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Results for “estimating guidelines”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

An approach to software cost estimation

A general procedure for software cost estimation in any environment is outlined. The basic concepts of work and effort estimation are explained, some popular resource estimation models are reviewed, and the accuracy of source estimates is discussed. A software cost prediction procedure based on the experiences of the Software Engineering Laboratory in the flight dynamics area and incorporating management expertise, cost models, and historical data is described. The sources of information and relevant parameters available during each phase of the software life cycle are identified. The methodology suggested incorporates these elements into a customized management tool for software cost prediction. Detailed guidelines for estimation in the flight dynamics environment developed using this methodology are presented.

Mcgarry, F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct Quantification of Heat Generation Due to Inelastic Scattering of Electrons Using a Nanocalorimeter

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is arguably the most important tool for atomic-scale material characterization. A significant portion of the energy of transmitted electrons is transferred to the material under study through inelastic scattering, causing inadvertent damage via ionization, radiolysis, and heating. In particular, heat generation complicates TEM observations as the local temperature can affect material properties. Here, the heat generation due to electron irradiation is quantified using both top-down and bottom-up approaches: direct temperature measurements using nanowatt calorimeters as well as the quantification of energy loss due to inelastic scattering events using electron energy loss spectroscopy. Combining both techniques, a microscopic model is developed for beam-induced heating and to identify the primary electron-to-heat conversion mechanism to be associated with valence electrons. Building on these results, the model provides guidelines to estimate temperature rise for general materials with reasonable accuracy. This study extends the ability to quantify thermal impact on materials down to the atomic scale.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

THERMAL ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF SELF-HEATING MOLDS USING LARGE-SCALE ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING FOR OUT-OF-AUTOCLAVE APPLICATIONS

Autoclave processing is a commonly used state-of-the-art fiber-reinforced composite manufacturing technology, albeit high capital cost, long cycle times and high energy consumption. Alternatively, out-of-autoclave processing reduces the initial and operating costs while producing composite structures with similar quality as that of autoclave parts. Additive Manufacturing (AM) the scaled-up molds for out-of-autoclave process using carbon fiber (CF) reinforced composite offers design flexibility, enhanced mechanical, and thermal properties in addition to reduction in weight and cost. However, heating of these molds using an oven is still expensive and necessitates an energy-efficient heating process. In this study, resistive heating through heating elements embedded within fiber reinforced composite molds is used as an efficient heating mechanism. The goal is to design wire embeddings and determine the optimal heat flux density to achieve a target uniform temperature of 1000C across the mold surface. To this end, numerical analyses were performed to evaluate the temperature distribution across the composite mold surface for a given wire placement and mold configuration. Constant thermal properties of the 20 wt.% short CF reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) were used in the thermal analysis. Time taken to reach the steady state temperature was also estimated. Design guidelines for wire embeddings were included to enable efficient manufacturing of fiber-reinforced composites through out-of-autoclave molds.

Pokkalla, Deepak↗
NASA NTRS1978

A Closed Network Queue Model of Underground Coal Mining Production, Failure, and Repair

Underground coal mining system production, failures, and repair cycles were mathematically modeled as a closed network of two queues in series. The model was designed to better understand the technological constraints on availability of current underground mining systems, and to develop guidelines for estimating the availability of advanced mining systems and their associated needs for spares as well as production and maintenance personnel. It was found that: mine performance is theoretically limited by the maintainability ratio, significant gains in availability appear possible by means of small improvements in the time between failures the number of crews and sections should be properly balanced for any given maintainability ratio, and main haulage systems closest to the mine mouth require the most attention to reliability.

Lohman, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Analytical calculation of thickness versus diameter requirements of silicon solar cells

It may be more cost-effective to produce larger diameter silicon Cz solar cells. However, greater thickness is anticipated to be necessary for larger diameter wafers to withstand wafering, cell processing and handling. No material standard for these dimensional requirements is practical or cost-effective for cell manufacturers. The equations relating wafer thickness and diameter were derived by using fracture mechanics analysis. An analytical model was used as a guideline to estimate thickness versus diameter requirements of silicon solar cells in terms of fracture mechanics parameters.

Chen, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

2012 NASA Cost Estimating Handbook Highlights

The major goal is to ensure that appropriate policy is adopted and that best practices are being developed, communicated, and used across the Agency. -- Accomplished by engaging the NASA Cost Estimating Community representatives in the update. Scheduled to be complete by the end of FY 2012. Document has been through 3 detailed reviews across NASA.

cost estimation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

Safety Performance Margin↗
NASA NTRS2017

Field Programmable Gate Array Reliability Analysis Guidelines for Launch Vehicle Reliability Block Diagrams

Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) integrated circuits (IC) are one of the key electronic components in today's sophisticated launch and space vehicle complex avionic systems, largely due to their superb reprogrammable and reconfigurable capabilities combined with relatively low non-recurring engineering costs (NRE) and short design cycle. Consequently, FPGAs are prevalent ICs in communication protocols and control signal commands. This paper will identify reliability concerns and high level guidelines to estimate FPGA total failure rates in a launch vehicle application. The paper will discuss hardware, hardware description language, and radiation induced failures. The hardware contribution of the approach accounts for physical failures of the IC. The hardware description language portion will discuss the high level FPGA programming languages and software/code reliability growth. The radiation portion will discuss FPGA susceptibility to space environment radiation.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗
NASA NTRS2017

Water-Leaving Contribution to Polarized Radiation Field Over Ocean

The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation field from a coupled atmosphere-ocean system (CAOS) includes contributions from the atmosphere, surface, and water body. Atmo-spheric correction of ocean color imagery is to retrieve water-leaving radiance from the TOA measurement, from which ocean bio-optical properties can be obtained. Knowledge of the ab-solute and relative magnitudes of water-leaving signal in the TOA radiation field is important for designing new atmospheric correction algorithms and developing retrieval algorithms for new ocean biogeochemical parameters. In this paper we present a systematic sensitivity study of water-leaving contribution to the TOA radiation field, from 340 nm to 865 nm, with polarization included. Ocean water inherent optical properties are derived from bio-optical models for two kinds of waters, one dominated by phytoplankton (PDW) and the other by non-algae particles (NDW). In addition to elastic scattering, Raman scattering and fluorescence from dissolved organic matter in ocean waters are included. Our sensitivity study shows that the polarized reflectance is minimized for both CAOS and ocean signals in the backscattering half plane, which leads to numerical instability when calculating water leaving relative contribution, the ratio between polarized water leaving and CAOS signals. If the backscattering plane is excluded, the water-leaving polarized signal contributes less than 9% to the TOA polarized reflectance for PDW in the whole spectra. For NDW, the polarized water leaving contribution can be as much as 20% in the wavelength range from 470 to 670 nm. For wavelengths shorter than 452 nm or longer than 865 nm, the water leaving contribution to the TOA polarized reflectance is in general smaller than 5% for NDW. For the TOA total reflectance, the water-leaving contribution has maximum values ranging from 7% to 16% at variable wavelengths from 400 nm to 550 nm from PDW. The water leaving contribution to the TOA total reflectance can be as large as 35%for NDW, which is in general peaked at 550 nm. Both the total and polarized reflectances from water-leaving contributions approach zero in the ultraviolet and near infrared bands. These facts can be used as constraints or guidelines when estimating the water leaving contribution to the TOA reflectance for new atmospheric correction algorithms for ocean color imagery.

inelastic scatterin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quality Guidelines for Energy Systems Studies: Cost Estimation Methodology for NETL Assessments of Power Plant Performance

This paper summarizes the methodology employed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in calculating power plant costs in its techno-economic studies, such as the Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Systems series of reports. It also outlines the approach used to calculate the cost of electricity by which NETL evaluates electric power plants. These metrics and a clear understanding of the methodology used are essential in allowing different power plant technologies to be compared on a similar basis. These guidelines are tailored for power producing plants, although they can be applied to a variety of different revenue generating plants (e.g., coal to liquids, syngas generation, hydrogen).

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Higher than expected N 2 O emissions from soybean crops in the Pampas Region of Argentina: Estimates from DayCent simulations and field measurements

In developing countries, agriculture generally represents a large fraction of GHG emissions reported in National Inventories, and emissions are typically estimated using Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. However, field data and locally adapted simulation models can improve the accuracy of IPCC estimations. In this report we aimed to quantify anthropogenic N2O emissions from croplands of Argentina through field measurements, model simulations and IPCC guidelines. Here we measured N 2 O emissions and their controlling factors in 62 plots of the Pampas Region with corn, soybean and wheat/soybean crops and in unmanaged grasslands. We accounted for gross emissions from crops and background emissions from unmanaged grasslands to calculate net anthropogenic emissions from crops as the difference between them. We calibrated and evaluated the DayCent model and then simulated different weather and management scenarios. Finally, we applied IPCC guidelines to estimate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions at the same plots. The DayCent model accurately simulated annual N 2 O emission for all crops as compared to measured data (RMSE = 1.4 g N ha -1 day -1 ). Measured and simulated emissions in soybean crops were higher than in corn and wheat/soybean crops. Gross N 2 O emissions ranged from 1.4 to 5.1 kg N ha -1 yr -1 for current environmental (soil and weather) and management (crops and fertilizer doses) conditions. Background emissions ranged between 1.1 and 1.3 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , and therefore net anthropogenic emissions ranged from 0.3 to 4.0 kg N ha-1 yr -1 . IPCC Tier 1 emission factors underestimated N2O releases from soybean, that were on average 4.87 times greater when estimated with DayCent and observations (0.53 vs 2.47 and 2.69 kg N ha -1 yr -1 , respectively). On the contrary, IPCC estimates for corn and wheat/soybean crops were similar to modeled and measured values. Our results suggest that N 2 O emissions from the vast 15 million ha of soybean croplands in the Pampas Region may be substantially underestimated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Bayesian Geostatistical Modelling of PM10 and PM2.5 Surface Level Concentrations in Europe Using High-Resolution Satellite-Derived Products

Air quality monitoring across Europe is mainly based on in situ ground stations which are too sparse to accurately assess the exposure effects of air pollution for the entire continent. The demand for precise predictive modelsthat estimate gridded geophysical parameters of ambient air at high spatial resolution has rapidly grown. Here, we investigate the potential of satellite derived products to improve particulate matter (PM) estimates. Bayesiangeostatistical models addressing confounding between the spatial distribution of pollutants and remotely sensed predictors were developed to estimate yearly averages of both, fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM10) surface PM concentrations at 1 sq.km spatial resolution over 46 European countries and were compared to geostatistical, geographically weighted and land-use regression formulations. Rigorous model selection identified the Earth observation data which contribute most to pollutants' estimation. Geostatistical models outperformed the predictive ability of the frequently employed land-use regression. The resulting estimates of PM10 and PM2.5, which represent the main air quality indicators for the urban Sustainable Development Goal, indicate that in 2016, 66.2% of the European population was breathing air above the WHO Air Quality Guidelines thresholds. Our estimates are readily available to policy makers and scientists assessing the effects of long-term exposure to pollution on human and ecosystem health.

Beloconi, Anton↗
NASA NTRS2011

Binomial Test Method for Determining Probability of Detection Capability for Fracture Critical Applications

The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that for a minimum flaw size and all greater flaw sizes, there is 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence (90/95 POD). Directed design of experiments for probability of detection (DOEPOD) has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields estimates of POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing, where signal amplitudes are reduced to Hit-Miss by using a signal threshold Directed DOEPOD uses a nonparametric approach for the analysis or inspection data that does require any assumptions about the particular functional form of a POD function. The DOEPOD procedure identifies, for a given sample set whether or not the minimum requirement of 0.90 probability of detection with 95% confidence is demonstrated for a minimum flaw size and for all greater flaw sizes (90/95 POD). The DOEPOD procedures are sequentially executed in order to minimize the number of samples needed to demonstrate that there is a 90/95 POD lower confidence bound at a given flaw size and that the POD is monotonic for flaw sizes exceeding that 90/95 POD flaw size. The conservativeness of the DOEPOD methodology results is discussed. Validated guidelines for binomial estimation of POD for fracture critical inspection are established.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The costs of introducing new technologies into space systems

A review is conducted of cost-research studies intended to provide guidelines for cost estimates of integrating new technologies into existing satellite systems. Quantitative methods are described for determining the technological state-of-the-art so that proposed programs can be evaluated accurately in terms of their contribution to technological development. The R&D costs associated with the proposed programs are then assessed with attention given to the technological advances. Also incorporated quantifiably are any reductions in the costs of production, operations, and support afforded by the advanced technologies. The proposed model is employed in relation to a satellite sizing and cost study in which a tradeoff between increased R&D costs and reduced production costs is examined. The technology/cost model provides a consistent yardstick for assessing the true relative economic impact of introducing novel techniques and technologies.

Dodson, E. N.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS1993

Biological effects and physics of solar and galactic cosmic radiation, Part B; Proceedings of a NATO Advanced Study Institute on Biological Effects and Physics of Solar and Galactic Cosmic Radiation, Algarve, Portugal, Oct. 13-23, 1991

Since there is an increasing interest in establishing lunar bases and exploring Mars by manned missions, it is important to develop appropriate risk estimates and radiation protection guidelines. The biological effects and physics of solar and galactic cosmic radiation are examined with respect to the following: the radiation environment of interplanetary space, the biological responses to radiation in space, and the risk estimates for deep space missions. There is a need for a long-term program where ground-based studies can be augmented by flight experiments and an international standardization with respect to data collection, protocol comparison, and formulation of guidelines for future missions.

Swenberg, Charles E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field Measurement and Analysis of Frequency and RoCoF for Low-Inertia Power Systems

The frequency measurement and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) calculations are important for active power, frequency control, and frequency-related protection in power system operations. With the rapid decrease in inertia under modern power systems, however, multiple power variations introduced by variable renewable energy bring large RoCoF and introduce oscillations in frequency measurements. To shed light on this issue, this article proposes a frequency measurement and RoCoF analysis technology, as well as the sensitivity analysis for the real low-inertia power grid. First, a real-world event in an island power grid is analyzed as an example, and an event numerical model is estimated considering four uncertainties, including event RoCoF, oscillation magnitude, oscillation frequency, and underfrequency load-shedding threshold. Then, a sensitivity analysis is performed using the Sobol indices method and quasi-Monte Carlo simulations to identify the dominant uncertainties based on the event model. Here, the dominant uncertainties are compared to provide a guideline for the frequency estimation algorithm selection under different event cases. This algorithm is compared with an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm and gives a 3.41% better RoCoF error rate. Finally, an experiment is conducted using universal grid analyzers to validate the simulation results and the theoretical analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗