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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Important powertrain dynamics for developing models for control of connected and automated electrified vehicles

Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAV) technology presents significant opportunities for energy saving in the transportation sector. CAV technology forecasts vehicle and powertrain power needs under various terrain, ambient, and traffic conditions. Integration of the CAV technology in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) provides the opportunity for optimal vehicle operation. Indeed, Hybrid Electric Vehicle powertrains present high degrees of flexibility and possibility for choosing optimum powertrain modes based on the predicted traction power needs. In modeling complex CAV powertrain dynamics, the modeler needs to consider short-time scale powertrain dynamics, such as engine transients, and hysteresis of mode-switching for a multi-mode HEV. Therefore, the powertrain dynamics essential for developing powertrain controllers for a class of connected HEVs is presented. To this end, control-oriented powertrain dynamic models for a test vehicle consisting of full electric, hybrid, and conventional engine operating modes are developed. The resulting powertrain model can forecast vehicle traction torque and energy consumption for the specified prediction horizon of the test vehicle. The model considers different operating modes and associated energy penalty terms for mode switching. Thus, the vehicle controller can determine the optimum powertrain mode, torque, and speed for forecasted vehicle operation via utilizing connectivity data. The powertrain model is validated against the experimental data and shows prediction error of less than 5% for predicting vehicle energy consumption. The model is used to create energy penalty maps that can be used for CAV control, for example fuel penalty map for engine torque changes (10–40 Nm) at each engine speed. The results of model-based optimization show optimum switching delays ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 s to avoid hysteresis in mode switching.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

How do axisymmetric black holes grow monopole and dipole hair?

Here, we study the dynamical formation of scalar monopole and dipole hair in scalar Gauss-Bonnet theory and dynamical Chern-Simons theory. We prove that the spherically symmetric mode of the dipole hair is completely determined by the product of the mass of the spacetime and the value of the monopole hair. We then show that the dynamics of the ℓ = 1 mode of the dipole hair is intimately tied to the appearance of the event horizon during axisymmetric collapse, which results in the radiation of certain modes that could have been divergent in the future of the collapse. We confirm these analytical predictions by simulating the gravitational collapse of a rapidly rotating neutron star in the decoupling limit, both in scalar Gauss-Bonnet and dynamical Chern-Simons theory. Our results, combined with those provide a clear physical picture of the dynamics of scalar monopole and dipole radiation in axisymmetric and spherical gravitational collapse in these theories.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for robust quantum state preparation

A critical engineering challenge in quantum technology is the accurate control of quantum dynamics. Model-based methods for optimal control have been shown to be highly effective when theory and experiment closely match. Consequently, realizing high-fidelity quantum processes with model-based control requires careful device characterization. In quantum processors based on cold atoms, the Hamiltonian can be well-characterized. For superconducting qubits operating at milli-Kelvin temperatures, the Hamiltonian is not as well-characterized. Unaccounted for physics (i.e., mode discrepancy), coherent disturbances, and increased noise compromise traditional model-based control. This work introduces model predictive control (MPC) for quantum control applications. MPC is a closed-loop optimization framework that (i) inherits a natural degree of disturbance rejection by incorporating measurement feedback, (ii) utilizes finite-horizon model-based optimizations to control complex multi-input, multi-output dynamical systems under state and input constraints, and (iii) is flexible enough to develop synergistically alongside other modern control strategies. We show how MPC can be used to generate practical optimized control sequences in representative examples of quantum state preparation. Specifically, we demonstrate for a qubit, a weakly-anharmonic qubit, and a system undergoing crosstalk, that MPC can realize successful model-based control even when the model is inadequate. These examples showcase why MPC is an important addition to the quantum engineering control suite.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning-based CO 2 concentration prediction: Application to indoor air quality control using demand-controlled ventilation

There have been increasing concerns over the air quality inside buildings as high levels of bio-effluents can cause nausea, dizziness, headaches, and fatigue to the people working in those spaces. First published in 2004 as Standard 62.1, ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2019 requires highly occupied spaces to implement heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) that can dilute contaminants produced by occupants. In this regard, occupant-centric ventilation control has been regarded as an effective practice to maintain a satisfactory indoor air quality (IAQ) when dealing with highly variable occupancy environments. However, few established models in current literature and practice consider dynamic occupancy behavior and adaptive IAQ control. To address this gap, a dynamic indoor CO2 model is constructed using machine learning algorithms to forecast CO2concentrations across a range of forecasting horizons. Herein, we tuned and compared six state-of-the-algorithms—including Support Vector Machine, Ada Boost, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and Multilayer Perceptron. The algorithms’ performances are validated using CO 2 and historical meteorological data collected from a campus classroom with a variable occupancy rate. Simulation results showed that Multilayer Perceptron can strongly predict the volatile CO 2 behavior and also outperforms other algorithms in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, a control strategy capable of modeling and detecting dynamic patterns of CO 2 level is utilized to modulate the ventilation rate in real-time and also reduce the energy consumption. The proposed controller reduced the HVAC fan’s energy consumption by 51.4% and provide ventilation as needed per the ASHRAE standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural operator transformers capture bifurcating drift-wave turbulence in fusion plasma simulations

Self-consistent modeling of turbulence-driven transport is critical for optimizing confinement in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as tokamaks and stellarators. In particular, capturing the long-term co-evolution of turbulence, flow, and background plasma profiles remains computationally challenging. Direct numerical simulation of these multiscale, highly nonlinear processes is often demanding and impractical for real-time control or design optimization. To address this bottleneck, we investigate transformer-based neural operator partial differential equation surrogates for emulating the dynamics of drift-wave turbulence bifurcation mediated by zonal flows, using the modified Hasegawa–Wakatani (MHW) model as a prototypical system. We find that the finetuned neural operator model has excellent performance in capturing the multi-spatiotemporal-scales of MHW turbulence bifurcation and is robust to testing on rare and out-of-distribution dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that a single unified model accurately predicts both quasi-steady-state turbulence and a wide range of dynamical transition processes, such as nonlinear saturation, spontaneous suppression of turbulence, and the emergence of macroscopic zonal flows, over time horizons vastly exceeding the local turbulence correlation time. This computationally efficient approach establishes a strong foundation for fast, AI-based modeling of complex, multiscale phenomena in magnetized fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-Time Ecodriving Control in Electrified Connected and Autonomous Vehicles Using Approximate Dynamic Programing

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), particularly those with a hybrid electric powertrain, have the potential to significantly improve vehicle energy savings in real-world driving conditions. In particular, the ecodriving problem seeks to design optimal speed and power usage profiles based on available information from connectivity and advanced mapping features to minimize the fuel consumption over an itinerary. This paper presents a hierarchical multilayer model predictive control (MPC) approach for improving the fuel economy of a 48 V mild-hybrid powertrain in a connected vehicle environment. Approximate dynamic programing (DP) is used to solve the receding horizon optimal control problem, whose terminal cost is approximated with the base policy obtained from the long-term optimization. The controller was tested virtually (with deterministic and Monte Carlo simulation) across multiple real-world routes, demonstrating energy savings of more than 20%. The controller was then deployed on a test vehicle equipped with a rapid prototyping embedded controller. In-vehicle testing confirm the energy savings obtained in simulation and demonstrate the real-time ability of the controller.

Automation & Control Systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-time integration of parametric evolution equations with physics-informed DeepONets

Ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) play a paramount role in analyzing and simulating complex dynamic processes across all corners of science and engineering. In recent years machine learning tools are aspiring to introduce new effective ways of simulating such equations, however existing approaches are not able to reliably return stable and accurate predictions across long temporal horizons. We aim to address this challenge by introducing an effective framework for learning evolution operators that map random initial conditions to associated ODE/PDE solutions within a short time interval. Such operators can be parametrized by deep neural networks that are trained in an entirely self-supervised manner without requiring one to generate any paired input-output observations. Global long-time predictions across a range of initial conditions can be then obtained by iteratively evaluating the trained model using each prediction as the initial condition for the next evaluation step. Here, this introduces a new approach to temporal domain decomposition that is shown to be effective in performing accurate long-time simulations for a wide range of parametric ODE and PDE systems, from wave propagation, to reaction-diffusion dynamics and stiff chemical kinetics, introducing a new way of rapidly emulating non-equilibrium processes in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2024

On Building Predictive Digital Twin Incorporating Wave Predicting Capabilities: Case Study on UMaine Experimental Campaign - FOCAL

The response of floating wind turbines (FWT) are susceptible to stochastic wave variations. For the optimal operation of FWT, a comprehensive understanding of the phaseresolved wave dynamics and the consequential system response is crucial for real-time monitoring and control. A multi-variate, multi-step, long short term memory (MLSTM), a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) is used to capture complex system dynamics for real-time application. Results indicate that the integration of a wave prediction-reconstruction (WRP) model substantially enhances prediction accuracy by 50% on average relative to the baseline model. The improvement is consistent across various wave extremity and prediction horizons, thereby significantly broadening the scope for timely and precise predictive capabilities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building thermal dynamics modeling with deep transfer learning using a large residential smart thermostat dataset

Understanding thermal dynamics and obtaining the computational model of residential buildings enable its scaled application in energy retrofits, control optimization and decarbonization. In this paper, we present a deep learning approach to model building thermal dynamics with smart thermostat data collected from residential buildings, with the goal to investigate model generalizability. In the first stage, we developed and compared different Deep Learning architectures including Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models and CNN-LSTM to predict indoor air temperature in a multi-step time horizon. In the second stage, we implemented a Transfer Learning (TL) process, which aims to improve the prediction performance on a new set of buildings (targets), exploiting the knowledge of related or similar buildings (sources). Different TL strategies and source model identification methods were investigated. The study showed that the CNN-LSTM performed the best among the architectures compared, with an average Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.26 °C for one-hour-ahead (twelve 5-min future steps) predictions. Furthermore, the results showed that freezing the LSTM layer and fine-tuning the other layers of the CNN-LSTM achieved the best performance among four TL strategies, which further improved the performance with respect to a machine learning approach by 10%, and proving the effectiveness and generalizability of the proposed approach. A comparison of three different source model identification methods showed that randomly selecting source models constrained by similar building characteristics can provide good TL performance while retaining simplicity comparing with other quantitative source identification methods.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Optimal Performance of Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Here, this article presents a regret analysis for stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in linear systems with quadratic performance index and additive and multiplicative uncertainties. Under a finite support assumption, the problem can be cast as a finite-dimensional quadratic program, but the problem becomes quickly intractable as the problem size grows exponentially in the horizon length. SMPC aims to compute approximate solutions by solving a sequence of problems with truncated prediction horizons and committing the solution in a receding-horizon fashion. Although this approach is widely used in practice, its performance relative to the optimal solution is not well understood. This article reports for the first time a rigorous near-optimal performance guarantee of SMPC: under stabilizability and detectability conditions, the regret of SMPC is exponentially small in the prediction horizon length, allowing SMPC to achieve near-optimal performance at a substantially reduced computational expense.

93E20, 93B45↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Switching Frequency Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) for DFIG

An enhanced Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) strategy with a two-step prediction horizon for a Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is the focus of this paper. The DFIG and RL filter's discrete-time model is used in the proposed control scheme for a two-step prediction horizon of rotor and filter currents for the converter's eight possible switching states. Afterward, the control algorithm selects the ideal switching state, which minimizes currents' objective function. The proposed control scheme does not require a modulation stage for internal controllers. We use Lagrange extrapolations to predict the dynamic changes in currents. The switching frequency reduction is achieved by integrating an optimization constraint in the algorithm's cost function. Furthermore, the Total Harmonic Distortion level of currents is kept below 5%, according to IEEE Std 519-14. Obtained results reveal that the switching frequency of the DFIG converters is considerably reduced without losing control; it is reduced by 13.89KHz for the Grid Side Converter (GSC) and by 1.78KHz for the Rotor Side Converter (RSC).

doubly-fed induction generator↗
DOE OSTI2021

Network Based Estimation of Wind Farm Power and Velocity Data Under Changing Wind Direction

This paper describes an estimation algorithm for velocity and power output signals in a wind farm under changing wind direction. A graph-theoretic definition describes the wind farm as a collection of nodes (turbines) and time-varying weighted edges (inter-turbine wake propagation) that change as a function of incoming wind direction. The velocity at each turbine is determined through a discrete input-output model. Changes in wind direction serve as the input and the output is defined in terms of a time-varying weighted adjacency matrix that depends on the time-delay of information propagation between turbines. These delays, which are defined in terms of the advection speed of the wind and the distance between the turbines, capture the delayed effect of wind direction changes on the inter-connectivity of the graph as the wind conditions at the farm inlet propagate through the turbine array. An event-based update framework is employed to capture time-dependent topology changes due to shifts in wind direction. Simulation results for dynamically changing wind inlet directions to a circular wind farm are compared to predictions from both the static and dynamic versions of the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) model. The approach is shown to enable real-time tracking of dynamic changes to wind farm power output within a framework that can be easily integrated into real-time, horizon-based, control strategies that typically do not account for wind direction changes.

distributed↗
DOE OSTI2023

How good are learning-based control v.s. model-based control for load shifting? Investigations on a single zone building energy system

Both model predictive control (MPC) and deep reinforcement learning control (DRL) have been presented as a way to approximate the true optimality of a dynamic programming problem, and these two have shown significant operational cost saving potentials for building energy systems. Furthermore, there is still a lack of in-depth quantitative studies on their approximation levels to the true optimality, especially in the building energy domain. To fill in the gap, this paper provides a numerical framework that enables the evaluation of the optimality levels of different controllers for building energy systems. This framework is then used to comprehensively compare the optimal control performance of both MPC and DRL controllers with given computation budgets for a single zone fan coil unit system. Note the optimality is estimated based on a user-specific selection of trade-off weights among energy costs, thermal comfort and control slew rates. Compared with the best optimality we can find through expensive optimization simulations, the best DRL agent can maximally approximate the optimality by 96.54%, which outperforms the best MPC whose optimality level is 90.11%. However, due to the stochasticity, the DRL agent is only expected to approximate the optimality by 90.42%, which is almost equivalent to the best MPC. Except for Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), all DRL agents can have a better approximation to the optimality than the best MPC, and are expected to have better approximation than the MPC with a prediction horizon of 32 steps (15 min per step). In terms of reducing energy cost and thermal discomfort, MPC can outperform the rule-based control (RBC) by 18.47%–25.44%. DRL can be expected to outperform RBC by 18.95%–25.65% ,and the best DRL control policy can outperform RBC by 20.29%–29.72%. Although the comparison of the optimality level is performed in a perfect setting, e.g., MPC assumes perfect models, and DRL assumes a perfect offline training process and online deployment process, this can shed insight on their capabilities of approximating to the original dynamic programming problem.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗