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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Sketching for Enhanced Communication Efficiency in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) has revolutionized distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training without sharing local data. However, communication efficiency and privacy guarantees remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic sketching mechanism in FL, optimizing the trade-off between communication efficiency and model accuracy. By dynamically selecting the sketch matrix size, our approach adapts to the evolving characteristics of the data and the model, ensuring optimal performance across diverse scenarios. We leverage Bayesian optimization to systematically tune the sketch parameters, achieving an effective balance between resource efficiency and model performance. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset using a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture validate the proposed method's efficiency and scalability. Our dynamic sketching approach significantly outperforms fixed-size sketching techniques, achieving higher compression ratios (up to 62x) and providing better privacy guarantees while maintaining high model accuracy. These findings highlight the robustness and versatility of our approach and make it a valuable solution for privacy-preserving, communication-efficient federated learning.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under off-nominal conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace, demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground-structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV's predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV's trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Portia Banerjee↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under Off-nominal Conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV’s predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV’s trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Bayesian network↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

a priori uncertainty quantification of reacting turbulence closure models using Bayesian neural networks

While many physics-based closure model forms have been posited for the sub-filter scale (SFS) in large eddy simulation (LES), vast amounts of data available from direct numerical simulations (DNS) create opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques. Albeit flexible, data-driven models still depend on the dataset and the functional form of the model chosen. Increased adoption of such models requires reliable uncertainty estimates both in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. Here, in this work, we employ Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in a reacting flow model. In particular, we model the filtered progress variable scalar dissipation rate which plays a key role in the dynamics of turbulent premixed flames. We demonstrate that BNN models can provide unique insights about the structure of uncertainty of the data-driven closure models. We also propose a method for the incorporation of out-of-distribution information in a BNN, which can be used for out-of-distribution query detection. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated by a priori evaluation on a dataset consisting of a variety of flame conditions and fuels.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of bubble size dynamics applied to CO 2 gas fermenters

To accelerate the scale-up of gaseous CO 2 fermentation reactors, computational models need to predict gas-to-liquid mass transfer which requires capturing the bubble size dynamics, i.e. bubble breakup and coalescence. However, the applicability of existing models beyond air–water mixtures remains to be established. Here, an inverse modeling approach, accelerated with a neural network surrogate, calibrates the breakup and coalescence closure models, that are used in class methods for population balance modeling (PBM). The calibration is performed based on experimental results obtained in a CO 2 -air–water-coflowing bubble column reactor. Bayesian inference is used to account for noise in the experimental dataset and bias in the simulation results. To accurately capture gas holdup and interphase mass transfer, the results show that the breakage rate needs to be increased by one order of magnitude. In conclusion, the inferred model parameters are then used on a separate configuration and shown to also improve bubble size distribution predictions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Bayesian Framework for Landing Site Selection During Autonomous Spacecraft Descent

The success of a landed space exploration mission depends largely on the final landing site. Factors influencing site selection include safety, fuel-consumption, and scientific return. This paper addresses the problem of selecting the best available landing site based on these factors in real-time during autonomous spacecraft descent onto a planetary surface. The problem is modeled probabilistically using Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs provide a means of representing the causal relationships between variables that impact the quality of a landing site. The final landing site is determined via probabilistic reasoning based on terrain safety derived from on-board sensors, available fuel based on spacecraft descent dynamics, and regions of interest defined by mission scientists.

entry, descent, landing (EDL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Online LIBS–ML Framework for Dynamic Characterization of Heterogeneous Waste-Derived Gasification Feedstocks

LIBS−ML framework for real time feedstock characterization during continuous conveyor transport Heterogeneous waste derived feedstocks (e.g., waste coal, biomass and blends) introduce rapid variability in heating value and ash chemistry that affect gasifier operation, yet conventional laboratory characterization techniques are too slow to support proactive control. To address this gap, this study reports on an online, in situ, dynamic characterization framework that couple’s laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) with leakage safe machine learning (ML) regression to deliver real time, decision quality predictions of gasifier relevant properties. A controlled sample matrix spanning two different waste coals, two different biomasses, and engineered blends under two particle size conditions were constructed and benchmarked using standardized laboratory analyses for proximate/ultimate properties and ash composition. LIBS spectra were acquired dynamically as material flowed on a conveyor belt, using high energy 1064 nm laser ablation and shot averaging to improve repeatability and precision. Supervised regression models (multi layer perceptron (MLP) /artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)) and an optimized weighted ensemble were trained on emission line feature sets using nested cross validation with Bayesian hyperparameter tuning and validated against an independent hold out set. The proposed LIBS−ML workflow achieves near laboratory predictive fidelity across parametric targets (including higher heating value (HHV), ash content, fixed carbon, sulfur, major ash forming oxides, and initial deformation temperature (IDT)), with the weighted ensemble providing a robust default predictor under dynamic measurement conditions. These results demonstrate a practical pathway for real time feedstock characterization that can enable feedforward adjustments and more resilient gasifier operation for variable quality waste derived fuels.

Biomass↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging prior mean models for faster Bayesian optimization of particle accelerators

Tuning particle accelerators is a challenging and time-consuming task that can be automated and carried out efficiently using suitable optimization algorithms, such as model-based Bayesian optimization techniques. One of the major advantages of Bayesian algorithms is the ability to incorporate prior information about beam physics and historical behavior into the model used to make control decisions. In this work, we examine incorporating prior accelerator physics information into Bayesian optimization algorithms by utilizing fast executing, neural network models trained on simulated or historical datasets as prior mean functions in Gaussian process models. We show that in ideal cases, this technique substantially increases convergence speed to optimal solutions in high-dimensional tuning parameter spaces. Additionally, we demonstrate that even in non-ideal cases, where prior models of beam dynamics do not exactly match experimental conditions, the use of this technique can still enhance convergence speed. Finally, we demonstrate how these methods can be used to improve optimization in practical applications, such as transferring information gained from beam dynamics simulations to online control of the LCLS injector, and transferring knowledge gained from experimental measurements across different operating modes, such as accelerating different ion species at the ATLAS heavy ion accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
NASA NTRS2017

Real-Time Risk Assessment Framework for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM)

The new Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Small Unmanned Aircraft rule (Part 107) marks the first national regulations for commercial operation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) under 55 pounds within the National Airspace System (NAS). Although sUAS flights may not be performed beyond visual line-of-sight or over non- participant structures and people, safety of sUAS operations must still be maintained and tracked at all times. Moreover, future safety-critical operation of sUAS (e.g., for package delivery) are already being conceived and tested. NASA's Unmanned Aircraft System Trac Management (UTM) concept aims to facilitate the safe use of low-altitude airspace for sUAS operations. This paper introduces the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) which was developed to provide real-time safety evaluation and tracking capability within the UTM concept. The URAF uses Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to propagate off -nominal condition probabilities based on real-time component failure indicators. This information is then used to assess the risk to people on the ground by calculating the potential impact area and the effects of the impact. The visual representation of the expected area of impact and the nominal risk level can assist operators and controllers with dynamic trajectory planning and execution. The URAF was applied to a case study to illustrate the concept.

Ancel, Ersin↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise in the Northeastern United States - Approach and Methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

terrain↗
DOE OSTI2024

PINN surrogate of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference, Part I: Implementation and multi-fidelity hierarchies for the single-particle model

To plan and optimize energy storage demands that account for Li-ion battery aging dynamics, techniques need to be developed to diagnose battery internal states accurately and rapidly. Here, this study seeks to reduce the computational resources needed to determine a battery's internal states by replacing physics-based Li-ion battery models - such as the single-particle model (SPM) and the pseudo-2D (P2D) model - with a physics-informed neural network (PINN) surrogate. The surrogate model makes high-throughput techniques, such as Bayesian calibration, tractable to determine battery internal parameters from voltage responses. This manuscript is the first of a two-part series that introduces PINN surrogates of Li-ion battery models for parameter inference (i.e., state-of-health diagnostics). In this first part, a method is presented for constructing a PINN surrogate of the SPM. A multi-fidelity hierarchical training, where several neural nets are trained with multiple physics-loss fidelities is shown to significantly improve the surrogate accuracy when only training on the governing equation residuals. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/PINNSTRIPES). The techniques used to develop a PINN surrogate of the SPM are extended in Part II for the PINN surrogate for the P2D battery model, and explore the Bayesian calibration capabilities of both surrogates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a data-driven model of hadronization using normalizing flows

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing flows, termed MAGIC, that improves the agreement between simulated and experimental distributions of high-level (macroscopic) observables by adjusting single-emission (microscopic) dynamics. Our results constitute an important step toward realizing a machine-learning based model of hadronization that utilizes experimental data during training. Finally, we demonstrate how a Bayesian extension to this normalizing-flow architecture can be used to provide analysis of statistical and modeling uncertainties on the generated observable distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

3D Representation of UAV-obstacle Collision Risk Under Off-nominal Conditions

Safe operations of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace with beyond visual line-of-sight (BVLOS) flights demand robust risk monitoring of airspace as well as of people and property on ground. One of the safety critical factors for UAV flights is the risk of collision with static and dynamic obstacles in proximity to its flight path. This paper presents a detailed formulation of risk of obstacle collision incorporating the effects of off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts. The risk is represented in terms of a matrix with rows corresponding to the likelihood of occurrence of collision and columns representing severity of collision to the vehicle and surrounding structures. Risk likelihood is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that compiles knowledge from related Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEAs) and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to determine the probability of collision based on on-board sensor measurements indicative of vehicle health and controllability. Risk severity is computed utilizing a point-mass 3D kinematic model of the vehicle in presence of wind. The proposed risk factor is demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions, level of controllability and obstacle measurement noise on the risk factor is demonstrated. The proposed approach enables risk-informed decision making for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events in autonomous systems.

risk analysis↗
NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗