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Results for “dynamic state prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Exploiting Machine Learning to Efficiently Predict Multidimensional Optical Spectra in Complex Environments

The excited-state dynamics of chromophores in complex environments determine a range of vital biological and energy capture processes. Time-resolved, multidimensional optical spectroscopies provide a key tool to investigate these processes. Although theory has the potential to decode these spectra in terms of the electronic and atomistic dynamics, the need for large numbers of excited-state electronic structure calculations severely limits first-principles predictions of multidimensional optical spectra for chromophores in the condensed phase. In this work, we leverage the locality of chromophore excitations to develop machine learning models to predict the excited-state energy gap of chromophores in complex environments for efficiently constructing linear and multidimensional optical spectra. By analyzing the performance of these models, which span a hierarchy of physical approximations, across a range of chromophore–environment interaction strengths, we provide strategies for the construction of machine learning models that greatly accelerate the calculation of multidimensional optical spectra from first principles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interplay of Gas-phase Reactions and Multi-phase Processes on Phase State and Growth Dynamics of Secondary Organic Aerosols

The formation, growth and evolution of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are complex multiphase chemical processes, which represent one of the most challenging and demanding problems in research on atmospheric aerosol processes. The research goal of this project was to advance the fundamental understanding of the interplay between gas-phase chemistry and multiphase processes on phase state and growth dynamics of SOA for better predictivity of aerosol effects on climate and air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subnetwork representation learning for discovering network biomarkers in predicting lymph node metastasis in early oral cancer

Cervical lymph node metastasis is the leading cause of poor prognosis in oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma and also occurs in the early stages. The current clinical diagnosis depends on a physical examination that is not enough to determine whether micrometastasis remains. The transcriptome profiling technique has shown great potential for predicting micrometastasis by capturing the dynamic activation state of genes. However, there are several technical challenges in using transcriptome data to model patient conditions: (1) An Insufficient number of samples compared to the number of genes, (2) Complex dependence between genes that govern the cancer phenotype, and (3) Heterogeneity between patients between cohorts that differ geographically and racially. We developed a computational framework to learn the subnetwork representation of the transcriptome to discover network biomarkers and determine the potential of metastasis in early oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma. Our method achieved high accuracy in predicting the potential of metastasis in two geographically and racially different groups of patients. The robustness of the model and the reproducibility of the discovered network biomarkers show great potential as a tool to diagnose lymph node metastasis in early oral cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Performance Comparison and Prediction based on Distribution-level Phasor Measurement Units

This paper introduces a new distribution level Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) which adopts advanced hardware components and structure. The hardware parameters from the new PMU and the existing PMU are used to build a simulation model to predict the PMU performance. Therefore, a real-world testbench is built and four distribution level PMUs are tested under the steady-state and dynamic tests. The quantitative experiment result confirms the prediction model which could guide future PMU design, and also verifies the accuracy of the new PMU on the synchrophasor and frequency measurements in multiple scenarios.

Wu, Yuru↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio electron dynamics in high electric fields: Accurate prediction of velocity-field curves

Electron dynamics in external electric fields governs the behavior of solid-state electronic devices. First-principles calculations enable precise predictions of charge transport in low electric fields. However, studies of high-field electron dynamics remain elusive due to a lack of accurate and broadly applicable methods. In this work, we develop an efficient approach to solve the real-time Boltzmann transport equation with both the electric field term and ab initio electron-phonon collisions. These simulations provide field-dependent electronic distributions in the time domain, allowing us to investigate both transient and steady-state transport in electric fields ranging from low to high (> 10 kV/cm). The broad capabilities of our approach are shown by computing nonequilibrium electron occupations and velocity-field curves in Si, GaAs, and graphene, obtaining results in quantitative agreement with experiment. Our approach sheds light on microscopic details of transport in high electric fields, including the dominant scattering mechanisms and valley occupation dynamics. Our results demonstrate quantitatively accurate calculations of electron dynamics in low to high electric fields, with broad application to power and micro-electronics, optoelectronics, and sensing.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled Multiphysics Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Automotive Crashworthiness Applications

Considerable advances have been made in battery safety models, but achieving predictive accuracy across a wide range of conditions continues to be challenging. Interactions between dynamically evolving mechanical, electrical, and thermal state variables make model prediction difficult during mechanical abuse scenarios. In this study, we develop a physics-based modeling approach that allows for choosing between different mechanical and electrochemical models depending on the required level of analysis. We demonstrate the use of this approach to connect cell-level abuse response to electrode-level and particle-level transport phenomena. A pseudo-two-dimensional model and simplified single-particle models are calibrated to electrical-thermal cycling data and applied to mechanically induced short-circuit scenarios to understand how the choice of electrochemical model affects the model prediction under abuse scenarios. These models are implemented using user-defined subroutines on ls-dyna finite element software and can be coupled with existing automotive crash safety models.

analysis and design of components↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-Situ Sensing and Dynamics Predictions for Electrothermally-Actuated Soft Robot Limbs

Untethered soft robots that locomote using electrothermally-responsive materials like shape memory alloy (SMA) face challenging design constraints for sensing actuator states. At the same time, modeling of actuator behaviors faces steep challenges, even with available sensor data, due to complex electrical-thermal-mechanical interactions and hysteresis. This article proposes a framework for in-situ sensing and dynamics modeling of actuator states, particularly temperature of SMA wires, which is used to predict robot motions. A planar soft limb is developed, actuated by a pair of SMA coils, that includes compact and robust sensors for temperature and angular deflection. Data from these sensors are used to train a neural network-based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) architecture to model both unidirectional (single SMA) and bidirectional (both SMAs) motion. Predictions from the model demonstrate that data from the temperature sensor, combined with control inputs, allow for dynamics predictions over extraordinarily long open-loop timescales (10 min) with little drift. Prediction errors are on the order of the soft deflection sensor’s accuracy. This architecture allows for compact designs of electrothermally-actuated soft robots that include sensing sufficient for motion predictions, helping to bring these robots into practical application.

Sabelhaus, Andrew P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural operator transformers capture bifurcating drift-wave turbulence in fusion plasma simulations

Self-consistent modeling of turbulence-driven transport is critical for optimizing confinement in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as tokamaks and stellarators. In particular, capturing the long-term co-evolution of turbulence, flow, and background plasma profiles remains computationally challenging. Direct numerical simulation of these multiscale, highly nonlinear processes is often demanding and impractical for real-time control or design optimization. To address this bottleneck, we investigate transformer-based neural operator partial differential equation surrogates for emulating the dynamics of drift-wave turbulence bifurcation mediated by zonal flows, using the modified Hasegawa–Wakatani (MHW) model as a prototypical system. We find that the finetuned neural operator model has excellent performance in capturing the multi-spatiotemporal-scales of MHW turbulence bifurcation and is robust to testing on rare and out-of-distribution dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that a single unified model accurately predicts both quasi-steady-state turbulence and a wide range of dynamical transition processes, such as nonlinear saturation, spontaneous suppression of turbulence, and the emergence of macroscopic zonal flows, over time horizons vastly exceeding the local turbulence correlation time. This computationally efficient approach establishes a strong foundation for fast, AI-based modeling of complex, multiscale phenomena in magnetized fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A graph neural network-state predictive information bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) approach for learning molecular thermodynamics and kinetics

Molecular dynamics simulations offer detailed insights into atomic motions but face timescale limitations. Enhanced sampling methods have addressed these challenges but even with machine learning, they often rely on pre-selected expert-based features. Here, in this work, we present a Graph Neural Network-State Predictive Information Bottleneck (GNN-SPIB) framework, which combines graph neural networks and the state predictive information bottleneck to automatically learn low-dimensional representations directly from atomic coordinates. Tested on three benchmark systems, our approach predicts essential structural, thermodynamic and kinetic information for slow processes, demonstrating robustness across diverse systems. The method shows promise for complex systems, enabling effective enhanced sampling without requiring pre-defined reaction coordinates or input features.

Zou, Ziyue↗
DOE OSTI2025

First principles free energy model with dynamic magnetism for δ -plutonium

We present an ab initio free energy model derived from a fully relativistic density functional theory (DFT) electronic structure with dynamic magnetism for δ -plutonium (face-centered cubic, fcc). The DFT model is extended with orbital-orbital interaction in a parameter free orbital polarization (OP) mechanism consistent with previous modeling of plutonium. Gibbs free energy is built from components associated with the temperature dependence of the electronic structure and the corresponding electronic entropy, lattice vibrations within an anharmonic lattice dynamics model, and dynamical fluctuations of the magnetization density, i.e. magnetic fluctuations. The fluctuation model consists of transverse and longitudinal modes driven by temperature induced excitations of the DFT + OP electronic structure. The ab initio model thus incorporates fluctuating states beyond the electronic ground state. Thanks to the dynamic magnetism, the theory predicts excellent thermodynamic properties and a Gibbs free energy in accord with CALPHAD and semi-empirical modeling developed from the thermodynamic observables. The magnetic fluctuations further explain anomalous behaviors of the thermal expansion in plutonium. Specifically, a thermal expansion for the δ -plutonium system turning from positive to negative at temperatures above room temperature, a tendency for gallium to reduce and remove the negative thermal expansion depending on composition, and a positive thermal expansion for the high temperature ϵ phase.

dynamic↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics

This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic mode decomposition of nonequilibrium electron-phonon dynamics: accelerating the first-principles real-time Boltzmann equation

Abstract Nonequilibrium dynamics governed by electron–phonon ( e -ph) interactions plays a key role in electronic devices and spectroscopies and is central to understanding electronic excitations in materials. The real-time Boltzmann transport equation (rt-BTE) with collision processes computed from first principles can describe the coupled dynamics of electrons and atomic vibrations (phonons). Yet, a bottleneck of these simulations is the calculation of e –ph scattering integrals on dense momentum grids at each time step. Here we show a data-driven approach based on dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) that can accelerate the time propagation of the rt-BTE and identify dominant electronic processes. We apply this approach to two case studies, high-field charge transport and ultrafast excited electron relaxation. In both cases, simulating only a short time window of ~10% of the dynamics suffices to predict the dynamics from initial excitation to steady state using DMD extrapolation. Analysis of the momentum-space modes extracted from DMD sheds light on the microscopic mechanisms governing electron relaxation to a steady state or equilibrium. The combination of accuracy and efficiency makes our DMD-based method a valuable tool for investigating ultrafast dynamics in a wide range of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Best of both worlds: Enforcing detailed balance in machine learning models of transition rates

The slow microstructural evolution of materials often plays a key role in determining material properties. When the unit steps of the evolution process are slow, direct simulation approaches such as molecular dynamics become prohibitive and Kinetic Monte-Carlo (kMC) algorithms, where the state-to-state evolution of the system is represented in terms of a continuous-time Markov chain, are instead frequently relied upon to efficiently predict long-time evolution. The accuracy of kMC simulations however relies on the complete and accurate knowledge of reaction pathways and corresponding kinetics. This requirement becomes extremely stringent in complex systems such as concentrated alloys where the astronomical number of local atomic configurations makes the a priori tabulation of all possible transitions impractical. Machine learning models of transition kinetics have been used to mitigate this problem by enabling the efficient on-the-fly prediction of kinetic parameters. While conventional KMC methods based on transition state theory naturally yield reversible dynamics that exactly obey the detailed balance criterion, providing strong guarantees on the properties of the stationary distribution, many recently-proposed ML-based approaches to barrier predictions provide no such guarantees. In this study, we derive conditions under which physics-informed ML architectures exactly enforce the detailed balance condition by construction, even when relying on non-extensive descriptions of states in terms of local environments around mobile defects. In conclusion, using the diffusion of a vacancy in a concentrated alloy as an example, we show that such ML architectures also exhibit superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy, demonstrating that the imposition of physical constraints can facilitate the accurate learning of barriers at no increase in computational cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-constrained deep learning of nonlinear normal modes of spatiotemporal fluid flow dynamics

In this study, we present a physics-constrained deep learning method to discover and visualize from data the invariant nonlinear normal modes (NNMs) which contain the spatiotemporal dynamics of the fluid flow potentially containing strong nonlinearity. Specifically, we develop a NNM-physics-constrained convolutional autoencoder (NNM-CNN-AE) integrated with a multi-temporal-step dynamics prediction block to learn the nonlinear modal transformation, the NNMs containing the spatiotemporal dynamics of the flow, and reduced-order reconstruction and long-time future-state prediction of the flow fields, simultaneously. In test cases, we apply the developed method to analyze different flow regimes past a cylinder, including laminar flows with low Reynolds number in transient and steady states (RD = 100) and high Reynolds number flow (RD = 1000), respectively. The results indicate that the identified NNMs are able to reveal the nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics of these flows, and the NNMs-based reduced-order modeling consistently achieves better accuracy with orders of magnitudes smaller errors in construction and prediction of the nonlinear velocity and vorticity fields, compared to the linear proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method and the Koopman-constrained-CNN-AE using the same number or dimension of modes. We perform an analysis of the modal energy distribution of NNMs and find that compared to POD modes, the few fundamental NNMs capture a very high level of total energy of the flow, which is advantageous for reduced-order modeling and representation of the complex flows. Finally, we discuss the potentials and limitations of the presented method.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photoluminescence of Cis-Polyacetylene Semiconductor Material

Photoluminescence (PL) is one of the key experimental characterizations of optoelectronic materials, including conjugated polymers (CPs). In this study, a simplified model of an undoped cis-polyacetylene (cis-PA) oligomer was selected and used to explain the mechanism of photoluminescence (PL) of the CPs. Using a combination of the ab initio electronic structure and a time-dependent density matrix methodology, the photo-induced time-dependent excited state dynamics were computed. We explored the phonon-induced relaxation of the photoexcited state for a single oligomer of cis-PA. Here, the dissipative Redfield equation of the motion was used to compute the dissipative excited state dynamics of electronic degrees of freedom. This equation used the nonadiabatic couplings as parameters. The computed excited state dynamics showed that the relaxation rate of the electron is faster than the relaxation rate of the hole. The dissipative excited-state dynamics were combined with radiative recombination channels to predict the PL spectrum. The simulated results showed that the absorption and emission spectra both have a similar transition. The main result is that the computed PL spectrum demonstrates two mechanisms of light emission originating from (i) the inter-band transitions, corresponding to the same range of transition energies as the absorption spectrum and (ii) intra-band transitions not available in the absorption spectra. However, the dissipative Redfield equation of the motion was used to compute the electronic degrees of freedom of the nonadiabatic couplings, which helped to process the time propagation of the excited dynamic state. This excited dynamic state shows that the relaxation rate of the electron is faster than the relaxation rate of the hole, which can be used for improving organic semiconductor materials for photovoltaic and LED applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tailored computational approaches to interrogate heavy element chemistry and structure in condensed phase

In this chapter we are presenting a brief review of the challenges encountered in the study of 4f and 5f block elements in the condensed phase. Their recovery, use in molten salt reactors and other interesting applications necessitate the use of molecular dynamics and large-scale models that take into account both the electronic structure and relativistic corrections. Sampling the multitude of electronic and atomic configurational states is at the heart of reliable predictions of structure, reactivity, dynamics and transport of heavy metals in complex environments. We present three examples that combine lanthanide elements with large scale models: i) our recent developments of a versatile adaptive learning method that enables global optimization in high dimensional spaces, ii) results of computed pKa values of lanthanide aqua complexes, and iii) structure and computed EXAFS of heavy elements in molten salts. The latter two employ our recently-optimized lanthanide pseudo-potentials and companion basis sets for condensed phase ab initio molecular dynamics.

Nguyen, Manh Thuong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid Frequency Stability: A Proactive Scheme Based on Dynamic Predictions

The dynamic nature of microgrids introduces challenges in the context of frequency stability. This work presents a framework where the future state of microgrid frequency is predicted and corrective actions are optimized. Predictions are generated through Bayesian filters leveraging synchronized data acquired via PMUs. Taking a proactive approach makes it possible to optimize corrective actions considering dynamic system conditions. Testing is conducted via Matlab simulations. The performance of the solution presented in this work is compared to traditional load-shedding schemes and to predictive solutions found in literature. The results indicate that the proposed framework outperforms both. Some of the advantages of this framework include a reduction in amount of load dropped during compensation, the use of adaptive parameters which eliminates the need to simulate contingency conditions, and dynamic uncertainty quantification provided the particle filter.

Paramo, Gian↗