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Highlights of TOMS Version 9 Total Ozone Algorithm

The fundamental basis of TOMS total ozone algorithm was developed some 45 years ago by Dave and Mateer. It was designed to estimate total ozone from satellite measurements of the backscattered UV radiances at few discrete wavelengths in the Huggins ozone absorption band (310-340 nm). Over the years, as the need for higher accuracy in measuring total ozone from space has increased, several improvements to the basic algorithms have been made. They include: better correction for the effects of aerosols and clouds, an improved method to account for the variation in shape of ozone profiles with season, latitude, and total ozone, and a multi-wavelength correction for remaining profile shape errors. These improvements have made it possible to retrieve total ozone with just 3 spectral channels of moderate spectral resolution (approx. 1 nm) with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art spectral fitting algorithms like DOAS that require high spectral resolution measurements at large number of wavelengths. One of the deficiencies of the TOMS algorithm has been that it doesn't provide an error estimate. This is a particular problem in high latitudes when the profile shape errors become significant and vary with latitude, season, total ozone, and instrument viewing geometry. The primary objective of the TOMS V9 algorithm is to account for these effects in estimating the error bars. This is done by a straightforward implementation of the Rodgers optimum estimation method using a priori ozone profiles and their error covariances matrices constructed using Aura MLS and ozonesonde data. The algorithm produces a vertical ozone profile that contains 1-2.5 pieces of information (degrees of freedom of signal) depending upon solar zenith angle (SZA). The profile is integrated to obtain the total column. We provide information that shows the altitude range in which the profile is best determined by the measurements. One can use this information in data assimilation and analysis. A side benefit of this algorithm is that it is considerably simpler than the present algorithm that uses a database of 1512 profiles to retrieve total ozone. These profiles are tedious to construct and modify. Though conceptually similar to the SBUV V8 algorithm that was developed about a decade ago, the SBUV and TOMS V9 algorithms differ in detail. The TOMS algorithm uses 3 wavelengths to retrieve the profile while the SBUV algorithm uses 6-9 wavelengths, so TOMS provides less profile information. However both algorithms have comparable total ozone information and TOMS V9 can be easily adapted to use additional wavelengths from instruments like GOME, OMI and OMPS to provide better profile information at smaller SZAs. The other significant difference between the two algorithms is that while the SBUV algorithm has been optimized for deriving monthly zonal means by making an appropriate choice of the a priori error covariance matrix, the TOMS algorithm has been optimized for tracking short-term variability using month and latitude dependent covariance matrices.

Bhartia, Pawan

Ozone intercomparisons from the Balloon Intercomparison Campaign

Intercomparisons of remote and in-situ techniques used to measure stratospheric ozone are made using results obtained on the Balloon Intercomparison Campaign of 1982 and 1983. Two in-situ and four remote instruments participated. These included ECC ozonesondes, a UV absorption photometer, and microwave emission, IR emission, and absorption spectrometers. Differences are generally less than 15 percent, and are within the quoted error bars. Flights which involved different sets of instruments were made on four separate days, and results are intercompared in plots of ozone density versus altitude. A careful assessment of errors was made for each instrument, and a plot of absolute errors versus altitude is given.

Robbins, D.

Influence of 3D Radiative Effects on Satellite Retrievals of Cloud Properties

When cloud properties are retrieved from satellite observations, the calculations apply 1D theory to the 3D world: they only consider vertical structures and ignore horizontal cloud variability. This presentation discusses how big the resulting errors can be in the operational retrievals of cloud optical thickness. A new technique was developed to estimate the magnitude of potential errors by analyzing the spatial patterns of visible and infrared images. The proposed technique was used to set error bars for optical depths retrieved from new MODIS measurements. Initial results indicate that the 1 km resolution retrievals are subject to abundant uncertainties. Averaging over 50 by 50 km areas reduces the errors, but does not remove them completely; even in the relatively simple case of high sun (30 degree zenith angle), about a fifth of the examined areas had biases larger than ten percent. As expected, errors increase substantially for more oblique illumination.

Varnai, Tamas

VLBI tracking of the TDRS

The use of radio interferometry is being investigated by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center as a means to track the TDRS geostationary satellites. This technique offers the advantages of very high accuracy using a ground network confined to the continental U.S. and minimal (or no) impact on spacecraft systems as the downlink transmissions can be used passively. A demonstration experiment was performed using very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). The TDRS-E was observed at S-band over a 28-hour definitive period together with dual X/S-band calibration observations of quasars. An orbit was determined for TDRS-E which agrees within estimated error bars with the orbit solution from NASA's operational tracking system but with about half the uncertainty. It was found that, for S-band tracking, the ionosphere is the largest source of orbit error. Use of Ku-band tracking instead would permit geostationary orbits accurate at the 10-m level.

Ray, J.

Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This proposal describes an approach to validate the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft. The research described here is absolutely cutting edge. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional"validation by test only'' mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computationaf Fluid Dynamics can be used to veritY these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. The proposed research project includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT and OPEN FOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid . . . Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. To date, the author is the only person to look at the uncertainty in the entire computational domain. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, threedimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Groves, Curtis E.

Dissertation Defense Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional "validation by test only" mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions. Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in "Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations". This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System /spacecraft system. Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

CFD

Dissertation Defense: Computational Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Analysis for Payload Fairing Spacecraft Environmental Control Systems

Spacecraft thermal protection systems are at risk of being damaged due to airflow produced from Environmental Control Systems. There are inherent uncertainties and errors associated with using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict the airflow field around a spacecraft from the Environmental Control System. This paper describes an approach to quantify the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to predict airflow speeds around an encapsulated spacecraft without the use of test data. Quantifying the uncertainty in analytical predictions is imperative to the success of any simulation-based product. The method could provide an alternative to traditional validation by test only mentality. This method could be extended to other disciplines and has potential to provide uncertainty for any numerical simulation, thus lowering the cost of performing these verifications while increasing the confidence in those predictions.Spacecraft requirements can include a maximum airflow speed to protect delicate instruments during ground processing. Computational Fluid Dynamics can be used to verify these requirements; however, the model must be validated by test data. This research includes the following three objectives and methods. Objective one is develop, model, and perform a Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis of three (3) generic, non-proprietary, environmental control systems and spacecraft configurations. Several commercially available and open source solvers have the capability to model the turbulent, highly three-dimensional, incompressible flow regime. The proposed method uses FLUENT, STARCCM+, and OPENFOAM. Objective two is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the Computational Fluid Dynamics model using the methodology found in Comprehensive Approach to Verification and Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations. This method requires three separate grids and solutions, which quantify the error bars around Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions. The method accounts for all uncertainty terms from both numerical and input variables. Objective three is to compile a table of uncertainty parameters that could be used to estimate the error in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model of the Environmental Control System spacecraft system.Previous studies have looked at the uncertainty in a Computational Fluid Dynamics model for a single output variable at a single point, for example the re-attachment length of a backward facing step. For the flow regime being analyzed (turbulent, three-dimensional, incompressible), the error at a single point can propagate into the solution both via flow physics and numerical methods. Calculating the uncertainty in using Computational Fluid Dynamics to accurately predict airflow speeds around encapsulated spacecraft in is imperative to the success of future missions.

Fluid Dynamics

Surface Reflectance of Mars Observed by CRISM-MRO: 1. Multi-angle Approach for Retrieval of Surface Reflectance from CRISM Observations (mars-reco)

This article addresses the correction for aerosol effects in near-simultaneous multiangle observations acquired by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. In the targeted mode, CRISM senses the surface of Mars using 11 viewing angles, which allow it to provide unique information on the scattering properties of surface materials. In order to retrieve these data, however, appropriate strategies must be used to compensate the signal sensed by CRISM for aerosol contribution. This correction is particularly challenging as the photometric curve of these suspended particles is often correlated with the also anisotropic photometric curve of materials at the surface. This article puts forward an innovative radiative transfer based method named Multi-angle Approach for Retrieval of Surface Reflectance from CRISM Observations (MARS-ReCO). The proposed method retrieves photometric curves of surface materials in reflectance units after removing aerosol contribution. MARS-ReCO represents a substantial improvement regarding previous techniques as it takes into consideration the anisotropy of the surface, thus providing more realistic surface products. Furthermore, MARS-ReCO is fast and provides error bars on the retrieved surface reflectance. The validity and accuracy of MARS-ReCO is explored in a sensitivity analysis based on realistic synthetic data. According to experiments, MARS-ReCO provides accurate results (up to 10 reflectance error) under favorable acquisition conditions. In the companion article, photometric properties of Martian materials are retrieved using MARS-ReCO and validated using in situ measurements acquired during the Mars Exploration Rovers mission.

CRISM/MRO

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part III: Simulated Observables - The Return of the Spectrum

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-le and, subsequently its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI so far: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (part II). Here, we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5-σ detection of CO2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO2. That number can vary by 41- 56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of ~ 50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the inter-transit variability induced by weather patterns and changes of terminator cloudiness between transits. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES).

Exoplanet atmospheres

Results from observations of the 15 June 1983 occultation by the Neptune system

Observations of eight Neptune occultations from six sites in the southwestern Pacific on June 15, 1983. The data were used to search for evidence of rings around Neptune down to a distance of 0.03 Neptune radii from the planetary surface, but the results were negative. An astrometric analysis of the timings yielded solution for the equatorial radius a(0) of Neptune at 1 microbar pressure and the oblatness e at this level. The results are: a(0) = 25,295 + or - 50 km; e = 0.022 + or - 0.004, from which a value for a(1) (equatorial radius at 1 bar pressure) of 24,830 + or - 100 km; and a rotation period of P = 15 h (+3, -2 h) is derived. These results are based on a recent determination of Neptune's pole position and mass quadruple moment, and are consistent with the hypothesis that Neptune and Uranus have homologous mass distributions, although the constraint on interior structure is a weak one. If the probable uncertainty of the pole position is taken into account, error bars on e and derived quantities should be increased by about 50 percent. The present determinations of Neptune atmospheric temperatures at 1 microbar are consistent with earlier results and when combined with all previous data give an average value of 156 + or - 10 K. There is only slight evidence for any latitude dependence in the temperatures. Profiles with a high signal-to-noise ratio suggest the possible presence of an absorbing layer at altitudes higher than the 1-microbar level.

Hubbard, W. B.

A Treatment of Measurements of Heptane Droplet Combustion Aboard MSL-1

Results of measurements on the burning of free n-heptane droplets (that is, droplets without fiber supports) performed in Spacelab during the flights of the first Microgravity Science Laboratory (MSL-1) are presented. The droplet combustion occurred in oxidizing atmospheres which were at an ambient temperature within a few degrees of 300 K. A total of 34 droplets were burned in helium-oxygen atmospheres having oxygen mole fractions ranging from 20 to 50 percent, at pressures from 0.25 to 1.00 bar. In addition, four droplets were burned in air at 1.00 bar, bringing the total number of droplets for which combustion data were secured to 38; two of these four air tests were fiber-supported to facilitate comparisons with other fiber-support experiments, results of which also are given here. Initial diameters of free droplets ranged from about 1 to 4 mm. The primary data obtained were histories of droplet diameters, recorded in backlight on 35 mm film at 80 frames per second, and histories of flame diameters, inferred from emissions through a narrow-band interference filter centered at the 310 micron OH chemiluminescent ultraviolet band, recorded at 30 frames per second by a intensified-array camera. These data are reported here both in raw form and in a smoothed form with estimated error bars. In addition, summaries are presented of measured burning-rate constants, final droplet diameters, and final flame diameters. Both diffusive and radiative extinctions were exhibited under different conditions. Although some interpretations are reported and conclusions drawn concerning the combustion mechanisms, the principal intent of this report is to provide a complete, documented data set for future analysis.

Ackerman, M. D.

SAGE 2-Umkehr case study of ozone differences and aerosol effects from October 1984 to April 1989

A comparison of 1262 cases of coincident ozone profiles derived from 666 Umkehrs at 17 different stations and 901 SAGE 2 profiles within 1000 km and 12 hours between October 1984 and April 1989 indicates the following layer percentage differences with 2-sigma error bars: layer three 14.6 plus/minus 3.3 percent, layer four 17.6 plus/minus 1.1 percent, layer five -1.3 plus/minus 0.5 percent, layer six -5.7 plus/minus 0.7 percent, layer seven -1.0 plus/minus 0.7 percent, layer eight 4.2 plus/minus 0.7 percent, and layer nine 6.8 plus/minus 1.2 percent. Comparing SAGE 2-Umkehr differences to SAGE 1 version 5.5-Umkehr differences shows SAGE 2 higher than or equal to SAGE 1 relative to Umkehr in all layers except layer three. Adjustment for this bias would produce trends derived from SAGE 2-SAGE 1 differences and Umkehr observations in the 1980s more nearly equal to each other in layers six, seven, and eight. A possible explanation of these differences is a systematic shift in the reference altitude between SAGE 1 and SAGE 2, but there is no independent evidence of this. While the shape of the vertical profile of differences at 17 individual Umkehr stations (mostly in mid-latitudes) is generally consistent at all stations except at Poker Flat, Seoul, and Lauder, significant variation does exists among the stations. The profile of mean difference is similar to previously observed differences between Umkehr and both SAGE 2 and SBUV and also to an eigenvector analysis, but with site-dependent amplitude discrepancies. Because of the close correspondence of stratospheric aerosol optical depth at the SAGE 2-measured 0.525 micron wavelength and the extrapolated 0.32 Umkehr wavelength determined in this study, we use the 0.525 micron data to determine the aerosol effect of Umkehr profiles. The aerosol errors to the Umkehr ozone amounts in percent ozone amount per 0.01 stratospheric aerosol optical depth range from plus 2 percent in layer six to minus 3 percent in layer nine. These results agree with previous theoretical and empirical studies within their respective error bounds in layers nine, eight, and five. The result in layer six differs significantly from previous works. In view of the fact that SAGE 2 and Umkehr produce different ozone retrievals in layers eight and nine and because the intra-layer correlation of SAGE 2 ozone and aerosol in layers eight and nine in non-zero, one must exercise some caution in attributing the entire SAGE 2-Umkehr differences in the upper layers to an aerosol effect.

Newchurch, M. J.

Density accuracy from the accelerometer inflatable falling sphere.

Computed error bars are added to the upper-air density measurements of January 31, 1969, at Wallops Island, Virginia, reported by Faucher and Morrissey. A triaxial accelerometer-instrumented inflated falling sphere was used for the measurements. Bases for the computation are presented. The conclusions of Faucher and Morrissey are substantiated to about 100 km if comparable uncertainty in each of the five soundings reported is assumed.

Staffanson, F. L.

Studies of cluster X-ray sources, energy spectra for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters

Final Uhuru X-ray differential-energy spectra are presented for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters. Power-law and isothermal bremsstrahlung model spectra with low-energy cutoffs are given, and the energy-dependent Gaunt factor is calculated for the bremsstrahlung. The spectra, which are best fits to the Uhuru data between 2 and 10 keV, are compared with previous observations of these sources in the energy range from 0.1 to 100 keV. The problem of parameter estimation is discussed, error bars with 68% confidence are given for the independently determined slope and cutoff parameters, and the 68% confidence limits are plotted for the fitted spectral functions. The data for Perseus above 20 keV marginally favor the bremsstrahlung fit, those for Virgo between 0.25 and 1.0 keV clearly favor that curve, and those for Coma indicate a low-energy turnover or cutoff. Implications of such a cutoff are briefly discussed.

Kellogg, E.

The abundance of deuterium relative to hydrogen in interstellar space

Copernicus satellite observations of the deuterium and hydrogen Lyman lines in the lines of sight to mu COl, gamma-2 Vel, alpha Cru AB, and alpha Vir AB are reported. Together with previously published data for beta Cen A, the results yield a value N(D)/N(H) of approximately 0.000018 (m.e.) or a total deuterium mass portion of approximately 0.000025. Values for all stars with their error bars are contained within a band ranging from 0.25 to 2.0 times the quoted mean ratio. These limits are probably representative of the region within 200 pc of the sun. The results for these stars are essentially independent of assumptions about the Doppler parameter describing the formation of the lines, although this value can be derived from the observations. The results are consistent with a maximum temperature of 6000 K for the lines of sight studied.

York, D. G.

Microwave properties of ice from The Great Lakes

The increasing use of radar systems as remote sensors of ice thickness has revealed a lack of basic data on the microwave properties of fresh-water ice. A program, in which the complex dielectric constant was measured for a series of ice samples taken from the Great Lakes, is described. The measurements were taken at temperatures of -5, -10, and -15 C. It is noted that the ice has considerable internal layered structure, and the effects of the layering are examined. Values of 3.0 to 3.2 are reported for the real part of the dielectric constant, with an error bar of + or - 0.01.

Vickers, R. S.

Solar Activities Predictions: Long-Term Solar Activity

The need for long term solar activity predictions is addressed. The spatial organization of solar activity is described including applications for predictions, and ancient evidence for solar variability. Methods of predicting sunspot numbers are discussed. The inherent accuracy of the methods varies considerably, but a typical error bar 20%. The accuracy of sunspot cycle predictions is considered along with long term predictions of great solar events.

P S Mcintosh