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Results for “empirical analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Energy‐Water Asynchrony Principally Determines Water Available for Runoff From Snowmelt in Continental Montane Forests

ABSTRACT Changes in the volume, rate, and timing of the snowmelt water pulse have profound implications for seasonal soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater recharge, and downstream water availability, especially in the context of climate change. Here, we present an empirical analysis of water available for runoff using five eddy covariance towers located in continental montane forests across a regional gradient of snow depth, precipitation seasonality, and aridity. We specifically investigated how energy‐water asynchrony (i.e., snowmelt timing relative to atmospheric demand), surface water input intensity (rain and snowmelt), and observed winter ET (winter AET) impact multiple water balance metrics that determine water available for runoff (WAfR). Overall, we found that WAfR had the strongest relationship with energy‐water asynchrony (adjusted r 2 = 0.52) and that winter AET was correlated to total water year evapotranspiration but not to other water balance metrics. Stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that none of the tested mechanisms were strongly related to the Budyko‐type runoff anomaly (highest adjusted r 2 = 0.21). We, therefore, conclude that WAfR from continental montane forests is most sensitive to the degree of energy‐water asynchrony that occurs. The results of this empirical study identify the physical mechanisms driving variability of WAfR in continental montane forests and are thus broadly relevant to the hydrologic management and modelling communities.

Webb, Ryan William↗

A causal data fusion method for the general exposure and outcome

Abstract With the advent of the big data era, the need to combine multiple individual data sets to draw causal effects arises naturally in many medical and biological applications. Especially each data set cannot measure enough confounders to infer the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this article, we extend the method proposed by a previous study to causal data fusion of more than two data sets without external validation and to a more general (continuous or discrete) exposure and outcome. Theoretically, we obtain the condition for identifiability of exposure effects using multiple individual data sources for the continuous or discrete exposure and outcome. The simulation results show that our proposed causal data fusion method has unbiased causal effect estimate and higher precision than traditional regression, meta‐analysis and statistical matching methods. We further apply our method to study the causal effect of BMI on glucose level in individuals with diabetes by combining two data sets. Our method is essential for causal data fusion and provides important insights into the ongoing discourse on the empirical analysis of merging multiple individual data sources.

Li, Hongkai↗

Data-driven enhancement of coherent structure-based models for predicting instantaneous wall turbulence

Predictions of the spatial representation of instantaneous wall-bounded flows, via coherent structure-based models, are highly sensitive to the geometry of the representative structures employed by them. In this study, we propose a methodology to extract the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the statistically significant eddies from multi-point wall-turbulence datasets, for direct implementation into these models to improve their predictions. The methodology is employed here for reconstructing a 3-D statistical picture of the inertial wall coherent turbulence for all canonical wall-bounded flows, across a decade of friction Reynolds number (Re T ). These structures are responsible for the Re T -dependence of the skin-friction drag and also facilitate the inner-outer interactions, making them key targets of structure-based models. The empirical analysis brings out the geometric self-similarity of the large-scale wall-coherent motions and also suggests the hairpin packet as the representative flow structure for all wall-bounded flows, thereby aligning with the framework on which the attached eddy model (AEM) is based. The same framework is extended here to also model the very-large-scaled motions, with a consideration of their differences in internal versus external flows. Implementation of the empirically-obtained geometric scalings for these large structures into the AEM is shown to enhance the instantaneous flow predictions for all three velocity components. Finally, an active flow control system driven by the same geometric scalings is conceptualized, towards favourably altering the influence of the wall coherent motions on the skin-friction drag.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Traceable and Scalable Food Balance Sheets from Agricultural Commodity Supply and Utilization Accounts (2010–2022)

Abstract The Food Balance Sheets (FBS), compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), serve as a cornerstone dataset for studies on agricultural development, food security, and dietary health, providing a broad overview of global and regional food systems. However, its limited transparency and scalability hinder its application in empirical analysis and multisector dynamic modeling. Here, we present a traceable Food Balance Sheets (T-FBS) dataset, developed from detailed Supply Utilization Accounts (SUA) using a novel Primary Commodity equivalent (PCe) aggregation approach. This framework enables the aggregation of commodity flows along supply chains while ensuring consistency and balance across multiple dimensions. The T-FBS dataset includes 57 PCe commodities across 195 regions for the period 2010–2022, consolidated from over 500 SUA products. While T-FBS closely aligns with FAO-FBS at aggregate levels for dietary energy and macronutrients, it identifies key uncertainties in other elements (e.g., feed, trade, stocks). By enhancing methodological transparency, traceability, and scalability, T-FBS strengthens the robustness of food system studies and fosters future research and collaboration within the open-source community.

agriculture↗

The role of chemical potential in compensation control in Si:AlGaN

Reduction in compensation in Si-doped Al-rich AlGaN is demonstrated via chemical potential control (CPC). The chemical potentials and the resulting formation energies of carbon on the nitrogen site (C N ) and cation vacancy complex with Si (V III + nSi III ) were related to growth variables through a thermodynamic supersaturation model, which quantitatively predicted the incorporation of C N and the generation of the V III + nSi III complex. The compensation “knee” behavior, i.e., decreasing conductivity with increasing Si incorporation beyond a certain concentration, was successfully controlled. The maximum free carrier concentration was improved by impeding the formation of V III + nSIi III complexes under III-richer conditions, while the impurity compensation by C N was reduced by making the growth environment N-richer. The results of Hall effect measurement and photoluminescence agreed well with quantitative theoretical predictions of the CPC model. Based on the developed model, the highest conductivity of 160 Ω -1 cm -1 with free carrier concentration of 3 × 10 19 cm -3 in Al 0.7 Ga 0.3 N ever reported was achieved on single crystal AlN substrates. The demonstrated predictive power of the CPC model should greatly reduce the empirical analysis or iterative experimentation that would otherwise be necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ionizing photon interactions modulate the optical properties of crystals with femtosecond scale temporal resolution

In this work, we continue our study of a new method for the detection of ionizing radiation with the potential for a dramatic improvement in coincidence time resolution (CTR) for time-of-flight positron emission tomography (ToF-PET) using the modulation of a material's optical properties instead of the scintillation mechanism. Our previous work has shown that for non-scintillation materials such as bismuth silicon oxide (BSO) and cadmium telluride (CdTe), their refractive index can be modulated by annihilation photon interactions. Additionally, the ultrafast nature of this process however remains unexplored. The ionizing radiation-induced charge carriers alter the local band structure in these materials, thus changing the complex refractive index. This mechanism is routinely used at the linac coherent light source (LCLS) facility of the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory to measure x-ray pulse arrival times with femtosecond scale resolution for photon energies between 0.5 and 10 keV. The method described here follows that example by using a frequency chirped visible continuum pulse to provide a monotonic wavelength-to-time mapping by which one can measure the time-dependent refractive index modulation. In addition, we describe an interference-based measurement setup that allows for significantly improved sensitivity while preserving a timing precision of approximately 10 fs (σ) when measuring the arrival time of below 10 keV x-ray pulses with yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG) crystal. The method is presented in the context of ToF-PET application with further discussions on the potential CTR achievable if a similar detection concept is adopted for detecting 511 keV photons. Semi-empirical analysis indicates that the predicted CTR achievable is on the order of 1 ps (FWHM).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Storage Dispatch Assumptions on Resource Adequacy and Capacity Credit

Representing energy-limited resources in power system probabilistic resource adequacy assessment introduces new considerations that invalidate classical modeling assumptions. In particular, such resources have multi-period operating objectives and constraints that in real systems are addressed via a sequence of rolling intertemporal optimizations. Ideally, adequacy models would develop dispatch decisions by solving a similar sequence of problems, but this approach has historically been too computationally intensive for practical use in Monte Carlo simulations, with studies making use of simplifying approximations instead. These simplifications have the potential to distort the assessed value of energy-limited resources on the system.This work describes three classes of storage dispatch assumptions in current use and discusses their theoretical differences. It then provides an empirical analysis of their differences on test systems with different levels of storage, assessing the potential for a study's modeling assumptions to influence the perceived contribution of energy-limited resources.

capacity credit↗

MDLoader: A Hybrid Model-Driven Data Loader for Distributed Graph Neural Network Training

Scalable data management is essential for processing large scientific dataset on HPC platforms for distributed deep learning. In-memory distributed storage is preferred for its speed, enabling rapid, random, and frequent data access required by stochastic optimizers. Processes use one-sided or collective communication to fetch remote data, with optimal performance depending on (i) dataset characteristics, (ii) training scale, and (iii) interconnection network. Empirical analysis shows collective communication excels with larger mini-batch sizes and/or fewer processes, whereas one-sided communication outperforms at larger scales. We propose MDLoader, a hybrid in-memory data loader for distributed graph neural network training. MDLoader features a model-driven performance estimator that dynamically selects between one-sided and collective communication at the beginning of training using Tree of Parzen Estimators (TPE). Evaluations on NERSC Perlmutter and OLCF Summit show MDLoader outperforms single-backend loaders by up to 2.83 × and predicts the suitable communication method with 96.3% (Perlmutter) and 94.3% (Summit) success rate.

Bae, Jonghyun↗

Accelerating Parallel Applications in Cloud Platforms via Adaptive Time-Slice Control

Cloud platforms can provide flexible and cost-effective environments for parallel applications. However, the resource over-commitment issues, i.e., cloud providers often provide much more executable virtual CPUs than available physical CPUs, still impede the synchronization operations of parallel applications, causing severe performance degradation. Existing methods optimize parallel applications by promoting the priorities of involved VMs. They cannot fully explore the performance of parallel applications, because they ignore the time-slice requirements of different phases of parallel applications. Furthermore, non-parallel applications experience unsatisfied performance because of low scheduling priorities. Given empirical analysis on time-slices of virtual machines (VMs), we find that shortening time-slices can mitigate synchronization overhead which incurs during communication phases, while over-short time-slices cause frequent cache misses in computation phases. Accordingly, we propose an Adaptive Time-slice Control (ATC) mechanism. ATC first detects the phases of parallel applications based on lock latency or cache misses. Then, ATC shortens time-slices during communication phases and prolongs time-slices during computation phases for parallel applications, and sets a uniform time-slice for non-parallel applications. Finally, we evaluate ATC using seven well-known benchmarks with 25+ applications. Experiments show that ATC obtains 1.5-75x performance gain for running parallel applications than state-of-the-art solutions, with nearly unaffected impact on non-parallel applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Environmental controls on the light use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf‐level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy‐level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C 3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to “scale up” from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed‐effects model. The same model design was fitted to site‐based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple “goodness of fit” comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Updated ASME design correlations and qualification plan for powder bed fusion 316H stainless steel

This report provides an update on the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program effort to qualify Laser-Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) 316H stainless steel for use with the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code Section III, Division 5 rules. The report summarizes progress in testing and characterizing L-PBF material at elevated temperatures by providing preliminary design data for L-PBF 316H and by comparing the elevated temperature performance of the L-PBF material to wrought and conventional fusion welded 316H. The report then updates the initial AMMT qualification plan for L-PBF 316H, originally developed in 2023, to update the accelerated qualification strategy adopted in that plan to account for the new high temperature test data. The report also explores a few methods for further accelerating the qualification process using machine learning techniques to supplement the more conventional, empirical analysis methods typically used by ASME to correlate and extrapolate time-dependent material test data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimizing Distributed Training on Frontier for Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success as foundational models, benefiting various downstream applications through fine-tuning. Loss scaling studies have demonstrated the superior performance of larger LLMs compared to their smaller counterparts. Nevertheless, training LLMs with billions of parameters poses significant challenges and requires considerable computational resources. For example, training a one trillion parameter GPT-style model on 20 trillion tokens requires a staggering 120 million exaflops. This research explores efficient distributed training strategies to extract this computation from Frontier, the world's first exascale supercomputer. We enable and investigate various model and data parallel training techniques, such as tensor parallelism, pipeline parallelism, and sharded data parallelism, to facilitate training a trillion-parameter model on Frontier. We empirically assess these techniques and their associated parameters to determine their impact on memory footprint, communication latency, and GPU's computational efficiency. We analyze the complex interplay among these techniques and find a strategy to combine them to achieve high throughput through hyperparameter tuning. We have identified efficient strategies for training large LLMs of varying sizes through empirical analysis and hyperparameter tuning. For 22 Billion, 175 Billion, and 1 Trillion parameters, we achieved GPU throughputs of 38.38%, 36.14%, and 31.96%, respectively. For the training of the 175 Billion parameter model and the 1 Trillion parameter model, we achieved 100% weak scaling efficiency on 1024 and 3072 Mi250X GPUs, respectively. We also achieved strong scaling efficiencies of 89% and 87% for these two models. We trained these models only tens of iterations instead of training till completion.

Yin, Junqi↗

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A study of DC electrical breakdown in liquid helium through analysis of the empirical breakdown field distributions

Here we report results from a study on electrical breakdown in liquid helium using near-uniform-field stainless steel electrodes with a stressed area of ~0.7cm 2 . The distribution of the breakdown field is obtained for temperatures between 1.7 K and 4.0 K, pressures between the saturated vapor pressure and 626 Torr, and with electrodes of different surface polishes. A data-based approach for determining the electrode-surface-area scaling of the breakdown field is presented. The dependence of the breakdown probability on the field strength as extracted from the breakdown field distribution data is used to show that breakdown is a surface phenomenon closely correlated with Fowler–Nordheim field emission from asperities on the cathode. We show that the results from this analysis provide an explanation for the supposed electrode gap-size effect and also allow for a determination of the breakdown-field distribution for arbitrary shaped electrodes. Most importantly, the analysis method presented in this work can be extended to other noble liquids to explore the dependencies for electrical breakdown in those media.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Effect of Time Window and Spectral Measurement Options on Empirical Green’s Function Analysis Using DAS Array and Seismic Stations

The recorded seismic waveform is a convolution of event source term, path term, and station term. Removing high-frequency attenuation due to path effect is a challenging problem. Empirical Green’s function (EGF) method uses nearly collocated small earthquakes to correct the path and station terms for larger events recorded at the same station. However, this method is subject to variability due to many factors. Here, we focus on three events that were well recorded by the seismic network and a rapid response distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) array. Using a suite of high-quality EGF events, we assess the influence of time window, spectral measurement options, and types of data on the spectral ratio and relative source time function (RSTF) results. Increased number of tapers (from 2 to 16) tends to increase the measured corner frequency and reduce the source complexity. Extended long time window (e.g., 30 s) tends to produce larger variability of corner frequency. The multitaper algorithm that simultaneously optimizes both target and EGF spectra produces the most stable corner-frequency measurements. The stacked spectral ratio and RSTF from the DAS array are more stable than two nearby seismic stations, and are comparable to stacked results from the seismic network, suggesting that DAS array has strong potential in source characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗