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Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Fortalecimiento de la Electrificación Rural en Honduras: Una Evaluación Integrada de PV+BESS y Usos Productivos de la Electricidad en Gracias a Dios, Honduras [Empowering Rural Electrification in Honduras: An Integrated Assessment of PV/BESS and Productive Uses of Electricity in Gracias a Dios] (Spanish Translation)

Honduras faces significant challenges in its energy sector, particularly in rural areas where access to reliable and affordable electricity remains limited. The flagship rural electrification initiative for Honduras Secretary of Energy (SEN) is the Politica de Acceso Universal a la Electricidad (PAUEH - Universal Electricity Access Policy), a key solution for addressing this energy poverty is the deployment of more than 1700 distributed solar and hybrid mini-grid solutions. In late 2023 as a first step towards supporting SEN's electrification efforts, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a literature review of SEN electrification policy documents and conducted a series of technical capacity-building workshops with SEN and other energy sector stakeholders in Honduras focused on using NREL's open-source REopt tool to conduct techno-economic assessments and develop least-cost optimizations for potential solar + storage mini-grid systems. Building on some initial capacity building on mini-grid modeling, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked with SEN to develop a detailed techno-economic assessment for electrifying two schools, a healthcare clinic, and a hospital in a hypothetical community within the department of Gracias a Dios. The analysis also evaluates the business case for cold storage productive use of energy (PUE) applications for the fisheries value chain and how the incorporation of these PUE loads potentially impacts both the viability of the PV+BESS solutions as well as local economic development. By assessing the potential for deployment of integrated PV/BESS systems to both support critical community services like education and healthcare, as well as potential for downstream enterprise and economic development, this analysis represents a first step that can help to inform specific strategies for development of pilot PV+BESS projects aligned with national priorities and sector level planning under PAUEH. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/TP-7A40-90865.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Electrification Analysis: Manhattan Beer

This one-page highlight details the key takeaways from a project that utilized NREL's Fleet Research, Energy Data, and Insights (FleetREDI) data analysis pipeline, the Manhattan Beer Electrification Project. This project determined that Class-8 beverage distribution trucks operating in Manhattan show substantial electrification potential due to daily driving distances below 50 miles and low average speeds of 22mph or less. Their duty cycle needs can often be met by even modestly sized batteries and charging infrastructure. Vulnerable communities near their routes would benefit from fleet electrification.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

A microgrid deployment framework to support drayage electrification

The electrification of heavy-duty commercial vehicles (HDCVs) is key to enhancing air quality and reducing urban air pollution, but it also imposes significant demands on an electric grid not designed for such high loads. Without complementary infrastructure, electrification may yield limited air quality improvements. This article explores the critical role of microgrids—integrating solar photovoltaics and battery storage—in supporting HDCV electrification. We present an integrated framework to identify viable microgrid sites in a given region, estimate deployment costs, and optimize power use to reduce dependence on the grid. As a case study, we apply the framework to the region around the Port of Savannah, GA, USA, demonstrating how targeted microgrid deployment can enhance grid capacity, improve energy resiliency, and support electrified freight transport.

Electrical engineering

Electrifying education: Exploring the electrification potential of U.S. School bus fleets

We analyze the operations of 270 diesel school buses across the United States to assess their electrification potential and evaluate the impact of various charging strategies on electricity demand. We find that school buses typically follow a two-route schedule on weekdays, featuring extended dwell times between morning and evening trips. Weekday trip distances average 25 miles, while weekend trips average 42 miles. Charging simulations indicate over 90% of the U.S. school bus fleet could be electrified using current technologies (300-mile range at 1.21 kWh/mile with 19.2-kW depot charging) without modifying existing operating patterns. Depot charging is a key enabler of school bus electrification, however, the strategic placement of charging stations at other locations (e.g., schools) can further increase electrification potential. Additionally, we find electric school bus charging to be highly flexible, with charge management capable of reducing peak charging loads at depots by up to 77%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

Around 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

The health, climate, and equity benefits of freight truck electrification in the United States

Abstract Long-haul freight shipment in the United States relies on diesel trucks and constitutes ∼3% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and a significant share of local air pollution. Here, we compare the climate and air pollution-related health damages from electric versus diesel long-haul truck fleets. We use truck commodity flows to estimate tailpipe emissions from diesel trucks and regional grid emissions intensities to estimate charging emissions from electric trucks under various grid scenarios. We use a reduced complexity air quality model combined with valuation of air pollution-related premature deaths (using two hazard ratios (HRs)) and quantify the distributional health impacts in different scenarios. We find that annual health and climate costs of the current diesel fleet are $195–$249/capita compared to $174–$205/capita for a new diesel fleet, and $156–$177/capita for an electric fleet, depending on the HR. We find that freight electrification could avoid $6.2–8.5 billion in health and climate damages annually when compared to a fleet of new diesel vehicles (with even higher benefits when compared to the current diesel fleet). However, the Midwest and parts of the Gulf Coast would experience an increase in health damages due to vehicles charging using electricity from coal power plants. If old coal power plants (operating in 1980 or earlier) are replaced with zero-emission generation, electrification of all U.S. freight would result in $32.3–39.2 billion in avoided damages annually and health benefits throughout the U.S. Electrifying transport of consumer manufacturing goods (including electronics, transport equipment, and precision instruments) and food, beverage, and tobacco products would provide the largest absolute health and climate benefits, whereas mixed freight and manufacturing goods would result in the largest benefits per tonne-km. We find small variations in health damages across race and income. These results will help policymakers prioritize electrification and charging investment strategies for the freight transportation sub-sector.

Hennessy, Eleanor M. (ORCID:0000000294715765)

Analyzing School Bus Electrification in Richmond, Virginia

School buses are an essential component of the transportation infrastructure, serving as a lifeline for students across the globe. However, the widespread use of diesel school buses has raised concerns about the health impact on millions of students exposed to harmful emissions daily. Recognizing this issue, school districts worldwide are urgently seeking cleaner energy alternatives. Electric school buses emerge as an environmentally friendly and sustainable option, fostering a healthier environment for both students and communities. However, school bus electrification faces the challenges of high upfront cost, cumbersome charging management, and constraints from power grids. To help school bus operators address those challenges, this study presents a data-driven analysis for school bus electrification. This study considered a real-world school bus system in Richmond, VA, and developed a mathematical programming model to analyze the system design, charging strategies, and charging load profiles for the electrification scenario. The study evaluated different charging strategies based on model outcomes, aiming to optimize efficiency and effectiveness. Ultimately, this research generated electric school bus charging demand profiles under various scenarios, shedding light on the feasibility and implications of transitioning to electric-powered school buses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Case Study: Seattle Waterfront Networked Microgrid Evaluation - Case Study for Port Electrification Handbook

Many ports and waterfronts are evaluating alternative electrification efforts, including electrification of passenger and vehicle ferries. In Seattle, the Washington State Department of Transportation, in conjunction with Seattle City Light (the local utility) and the Port of Seattle, are working to deploy a hybrid electric ferry and provide charging at Seattle’s Colman dock. As part of this ferry electrification effort, Seattle City Light is considering including a large battery energy storage system (BESS) to help “buffer” the ferry charging. The “buffer” provides energy arbitrage and spreads out the large amount of power needed to recharge the ferry to times when the ferry is out of the dock – rather than one very large peak for 15 minutes, the battery storage allows it to be a smaller power value over a longer duration. This initial BESS concept served as the jumping off point to explore an expanded microgrid concept via a notional test system that incorporates additional distributed energy resources (DER) and infrastructure upgrades to the local distribution infrastructure at the Seattle Waterfront and neighboring Port of Seattle properties. This case study examined the potential for secondary use of the BESS within a networked microgrid during the scenario of a large-scale power outage, such as a natural disaster.

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Industrial Electrification Technologies Booklet

Electrification refers to transitioning from fuel-powered systems to electrically-powered alternatives. In an industrial context, this primarily refers to the electrification of process heat, but there are also widespread opportunities to electrify space heating and cooling as well as onsite transportation (e.g., forklifts). Electrification does not refer to one particular technology, but a wide range of technologies that use different methods to transfer electrical energy into a usable form – usually heat.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Meadowview Neighborhood Electrification Project

Awarded a Congressionally Directed Spend (CDS) in 2023, Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) has successfully executed the Meadowview Neighborhood Electrification Project designed to demonstrate the efficacy of residential energy efficiency and weatherization upgrades for under-resourced communities positively impacting energy use reductions, financial metrics, and indoor air quality. Initially, the project sought to electrify and upgrade 300 homes in Sacramento’s Meadowview neighborhood. However, as interest and momentum grew, the project team proved increasingly efficient and was able to retrofit 374 homes. The project built on SMUD’s years of effort increasing energy efficiency, weatherization, and electrification for low-income residential customers—moving beyond incremental improvements toward full home electrification where it was both feasible and cost-effective.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

Transportation Electrification Impact Study (TEIS)

Recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notices of proposed rulemakings for GHG emissions standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty on-road vehicles would accelerate ongoing advancements already happening in the industry because of private investment, consumer demand, state-level policies, and federal incentives. As the EPA finalizes these regulations, questions persist regarding the cost of the requisite charging infrastructure and associated upgrades to the nation's electric grid. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, and the EPA, a multidisciplinary team conducted a Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study that quantitatively assesses the incremental investment necessary to enable the levels of vehicle electrification expected to be induced by pending EPA regulations and to estimate the potential value of deferred investments in electric distribution infrastructure stemming from proactive vehicle-grid integration planning and deployment. This study finds the simulated incremental capital cost of charging infrastructure (including grid upgrades) to be at least 2.5 times smaller than the lifetime net benefits of vehicle electrification (including fuel savings but excluding the value of avoided emissions). Additionally, the incremental distribution grid upgrade cost of the EPA Action-Unmanaged scenario was found to be approximately 3% of existing utility distribution system investments (on an annual basis). Finally, the potential for managed charging to defer distribution grid upgrades was found to be significant with costs found to decrease from $2.3 billion to an incremental cost of $1 billion across five states in the Action-Managed scenario (relative to the No Action-Unmanaged scenario).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND

Propulsion Electrification Architecture Selection Process and Cost of Carbon Abatement Analysis for Heavy-Duty Off-Road Material Handler

The heavy-duty off-road industry continues to expand efforts to reduce fuel consumption and CO 2 e (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions. Many manufacturers are pursuing electrification to decrease fuel consumption and emissions. Future policies will likely require electrification for CO2e savings, as seen in light-duty on-road vehicles. Electrified architectures vary widely in the heavy-duty off-road space, with parallel hybrids in some applications and series hybrids in others. The diverse applications for different types of equipment mean different electrified configurations are required. Companies must also determine the value in pursuing electrified architectures; this work analyzes a range of electrified architectures, from micro hybrids to parallel hybrids to series hybrids to a BEV, looking at the total cost, total CO 2 e, and cost per CO 2 e (cost of carbon abatement, or cost of carbon reduction) using data for the year 2021. This study is focused on a heavy-duty off-road material handler, the Pettibone Cary-Lift 204i. This machine’s specialty application, including events like unloading large oil pipes from a railcar, requires a unique electrified architecture that suits its specific needs. However, the results from this study may be extrapolated to similar machinery to inform fuel savings options across the heavy-duty off-road industry. In this study, a unique electrified architecture is determined for the Cary-Lift. This architecture is informed by multiple rounds of a Pugh matrix decision analysis to select a shortened list of desirable electrified architectures. The shortened list is modeled and simulated to determine CO 2 e, cost, and cost per CO 2 e. A final architecture is determined as a plug-in series hybrid that reduces fuel consumption by 65%, targeting the large fuel and CO 2 e savings that are likely to be required for the future of the heavy-duty off-road industry.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California

Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Equitable Strategies for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Electrification in San José, California [Slides]

Hotter summers, heat waves, wildfires, and droughts are already affecting San Jose residents, with historically marginalized communities impacted first and worst. The City of San Jose has ambitious goals to make the city climate-neutral by 2030 and serve as an example for cities to accelerate climate action around the world. Electrifying and decarbonizing residential buildings are important priorities to achieve San Jose's plans to reach carbon neutrality while enabling residents to live the "Good Life 2.0" - a vision that aligns with community-identified priorities of safety, health, freedom, community, and positive experiences. This technical assistance built upon the Electrify San Jose: Framework for Existing Building Electrification to identify actionable strategies to make single- and multi-family buildings both energy-efficient and all-electric. This report is intended to provide the San Jose Climate Smart team and their partners with relevant data, insights, and actionable analysis to aid in-depth and nuanced engagements with key stakeholders. In particular, the findings in this report highlight opportunities and challenges for San Jose City Council, residents, building owners, developers, financial institutions, and utility partners instrumental in building support and earning buy-in for energy efficiency and electrification upgrades in existing buildings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

ELECTRIFICATION OF A HEAVY-DUTY OFF-ROAD MATERIAL HANDLER: ENERGY SAVINGS AND EMISSION REDUCTIONS

Federal regulations are driving the adoption of electrification technologies to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions, a metric that quantifies the global warming potential of various greenhouse gases in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2). Although no specific CO2 regulations exist for heavy-duty off-road machines, future reductions are likely, given stricter emissions standards for on-road vehicles. The heavy-duty off-road sector offers significant fuel-saving potential, as its focus has traditionally been on reliability and performance rather than fuel efficiency. This dissertation examines fuel and CO2e savings opportunities on a heavy-duty off-road material handler, the Pettibone Cary-Lift 204i, from stock configuration to simple modifications to a complete teardown and reconfiguration of the machine with a plug-in series hybrid architecture using electrified hydraulics. The study begins by modeling the baseline machine’s fuel and energy consumption, calibrating with experimental data from custom operating cycles. An energy analysis identifies key areas for fuel savings. Two simple powertrain modifications result in a combined 16.2% fuel savings. Next, a Pugh-style analysis narrows a list of electrified architectures, leading to high-fidelity models that evaluate total lifetime CO2e and costs. Higher electrification levels reduce CO2e emissions but increase costs, and electricity grid emissions significantly impact CO2e for plug-in architectures. A plug-in series hybrid is chosen for the project. In its base control form, 49% fuel and 29% CO2e savings are expected from the plug-in series hybrid compared to the baseline machine. Further savings are pursued through regenerative braking (6.3%) and load-following hydraulic control (17.8%), totaling 24.1% fuel savings, and leading to a total of 61% fuel and 41% CO2e savings compared to the baseline. Battery chemistries and charging strategies are also analyzed for cost and CO2e impacts, finding LFP batteries as superior due to longevity, and overnight level 2 charging usually at a lower cost but resulting in higher emissions than opportunity DC fast-charging (DCFC). DCFC emissions are highly dependent on grid emissions, and DCFC cost is highly dependent on grid demand charges. Finally, artificial intelligence is applied to operating cycle recognition. Neural network accuracy ranges from 81% to 99%, with applications to worksite efficiency and safety improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

Among 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, approximately 42% have poor or no insulation. Envelope retrofits of these buildings will provide thermal resiliency and enable a pathway to electrification of space heating systems as a result of improved thermal performance. Hydronic Shell (HS) is a technology which combines an insulated retrofit panel with a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) thus enabling both envelope retrofit and space heating electrification. In this study, we used whole building energy simulation to evaluate energy impact of multi-family building retrofit with hydronic shell system. The simulation was performed for four locations of New York, Syracuse, Chicago and Boston. The results from the simulation showed more than 66% cooling energy reduction and more than 88% heating energy reduction from Hydronic Shell retrofit compared to Baseline building in all four locations. This reduction in energy consumption resulted in up to 219 MT reduction in annual CO2 emission. The cost reduction per floor area achieved from HVAC energy consumption reduction using Hydronic Shell retrofit was 0.66 to 0.99 $\$$/ft 2 . The results also showed higher percentage of heating energy reduction comes from the envelope only retrofit and higher percentage of cooling energy reduction comes from the retrofit HVAC system for the four locations under study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

eMosaic: Electrification Mosaic Platform for Grid Informed Smart Charging Management (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

ABB (Prime Contractor), in collaboration with its partners at the Utah State University (USU), Idaho National Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Power (RMP), and Electric Power Engineers (EPE), have performed research, development, and wide scale demonstration of a scalable and resilient Electrification Mosaic (eMosaic) platform for Smart Charge Management (SCM) for Electric Vehicle Infrastructure. Work was completed under DE EE0009194, titled “eMosaic Electrification Mosaic Platform for Grid Informed Smart Charging Management”, funded by the US Department of Energy. The project members developed algorithms that provide localized and bulk grid services and that reduce and stabilize costs all the way down the supply chain to the PEV owner through SCM. This platform aggregates telemetry from multiple data sources as pieces of the larger picture including personal, private fleet or transportation EVs, fast chargers and other supply equipment, weather service information, and geographically distributed charging sites such as public lots, garage and retail, and private or shared usage depots. ABB and the project team designed, tested, and improved a charging management system at local/edge and cloud levels. The ultimate objective of the project was to convincingly demonstrate that the developed secure eMosaic plat-form can be readily and favorably adopted by diverse utilities and site owners at scale. This was achieved through a demonstration plan with field deployment at several physical sites across 4 states and additional scalable simulation from high fidelity charging models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION