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NASA NTRS2005

Planetary Geophysics and Tectonics

The broad objective of this work is to improve understanding of the internal structures and thermal and stress histories of the solid planets by combining results from analytical and computational modeling, and geophysical data analysis of gravity, topography and tectonic surface structures. During the past year we performed two quite independent studies in the attempt to explain the Mariner 10 magnetic observations of Mercury. In the first we revisited the possibility of crustal remanence by studying the conditions under which one could break symmetry inherent in Runcorn's model of a uniformly magnetized shell to produce a remanent signal with a dipolar form. In the second we applied a thin shell dynamo model to evaluate the range of intensity/structure for which such a planetary configuration can produce a dipole field consistent with Mariner 10 results. In the next full proposal cycle we will: (1) develop numerical and analytical and models of thin shell dynamos to address the possible nature of Mercury s present-day magnetic field and the demise of Mars magnetic field; (2) study the effect of degree-1 mantle convection on a core dynamo as relevant to the early magnetic field of Mars; (3) develop models of how the deep mantles of terrestrial planets are perturbed by large impacts and address the consequences for mantle evolution; (4) study the structure, compensation, state of stress, and viscous relaxation of lunar basins, and address implications for the Moon s state of stress and thermal history by modeling and gravity/topography analysis; and (5) use a three-dimensional viscous relaxation model for a planet with generalized vertical viscosity distribution to study the degree-two components of the Moon's topography and gravity fields to constrain the primordial stress state and spatial heterogeneity of the crust and mantle.

Zuber, Maria↗

NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: from Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-‐organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) рealistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high-‐resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-‐scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Magneti↗

NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗

NASA NTRS1991

The ionopause current layer at Venus

The results of recent theoretical models for the magnetic field in the ionosphere of Venus are reviewed, with special attention given to the 1D MHD model of Shinagawa and Cravens (1989) and the 2D kinematic dynamo model of Cravens et al. (1990). The results are used to examine the behavior of the ionopause, and it is suggested that the sensitivity of horizontal plasma transport to the presence of a magnetic field and the convergence of the vertical flow explain the narrowness of the Venus ionopause. During high solar wind dynamic pressure conditions, ion-neutral friction also plays an important role in determining the thickness of the ionopause.

Cravens, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Lunar magnetic history

The origin of the lunar magnetic field remains a mystery. None of the various speculations are convincing. Suggestions of an early solar system field are not consistent with the low magnetization of the oldest samples. Models based upon a close approach of the Moon to the Earth have to account for the 300 M.Y. approach. Lunar dynamo models must explain why this dynamo which must operate in so small a core can operate so efficiently. It is concluded that it is now hard to escape from the idea that there was a relatively strong ancient lunar field between 3.9 and 3.6 B.Y. Moreover it is curious that the existence of this field coincided with the termination of the heavy bombardment of the Moon and mare basalt extrusion.

Cisowski, S. M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity.

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Irina N. Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRS2007

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Lyatskaya, S.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Sheath-limited unipolar induction in the solar wind

A model of the steady-state interaction between the solar wind and an electrically conducting body having neither an atmosphere nor an intrinsic magnetic field sufficient enough to deflect the plasma flow is presented which considers some effects of a plasma surface sheath on unipolar induction. The Sonett-Colburn (1967, 1968) unipolar dynamo model is reviewed, and it is noted that the unipolar dynamo response of an electrically conducting body in the solar wind's motional field can be controlled by sheath effects in certain cases where the body radius is less than a certain critical value. It is shown that sheath effects do not limit the unipolar response of the moon or Mercury since their body radii are much larger than their critical radii. Sheath effects are also considered for asteroids, the Martian satellites, the irregular Jovian satellites, the outer satellites of Saturn, and meteorite parent bodies in a primordial enhanced solar wind.

Srnka, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The magnetic field of planets

The strength of the dipole fields H sub Oi of the various inspected planets are connected by simple scaling law, involving observable angular velocity omega, planetary radia R sub p velocity omega and amplitude alpha of planetary precession, and radia R sub c, densities RHO sub c, conductivities sigma sub c of their liquid cores according to the contemporary models of planetary inner structure. The Lunar paleofield of 1G, its decay to zero is also explained in the frame of precession-dynamo model, evolution of the Earth-Moon system and primeval satellites in its suggested by Runcorn.

Dolginov, S. S.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Solar wind induction in Mercury - Constraints on the formation of a magnetosphere

A model is outlined in which the origin of Mercury's magnetic field is attributed to electromagnetic induction from the interplanetary magnetic field. Both transverse magnetic (TM) and transverse electric (TE) induction are considered. It is found that neither mode can produce a totally detached magnetopause, so the highly nonlinear dynamics of magnetopausal flux deflection is investigated as a potential inhibitor of the decaying tendency of linear induction. No mechanism is discovered which can account for the large distance of the magnetopause, its temporal stability, and the orientation of the magnetic field. It is shown that the stochastic trapped-field TE model comes close to fulfilling these requirements, but cannot explain the Mariner 10 observations of Mercury's field. Noting the potential difficulties of the convective magnetic dynamo model, it is concluded that the source of Mercury's field is still poorly understood.

Herbert, F.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Dynamic Responses of the Earth's Outer Core to Assimilation of Observed Geomagnetic Secular Variation

Assimilation of surface geomagnetic observations and geodynamo models has advanced very quickly in recent years. However, compared to advanced data assimilation systems in meteorology, geomagnetic data assimilation (GDAS) is still in an early stage. Among many challenges ranging from data to models is the disparity between the short observation records and the long time scales of the core dynamics. To better utilize available observational information, we have made an effort in this study to directly assimilate the Gauss coefficients of both the core field and its secular variation (SV) obtained via global geomagnetic field modeling, aiming at understanding the dynamical responses of the core fluid to these additional observational constraints. Our studies show that the SV assimilation helps significantly to shorten the dynamo model spin-up process. The flow beneath the core-mantle boundary (CMB) responds significantly to the observed field and its SV. The strongest responses occur in the relatively small scale flow (of the degrees L is approx. 30 in spherical harmonic expansions). This part of the flow includes the axisymmetric toroidal flow (of order m = 0) and non-axisymmetric poloidal flow with m (is) greater than 5. These responses can be used to better understand the core flow and, in particular, to improve accuracies of predicting geomagnetic variability in future.

secular variation↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Stellar Imager (SI) - A Mission to Resolve Stellar Surfaces, Interiors, and Magnetic Activity

The Stellar Imager (SI) is a space-based, UV/Optical Interferometer (UVOI) designed to enable 0.1 milli-arcsecond (mas) spectral imaging of stellar surfaces and of the Universe in general. It will also probe via asteroseismology flows and structures in stellar interiors. SI will enable the development and testing of a predictive dynamo model for the Sun, by observing patterns of surface activity and imaging of the structure and differential rotation of stellar interiors in a population study of Sun-like stars to determine the dependence of dynamo action on mass, internal structure and flows, and time. SI's science focuses on the role of magnetism in the Universe and will revolutionize our understanding of the formation of planetary systems, of the habitability and climatology of distant planets, and of many magnetohydrodynamically controlled processes in the Universe. SI is a "LandmarklDiscovery Mission" in the 2005 Heliophysics Roadmap, an implementation of the UVOI in the 2006 Astrophysics Strategic Plan, and a NASA Vision Mission ("NASA Space Science Vision Missions" (2008), ed. M. Allen). We present here the science goals of the SI Mission, a mission architecture that could meet those goals, and the technology development needed to enable this mission

Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen↗

NASA NTRS2017

Building Reliable Forecasts of Solar Activity

Solar ionizing radiation critically depends on the level of the Sun’s magnetic activity. For robust physics-based forecasts, we employ the procedure of data assimilation, which combines theoretical modeling and observational data such that uncertainties in both the model and the observations are taken into account. Currently we are working in two major directions: 1) development of a new long-term forecast procedure on time-scales of the 11-year solar cycle, using a 2-dimensional mean-field dynamo model and synoptic magnetograms; 2) development of 3-dimensional radiative MHD (Magnetohydrodynamic) simulations to investigate the origin and precursors of local manifestations of magnetic activity, such as the formation of magnetic structures and eruptive dynamics.

Kitiashvili, Irina↗

NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

MoSST DAS: The First Working Geomagnetic Data Assimilation System

The Earth possesses an internal magnetic field (geomagnetic field) generated by convection in the outer core (geodynamo). Previous efforts have been focused along two distinct paths: (1) numerical geodynamo modeling to understand the origin of the geomagnetic field, and the mechanisms of geomagnetic secular variations (SV); and (2) geomagnetic field modeling to map the spatial/temporal variations of the field from geomagnetic data, and to derive core properties, e.g. inversion of core flow near the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Geomagnetic data assimilation is a new approach emerged over the past 5 years: surface observations are assimilated with geodynamo models for better understanding of the core dynamical state, and accurately prediction of SV. In collaboration with several geomagnetic research groups, we have developed the first working geomagnetic data assimilation system, Modular, Scalable, Self-consistent, and Three-dimensional (MoSST) DAS, that includes the MoSST numerical dynamo model; 7000 years of geomagnetic field maps from several field models utilizing satellite and ground observatory data, historical magnetic records and archeo/paleo magnetic data; and an ensemble based optimal interpolation (01) assimilation algorithm. With this system, we have demonstrated clearly that the assimilated core dynamical state is substantially different from those of pure geodynamo simulations. Ensemble assimilation runs also show the convergence of the assimilated solutions inside the core, suggesting that the simulation state is pulled closer to the truth via data assimilation. The forecasts from this system are also very accurate: the 5-year forecast of the geomagnetic field agrees very well with the observations; and the 5-year secular variation forecast is more accurate than the IGRF SV forecast models in the past. Using geomagnetic records up to 2009, we have made an SV forecast for the period from 2010-2015, and is a candidate SV model for IGRF-11.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗