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Duration versus brightness of gamma-ray bursts: Comparisons between SIGNE and BATSE

We analyze duration and brightness distributions of both the SIGNE Venera 13 and 14 and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) gamma-ray burst databases. Choosing T(sub 50) as a measure of the burst duration and using both 64 and 1024 ms peak count rates, we search for correlations between duration, peak brightness, and the ratio V identically equals C(sub 64)/C(sub 1024), proposed as a measure of variability by Lamb, Graziani, & Smith. The duration histogram for SIGNE shows a long-duration peak that is consistent with BATSE, but does not exhibit the short population, instead appearing flat below 0.6 s; the difference is presumably caused by the failure of SIGNE to detect the short, faint bursts that were observed by BATSE. Estimating the instantaneous brightness by C(sub 64), we find that SIGNE confirms the BATSE result that the long and short bursts have similar maximum instantaneous brightnesses. Scatterplots between duration, brightness, and V are consistent for both databases; we show that SIGNE confirms the BATSE observation that there is a lack of bursts that are both bright over 1024 ms and contain a short, bright spike.

Kargatis, V. E.

On-Line Analysis of Physiologic and Neurobehavioral Variables During Long-Duration Space Missions

The goal of this project is to develop reliable statistical algorithms for on-line analysis of physiologic and neurobehavioral variables monitored during long-duration space missions. Maintenance of physiologic and neurobehavioral homeostasis during long-duration space missions is crucial for ensuring optimal crew performance. If countermeasures are not applied, alterations in homeostasis will occur in nearly all-physiologic systems. During such missions data from most of these systems will be either continually and/or continuously monitored. Therefore, if these data can be analyzed as they are acquired and the status of these systems can be continually assessed, then once alterations are detected, appropriate countermeasures can be applied to correct them. One of the most important physiologic systems in which to maintain homeostasis during long-duration missions is the circadian system. To detect and treat alterations in circadian physiology during long duration space missions requires development of: 1) a ground-based protocol to assess the status of the circadian system under the light-dark environment in which crews in space will typically work; and 2) appropriate statistical methods to make this assessment. The protocol in Project 1, Circadian Entrainment, Sleep-Wake Regulation and Neurobehavioral will study human volunteers under the simulated light-dark environment of long-duration space missions. Therefore, we propose to develop statistical models to characterize in near real time circadian and neurobehavioral physiology under these conditions. The specific aims of this project are to test the hypotheses that: 1) Dynamic statistical methods based on the Kronauer model of the human circadian system can be developed to estimate circadian phase, period, amplitude from core-temperature data collected under simulated light- dark conditions of long-duration space missions. 2) Analytic formulae and numerical algorithms can be developed to compute the error in the estimates of circadian phase, period and amplitude determined from the data in Specific Aim 1. 3) Statistical models can detect reliably in near real- time (daily) significant alternations in the circadian physiology of individual subjects by analyzing the circadian and neurobehavioral data collected in Project 1. 4) Criteria can be developed using the Kronauer model and the recently developed Jewett model of cognitive -performance and subjective alertness to define altered circadian and neurobehavioral physiology and to set conditions for immediate administration of countermeasures.

Brown, Emery N.

Comparison of Postural Recovery Following Short and Long Duration Spaceflights

INTRODUCTION: Post-flight postural ataxia reflects adaptive changes to vestibulo-spinal reflexes and control strategies adopted for movement in weightlessness. Quantitative measures obtained during computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) from US and Russian programs provide insight into the effect of spaceflight duration in terms of both the initial decrements and recovery of postural stability. METHODS: CDP was obtained on 117 crewmembers following Shuttle flights lasting 4-17 days, and on 64 crewmembers following long-duration missions lasting 48-380 days. Although the number and timing of sessions varied, the goal was to characterize postural recovery pooling similar measures from different research and flight medicine programs. This report focuses on eyes closed, head erect conditions with either a fixed or sway-referenced base of support. A smaller subset of subjects repeated the sway-referenced condition while making pitch head movements (+/- 20deg at 0.33Hz). Equilibrium scores were derived from peak-to-peak anterior-posterior sway. Fall probability was modeled using Bayesian statistical methods to estimate parameters of a logit function. RESULTS: The standard Romberg condition was the least sensitive. Longer duration flights led to larger decrements in stability with sway-reference support during the first 1-2 days, although the timecourse of recovery was similar across flight duration with head erect. Head movements led to increased incidence of falls during the first week, with a significantly longer recovery following long duration flights. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic assessment of postural instability, and differences in the timecourse of postural recovery between short and long flight durations, are more pronounced during unstable support conditions requiring active head movements.

Wood, S. J.

Slow Wave Sleep and Long Duration Spaceflight

While ground research has clearly shown that preserving adequate quantities of sleep is essential for optimal health and performance, changes in the progression, order and /or duration of specific stages of sleep is also associated with deleterious outcomes. As seen in Figure 1, in healthy individuals, REM and Non-REM sleep alternate cyclically, with stages of Non-REM sleep structured chronologically. In the early parts of the night, for instance, Non-REM stages 3 and 4 (Slow Wave Sleep, or SWS) last longer while REM sleep spans shorter; as night progresses, the length of SWS is reduced as REM sleep lengthens. This process allows for SWS to establish precedence , with increases in SWS seen when recovering from sleep deprivation. SWS is indeed regarded as the most restorative portion of sleep. During SWS, physiological activities such as hormone secretion, muscle recovery, and immune responses are underway, while neurological processes required for long term learning and memory consolidation, also occur. The structure and duration of specific sleep stages may vary independent of total sleep duration, and changes in the structure and duration have been shown to be associated with deleterious outcomes. Individuals with narcolepsy enter sleep through REM as opposed to stage 1 of NREM. Disrupting slow wave sleep for several consecutive nights without reducing total sleep duration or sleep efficiency is associated with decreased pain threshold, increased discomfort, fatigue, and the inflammatory flare response in skin. Depression has been shown to be associated with a reduction of slow wave sleep and increased REM sleep. Given research that shows deleterious outcomes are associated with changes in sleep structure, it is essential to characterize and mitigate not only total sleep duration, but also changes in sleep stages.

Whitmire, Alexandra

Pilot Field Test: Use of a Compression Garment During a Stand Test After Long-Duration Space Flight

Orthostatic intolerance (OI) is a concern for astronauts returning from long-duration space flight. One countermeasure that has been used to protect against OI after short-duration bed rest and space flight is the use of lower body and abdominal compression garments. However, since the end of the Space Shuttle era we have not been able to test crewmembers during the first 24 hours after landing on Earth. NASA's Pilot Field Test provided us the opportunity to test cardiovascular responses of crewmembers wearing the Russian Kentavr compression garment during a stand test at multiple time points throughout the first 24 hours after landing. HYPOTHESIS We hypothesized that the Kentavr compression garment would prevent an increase in heart rate (HR) >15 bpm during a 3.5-min stand test. METHODS: The Pilot Field Test was conducted up to 3 times during the first 24 hours after crewmembers returned to Earth: (1) either in a tent adjacent to the Soyuz landing site in Kazakhstan (approx.1 hr) or after transportation to the Karaganda airport (approx. 4 hr); (2) during a refueling stop in Scotland (approx.12 hr); and (3) upon return to NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) (approx.24 hr). We measured HR and arterial pressure (finger photoplethysmography) for 2 min while the crewmember was prone and throughout 3.5 min of quiet standing. Eleven crewmembers consented to participate; however, 2 felt too ill to start the test and 1 stopped 30 sec into the stand portion of the test. Of the remaining 8 crewmembers, 2 did not wear the Russian Kentavr compression garment. Because of inclement weather at the landing site, 5 crewmembers were flown by helicopter to the Karaganda airport before initial testing and received intravenous saline before completing the stand test. One of these crewmembers wore only the portion of the Russian Kentavr compression garment that covered the lower leg and thus lacked thigh and abdominal compression. All crewmembers continued wearing the Russian Kentavr compression garment during the second testing session in Scotland, but none wore it during testing at JSC. RESULTS: The mean Delta HR from the supine to standing position in the 8 crewmembers measured pre-flight or 60 days after return from long-duration space flight was 9.8 bpm. During the first few hours after landing from long-duration space flight, the mean Delta HR of the 6 crewmembers who wore the Russian Kentavr compression garment in Kazakhstan or Karaganda was +14 bpm and the change in mean arterial pressure (Delta MAP) was +0.8 mmHg, while the 2 crewmembers who did not wear the Russian Kentavr compression garment had a Delta HR of +38 bpm and a Delta MAP of +1.1 mmHg. In Scotland, 4 crewmembers wore the Russian Kentavr compression garment and had a Delta HR of +7.4 bpm while the 3 crewmembers who did not wear it had a Delta HR of +25.0 bpm. Seven crewmembers were tested upon return to JSC approx. 24 hr after landing, but none wore the Russian Kentavr compression garment and their Delta HR was 16.0 bpm. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first stand-test data to be collected from long-duration crewmembers during the first 24 hr of re-adaptation to gravity on Earth. The Delta HR measured in crewmembers who completed the stand-test while wearing Kentavr within the first approx.4 hours after returning to Earth was only slightly elevated from pre-flight Delta HR, while the few subjects who did not wear the Russian Kentavr compression garment had a much larger increase in HR in order to maintain arterial pressure throughout 3.5-min of standing. These data demonstrate the effectiveness of a compression garment in preventing large increases in HR during a 3.5 min stand test after long-duration space flight. However, the fact that three crewmembers were too ill to complete the test or was not able to complete 3.5 min of standing despite wearing the Russian Kentavr compression garment indicates that wearing a compression garment does not resolve all problems crewmembers face during the period of re-adaptation immediately after return to Earth's gravity.

Laurie, S. S.

Femoral Head Bone Loss Following Short and Long-Duration Spaceflight

Exposure to mechanical unloading during spaceflight is known to have significant effects on the musculoskeletal system. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. The 30-day BionM1 and the 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight and furthermore would result in significant tissue alterations. MicroCT analysis of BionM1 femurs revealed 31 decrease in bone volume ratio, a 14 decrease in trabecular thickness, and a 20 decrease in trabecular number in the femoral head of space-flown mice. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. However, mice from RR1 exhibited significant bone loss in the femoral head but did not exhibit the severe aging and disease-like phenotype observed during BionM1. This may be due to increased physical activity in the RH hardware. Immunohistochemical analysis of the epiphyseal plate and investigation of cellular proliferation and differentiation pathways within the marrow compartment and whole bone tissue is currently being conducted to determine alterations in stem cell-based tissue regeneration between these experiments. Our results show that the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight femurs from BionM1 indicate onset of an accelerated aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease shown by disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification. These effects are likely caused by a failure of stem cells to regenerate degraded tissues and may have significant implications for bone and cartilage health following extensive periods of mechanical unloading during long-duration spaceflight.

stem cells

Femoral Head Bone Loss Following Short and Long-Duration Spaceflight

Exposure to mechanical unloading during spaceflight is known to have significant effects on the musculoskeletal system. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. The 30-day BionM1 and the 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight and furthermore would result in significant tissue alterations. MicroCT analysis of BionM1 femurs revealed 31% decrease in bone volume ratio, a 14% decrease in trabecular thickness, and a 20% decrease in trabecular number in the femoral head of space-flown mice. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. However, mice from RR1 exhibited significant bone loss in the femoral head but did not exhibit the severe aging and disease-like phenotype observed during BionM1.This may be due to increased physical activity in the RH hardware. Immunohistochemical analysis of the epiphyseal plate and investigation of cellular proliferation and differentiation pathways within the marrow compartment and whole bone tissue is currently being conducted to determine alterations in stem cell-based tissue regeneration between these experiments. Our results show that the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight femurs from BionM1 indicate onset of an accelerated aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease shown by disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification. These effects are likely caused by a failure of stem cells to regenerate degraded tissues and may have significant implications for bone and cartilage health following extensive periods of mechanical unloading during long-duration spaceflight.

microgravity

Limits on Runoff Episode Duration for Early Mars: Integrating Lake Hydrology and Climate Models

Fluvio-lacustrine features on the martian surface attest to a climate that was radically different in the past. Since climate models have difficulty sustaining a liquid hydrosphere at the surface, multiple cycles of runoff episodes may have characterized the ancient Mars climate. A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these runoff-producing episodes? Here we use morphometric measurements from newly identified coupled lake systems, containing both an open- and a closed-basin lake (n=7). We combined hydrological balances with precipitation outputs from climate models, and found that breaching runoff episodes likely lasted 102−105yr; other episodes may have been shorter but could not be longer. Runoff episode durations are model-dependent and spatiallyvariable, and no27climate model scenario can satisfy a unique duration for all coupled systems. In the near future, these quantitative constraints on early Mars lake persistence may be tested through in situ observations from Perseverance rover. Plain Language Summary Ancient river and lake beds on the martian surface point to a climate that was radically different in the past, unlike the dry, cold desert that Mars is today. It experienced significant liquid water flowing across the surface (i.e., ‘runoff’) and hosted long-lived bodies of water (lakes and seas). However, scientists that generate models to simulate the ancient Mars climate have difficulty sustaining this proposed liquid water cycle at the surface. One possible hypothesis is that multiple cycles of individual liquid water episodes may have characterized the ancient martian climate (i.e. runoff episodes). A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these individual runoff-producing episodes? Here we use an approach that takes advantage of unique martian lake system, ‘coupled’ lake systems, and their shapes. We combined these measurements with precipitation results from previous climate models, and found that runoff episodes likely lasted 100-10,000 years, requiring a global climate mechanism that generated repeated cycles of this duration. Ultimately, our results can be tested through observations made by NASA’s Perseverance rover, shedding light on the uninterrupted duration of surface water on Mars and its potential to host life in the past.

Gaia Stucky de Quay

In-Space Transportation Sensitivity to Roundtrip Mission Duration and Mars Vicinity Stay Time

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate has been developing architecture concepts for human missions to Mars in alignment with the agency’s Moon-to-Mars Strategy & Objectives. One of the key components of a human Mars mission is the in-space transportation system that delivers crew and cargo to Mars vicinity and returns the crew safely back to Earth. The Mars Architecture Team within ESDMD’s Strategy and Architecture Office has been evaluating multiple in-space transportation options to satisfy this functional need. The first step of this evaluation is to understand key architectural drivers for in-space transportation systems. Lunar and Mars missions have unique challenges, and systems designed for one may not be directly applicable to the other as they have different energy and mission needs. In addition, the time and distance for a Mars mission will be drastically different from the historical and current programs, requiring a new paradigm for mission architects. This paper investigates the impact of mission duration on a variety of different transportation options. As mission duration decreases, the total energy required to perform a roundtrip Mars mission increases exponentially, significantly increasing the required Earth departure mass. Sensitivity analyses of various in-space transportation system concepts were shown in this paper to begin mapping out the in-space transportation trade space. Each of the transportation systems has its own strengths and weaknesses, especially in the context of the continuous mission duration and vicinity stay time trade space. Although mission duration and Mars vicinity stay time may be key architecture drivers from an in-space transportation perspective, the decision of acceptable mission duration cannot be made solely from this perspective. Mission duration also has tangible impacts to crew health and performance, as well as system reliability and other key architecture considerations. The integrated nature of the architecture decision road map will be the primary focus of the Mars Architecture Team in the coming analysis cycle. This in-space transportation analysis will serve as the first guidepost of this critical activity that will guide the Moon-to-Mars Architecture into the humans to Mars segment.

Mars

Extending the Duration of Crewed Stays on the Lunar Surface

NASA’s Artemis missions aim to return humans to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo Program. Unlike the Apollo missions, Artemis missions will take advantage of pre-emplaced assets on the lunar surface to support crewed exploration, science, and utilization. Although the initial Artemis surface missions are intended to keep crew on the lunar surface for durations ranging from several days to several weeks, crewed stays of longer periods may provide additional support toward NASA’s Moon to Mars Objectives, including long-term exploration and continuous human lunar presence. If mission durations are extended beyond the expected few weeks, the elements and concepts of operation for the lunar architecture will need to be capable of supporting that extension. This paper uses an integrated systems analysis perspective to examine the architectural considerations of extending the duration of human missions on the lunar surface. By identifying these key architectural considerations, this paper offers insight into how elements and operations might meet the demands of potential future mission concepts. This paper does not recommend changes to NASA’s lunar architecture, and it does not evaluate whether any mission concepts affect the relative satisfaction of the Moon to Mars Objectives. However, if crew do remain on the surface for progressively longer periods of time, the functions and capabilities provided by the assets supporting the crew may need to adjust to support the needs of those missions. The functions and capabilities identified as key to enable such extended duration missions include power generation and storage, logistics delivery, radiation mitigation, provision of medical and exercise capability, abort from the lunar surface, maintenance, and the provision of pressurized volume. For example, the medical capabilities available to the crew may become more extensive, and habitable elements may need to change to support longer crewed periods (and shorter quiescent periods). In some cases, these changes may be accomplished through alterations to use cases, operational changes, or the evolution of lunar surface elements, but in other cases, new elements may be preferable. By identifying key considerations for the functions and capabilities of notional lunar surface elements as the length of each crewed mission is extended from several days to continuous human presence on the Moon, this paper assesses how the elements of NASA’s lunar architecture might support the extension of mission durations. In addition, this analysis can help inform future evaluation of whether such extended duration missions improve NASA’s ability to address its Moon to Mars Objectives.

Garrett M. Carman

In-Space Transportation Sensitivity to Roundtrip Mission Duration and Mars Vicinity Stay Time

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate has been developing architecture concepts for human missions to Mars in alignment with the agency’s Moon-to-Mars Strategy & Objectives. One of the key components of a human Mars mission is the in-space transportation system that delivers crew and cargo to Mars vicinity and returns the crew safely back to Earth. The Mars Architecture Team within ESDMD’s Strategy and Architecture Office has been evaluating multiple in-space transportation options to satisfy this functional need. The first step of this evaluation is to understand key architectural drivers for in-space transportation systems. Lunar and Mars missions have unique challenges, and systems designed for one may not be directly applicable to the other as they have different energy and mission needs. In addition, the time and distance for a Mars mission will be drastically different from the historical and current programs, requiring a new paradigm for mission architects. This paper investigates the impact of mission duration on a variety of different transportation options. As mission duration decreases, the total energy required to perform a roundtrip Mars mission increases exponentially, significantly increasing the required Earth departure mass. Sensitivity analyses of various in-space transportation system concepts were shown in this paper to begin mapping out the in-space transportation trade space. Each of the transportation systems has its own strengths and weaknesses, especially in the context of the continuous mission duration and vicinity stay time trade space. Although mission duration and Mars vicinity stay time may be key architecture drivers from an in-space transportation perspective, the decision of acceptable mission duration cannot be made solely from this perspective. Mission duration also has tangible impacts to crew health and performance, as well as system reliability and other key architecture considerations. The integrated nature of the architecture decision road map will be the primary focus of the Mars Architecture Team in the coming analysis cycle. This in-space transportation analysis will serve as the first guidepost of this critical activity that will guide the Moon-to-Mars Architecture into the humans to Mars segment.

Mars

Using time reversal with long duration broadband noise signals to achieve high amplitude and a desired spectrum at a target location

Time Reversal (TR) is a signal processing technique that can be used to focus acoustic waves to a specific location in space, with most applications aiming to create an impulsive focus. Here, this study instead aims to focus long-duration noise signals using TR. This paper seeks to generate higher amplitude noise at a desired location over an existing method of broadcasting equalized noise. Additionally, this paper explores various characteristics associated with focusing long duration noise using TR. The dependence of the focal amplitude on the duration of the focused signal is explored as well as the implications of using multiple sources when focusing noise. The focal amplitude decreases with longer duration and then levels off when the duration exceeds a few seconds. Coherent addition of focused noise is observed if all loudspeakers have coherent noise signals convolved with their reversed impulse responses. Lastly, focusing noise with a desired spectrum is explored.

42 ENGINEERING

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung

Multi-device analysis of energy loss duration and pellet penetration with implications for shattered pellet injection in ITER

A robust disruption mitigation system (DMS) requires accurate characterization of key disruption timescales, one of the most notable being the thermal quench (TQ). Recent modeling of shattered pellet injection (SPI) into ITER plasmas, using JOREK and INDEX, suggests long TQ durations (6–10 ms) and slow cold front propagation due to the large plasma size. If validated, these predictions would have an impact on the desired pellet parameters and mitigation strategies for the ITER DMS. To resolve these questions, a database of SPI experiments from several small-to-large sized devices (J-TEXT, KSTAR, AUG, DIII-D, and JET) has been compiled under the auspices of the International Tokamak Physics Activity MHD, disruptions, and control topical group. Analysis of the energy loss duration (proxy for the TQ duration) with machine size is presented for both mixed neon/deuterium (Ne/D) SPI and pure deuterium (D) SPI. Several metrics for the energy loss onset (e.g. soft x-ray signal drop, I p dip, and radiation flash) were considered as the conventional metric, electron cyclotron emission, is often cut-off during SPI. Several scalings with different onset metrics showed an increase in energy loss duration with machine size. The energy loss duration was additionally shown to be a function of the ratio between the number of SPI neon atoms injected and the stored energy. Analysis of the pellet shard position relative to the cold front found that in larger devices, pellets are typically found inboard of the q = 2 surface at the energy loss onset. Lastly, the delay between the pellet shards hitting the q = 2 surface and the energy loss onset was additionally found to increase with machine size. This suggests that the pellet shards in large devices will penetrate faster and further than the cooling front.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Size, duration, and rate of growth of nocturnal lightning events appearing on space shuttle video tapes

An analysis of video tapes of nocturnal lightning events, taken aboard space shuttle flights STS-8, STS-9, STS-41D, and STS-51J, shows flashes with dimensions ranging from approximately 1 km by 1 km to 440 km by 110 km. Of particular interest are the flashes whose dimensions exceeded 100 km, as flashes of this size are seldom reported. In general, larger flashes were found to have longer durations, take longer to reach their maximum extent, and reach their maximum extent at a smaller percent of their total duration than smaller flashes. Sixty four percent of the flashes occurred with one to five other events appearing in the same video frame. These simultaneous events were an average of 60 km apart from each other. If a breakdown process is propagating between the simultaneous flashes, it would be travelling at a rate of 10(exp 5)m/sec. Plots of the area of an event over its duration show peaks in the area curve which may be indicative if lightning strokes. There was an average of 3.6 peaks per flash. In general, the longer the flash duration, the more peaks there were in the area curve. The area curves of the lightning events fall into one of five shape categories. It is suggested that the shape of the area curve may indicate whether an event is an intracloud or cloud to ground lightning flash. Some of the lightning events had a persistent bright spot. These events had an average duration which was greater than that of events without the bright spot. On average, the bright spot events had a maximum area which was larger than that of the flashes without the bright spot.

Breslawski, Christine

Diurnal variation of overdense meteor echo duration and ozone

The diurnal variation of the median duration of overdense sporadic radar meteor echoes is examined. The meteors recorded in August, December, and January by the Ondrejov meteor radar during the period 1958-1990 were used for the analysis. A maximum median echo duration 1-3 hours after the time of local sunrise in the meteor region confirms the already known sunrise effect. Minimum echo duration occurring at the time of sunset seems to be the most important point of diurnal variation of the echo duration, when ozone is no longer dissociated by solar UV radiation. The effect of diurnal changes of the echo duration should be considered when the mass distribution of meteor showers is analyzed.

Simek, Milos

Subjective response to sonic booms having different shapes, rise times, and durations

Two laboratory experiments were conducted to quantify the subjective response of people to simulated outdoor sonic booms having different pressure signatures. The specific objectives of the experiments were to compare subjective response to sonic booms when described in terms of 'loudness' and 'annoyance'; to determine the ability of various noise metrics to predict subjective response to sonic booms; to determine the effects on subjective response of rise time, duration, and level; and to compare the subjective response to 'N-wave' sonic boom signatures with the subjective response to 'minimized' sonic boom signatures. The experiments were conducted in a computer-controlled, man-rated sonic boom simulator capable of reproducing user-specified pressure signatures for a wide range of sonic boom parameters. One hundred and fifty sonic booms representing different combinations of two wave shapes, four rise times, seven durations, and three peak overpressures were presented to 36 test subjects in each experiment. The test subjects in the first experiment made judgments of 'loudness' while the test subjects in the second experiment judged 'annoyance.' Subjective response to sonic booms was the same whether expressed in terms of loudness or in terms of annoyance. Analyses of several different noise metrics indicated that A-weighted sound exposure level and Perceived Level were the best predictors of subjective response. Further analyses indicated that, of these two noise metrics, only Perceived Level completely accounted for the effects of wave shape, rise time, and peak overpressure. Neither metric fully accounted for the effect of duration. However, the magnitude of the duration effect was small over the very wide range of durations considered.

Mccurdy, David A.

Duration distributions of bright and dim BATSE gamma-ray bursts

We have measured the T(sub 90) and T(sub 50) durations of bright and dim gamma-ray bursts detected by the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory's (CGRO) Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BASTE). The T(sub 90) T(sub 50) duration is defined as the interval over which 5% (25%) to 95% (75%) of the burst counts accumulate. Out of 775 bursts observed by BATSE 159 bursts were analyzed; bursts with durations shorter than 1.5 s were excluded. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test yields a probability of 6 x 10(exp -5) that the T(sub 50) durations of the dim and bright samples are drawn from the same parent population. We find that the centroid and extent of the duration distribution for the dim sample are scaled by approximately a factor of 2 relative to those of the bright sample. The measured time-dilation factor is not sensitive to choice of energy band. These results are quantitatively consistent with previous tests for time dilation in a smaller sample of BATSE bursts. The sources of dimmer bursts, if cosmological, would lie at redshifts of order 2.

Norris, J. P.