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Why is height-dependent mixing observed in stratocumulus clouds?

Recent aircraft measurements in stratocumulus clouds suggest that entrainment mixing is inhomogeneous (IM) near cloud top and homogeneous (HM) within the cloud. However, this proposed height-dependence of mixing transition is uncertain because of artifacts involved in the aircraft measurements. In this study, we use the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model to simulate mixing scenarios in stratocumulus clouds and reconstruct the virtual aircraft measurements to investigate the mixing signature. Results show that, from the aircraft-measurement perspective, the mixing signature always exhibits IM characteristic near cloud top and HM characteristic within cloud, independent of the types of the local entrainment-mixing process. The appearance of the vertical IM-to-HM transition is essentially a collective behavior of multiple parcels sampled at the same height, experiencing distinct entrainment-mixing-evaporation histories. This bulk view of mixing process, which is widely used for aircraft measurements, could lead to misinterpretations of the true mixing mechanism occurring in clouds. Our result underscores the limitations of using aircraft measurements to identify the entrainment-mixing mechanism at the process level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational Investigation of the Effect of Turbulence on Microphysics and Precipitation in Warm Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

Abstract Turbulence is omnipresent in the marine boundary layer (MBL) and several mechanisms have been proposed regarding its role on MBL cloud microphysics. In particular, past modeling studies suggested that increasing turbulence broaden the droplet size distribution (DSD) and leads to precipitation initiation, this suggested relationship has not been evaluated yet using long‐term observations. Here, comprehensive retrievals from long‐term ground‐based observations are used to explore the impact of turbulence on microphysics and precipitation in drizzling MBL clouds. Our analysis supports that broader DSD and larger droplets are observed with strong turbulence, but interestingly, the precipitation is reduced instead of being enhanced. This suppression mechanism is mainly due to the entrainment and mixing process in which the entrained dry air evaporates cloud water. This study provides observational evidence to show the complex effect of turbulence on MBL cloud properties and implies the potential influence of turbulence on the clouds lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Convergence of Cloud Droplet Spectral Relative Dispersion During Entrainment‐Mixing Based on Particle‐Resolved Direct Numerical Simulations

Entrainment-mixing processes critically impact cloud microphysical properties, but their effects on the relative dispersion (d) of cloud droplet size distributions (CDSDs) remain elusive. A direct numerical simulation model is initialized with different CDSDs to fill the gap. These results show that d decreases for broad CDSDs and increases for narrow ones, ultimately converging to approximately 0.5 regardless of initial CDSDs during the evaporation-dominated mixing stage. The supersaturation fluctuation and the shape of CDSDs jointly influence the convergence behavior of d. Further sensitivity tests show that the initial microphysical/dynamical/thermodynamical conditions exert negligible effects on the final converged value of d but affect the convergence rate (k). The k generally increases with increasing droplet number concentration and dissipation rate, and increases with decreasing liquid water content, relative humidity of entrained air, and mixing fraction of cloudy air. A conceptual model with two timescales is proposed; k and the timescales are negatively correlated, meaning that slow mixing and/or evaporation process results in slow convergence of d. In conclusion, this finding provides an important reference for improving understanding and parameterization of d during the entrainment-mixing processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Analytic Formula for Entraining CAPE in Midlatitude Storm Environments

Abstract This article introduces an analytic formula for entraining convective available potential energy (ECAPE) with an entrainment rate that is determined directly from an environmental sounding, rather than prescribed by the formula user. Entrainment is connected to the background environment using an eddy diffusivity approximation for lateral mixing, updraft geometry assumptions, and mass continuity. These approximations result in a direct correspondence between the storm-relative flow and the updraft radius and an inverse scaling between the updraft radius squared and entrainment rate. The aforementioned concepts, combined with the assumption of adiabatic conservation of moist static energy, yield an explicit analytic equation for ECAPE that depends entirely on state variables in an atmospheric profile and a few constant parameters with values that are established in past literature. Using a simplified Bernoulli-like equation, the ECAPE formula is modified to account for updraft enhancement via kinetic energy extracted from the cloud’s background environment. CAPE and ECAPE can be viewed as predictors of the maximum vertical velocity w max in an updraft. Hence, these formulas are evaluated using w max from past numerical modeling studies. Both of the new formulas improve predictions of w max substantially over commonly used diagnostic parameters, including undiluted CAPE and ECAPE with a constant prescribed entrainment rate. The formula that incorporates environmental kinetic energy contribution to the updraft correctly predicts instances of exceedance of by w max , and provides a conceptual explanation for why such exceedance is rare among past simulations. These formulas are potentially useful in nowcasting and forecasting thunderstorms and as thunderstorm proxies in climate change studies. Significance Statement Substantial mixing occurs between the upward-moving air currents in thunderstorms (updrafts) and the surrounding comparatively dry environmental air, through a process called entrainment. Entrainment controls thunderstorm intensity via its diluting effect on the buoyancy of air within updrafts. A challenge to representing entrainment in forecasting and predictions of the intensity of updrafts in future climates is to determine how much entrainment will occur in a given thunderstorm environment without a computationally expensive high-resolution simulation. To address this gap, this article derives a new formula that computes entrainment from the properties of a single environmental profile. This formula is shown to predict updraft vertical velocity more accurately than past diagnostics, and can be used in forecasting and climate prediction to improve predictions of thunderstorm behavior and impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comprehensive quantification of height dependence of entrainment mixing between stratiform cloud top and environment

Different entrainment-mixing processes of turbulence are crucial to processes related to clouds; however, only a few qualitative studies have been concentrated on the vertical distributions of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with low vertical resolutions. To quantitatively study vertical profiles of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with a high resolution, the stratiform clouds observed in the Physics of Stratocumulus Top (POST) project are examined. The unique sawtooth flight pattern allows for an examination of the vertical distributions of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with a 5 m vertical resolution. Relative standard deviation of volume mean radius divided by relative standard deviation of liquid water content is introduced to be a new estimation of microphysical homogeneous mixing degree, to overcome difficulties of determining the adiabatic microphysical properties required in existing measures. The vertical profile of this new measure indicates that entrainment-mixing mechanisms become more homogeneous with decreasing altitudes and are consistent with the dynamical measures of Damköhler number and transition scale number. Further analysis shows that the vertical variation of entrainment-mixing mechanisms with decreasing altitudes is due to the increases of turbulent dissipation rate in cloud and relative humidity in droplet-free air and the decrease of size of droplet-free air. The results offer insights into the theoretical understanding and parameterizations of vertical variation of entrainment-mixing mechanisms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Properties and Controlling Processes of Aerosol and Cloud Condensation Nuclei in Marine Boundary Layer Over Eastern North Atlantic (Final Report)

Remote marine low cloud systems have large spatial and temporal coverages. Because of their relatively low optical thickness and background aerosol concentrations, marine low clouds are particularly susceptible to perturbations in aerosols associated with anthropogenic emissions. Recent studies show that a large fraction of the global aerosol indirect forcing can be attributed to changes in marine low clouds, despite their relatively long distance from most anthropogenic sources. Currently, there remain large uncertainties in the magnitude of the global aerosol indirect radiative forcing. One major contribution to this large uncertainty derives from poor understanding of the aerosols under natural conditions, the perturbation by anthropogenic emissions, and the processes that drive them. In this project, we took advantage of the comprehensive, multi-dimensional characterization of meteorological parameters, trace gases, aerosol, cloud, and drizzle fields during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) and the long-term measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island. By synergistically combining in situ measurements, remote sensing retrievals, and model simulations, we quantified aerosol properties in the ENA, their vertical profiles, and variations with season, synoptic state, and airmass. We investigated key aerosol processes, including entrainment of free troposphere aerosol into marine boundary layer, new particle formation, growth of Aitken mode particles, and the influences of these processes on the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) population in marine boundary layer. The representation of key aerosol processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was evaluated using the observations. This project has led to 26 publications, which are listed at the end of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Consideration of Initial Cloud Droplet Size Distribution Shapes in Quantifying Different Entrainment-Mixing Mechanisms

Entrainment-mixing process significantly affects cloud micro/macrophysics and the evaluation of aerosol indirect effects. However, it remains an open question as to how to quantify entrainment-mixing mechanism for broad cloud droplet size distributions (CDSDs). Here, CDSDs with different spectral widths are used to initialize the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model to address this problem, and microphysical properties are compared for different CDSD widths. For relatively broad CDSDs, as the number concentration and liquid water content decrease, the volume-mean radius and mean radius increase, which is opposite to the scenario for relatively narrow CDSDs and the homogeneous/inhomogeneous conceptual model. For the relatively broad CDSDs, such relationships could be mistaken as inhomogeneous mixing with subsequent ascent in analysis of the conventional microphysical mixing diagram. This then causes traditional homogenous mixing degrees to be unrealistically negative and not applicable for relatively broad CDSDs. New measures are introduced to explicitly account for the effect of CDSD spectral shapes on quantifying entrainment-mixing mechanism. The new measures yield reasonable ranges of values that conform to the dynamical measures such as the Damköhler and transitional scale numbers, and their temporal variation can be explained physically. This study extends the measures of homogeneous mixing degrees from narrow to broad CDSDs, and sheds new light on the consideration of CDSD shapes in parameterizations of entrainment-mixing mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influences of an entrainment–mixing parameterization on numerical simulations of cumulus and stratocumulus clouds

Abstract. Different entrainment–mixing processes can occur in clouds; however, a homogeneous mixing mechanism is often implicitly assumed in most commonly used microphysics schemes. Here, we first present a new entrainment–mixing parameterization that uses the grid mean relative humidity without requiring the relative humidity of the entrained air. Then, the parameterization is implemented in a microphysics scheme in a large eddy simulation model, and sensitivity experiments are conducted to compare the new parameterization with the default homogeneous entrainment–mixing parameterization. The results indicate that the new entrainment–mixing parameterization has a larger impact on the number concentration, volume mean radius, and cloud optical depth in the stratocumulus case than in the cumulus case. This is because inhomogeneous and homogeneous mixing mechanisms dominate in the stratocumulus and cumulus cases, respectively, which is mainly due to the larger turbulence dissipation rate in the cumulus case. Because stratocumulus clouds break up during the dissipation stage to form cumulus clouds, the effects of this new entrainment–mixing parameterization during the stratocumulus dissipation stage are between those during the stratocumulus mature stage and the cumulus case. A large aerosol concentration can enhance the effects of this new entrainment–mixing parameterization by decreasing the cloud droplet size and evaporation timescale. The results of this new entrainment–mixing parameterization with grid mean relative humidity are validated by the use of a different entrainment–mixing parameterization that uses parameterized entrained air properties. This study sheds new light on the improvement of entrainment–mixing parameterizations in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cumulonimbus Clouds Convert a Smaller Fraction of CAPE into Kinetic Energy in a Warmer Atmosphere

Abstract This study investigates how entrainment’s diluting effect on cumulonimbus updraft buoyancy is affected by the temperature of the troposphere, which is expected to increase by the end of the century. A parcel model framework is constructed that allows for independent variations in the temperature ( T ), the entrainment rate ε , the free-tropospheric relative humidity (RH), and the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Using this framework, dilution of buoyancy is evaluated with T and RH independently varied and with CAPE either held constant or increased with temperature. When CAPE is held constant, buoyancy decreases as T increases, with parcels in warmer environments realizing substantially smaller fractions of their CAPE as kinetic energy (KE). This occurs because the increased moisture difference between an updraft and its surroundings at warmer temperatures drives greater updraft dilution. Similar results are found in midlatitude and tropical conditions when CAPE is increased with temperature. With the expected 6%–7% increase in CAPE per kelvin of warming, KE only increases at 2%–4% K −1 in narrow updrafts but tracks more closely with CAPE at 4%–6% in wider updrafts. Interestingly, the rate of increase in the KE with T becomes larger than that of CAPE when the later quantity increases at more than 10% K −1 . These findings emphasize the importance of considering entrainment in studies of moist convection’s response to climate change, as the entrainment-driven dilution of buoyancy may partially counteract the influence of increases in CAPE on updraft intensity. Significance Statement Cumulonimbus clouds mix air with their surrounding environment through a process called entrainment, which controls how efficiently environmental energy is converted into upward speed in thunderstorm updrafts. Our research shows that warmer temperatures will exacerbate the moisture difference between cumulonimbus updrafts and their surroundings, leading to greater mixing and less efficient conversion of environmental energy into updraft speeds. This effect should be considered in future research that investigates how climate change will affect cumulonimbus clouds.

Peters, John M.↗

A two-fluid single-column model of turbulent shallow convection. Part II: Single-column model formulation and numerics

The two-fluid single-column model of Thuburn et al. (Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 2019, 145, 1535–1550) is extended to include moisture and horizontal wind shear. Turbulent kinetic energy is introduced as a prognostic variable, dependence on a diagnosed boundary-layer height is removed, and subfilter fluxes are approximated using a two-fluid version of a Mellor–Yamada scheme. Three mechanisms for entrainment and detrainment processes are introduced, which represent entrainment of unstable air at the surface, forced detrainment of air at the top of the boundary/cloud layers, and turbulent mixing that relaxes the convective fluid to a reference profile. A semi-implicit Eulerian discretization replaces the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian implementation of Thuburn et al. (Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 2019, 145, 1535–1550) to improve numerical stability and conservation. The equations for the implicit time step are solved using a quasi-Newton method, which is shown to perform well in numerical tests for conservation and convergence. The two-fluid single-column model presented in this article will be applied to simulations of shallow cumulus convection in Part III.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of Environment on Post-Detonation Chemistry and Debris Formation (Abbreviated Final Report: 20-SI-006)

Predicting, responding to, or interpreting the chemical record preserved in debris derived from nuclear events can be challenging due to chemical fractionation. Chemical fractionation is where different species of the evolving radionuclide inventory segregate and/or are lost from the system over the timescales of debris formation. Both historic data and recent research suggest that the interaction and character of the local environment may exert controls on chemical fractionation by influencing the cooling and evolution of the associated fireball as well as the composition of the vapor term and resultant speciation. Prior to this work, an integrated platform permitting dynamic and concurrent consideration of physical and chemical evolution of early time post-detonation event environments did not exist. Our work merged historic data and experimental approaches to support development of a computational framework able to simulate fundamental processes (e.g., entrainment of local environment, oxidation chemistry, and cooling time scales) that may perturb the radionuclide inventory captured in post-detonation debris. Work with historic debris confirmed that entrained environmental material affect debris composition, structure, and radionuclide incorporation. Complementary work utilizing a readily controllable and tunable benchtop setup (a plasma flow reactor) simulated the late cooling of a nuclear fireball (e.g., T < 6000 K) and bounded the sensitivity of actinide speciation and particle size distribution to variations in oxygen concentration and cooling rates. Concurrent laser ablation and laser heating experiments were used to investigate the chemistry and physics of processes occurring in vaporized and/or rapidly heated actinides and other elements in the presence of oxygen. A more computationally efficient microphysical model was developed for predicting and evolving size distributions of particles forming from mixed vapor terms and simulating particle formation processes under a variety of extreme conditions. Continued study of historic nuclear event film confirmed that shockwave data and physics codes agree to within the uncertainty of the data. Good agreement was achieved for thermal emission from an airburst, however the paucity of low-temperature molecular opacity data for mixtures of air, bomb debris, entrained dirt, and water vapor complicate agreement for more elaborate scenarios. A multiphysics code (ALE3D) was modified to bring the necessary physics and chemistry, including these new data and insights, onto a single platform. Code development included improved initialization of large physical systems, modernization of chemistry capabilities, and modifications to enable inclusion of particle transport.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Parameterization and Explicit Modeling of Cloud Microphysics: Approaches, Challenges, and Future Directions

Cloud microphysical processes occur at the smallest end of scales among cloud-related processes and thus must be parameterized not only in large-scale global circulation models (GCMs) but also in various higher-resolution limited-area models such as cloud-resolving models (CRMs) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models. Instead of giving a comprehensive review of existing microphysical parameterizations that have been developed over the years, this study concentrates purposely on several topics that we believe are understudied but hold great potential for further advancing bulk microphysics parameterizations: multi-moment bulk microphysics parameterizations and the role of the spectral shape of hydrometeor size distributions; discrete vs “continuous” representation of hydrometeor types; turbulence-microphysics interactions including turbulent entrainment-mixing processes and stochastic condensation; theoretical foundations for the mathematical expressions used to describe hydrometeor size distributions and hydrometeor morphology; and approaches for developing bulk microphysics parameterizations. Also presented are the spectral bin scheme and particle-based scheme (especially, super-droplet method) for representing explicit microphysics. Their advantages and disadvantages are elucidated for constructing cloud models with detailed microphysics that are essential to developing processes understanding and bulk microphysics parameterizations. Particle-resolved direct numerical simulation (DNS) models are described as an emerging technique to investigate turbulence-microphysics interactions at the most fundamental level by tracking individual particles and resolving the smallest turbulent eddies in turbulent clouds. Outstanding challenges and future research directions are explored as well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Is There a Scalar Atmospheric Surface Layer Within a Convective Boundary Layer? Implications for Flux Measurements

Top‐down entrainment shapes the vertical gradients of sensible heat, latent heat, and CO 2 fluxes, influencing the interpretation of eddy covariance (EC) measurements in the unstable atmospheric surface layer (ASL). Using large eddy simulations for convective boundary layer flows, we demonstrate that decreased temperature gradients across the entrainment zone increase entrainment fluxes by enhancing the entrainment velocity, amplifying the asymmetry between top‐down and bottom‐up flux contributions. These changes alter scalar flux profiles, causing flux divergence or convergence and leading to the breakdown of the constant flux layer assumption (CFLA) in the ASL. As a result, EC‐measured fluxes either underestimate or overestimate “true” surface fluxes during divergence or convergence phases, contributing to energy balance non‐closure. The varying degrees of the CFLA breakdown are a fundamental cause for the non‐closure issue. These findings highlight the underappreciated role of entrainment in interpreting EC fluxes, addressing non‐closure, and understanding site‐to‐site variability in flux measurements.

eddy covariance fluxes of scalars↗

Sensitivity of organized convective storms to model grid spacing in current and future climates

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are complexes of thunderstorms that become organized and cover hundreds of kilometres over several hours. MCSs are prolific rain producers in the tropics and mid-latitudes and are the major cause of warm-season flooding. Traditionally, climate models have difficulties in simulating MCSs partly due to the misrepresentation of complex process interactions that operate across a large range of scales. Significant improvements in simulating MCSs have been found in kilometre-scale models that explicitly simulate deep convection. However, these models operate in the grey zone of turbulent motion and have known deficiencies in simulating small-scale processes (e.g. entrainment, vertical mass transport). Here, we perform mid-latitude idealized ensemble MCS simulations under current and future climate conditions in three atmospheric regimes: hydrostatic (12 km horizontal grid spacing; Δx), non-hydrostatic (Δx = 4, 2 and 1 km) and large eddy scale (Δx = 500 m and 250 m). Our results show a dramatic improvement in simulating MCS precipitation, movement, cold pools, and cloud properties when transitioning from 12 km to 4 km Δx. Decreasing Δx beyond 4 km results in modest improvements except for up- and downdraft sizes, average vertical mass fluxes, and cloud top height and temperature, which continue to change. Most important for climate modelling is that Δx = 4 km simulations reliably capture most MCS climate change signals compared to those of the Δx = 250 m runs. Significantly different climate change signals are found in Δx = 12 km runs that overestimate extreme precipitation changes by up to 100%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationships between Cloud Droplet Spectral Relative Dispersion and Entrainment Rate and Their Impacting Factors

Cloud microphysical properties are significantly affected by entrainment and mixing processes. However, it is unclear how the entrainment rate affects the relative dispersion of cloud droplet size distribution. Previously, the relationship between relative dispersion and entrainment rate was found to be positive or negative. To reconcile the contrasting relationships, the Explicit Mixing Parcel Model is used to determine the underlying mechanisms. When evaporation is dominated by small droplets, and the entrained environmental air is further saturated during mixing, the relationship is negative. However, when the evaporation of big droplets is dominant, the relationship is positive. Whether or not the cloud condensation nuclei are considered in the entrained environmental air is a key factor as condensation on the entrained condensation nuclei is the main source of small droplets. However, if cloud condensation nuclei are not entrained, the relationship is positive. If cloud condensation nuclei are entrained, the relationship is dependent on many other factors. High vertical velocity, relative humidity of environmental air, liquid water content, and low droplet number concentration are more likely to cause the negative relationship since new saturation is easier to achieve by evaporation of small droplets. Further, the signs of the relationship are not strongly affected by the turbulence dissipation rate, but the higher dissipation rate causes the positive relationship more significant for a larger entrainment rate. A conceptual model is proposed to reconcile the contrasting relationships. This work enhances the understanding of relative dispersion and lays a foundation for the quantification of entrainment-mixing mechanisms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laboratory Investigations of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in an Entraining, Turbulent Environment (Final Technical Report)

The effects that aerosol particles have on clouds in Earth’s atmosphere and the role that clouds play in determining the fate of aerosol particles play a crucial role in determining the human experience on this planet. These interwoven interactions can determine whether it rains or snows, is comfortable, hot or cold, or whether the cloud you gaze at in the sky looks like a tiger or a lump of porridge. How clouds mix with the air surrounding them, a process known as entrainment, further affects these processes. We conducted laboratory experiments of aerosol-cloud interactions in a setting in which we can measure the effects of entrainment – the first laboratory experiments since the pioneering work of Latham and Reed in 1977. We measured the effects of entrainment on aerosol-cloud interactions in the Pi Chamber and also used a state-of-the-art large eddy simulation (LES) to investigate processes in fine detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Near-Cloud Atmospheric Ingredients for Deep Convection Initiation

A lack of routine environmental observations located near deepening cumulus congestus clouds limits verification of important theorized and simulated updraft–environment interaction processes occurring during deep convection initiation (CI). We analyze radiosonde profiles collected during several hundred CI events near a mountain range in central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign. Statistical analyses illustrate environmental conditions supporting radar-observed CI outcomes that span a spectrum of convective cell depths, widths, and durations, as well as events lacking precipitating convection. Tested environmental factors include a large variety of sounding-derived measurements of CAPE, CIN, moisture, terrain-relative winds, vertical shear, and lifted parcel properties, with supplemental model reanalysis of background larger-scale vertical motion. CAPE and CIN metrics do not consistently differentiate CI success from failure. Only a few environmental factors contain consistent monotonic relationships among the spectrum of cloud depths achieved during CI: (i) the depth and strength of background ascent, and (ii) the component of low-level flow oriented parallel to the ridgeline. These metrics suggest that the ability of the surrounding flow to lift parcels to their LFC and terrain-modified flow are consistently relevant processes for CI. Low- to midlevel relative humidity strongly discriminated between CI and non-CI events, likely reflecting entrainment-driven dilution processes. However, we could not confidently conclude that relative humidity similarly discriminated robust from marginal CI events. Circumstantial evidence was found linking cell width, an important cloud property governing the probability of CI, to LCL height, boundary layer depth, depth and magnitude of the CIN layer, and ambient wind shear.

Storm environments↗