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A Bottom-Up Scheme for User-Defined Feature Comparison in Ensemble Data
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InferA: A Smart Assistant for Cosmological Ensemble Data
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Deep Water Impact Ensemble Data Set
Asteroids of various sizes, speeds, and compositions are zipping around the solar system with potential future Earth engagements. Most of the earth is covered in ocean and impacts would likely occur in deep ocean water. The IEEE SciVis Contest 2018 is dedicated to the visualization and analysis of simulations designed to study asteroid impacts in deep ocean water.
Reducing TC Position Uncertainty in an Ensemble Data Assimilation and Prediction System: A Case Study of Typhoon Fanapi (2010)
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Receiver Gain Modulation Circuit
A receiver gain modulation circuit (RGMC) was developed that modulates the power gain of the output of a radiometer receiver with a test signal. As the radiometer receiver switches between calibration noise references, the test signal is mixed with the calibrated noise and thus produces an ensemble set of measurements from which ensemble statistical analysis can be used to extract statistical information about the test signal. The RGMC is an enabling technology of the ensemble detector. As a key component for achieving ensemble detection and analysis, the RGMC has broad aeronautical and space applications. The RGMC can be used to test and develop new calibration algorithms, for example, to detect gain anomalies, and/or correct for slow drifts that affect climate-quality measurements over an accelerated time scale. A generalized approach to analyzing radiometer system designs yields a mathematical treatment of noise reference measurements in calibration algorithms. By treating the measurements from the different noise references as ensemble samples of the receiver state, i.e. receiver gain, a quantitative description of the non-stationary properties of the underlying receiver fluctuations can be derived. Excellent agreement has been obtained between model calculations and radiometric measurements. The mathematical formulation is equivalent to modulating the gain of a stable receiver with an externally generated signal and is the basis for ensemble detection and analysis (EDA). The concept of generating ensemble data sets using an ensemble detector is similar to the ensemble data sets generated as part of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with exception of a key distinguishing factor. EEMD adds noise to the signal under study whereas EDA mixes the signal with calibrated noise. It is mixing with calibrated noise that permits the measurement of temporal-functional variability of uncertainty in the underlying process. The RGMC permits the evaluation of EDA by modulating the receiver gain using an external signal. Without the RGMC, samples of calibrated references from radiometers form an ensemble data set of the natural occurring fluctuations within a receiver. By driving the gain of an otherwise stable receiver with an external signal, the conceptual framework and generalization of the mathematics of EDA can be tested. A series of measurements was conducted to evaluate and characterize the performance of the RGMC. Test signals stepped the RGMC across its dynamic range of performance using a radiometer that sampled four noise references; analysis indicates that the RGMC successfully modulated the receiver gain with an external signal. Calibration algorithms applied to four noise references demonstrate the RGMC produced ensemble data sets of the external signal.
EnsembleGraph: Interactive Visual Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Behavior for Ensemble Simulation Data
We present a novel visualization framework—EnsembleGraph— for analyzing ensemble simulation data, in order to help scientists understand behavior similarities between ensemble members over space and time. A graph-based representation is used to visualize individual spatiotemporal regions with similar behaviors, which are extracted by hierarchical clustering algorithms. A user interface with multiple-linked views is provided, which enables users to explore, locate, and compare regions that have similar behaviors between and then users can investigate and analyze the selected regions in detail. The driving application of this paper is the studies on regional emission influences over tropospheric ozone, which is based on ensemble simulations conducted with different anthropogenic emission absences using the MOZART-4 (model of ozone and related tracers, version 4) model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by visualizing the MOZART-4 ensemble simulation data and evaluating the relative regional emission influences on tropospheric ozone concentrations. Positive feedbacks from domain experts and two case studies prove efficiency of our method.
DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters
Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.
Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation
An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.
Laser transit anemometer software development program
Algorithms were developed for the extraction of two components of mean velocity, standard deviation, and the associated correlation coefficient from laser transit anemometry (LTA) data ensembles. The solution method is based on an assumed two-dimensional Gaussian probability density function (PDF) model of the flow field under investigation. The procedure consists of transforming the data ensembles from the data acquisition domain (consisting of time and angle information) to the velocity space domain (consisting of velocity component information). The mean velocity results are obtained from the data ensemble centroid. Through a least squares fitting of the transformed data to an ellipse representing the intersection of a plane with the PDF, the standard deviations and correlation coefficient are obtained. A data set simulation method is presented to test the data reduction process. Results of using the simulation system with a limited test matrix of input values is also given.
Influence of the Biosphere on Precipitation: July 1995 Studies with the ARM-CART Data
Ensemble sets of simulation experiments were conducted with a single column model (SCM) using the Goddard GEOS II GCM physics containing a recent version of the Cumulus Scheme (McRAS) and a biosphere based land-fluxes scheme (SSiB). The study used the 18 July to 5 August 1995 ARM-CART (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement-Cloud Atmospheric Radiation Test-bed) data, which was collected at the ARM-CART site in the mid-western United States and analyzed for single column modeling (SCM) studies. The new findings affirm the earlier findings that the vegetation, which increases the solar energy absorption at the surface together with soil and soil-moisture dependent processes, which modulate the surface, fluxes (particularly evapotranspiration) together help to increase the local rainfall. In addition, the results also show that for the particular study period roughly 50% of the increased evaporation over the ARM-CART site would be converted into rainfall with the Column, while the remainder would be advected out to the large-scale. Notwithstanding the limitations of only one-way interaction (i.e., the large-scale influencing the regional physics and not vice versa), the current SCM simulations show a very robust relationship. The evaporation-precipitation relationship turns out to be independent of the soil types, and soil moisture; however, it is weakly dependent on the vegetation cover because of its surface-albedo effect. Clearly, these inferences are prone to weaknesses of the SCM physics, the assumptions of the large-scale being unaffected by gridscale (SCM-scale) changes in moist processes, and other limitations of the evaluation procedures.
CryoFold: Determining protein structures and data-guided ensembles from cryo-EM density maps
Cryoelectron microscopy requires molecular modeling for refinement of structures. Ensemble models arrive at low free-energy molecular structures, but are computationally expensive and limited to resolving only small proteins. Here, we introduce CryoFold, a pipeline of molecular dynamics simulations that determines ensembles of protein structures by integrating density data of varying sparsity at 3–5 Å resolution with sequence information and coarse-grained topological knowledge of the protein folds. We present six examples, folding proteins between 72 and 2,000 residues, including large membrane and multi-domain systems, and results from two Electron Microscopy Data Bank (EMDB) competitions. Driven by data from a single state, CryoFold discovers ensembles of common low-energy models together with rare low-probability structures that capture the equilibrium distribution of proteins constrained by the density maps. Many of these conformations are experimentally validated and functionally relevant. We arrive at a set of best practices for data-guided protein folding that are controlled using a Python graphical user interface (GUI).
Slycat™ User Manual
Slycat™ is a web-based system for performing data analysis and visualization of potentially large quantities of remote, high-dimensional data. Slycat™ specializes in working with ensemble data. An ensemble is a group of related data sets, which typically consists of a set of simulation runs exploring the same problem space. An ensemble can be thought of as a set of samples within a multi-variate domain, where each sample is a vector whose value defines a point in high-dimensional space. To understand and describe the underlying problem being modeled in the simulations, ensemble analysis looks for shared behaviors and common features across the group of runs. Additionally, ensemble analysis tries to quantify differences found in any members that deviate from the rest of the group. The Slycat™ system integrates data management, scalable analysis, and visualization. Results are viewed remotely on a user’s desktop via commodity web clients using a multi-tiered hierarchy of computation and data storage, as shown in Figure 1. Our goal is to operate on data as close to the source as possible, thereby reducing time and storage costs associated with data movement. Consequently, we are working to develop parallel analysis capabilities that operate on High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, to explore approaches for reducing data size, and to implement strategies for staging computation across the Slycat™ hierarchy. Within Slycat™, data and visual analysis are organized around projects, which are shared by a project team. Project members are explicitly added, each with a designated set of permissions. Although users sign-in to access Slycat™, individual accounts are not maintained. Instead, authentication is used to determine project access. Within projects, Slycat™ models capture analysis results and enable data exploration through various visual representations. Although for scientists each simulation run is a model of real-world phenomena given certain conditions, we use the term model to refer to our modeling of the ensemble data, not the physics. Different model types often provide complementary perspectives on data features when analyzing the same data set. Each model visualizes data at several levels of abstraction, allowing the user to range from viewing the ensemble holistically to accessing numeric parameter values for a single run. Bookmarks provide a mechanism for sharing results, enabling interesting model states to be labeled and saved.
Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model
An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.
The Potential Benefits of Handling Mixture Statistics via a Bi-Gaussian EnKF: Tests With All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances
The meteorological characteristics of cloudy atmospheric columns can be very different from their clear counterparts. Thus, when a forecast ensemble is uncertain about the presence/absence of clouds at a specific atmospheric column (i.e., some members are clear while others are cloudy), that column's ensemble statistics will contain a mixture of clear and cloudy statistics. Such mixtures are inconsistent with the ensemble data assimilation algorithms currently used in numerical weather prediction. Hence, ensemble data assimilation algorithms that can handle such mixtures can potentially outperform currently used algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate the potential benefits of addressing such mixtures through a bi-Gaussian extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (BGEnKF). The BGEnKF is compared against the commonly used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using perfect model observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) with a realistic weather model (the Weather Research and Forecast model). Synthetic all-sky infrared radiance observations are assimilated in this study. In these OSSEs, the BGEnKF outperforms the EnKF in terms of the horizontal wind components, temperature, specific humidity, and simulated upper tropospheric water vapor channel infrared brightness temperatures. This study is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of a Gaussian mixture model EnKF with a realistic weather model. Our results thus motivate future research toward improving numerical Earth system predictions though explicitly handling mixture statistics.
Considerations for Using Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation in NASA-GMAO's Next Reanalysis System
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest reanalysis produced by GMAO, and provides global data spanning the period 1980-present. The atmospheric data assimilation component of MERRA-2 used a 3D-Var scheme, which was operational at the time of its design. Since then, a Hybrid 3D-Var, then a Hybrid 4D-EnVar were implemented, adding an ensemble component to the data assimilation scheme. In this work, we will be examining the benefits of using hybrid ensemble flow-dependent covariances to represent errors and uncertainties in historic periods. Specifically, periods of pre- and post-satellites, as well as periods of active tropical cyclone seasons. Finally, we will also be exploring the use of adaptive localization scales.
Development and Evaluation of an Ensemble‐Based Data Assimilation System for Regional Reanalysis Over the Tibetan Plateau and Surrounding Regions
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Exploring Time-Varying Multivariate Volume Data Using Matrix of Isosurface Similarity Maps
We present a novel visual representation and interface named the matrix of isosurface similarity maps (MISM) for effective exploration of large time-varying multivariate volumetric data sets. MISM synthesizes three types of similarity maps (i.e., self, temporal, and variable similarity maps) to capture the essential relationships among isosurfaces of different variables and time steps. Additionally, it serves as the main visual mapping and navigation tool for examining the vast number of isosurfaces and exploring the underlying time-varying multivariate data set. We present temporal clustering, variable grouping, and interactive filtering to reduce the huge exploration space of MISM. In conjunction with the isovalue and isosurface views, MISM allows users to identify important isosurfaces or isosurface pairs and compare them over space, time, and value range. More importantly, we introduce path recommendation that suggests, animates, and compares traversal paths for effectively exploring MISM under varied criteria and at different levels-of-detail. A silhouette-based method is applied to render multiple surfaces of interest in a visually succinct manner. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with case studies of several time-varying multivariate data sets and an ensemble data set, and evaluate our work with two domain experts.