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DOE OSTI2021

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond (resistance) and recover from (resilience) to rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the ED-2.2 model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900, and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes, and interacted with one another. We then calculated metrics of functional ecosystem stability. Modeled gross primary production exhibited a mean resistance of -0.13, -0.23, and -0.42 (unitless) in response to increasing disturbance severity of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality, respectively; and resilience of 0.002, 0.004, 0.008 (yr-1) respectively. This pattern held true for other carbon fluxes, meaning that in general simulated GPP declined more initially but recovered more quickly from higher mortality. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deforestation Increases Vegetation Vulnerability to Drought Across Biomes

Land use and land cover changes have altered terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage, but their impacts on ecosystem sensitivity to drought and temperature fluctuations have not been evaluated spatially over the globe. We estimate drought and temperature sensitivities of ecosystems using vegetation greenness from satellite observations and vegetation biomass from dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations. Using a space-for-time substitution with satellite data, we first illustrate the effects of vegetation cover changes on drought and temperature sensitivity and compare them with the effects estimated from DGVMs. We also compare simulations forced by scenarios with and without land cover changes to estimate the historical land cover change effects. Satellite data and vegetation models both show that converting forests to grasslands results in a more negative or decreased positive sensitivity of vegetation greenness or biomass to drought. Significant variability exists among models for other types of land cover transitions. We identify substantial effects of historical land cover changes on drought sensitivity from model simulations with a generally positive direction globally. Deforestation can lead to either an increased negative sensitivity, as drought-tolerant forests are replaced by grasslands based on model ensemble mean, or a decreased negative sensitivity, since forests under current land cover are predicted to exhibit greater drought resistance compared to those under pre-industrial land cover. Overall, our findings emphasize the critical role of forests in maintaining ecosystem stability and resistance to drought and temperature fluctuations, thereby implying their importance in stabilizing the carbon stock under increasingly extreme climate conditions.

Xiao, Chenwei [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochem↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of submerged macrophytes (Elodea nuttallii) on water quality and microbial communities of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) ponds

Traditional aquaculture ponds are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems; thus, ecological aquaculture is increasingly valued for its beneficial ecological properties and ecosystem services. However, little is known about ecological aquaculture of largemouth bass with submerged vegetation. Here, we designed three ecological ponds of cultured largemouth bass with submerged macrophytes (the EM group) and three ponds with traditional aquaculture (the M group) to reveal the response of water quality, and phytoplankton and bacterial communities, to submerged macrophyte bioremediation during a 90-day culture period. We observed that Cyanobacterial outbreak occurred in the M group ponds from day 7 to the end of the experiment; however, there were no Cyanobacterial blooms in the EM group ponds throughout the culture period. Compared with the M group ponds, the EM group ponds, which had submerged hydrophytes, had significantly decreased concentrations of TP, TN, and COD Mn , but significantly increased DO concentrations throughout the experimental period. Moreover, ecological aquaculture with submerged macrophytes showed strong effects on the phytoplankton and bacterial community compositions. In particular, the M group ponds had higher phytoplankton density and mainly included Cyanobacteria, whereas the EM group had lower phytoplankton density and mainly included Chlorophyta. Moreover, higher alpha diversity, as determined by Ace and Simpson index values, was detected for bacterial communities in the EM group ponds. Furthermore, PCoA clearly grouped the bacterial communities according to the two culture modes throughout the culture period. These results indicate that ecological aquaculture with submerged macrophytes can improve water quality, control Cyanobacterial blooms, and affect the diversity and composition of bacterial communities. These valuable effects seem to be beneficial and consistent to maintaining aquaculture ecosystem stability.

Nie, Zhijuan↗

NASA NTRS1986

Development of space technology for ecological habitats

The development of closed ecological systems for space stations is discussed. Growth chambers, control systems, microgravity, ecosystem stability, lighting equipment, and waste processing systems are among the topics discussed.

Martello, N. V.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Climate and Anthropogenic Controls on Blue Carbon Sequestration in Hudson River Tidal Marsh, Piermont, New York

Tidal marshes globally are experiencing erosion with sea level rise. In order to adaptively plan for essential marsh preservation, we recognize the importance of the investigation of marsh archives for the perspective they provide toward resilience. Our objective in this study is to examine the relationship of tidal marsh carbon sequestration with both climate change and human impact throughout past centuries and millennia. A Hudson River marsh sediment core spanning the last 2000 years is analyzed for bulk loss on ignition (LOI), bulk density, sedimentation rate, carbon (C) and mineral flux, and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis including lead, copper, titanium and potassium. We compare this record to previously established pollen and spore stratigraphy from the same site, along with an extensive macrofossil based AMS 14C chronology based upon both cores. Carbon accumulation generally follows sediment accumulation rates, which were higher than 200 g C m−2 yr−1 prior to 1500 years ago. Declines in carbon storage rate during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) are linked to drought, fire, and charcoal, while lesser declines during the Little Ice Age (LIA) are linked to cooling and a shorter growing season. Subsequent human impact with marsh haying practices also led to carbon accumulation rate decline to 100 g C m−2 yr−1. Increases in C sequestration rates in recent decades may be attributable to nitrogen pollution of the estuary, invasive plants, and/or increased flooding, but the lack of mineral sediment threatens their stability. Ecosystem function is declining with the loss of foundational species, and the crisis is deepening for preservation of this habitat. We strongly recommend strategies for minimizing marsh loss.

Climate controls↗

NASA NTRS1975

Stochastic stability and instability of model ecosystems

In this work, we initiate a stability study of multispecies communities in stochastic environment by using Ito's differential equations as community models. By applying the direct method of Liapunov, we obtain sufficient conditions for stability and instability in the mean of the equilibrium populations. The conditions are expressed in terms of the dominant diagonal property of community matrices, which is a suitable mechanism for resolving the central problem of 'complexity vs stability' in model ecosystems. As a by-product of this analysis we exhibit important structural properties of the stochastic density-dependent models, and establish tolerance of community stability to a broad class of nonlinear time-varying perturbations.

Ladde, G. S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Movement with meaning: integrating information into meta-ecology

Fluxes of matter, energy and information over space and time contribute to ecosystems' functioning and stability. The meta-ecosystem framework addresses the dynamics of ecosystems linked by these fluxes but, to date, has focused solely on energy and matter. Here, we synthesize existing knowledge of information's effects on local and connected ecosystems and demonstrate how new hypotheses emerge from the integration of ecological information into meta-ecosystem theory. First, we begin by defining information and reviewing how it flows among ecosystems to affect connectivity, local ecosystem function and meta-ecosystem dynamics. We focus on the role of semiotic information: that which can reduce an individual's – or a group's – uncertainty about the state of the world. Semiotic information elicits behavioral, developmental and life history responses from organisms, potentially leading to fitness consequences. Organisms' responses to information can ripple through trophic interactions to influence ecosystem processes, their local and regional dynamics, and the spatiotemporal flows of energy and matter, therefore information should affect meta-ecosystem dynamics such as stability and productivity. While specific subdisciplines of ecology currently consider different types of information (e.g. social and cultural information, natural and artificial light or sound, body condition, genotype and phenotype), many ecological models currently account for neither the spatio–temporal distribution of information nor its perception by organisms. We identify the empirical, theoretical and philosophical challenges in developing a robust information meta-ecology and offer ways to overcome them. Finally, we present new hypotheses for how accounting for realistic information perception and responses by organisms could impact processes such as home range formation and spatial insurance, and thus our understanding of ecological dynamics across spatial and temporal scales. Accounting for information will be essential to understanding how dynamics such as fitness, organismal movement and trophic interactions influence meta-ecosystem functioning, and predicting how ecosystem processes are affected by anthropogenic pressures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of inoculation practices on microbiota assembly and community stability in a fabricated ecosystem

Studying plant-microbe-soil interactions is challenging due to their high complexity and variability in natural ecosystems. While fabricated ecosystems provide opportunities to recapitulate aspects of these systems in reduced complexity and controlled environments, inoculation can be a significant source of variation. To tackle this, we evaluated how different bacteria inoculation practices and plant harvesting time points affect the reproducibility of a microbial synthetic community (SynCom) in association with the model grass Brachypodium distachyon. We tested three microbial inoculation practices: seed inoculation, transplant inoculation, and seedling inoculation; and two harvesting points: early (14-day-old plants) and late (21 days post-inoculation). We grew our plants and bacterial strains in sterile devices (EcoFABs) and characterized the microbial community from root, rhizosphere, and sand using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing. The results showed that inoculation practices significantly affected the rhizosphere microbial community only when harvesting at an early time point but not at the late stage. As the SynCom showed a persistent association with B. distachyon at 21 days post-inoculation regardless of inoculation practices, we assessed the reproducibility of each inoculation method and found that transplant inoculation showed the highest reproducibility. Moreover, plant biomass was not adversely affected by transplant inoculation treatment. We concluded that bacteria inoculation while transplanting coupled with a later harvesting time point gives the most reproducible microbial community in the EcoFAB-B. distachyon-SynCom fabricated ecosystem and recommend this method as a standardized protocol for use with fabricated ecosystem experimental systems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Time-lapse electrical resistivity and induced polarization monitoring of a simulated ecosystem-scale coastal flooding experiment

Accurate estimation of the spatio-temporal variation in soil saturation and salt concentration is valuable for calibrating and evaluating Earth system models as well as detecting important eco-hydrological interactions. Such representative models play a vital role in investigating the stability of ecosystems facing changing hydrologic disturbance regimes. Ecosystem-scale field experiments are a useful way to capture hydrological disturbance and gain a deeper understanding of the complex mechanisms driving environmental changes. However, previous studies have not explored the use of quantitative imaging at a large spatial scale to reproduce breakthrough curves and inform system response and recovery following hydrologic disturbance events. Therefore, in this study, non-invasive geophysical methods were used to capture the spatio-temporal variation in subsurface saturation and salt concentrations during an ecosystem-scale coastal forest flooding experiment.

coastal↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Dynamic Water Storage in Unsaturated Bedrock with Borehole Nuclear Magnetic Resonance

Quantifying the volume of water that is stored in the subsurface is critical to studies of water availability to ecosystems, slope stability, and water-rock interactions. In a variety of settings, water is stored in fractured and weathered bedrock as rock moisture. However, few techniques are available to measure rock moisture in unsaturated rock, making direct estimates of water storage dynamics difficult to obtain. Here, we use borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) at two sites in seasonally dry California to quantify dynamic rock moisture storage. Additionally, we show strong agreement between NMR estimates of dynamic storage and estimates derived from neutron logging and mass balance techniques. The depths of dynamic storage are up to 9 m and likely reflect the depth extent of root water uptake. To our knowledge, these data are the first to quantify the volume and depths of dynamic water storage in the bedrock vadose zone via NMR.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Compositional stability of peat in ecosystem-scale warming mesocosms

Peatlands historically have acted as a C sink because C-fixation rates exceeded the rate of heterotrophic decomposition. Under future warmer conditions predicted for higher latitudes, however, that balance may shift towards higher rates of heterotrophic respiration leading to the release of previously stored C as CO 2 and CH 4 . The Spruce and Peatlands Response Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment is designed to test the response of peatlands to climate forcing using a series of warmed enclosures in combination with peat below-ground heating from 0 to +9°C above ambient conditions. This experimental design allowed a test of chemical changes occurring within peatland soils following five years of warming. We analyzed samples in the uppermost 2m of peat using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) to quantify the relative abundance of carbohydrate and aromatic compounds in the peat. The peat soils were subjected to deep peat heating (DPH) beginning in June of 2014 followed by whole ecosystem warming (WEW) in August of 2015. We found that the relative amounts of labile and recalcitrant chemical compound groups across the full peat depth interval did not significantly change after five years of exposure to warming. This appears the case even though previous studies have shown that net C losses and loss of bulk peat mass to be instability over that time period. Results suggest that the current store of carbon in peatlands are largely compositionally stable leading to no changes the in the ratio of chemical moieties on the initial four-year timescale of this experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

SPRUCE Compositional Stability of Peat in Ecosystem-Scale Warming Mesocosms, 2014 and 2019

This dataset contains measurements of carbohydrate and aromatic compounds in peat samples subjected to various levels of deep peat heating (DPE) and whole ecosystem warming (WEW). Samples were collected in August 2014 and August 2019 at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site within the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. These data serve to identify chemical changes occurring within peatland soils following five years of warming. Samples were analyzed in the uppermost 2m of peat using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) to quantify the relative abundance of carbohydrate and aromatic compounds in the peat. The peat soils were subjected to DPH beginning in June of 2014 followed by WEW in August of 2015. This dataset contains one data file in comma-separated values (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma-separated values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward a Generalizable Framework of Disturbance Ecology Through Crowdsourced Science

Disturbances fundamentally alter ecosystem functions, yet predicting their impacts remains a key scientific challenge. While the study of disturbances is ubiquitous across many ecological disciplines, there is no agreed-upon, cross-disciplinary foundation for discussing or quantifying the complexity of disturbances, and no consistent terminology or methodologies exist. This inconsistency presents an increasingly urgent challenge due to accelerating global change and the threat of interacting disturbances that can destabilize ecosystem responses. By harvesting the expertise of an interdisciplinary cohort of contributors spanning 42 institutions across 15 countries, we identified an essential limitation in disturbance ecology: the word ‘disturbance’ is used interchangeably to refer to both the events that cause, and the consequences of, ecological change, despite fundamental distinctions between the two meanings. In response, we developed a generalizable framework of ecosystem disturbances, providing a well-defined lexicon for understanding disturbances across perspectives and scales. The framework results from ideas that resonate across multiple scientific disciplines and provides a baseline standard to compare disturbances across fields. This framework can be supplemented by discipline-specific variables to provide maximum benefit to both inter- and intra-disciplinary research. To support future syntheses and meta-analyses of disturbance research, we also encourage researchers to be explicit in how they define disturbance drivers and impacts, and we recommend minimum reporting standards that are applicable regardless of scale. Finally, we discuss the primary factors we considered when developing a baseline framework and propose four future directions to advance our interdisciplinary understanding of disturbances and their social-ecological impacts: integrating across ecological scales, understanding disturbance interactions, establishing baselines and trajectories, and developing process-based models and ecological forecasting initiatives. Our experience through this process motivates us to encourage the wider scientific community to continue to explore new approaches for leveraging Open Science principles in generating creative and multidisciplinary ideas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Long-term lunar stations: Some ecological considerations

A major factor for long-term success of a lunar station is the ability to keep an agroecosystem functioning at a desirable, stable steady-state with ecological stability and reliability. Design for a long-lived extraterrestrial manned station must take into account interactions among its subsystems to insure that overall functionality is enhanced (or at least not compromised). Physical isolation of feed production, human living areas, recycling, and other systems may be straightforward, however, microbiological isolation will be very difficult. While it is possible to eliminate plant-associated microbiological communities by growing the plants asepticallly, it is not practical to keep plants germ-free on a large scale if humans are working with them. Ecological theory strongly suggests that some kinds of communities or organisms effectively increase the stability of ecosystems and will protect the plants from potential pathogens. A carefully designed and maintained (lunar-derived) soil can provide a variety of habitats for effective microbial buffers while adding structure to the agroecosystem. A soil can also increase ecosystem reliability through buffering otherwise large element and compound fluctuations (of nutrients, wastes, etc.) as well as buffering temperature level and atmosphere composition. We are doing experiments in ecological dynamics and attempting to extend the relevant theories.

Maguire, Bassett, Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Biomass-burning Aerosols in South East-Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment(BASE-ASIA)

Biomass burning has been a regular practice for land clearing and land conversion in many countries, especially in Africa, South America, and South East Asia. Significant global sources of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4), chemically active gases (e.g., NO, CO, HC, CH3Br), and atmospheric aerosols are produced by biomass-burning processes, which influence the Earth-atmosphere energetics and hence impact both global climate and tropospheric chemistry. Some gases and aerosols can serve as active cloud condensation nuclei, which play important role in determining the net radiation budget, precipitation rate, and cloud lifetime. Biomass burning also affects the biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen and carbon compounds from the soil to the atmosphere; the hydrological cycle (i.e., run off and evaporation); the reflectivity and emissivity of the land; and the stability of ecosystems and ecosystem biodiversity. Compared to Africa and South America, the climatology in South East Asia reveals quite different characteristics, showing distinct large-scale smoke and cloud sources and interaction regimes. The fresh water distribution in this region is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall; in fact, the predictability of the tropical climate system is much reduced during the boreal spring, which is associated with the peak season of biomass burning activities. Estimating the burning fuel (e.g., bark, branches, and wood), an important part of studying regional carbon cycle, may rely on utilizing a wide range of distinctive spectral features in the shortwave and longwave regions. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of smoke aerosols in this region requires continuous observations from satellites, aircraft, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. A new initiative will be proposed and discussed.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

DOE OSTI2023

Drivers of stability and transience in composition-functioning links during serial propagation of litter-decomposing microbial communities

ABSTRACT Biotic factors that influence the temporal stability of microbial community functioning are an emerging research focus for the control of natural and engineered systems. The discovery of common features within community ensembles that differ in functional stability over time is a starting point to explore biotic factors. We serially propagated a suite of soil microbial communities through five generations of 28-day microcosm incubations to examine microbial community compositional and functional stability during plant litter decomposition. Using dissolved organic carbon (DOC) abundance as a target function, we hypothesized that microbial diversity, compositional stability, and associated changes in interactions would explain the relative stability of the ecosystem function between generations. Communities with initially high DOC abundance tended to converge towards a “low DOC” phenotype within two generations, but across all microcosms, functional stability between generations was highly variable. By splitting communities into two cohorts based on their relative DOC functional stability, we found that compositional shifts, diversity, and interaction network complexity were associated with the stability of DOC abundance between generations. Further, our results showed that legacy effects were important in determining compositional and functional outcomes, and we identified taxa associated with high DOC abundance. In the context of litter decomposition, achieving functionally stable communities is required to utilize soil microbiomes to increase DOC abundance and long-term terrestrial DOC sequestration as one solution to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Identifying factors that stabilize function for a community of interest may improve the success of microbiome engineering applications. IMPORTANCE Microbial community functioning can be highly dynamic over time. Identifying and understanding biotic factors that control functional stability is of significant interest for natural and engineered communities alike. Using plant litter–decomposing communities as a model system, this study examined the stability of ecosystem function over time following repeated community transfers. By identifying microbial community features that are associated with stable ecosystem functions, microbial communities can be manipulated in ways that promote the consistency and reliability of the desired function, improving outcomes and increasing the utility of microorganisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗