individual power plants.

Adaptive Measures↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data for "Soil carbon dynamics during drying vs. rewetting: Importance of antecedent moisture conditions"

This dataset contains data used for the paper "Soil carbon dynamics during drying vs. rewetting: importance of antecedent moisture conditions". The Related References field will be updated with a full citation when available.Soil moisture influences soil carbon dynamics, including microbial growth and respiration. The response of such ‘soil respiration’ to moisture changes is generally assumed to be linear and reversible, i.e. to depend only on the current moisture state. Current models thus do not account for antecedent soil moisture conditions when determining soil respiration or the available substrate pool. We conducted a laboratory incubation to determine how the antecedent conditions of drought and flood influenced soil organic matter (SOM) chemistry, bioavailability, and respiration. We sampled soils from an upland coastal forest, Beaver Creek, WA USA, and subjected them to drying and rewetting treatments. For the drying treatment, field moist soils were saturated and then dried to 75, 50, 35, and 5 % saturation. In the rewetting treatment, field moist soils were air-dried and then rewet to 35, 50, 75, and 100 % saturation. We measured respiration and water extractable organic carbon (WEOC) concentrations and used 1H-NMR and FT-ICR-MS to characterize the WEOC pool across the treatments. The drying vs. wetting treatment strongly influenced SOM bioavailability, as rewet soils (with antecedent drought) had greater WEOC concentrations and respiration fluxes compared to the drying soils (with antecedent flood). In addition, air-dry soils had the highest WEOC concentrations, and the NMR-resolved peaks showed a strong contribution of protein groups in these soils. Both NMR and FT-ICR-MS analyses indicated increased contribution of complex aromatic groups/molecules in the rewet soils, compared to the drying soils. We suggest that drying introduced organic matter into the WEOC pool via desorption of aromatic molecules and/or by microbial cell lysis, and this stimulated microbial mineralization rates. Our work indicates that even short-term shifts in antecedent moisture conditions can strongly influence soil C dynamics at the core scale. The predictive uncertainties in current soil models may be reduced by a more accurate representation of soil water and C persistence that includes a mechanistic and quantitative understanding of the impact of antecedent moisture conditions.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv and .txt format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. NMR data are provided as raw output data (accessed in Bruker TopSpin or MestreNova) as well as the MestreNova-processed files. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/kaizadp/hysteresis_and_soil_carbon (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4432885).

1H-NMR↗
DOE OSTI2025

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗