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At least 37 records · Page 2

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Projected End-of-Century Changes in the South American Monsoon in the CESM Large Ensemble

Projected changes in the South American monsoon system by the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). The wet season is shorter in LENS when compared to observations, with the mean onset occurring 19 days later and the mean retreat date 21 days earlier in the season. Despite a precipitation bias, the seasonality of rainfall over South America is reproduced in LENS, as well as the main circulation features associated with the development of the South American monsoon. Both the onset and retreat of the wet season over South America are delayed in the future compared to current climate by 3 and 7 days, respectively, with a slightly longer wet season. Central and southeastern Brazil are projected to get wetter as a result of moisture convergence from the strengthening of the South Atlantic low-level jet and a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high. The Amazon is projected to get drier by the end of the century, negatively affecting rain forest productivity. During the wet season, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is found over most of South America, and especially over northeastern and southern Brazil and La Plata. Meanwhile, during the dry season an increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days is found over northeastern Brazil and the northern Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of precipitation across the contiguous United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico in multi-decadal convection-permitting simulations

Abstract This study is an early effort to generate a multi-decadal convection-permitting regional climate dataset that covers nearly the entire North American continent. We assessed a 20 year dynamically downscaled regional climate simulation at a 4 km spatial resolution with explicit convection across the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Specifically, we evaluated the model’s performance in representing mean, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation across regions. Our findings indicate that when compared with ERA5 reanalysis, the forcing data, convection-permitting simulation improves representations of seasonal, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation over a large portion of the CONUS, Alaska, and Puerto Rico, particularly in areas where precipitation is heaviest. The simulation adds value over its forcing data (ERA5) in up to 53% of all grid cells in the CONUS, 68.8% in Alaska, and 84.0% in Puerto Rico. It is important to note that, however, despite improvements, model errors in Puerto Rico remain large. Similar improvements are observed in extreme indices, including consecutive dry days, maximum 5 days precipitation, and extreme precipitation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of mean hourly precipitation suggests that representations of convective processes—including onset, dissipation, suppression, downstream propagation, and local circulation—improved overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride and root-zone acidity on inorganic ion content of tobacco

Tobacco plants (Nicotiana tabacum L. cv NC82) were supplied with (NH4)2SO4 or NH4Cl at root-zone pH of 6.0 and 4.5 in hydroponic culture for 28 days. Dry matter accumulation, total N and C content, and leaf area and number were not affected by the NH4+ source or root-zone pH. Plants supplied with NH4Cl accumulated up to 1.2 mM Cl g DW-1, but accumulated 37% less inorganic H2PO4- and 47% less SO4(2-) than plants supplied with (NH4)2SO4. The large Cl- accumulation resulted in NH4Cl- supplied plants having a 31% higher inorganic anion (NO3-, H2, PO4-, SO4(2-), and Cl-) charge. This higher inorganic anion charge in the NH4Cl-supplied plants was balanced by a similar increase in K+ charge. Plants supplied with NH4Cl accumulated greater concentrations of Cl- in leaves (up to 5.1% of DW) than plants supplied with (NH4)2SO4 (less than -% DW). Despite the high Cl- concentration of leaves in NH4Cl supplied plants, these plants showed no symptoms of Cl- toxicity. This demonstrates that toxicity symptoms are not due solely to an interaction between high Cl- concentration in tissue and NH4+ nutrition. The increase in root-zone acidity to pH 4.5 from 6.0 did not induce toxicity symptoms.

NASA Program CELSS↗

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

rainfall variability↗

Extreme Wet and Dry Conditions Affected Differently by Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Global warming due to greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols alter precipitation rates, but the influence on extreme precipitation by aerosols relative to greenhouse gases is still not well known. Here we use the simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project that enable us to compare changes in mean and extreme precipitation due to greenhouse gases with those due to black carbon and sulfate aerosols, using indicators for dry extremes as well as for moderate and very extreme precipitation. Generally, we find that the more extreme a precipitation event is, the more pronounced is its response relative to global mean surface temperature change, both for aerosol and greenhouse gas changes. Black carbon (BC) stands out with distinct behavior and large differences between individual models. Dry days become more frequent with BC-induced warming compared to greenhouse gases, but so does the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation. An increase in sulfate aerosols cools the surface and thereby the atmosphere, and thus induces a reduction in precipitation with a stronger effect on extreme than on mean precipitation. A better understanding and representation of these processes in models will provide knowledge for developing strategies for both climate change and air pollution mitigation.

Sillmann, Jana↗

Downwelling Far-Infrared Emission Spectra Measured by FIRST at Cerro Toco, Chile and Table Mountain Facility, CA

The Far-Infrared Spectroscopy of the Troposphere (FIRST) instrument is a fourier transform spectrometer developed to measure the far-infrared portion of the Earth's longwave spectrum. Specifically, the purpose is measurement of the important, yet under-investigated 100 to 1000 cm-1 band. Presented here are measurements made by FIRST at two successful deployments in a ground-based configuration to measure downwelling longwave radiation. The initial deployment was to Cerro Toco, Chile. FIRST operated from August to October, 2009 as part of the Radiative Heating in Underexplored Bands Campaign (RHUBC-II) campaign. After recalibration, FIRST was deployed to the Table Mountain Facility from August to October, 2012. Dry days for both campaigns were chosen for analysis ? 09/24/2009 and 10/19/2012. Also available from both deployments are coincident radiosonde temperature and water vapor vertical profiles used as inputs to radiance calculations performed by two platforms, the AER Line-by-Line Radiative Transform Model (using the AER line database), and a research platform, MRTA utilizing HITRAN 2012. Thus, we have three streams of data for the closure studies, and results of the comparisons are presented showing good agreement in the optically thick regions of 200-400 cm-1 and 600-800 cm-1. Differences between measured and coincident calculated spectra between 400 and 600 cm-1 are less than 10 mW/m^2/sr/cm-1. Uncertainties accounted for in this study include uncertainty from multiple detectors, water vapor, temperature, line strength and width as presented in HITRAN 2012, and due to internal heating caused by black bodies. The residuals fall within the root-sum-square envelope of the uncertainties.

J Mast↗

Composting on Mars or the Moon: II. Temperature feedback control with top-wise introduction of waste material and air

Whereas Earth-based composting reactors that effectively control the process are batch operations with bottom-to-top airflow, in extraterrestrial application both the fresh waste and the air need to be introduced from above. Stabilized compost and used air would exit below. This materials flow pattern permits the addition of waste whenever generated, obviating the need for multiple reactors, and the incorporation of a commode in the lid. Top loading in turn dictates top-down aeration, so that the most actively decomposing material (greatest need for heat removal and O2 replenishment) is first encountered. This novel material and aeration pattern was tested in conjunction with temperature feedback process control. Reactor characteristics were: working, volume, 0.15 m3; charge, 2 kg dry biomass per day (comparable to a 3-4 person self-sufficient bioregenerative habitat); retention time, 7 days. Judging from temperature profile, O2 level, air usage, pressure head loss, moisture, and odor, the system was effectively controlled over a 35-day period. Dry matter disappearance averaged 25% (10-42%). The compost product was substantially, though not completely, stabilized. This demonstrates the compatibility of top-wise introduction of waste and air with temperature feedback process control.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Interannual variability and trends of summertime PM2.5-based air quality in the Intermountain West

Abstract Summertime air quality is a growing public health concern in the populated region of Northern Utah. Whereas winter air pollution is highly linked with local atmospheric temperature inversions associated with upper atmospheric high-pressure and radiational cooling in valleys, the relationship between climate factors and the frequency of poor air quality during summer is still unknown. Analyzing the last 20 years of data, we demonstrated that summertime unhealthy days (as defined by PM2.5 air quality index level) in Northern Utah highly correlate with the number of dry-hot days, wildfire size, and an upper atmospheric ridge over the Northwestern United States. The persistent atmospheric ridge enhances lightning-caused fire burned areas in northwestern states and then transports the wildfire smoke toward Northern Utah. Similarly, climate model simulations confirm observational findings, such as an increasing trend of the upper atmospheric ridge and summertime dry days in the northwestern states. Such metrics developed in this study could be used to establish longer-term monitoring and seasonal forecasting for air quality and its compounding factors, which is currently limited to forecasting products for only several days.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Automated Detection Methodology for Dry Well-Mixed Layers

The intense surface heating over arid land surfaces produces dry well-mixed layers (WML) via dry convection. These layers are characterized by nearly constant potential temperature and low, nearly constant water vapor mixing ratio. To further the study of dry WMLs, we created a detection methodology and supporting software to automate the identification and characterization of dry WMLs from multiple data sources including rawinsondes, remote sensing platforms, and model products. The software is a modular code written in Python, an open source language. Radiosondes from a network of synoptic stations in North Africa were used to develop and test the WML detection process. The detection involves an iterative decision tree that ingests a vertical profile from an input data file, performs a quality check for sufficient data density, and then searches upward through the column for successive points where the simultaneous changes in water vapor mixing ratio and potential temperature are less than the specified maxima. If points in the vertical profile meet the dry WML identification criteria, statistics are generated detailing the characteristics of each layer in the profile. At the end of the vertical profile analysis, there is an option to plot analyzed profiles in a variety of file formats. Initial results show that the detection methodology can be successfully applied across a wide variety of input data and North African environments and for all seasons. It is sensitive enough to identify dry WMLs from other types of isentropic phenomena such as subsidence layers and distinguish the current day’s dry WML from previous days.

Stephen D. Nicholls↗

Closing the Loop on Space Trash / Is a Circular Economy Possible?

A crew member will nominally consume 2.5 kg of water per crew-member per day, rejectapproximately 0.032 kg of dry fecal solid waste per crew member per day (dry basis)and generate approximately 2,122 kg of logistical waste per year on a long-durationcrewed mission. This topic seeks to push the conversation towards completing a closedloop system and circular economy for all materials and recoverable resources withregard to waste management, regenerative water use, and recycling. In all aspects,reduction of crew maintenance time, mass, power and volume are at the forefront oftechnology development. In addition, the longevity and hardware robustness is important(lasting >3 years). Overall water recovery of >98% is desired, as well as, condensingheat exchangers that remove water from air with collection rates up to 1.45 kg of waterper hour. There are many technologies on the ground being developed for recycling andtrash management or regenerative water use that have yet to introduce themselves forspace development and infusion. Here we look to open the conversation and cross cutthese platforms to bring out some innovation and exposure into the hidden crevasses ofthe waste that humans create and how to minimize it/repurpose it, for all of humanity.

ISRU↗

New Evidence for the Importance of Non-Stomatal Pathways in Ozone Deposition During Extreme Heat and Dry Anomalies

Dry deposition could partially explain the observed response in ambient ozone to extreme hot and dry episodes. We examine the response of ozone deposition to heat and dry anomalies using three long-term co-located ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor and ozone flux measurement records. We find that, as expected, canopy stomatal conductance generally decreases during days with dry air or soil. However, during hot days, concurrent increases in non-stomatal conductance are inferred at all three sites, which may be related to several temperature-sensitive processes not represented in the current generation of big-leaf models. This may offset the reduction in stomatal conductance, leading to smaller net reduction, or even net increase, in total deposition velocity. We find the response of deposition velocity to soil dryness may be related to its impact on photosynthetic activity, though considerable variability exists. Our findings emphasize the need for better understanding and representation of non-stomatal ozone deposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low ozone dry deposition rates to sea ice during the MOSAiC field campaign: Implications for the Arctic boundary layer ozone budget

Dry deposition to the surface is one of the main removal pathways of tropospheric ozone (O 3 ). We quantified for the first time the impact of O 3 deposition to the Arctic sea ice on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) O 3 concentration and budget using year-round flux and concentration observations from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) campaign and simulations with a single-column atmospheric chemistry and meteorological model (SCM). Based on eddy-covariance O 3 surface flux observations, we find a median surface resistance on the order of 20,000 s m –1 , resulting in a dry deposition velocity of approximately 0.005 cm s –1 . This surface resistance is up to an order of magnitude larger than traditionally used values in many atmospheric chemistry and transport models. The SCM is able to accurately represent the yearly cycle, with maxima above 40 ppb in the winter and minima around 15 ppb at the end of summer. However, the observed springtime ozone depletion events are not captured by the SCM. In winter, the modelled PBL O 3 budget is governed by dry deposition at the surface mostly compensated by downward turbulent transport of O 3 towards the surface. Advection, which is accounted for implicitly by nudging to reanalysis data, poses a substantial, mostly negative, contribution to the simulated PBL O 3 budget in summer. During episodes with low wind speed (<5 m s –1 ) and shallow PBL (<50 m), the 7-day mean dry deposition removal rate can reach up to 1.0 ppb h –1 . Our study highlights the importance of an accurate description of dry deposition to Arctic sea ice in models to quantify the current and future O 3 sink in the Arctic, impacting the tropospheric O 3 budget, which has been modified in the last century largely due to anthropogenic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical and economic feasibility of an integrated ethanol and anthocyanin coproduction process using purple corn stover

The coproduction of high-value anthocyanin extract in the cellulosic ethanol process would diversify the co-product market, increase revenue, and potentially improve the economics of the process. The high anthocyanin concentration in the cob and structural carbohydrates in residual stover make purple corn stover an attractive source for anthocyanin and ethanol coproduction. In this study, we aimed to develop simulation models for processes integrating ethanol production and anthocyanin extraction using purple corn stover, to evaluate their techno-economic feasibility, and to compare their performance with the conventional ethanol production process using corn stover. The annual ethanol production for plants processing 2000 MT dry feedstock / day was 148.6 million L/year for the integrated processes compared with 222.6 million L/year for the conventional process. Anthocyanin production in the modified processes using dilute acid-based and water-based anthocyanin extraction processes was 1779 and 1099 MT/year, respectively. Capital investments for the integrated processes ($\$448.1$ to $\$443.8$ million) were higher than the conventional process ($\$371.9$ million). Due to high revenue from anthocyanin extract, the ethanol production cost for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($\$0.36$/L) was 34.5% lower than conventional ethanol production ($\$0.55$/L). The ethanol production cost for the integrated process using water-based anthocyanin extraction ($\$0.68$/L) was higher than conventional ethanol production due to low ethanol and anthocyanin yields. The minimum ethanol selling price for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($\$0.65$/L) was also lower than the conventional process ($\$0.72$/L), indicating an improvement in economic performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events and possible implications for Cameroon's socio-economic sectors

Extreme events like flooding, droughts and heatwave are among the factors causing huge socio-economic losses to Cameroonians. Investigating the potential response of rainfall and temperature extremes to global warming is therefore critically needed for tailoring and adjusting the country's policies. Recent datasets have been developed for this purpose within the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) initiative, at ~25 km grid spacing. These regional climate models were used to dynamically downscaled four global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), under the optimistic and pessimistic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. These models were employed in this study for characterizing the response of Cameroon's extreme precipitation and temperature events to global warming, using seven indices defined by the Expert Team on Cli mate Change Detection and Indices. Under global warming, the maximum number of consecutive dry (wet) days' is expected to increase (decrease). However, the annual total rainfall amount is expected to increase, mainly due to the intensification of very wet days and daily rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the temperature-based indices reveal an increase (decrease) in the total annual hot (cold) days, and overall, changes intensify with increased radiative forcing. The high-mitigated low-emission pathway RCP2.6 features attenuated changes, and even sometimes adapts to reverse the sign of changes. Designing reliable policies to limit the risks associated with the above changes is required, as their socio-economic consequences are likely to include food insecurity, heat-related illness, population impoverishment, price rises and market instability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data from Technical and Economic Feasibility of an Integrated Ethanol and Anthocyanin Coproduction Process Using Purple Corn Stover

The coproduction of high-value anthocyanin extract in the cellulosic ethanol process would diversify the co-product market, increase revenue, and potentially improve the economics of the process. The high anthocyanin concentration in the cob and structural carbohydrates in residual stover make purple corn stover an attractive source for anthocyanin and ethanol coproduction. This study aimed to develop simulation models for processes integrating ethanol production and anthocyanin extraction using purple corn stover, to evaluate their techno-economic feasibility, and to compare their performance with the conventional ethanol production process using corn stover. The annual ethanol production for plants processing 2000 MT dry feedstock / day was 148.6 million L/year for the integrated processes compared with 222.6 million L/year for the conventional process. Anthocyanin production in the modified processes using dilute acid-based and water-based anthocyanin extraction processes was 1779 and 1099 MT/year, respectively. Capital investments for the integrated processes ($448.1 to $443.8 million) were higher than the conventional process ($371.9 million). Due to high revenue from anthocyanin extract, the ethanol production cost for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.36/L) was 34.5% lower than conventional ethanol production ($0.55/L). The ethanol production cost for the integrated process using water-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.68/L) was higher than conventional ethanol production due to low ethanol and anthocyanin yields. The minimum ethanol selling price for the integrated process using acid-based anthocyanin extraction ($0.65/L) was also lower than the conventional process ($0.72/L), indicating an improvement in economic performance.

Conversion↗

Pilot-Scale Algal Oil Production

The main objective of the project is complete: development of a preliminary planning and design for a pilot-scale algal oil cultivation and processing facility, FEL-3 design with -5% / +15% cost estimate accuracy, and conversion of the algal oil to biofuel in an off-site existing bio-oil refinery. The design basis includes 10 tons per day of dried algae cultivated with CO 2 supplied by direct air capture, electricity supplied solar power, well water supply, zero liquid discharge, off-site extraction, and off-site conversion of oil to biofuel. The design and permitting package is an important milestone in the path to commercialization of algal biofuels and bioproducts as it provides the preliminary design, permitting path, long-term land lease, planning documents, and team needed for success in future engineering, construction, start-up and operations of a pilot-scale farm at a site in Paso Robles, CA. Outcomes of the business assessment include (i) identification of a product spectrum for economical algal biofuels using co-products with markets that are commensurate with production of 6-7 billion gallons per year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, and renewable gasoline, (ii) a path toward near-term contribution of algae oil to SAF, and (iii) an approach for long-term operation of a pilot-scale farm.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗