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At least 37 records · Page 2

A deep learning hybrid predictive modeling (HPM) approach for estimating evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration

Climate change is reshaping vulnerable ecosystems, leading to uncertain effects on ecosystem dynamics, including evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). However, accurate estimation of ET and R eco still remains challenging at sparsely monitored watersheds, where data and field instrumentation are limited. In this study, we developed a hybrid predictive modeling approach (HPM) that integrates eddy covariance measurements, physically based model simulation results, meteorological forcings, and remote-sensing datasets to estimate ET and R eco in high space–time resolution. HPM relies on a deep learning algorithm and long short-term memory (LSTM) and requires only air temperature, precipitation, radiation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and soil temperature (when available) as input variables. We tested and validated HPM estimation results in different climate regions and developed four use cases to demonstrate the applicability and variability of HPM at various FLUXNET sites and Rocky Mountain SNOTEL sites in Western North America. To test the limitations and performance of the HPM approach in mountainous watersheds, an expanded use case focused on the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. The results indicate HPM is capable of identifying complicated interactions among meteorological forcings, ET, and R eco variables, as well as providing reliable estimation of ET and R eco across relevant spatiotemporal scales, even in challenging mountainous systems. The study documents that HPM increases our capability to estimate ET and R eco and enhances process understanding at sparsely monitored watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Isoprene Emission Response to Drought and Heatwaves Within MEGAN Using Evapotranspiration Data and by Coupling With the Community Land Model

We introduce two new drought stress algorithms designed to simulate isoprene emission with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) model. The two approaches include the representation of the impact of drought on isoprene emission with a simple empirical approach for offline MEGAN applications and a more process-based approach for online MEGAN in Community Land Model (CLM) simulations. The two versions differ in their implementation of leaf-temperature impacts of mild drought. For the online version of MEGAN that is coupled to CLM, the impact of drought on leaf temperature is simulated directly and the calculated leaf temperature is considered for the estimation of isoprene emission. For the offline version, we apply an empirical algorithm derived from whole-canopy flux measurements for simulating the impact of drought ranging from mild to severe stage. In addition, the offline approach adopts the ratio ($f$ PET ) of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration to quantify the severity of drought instead of using soil moisture. We applied the two algorithms in the CLM-CAM-chem (the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry) model to simulate the impact of drought on isoprene emission and found that drought can decrease isoprene emission globally by 11% in 2012. We further compared the formaldehyde (HCHO) vertical column density simulated by CAM-chem to satellite HCHO observations. We found that the proposed drought algorithm can improve the match with the HCHO observations during droughts, but the performance of the drought algorithm is limited by the capacity of the model to capture the severity of drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

River–aquifer interactions enhancing evapotranspiration in a semiarid riparian zone: A modelling study

The hydrologic flows across the river–aquifer interface play an important role in groundwater dynamics and biogeochemical reactions within the subsurface; however, little is known about the effects of river–aquifer interactions on land surface processes. In this study, we developed a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) land surface and subsurface model at a high resolution (~1 km) that accounts for high-frequency hydrologic exchange flow conditions to investigate how river–aquifer interactions modulate surface water budgets in the Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids watershed, a typical semiarid watershed located in the northwestern United States where river stage fluctuates in response to reservoir releases changing. Our results show that the spatiotemporal dynamics of river–aquifer interactions are highly heterogeneous, driven mainly by river-stage fluctuations. Adding 6.64 × 10 6 m 3 year –1 of water over the watershed from the river to groundwater owing to the lateral flow, river–aquifer interactions led to an increase in soil evaporation and transpiration supplied by higher soil moisture content, particularly in deeper subsurface. In a hypothetic future scenarios where a 5-m rise in river stage was assumed, the hydrologic flow exchange rates were intensified, resulting in higher surface water over the entire watershed. Overall, lateral flow induced by river–aquifer exchanges leads to an increase in evapotranspiration of ~75% in the historical period and of ~83% in the hypothetical future scenario. Finally, our study demonstrates the potential of coupled model as an effective tool for understanding river–aquifer–land surface interactions, and indicates that river–aquifer interactions fundamentally alter the water balance of the riparian zone for the semiarid watershed and will likely become more frequent and intense in the future under the effects of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Topography‐Driven Water Redistribution on Terrestrial Water Storage Change in California Through Ecosystem Responses

Abstract Lateral subsurface flow plays an essential role in sustaining the terrestrial ecosystem, but it is not explicitly represented in most Earth System Models. In this study, we implemented an explicit lateral saturated flow model into the E3SM land model (ELM). The model explicitly describes lateral flow in the saturated zone by representing, for each model grid, an idealized hillslope consisting of five hydrologically connected soil columns. We conducted three model experiments driven by 0.125° atmospheric forcing data during 1980–2015 over California using models of the default ELM, a modified version of ELM to enhance infiltration, and the model with the lateral saturated flow model. The simulated runoff, evapotranspiration, and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the three simulations were evaluated against available observations, and the model explicitly representing lateral flow performs best. The new model produces greater gridcell‐averaged evapotranspiration especially over the mountainous regions with moderate relief and seasonally dry climates. Most importantly, it improves the modeled seasonal variations, interannual variabilities, and the recent decadal decline of TWSA. Many of these improvements can be attributed to the enhanced ecosystem resilience to droughts as demonstrated by transpiration increases caused by lateral flow. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that subsurface runoff is most sensitive to the ratio between horizontal and vertical saturated hydraulic conductivity, followed by hillslope planforms (convergent, divergent, and uniform), number of columns, and lower boundary conditions. Future work should effectively characterize hillslopes in global models and explore the long‐term influences of lateral water movement on modeled biogeochemical cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding water and energy fluxes in the Amazonia: Lessons from an observation‐model intercomparison

Abstract Tropical forests are an important part of global water and energy cycles, but the mechanisms that drive seasonality of their land‐atmosphere exchanges have proven challenging to capture in models. Here, we (1) report the seasonality of fluxes of latent heat (LE), sensible heat ( H ), and outgoing short and longwave radiation at four diverse tropical forest sites across Amazonia—along the equator from the Caxiuanã and Tapajós National Forests in the eastern Amazon to a forest near Manaus, and from the equatorial zone to the southern forest in Reserva Jaru; (2) investigate how vegetation and climate influence these fluxes; and (3) evaluate land surface model performance by comparing simulations to observations. We found that previously identified failure of models to capture observed dry‐season increases in evapotranspiration (ET) was associated with model overestimations of (1) magnitude and seasonality of Bowen ratios (relative to aseasonal observations in which sensible was only 20%–30% of the latent heat flux) indicating model exaggerated water limitation, (2) canopy emissivity and reflectance (albedo was only 10%–15% of incoming solar radiation, compared to 0.15%–0.22% simulated), and (3) vegetation temperatures (due to underestimation of dry‐season ET and associated cooling). These partially compensating model‐observation discrepancies (e.g., higher temperatures expected from excess Bowen ratios were partially ameliorated by brighter leaves and more interception/evaporation) significantly biased seasonal model estimates of net radiation ( R n ), the key driver of water and energy fluxes (LE ~ 0.6 R n and H ~ 0.15 R n ), though these biases varied among sites and models. A better representation of energy‐related parameters associated with dynamic phenology (e.g., leaf optical properties, canopy interception, and skin temperature) could improve simulations and benchmarking of current vegetation–atmosphere exchange and reduce uncertainty of regional and global biogeochemical models.

Restrepo‐Coupe, Natalia↗

Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Availability and Spring Flows: Observations from the Highly Productive Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System

Medicine Lake Highlands/Fall River Springs Aquifer System, located in northeastern California, is home to some of the largest first-order springs in the United States. This work assesses the likely effects of projected climate change on spring flow. Four anticipated climate futures (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5, CNRM rcp 8.5) for California, which predict a range of conditions (generally warming and transitioning from snow to rain with variable amounts of total precipitation), are postulated to affect groundwater recharge primarily by changing evapotranspiration. The linkages between climate variables and spring flow are evaluated using a water balance model that represents the physics of evapotranspiration and recharge, the Basin Characterization Model. Three of the four climate scenarios (GFDL A2, GFDL B1, CCSM4 rcp 8.5) project that by the year 2100, groundwater recharge (and consequently decreased spring flow) will decrease by 27%, 21%, and 9%, respectively. The fourth scenario (CNRM rcp 8.5) showed an increase in recharge of 32% due to a significant increase in precipitation (27%). Evapotranspiration increases due to a shift in the type of precipitation and a longer growing season. While the likelihood of each scenario is outside the scope of this work, unless total precipitation increases dramatically in the future, increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation will likely result in reduced spring flows, along with warmer water temperatures in downstream habitats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prediction of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Fluxes Using Six Meteorological Data-Based Approaches for a Range of Climate and Land Cover Types

Evapotranspiration is the major component of the water cycle, so a correct estimate of this variable is fundamental. The purpose of the present research is to assess the monthly scale accuracy of six meteorological data-based models in the prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) losses by comparing the modelled fluxes with the observed ones from eight sites equipped with eddy covariance stations which differ in terms of vegetation and climate type. Three potential ET methods (Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, and Blaney-Criddle models) and three actual ET models (the Advection-Aridity, the Granger and Gray, and the Antecedent Precipitation Index method) have been proposed. The findings show that the models performances differ from site to site and they depend on the vegetation and climate characteristics. Indeed, they show a wide range of error values ranging from 0.18 to 2.78. It has been not possible to identify a single model able to outperform the others in each biome, but in general, the Advection-Aridity approach seems to be the most accurate, especially when the model calibration in not carried out. It returns very low error values close to 0.38. When the calibration procedure is performed, the most accurate model is the Granger and Gray approach with minimum error of 0.13 but, at the same time, it is the most impacted by this process, and therefore, in a context of data scarcity, it results the less recommended for ET prediction. The performances of the investigated ET approaches have been furthermore tested in case of lack of measured data of soil heat fluxes and net radiation considering using empirical relationships based on meteorological data to derive these variables. Results show that, the use of empirical formulas to derive ET estimates increases the errors up to 200% with the consequent loss of model accuracy.

net radiation↗

Energy balance in the DSSAT-CSM-CROPGRO model

One potential way to improve crop growth models is for the models to predict energy balance and evapotranspiration (ET) from first principles, thus serving as a check on “engineered” ET methodology. In this paper, we present new implementations and the results of an energy balance model (EBL) developed by Jagtap and Jones (1989) and then implemented in DSSAT’s CROPGRO (CG-EBL) model by Pickering et al. (1995) as a linked energy balance-photosynthesis model that has not been field-tested until now. The energy balance code computes evapotranspiration and other energy balance components, as well as a canopy air temperature, based on three sources (sunlit leaves, shaded leaves, soil surface). Model performance was evaluated with measured biomass and energy fluxes from two sites in Nebraska, namely, the US-Ne2 irrigated maize-soybean rotation field and the US-Ne3 rainfed maize-soybean rotation field, which are part of the Ameriflux eddy covariance network (htt ps://ameriflux.lbl.gov/sites). After implementing new aerodynamic resistances and the stomatal conductance model of the Ball–Berry–Leuning, crop growth, evapotranspiration and soil temperature were simulated well by the EBL model. The EBL improved ET predictions slightly over the often-used FAO56 method [Penman–Monteith (Allen et al., 1998)] for 4 of the 5 years evaluated for both irrigated and rainfed conditions. Further, a significant improvement was achieved using EBL for the simulation of soil temperature at the various depths compared to STEMP, the original subroutine in DSSAT for simulating soil temperature. Compared to the other available DSSAT methods, the EBL explicitly simulates the impacts of crop morphology, physiology and management on the crop’s environment and energy and mass exchange, which in turn directly affect the water use and irrigation requirements, phenology, photosynthesis, growth, sterility, and yield of the crop.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remotely Sensed High‐Resolution Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration: Bridging the Gap Between Science and Society

This paper reviews the current state of high‐resolution remotely sensed soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) products and modeling, and the coupling relationship between SM and ET. SM downscaling approaches for satellite passive microwave products leverage advances in artificial intelligence and high‐resolution remote sensing using visible, near‐infrared, thermal‐infrared, and synthetic aperture radar sensors. Remotely sensed ET continues to advance in spatiotemporal resolutions from MODIS to ECOSTRESS to Hydrosat and beyond. These advances enable a new understanding of bio‐geo‐physical controls and coupled feedback mechanisms between SM and ET reflecting the land cover and land use at field scale (3–30 m, daily). Still, the state‐of‐the‐science products have their challenges and limitations, which we detail across data, retrieval algorithms, and applications. We describe the roles of these data in advancing 10 application areas: drought assessment, food security, precision agriculture, soil salinization, wildfire modeling, dust monitoring, flood forecasting, urban water, energy, and ecosystem management, ecohydrology, and biodiversity conservation. We discuss that future scientific advancement should focus on developing open‐access, high‐resolution (3–30 m), sub‐daily SM and ET products, enabling the evaluation of hydrological processes at finer scales and revolutionizing the societal applications in data‐limited regions of the world, especially the Global South for socio‐economic development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Abstract. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A coupled equilibrium boundary layer model with stable water isotopes and its application to local water recycling

The contribution of evapotranspiration (ET) to regional precipitation, known as “local water recycling”, is a key process in the water cycle that can affect water management. However, the amount of planetary boundary layer (PBL) moisture that arises from ET is highly uncertain due to complex atmosphere and land surface conditions. In this study, an idealized two-layer equilibrium boundary layer model was coupled with a stable water isotope module including HDO and H 2 18 O to constrain PBL growing season water transport processes. The model was validated using turbulent heat fluxes and isotope ratios of water vapor (δ m ) and precipitation (δ P ) measured at a cropland site and a nearby tall tower in the Upper Midwest, United States. The results show that the PBL equilibrium features of δ m and δ P are well-constrained by thermal and moisture equilibrium in the PBL. For this study region, the summer values of rain evaporation fraction (f) and local water recycling ratio (LRR) are estimated to be 0.09 and 0.29 ± 0.12, respectively. The summer LRR values for the years 2006–2010 were 0.35, 0.36, 0.17, 0.29, and 0.29, respectively. The small value of LRR in 2008 corresponded to a drought condition with the lowest precipitation and second lowest ET among the five years. The summer magnitude of the amount effect is –2.8‰ (mm day –1 ) –1 and –0.8‰ (mm day –1 ) –1 for HDO and H 2 18 O, respectively. The local water recycling is identified as a significant factor influencing the continental isotope effect. Cropland has likely changed the regional LRR by –7.6 to 19.5% under different pre-agriculture land use scenarios. In conclusion, the feedback processes revealed here indicate that local water recycling is expected to be weakened under drought conditions, but it will be enhanced if irrigation is applied more intensely with more frequent drought events as the climate continues to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking soil moisture and its relationship to ecohydrologic variables in Earth System Models

Soil moisture (SM) is a key regulator of ecosystem biogeophysics, influencing plant water relations and land-atmosphere energy exchanges. We evaluate the representation of SM in 16 Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework, focusing on surface (0–5, 0–10 cm) and rootzone (0–100 cm) depths, as well as key ecohydrological variables like gross primary productivity (GPP), leaf area index (LAI), and evapotranspiration (ET), and their coupling. Models are benchmarked against multiple observational and assimilated datasets to assess both state variables and cross-variable relationships. Surface SM is generally well represented (r > 0.87), while rootzone SM variability is systematically overestimated (normalized standard deviation > 1). ET shows strong agreement with observations (r > 0.9), whereas GPP and LAI exhibit larger inter-model spread. Skill in individual variables does not guarantee realistic SM–ecohydrology coupling, which varies strongly across models and depends on the reference dataset. Köppen-based regional analyses reveal strong regime dependence, with several models performing well in Tropical and Temperate regions but degrading in Continental (high-latitude) zones. Across both global and regional benchmarks, models cluster by land surface framework, indicating that structural choices in soil hydrology and soil–plant coupling exert a first-order control on performance. These results provide process-relevant benchmarks and suggest that improving the representation of vertical soil structure, rooting depth distributions, and soil–plant hydraulic coupling will be central to advancing soil moisture realism in next-generation Earth system models.

CMIP6↗

Land Processes Can Substantially Impact the Mean Climate State

Terrestrial processes influence the atmosphere by controlling land-to-atmosphere fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Prior research has demonstrated that parameter uncertainty drives uncertainty in land surface fluxes. However, the influence of land process uncertainty on the climate system remains underexplored. Here, we quantify how assumptions about land processes impact climate using a perturbed parameter ensemble for 18 land parameters in the Community Earth System Model version 2 under preindustrial conditions. We find that an observationally-informed range of land parameters generate biogeophysical feedbacks that significantly influence the mean climate state, largely by modifying evapotranspiration. Global mean land surface temperature ranges by 2.2°C across our ensemble (σ = 0.5°C) and precipitation changes were significant and spatially variable. Our analysis demonstrates that the impacts of land parameter uncertainty on surface fluxes propagate to the entire Earth system, and provides insights into where and how land process uncertainty influences climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-modelling predictions show high uncertainty of required carbon input changes to reach a 4‰ target

Soils store vast amounts of carbon (C) on land, and increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in already managed soils such as croplands may be one way to remove C from the atmosphere, thereby limiting subsequent warming. The main objective of this study was to estimate the amount of additional C input needed to annually increase SOC stocks by 4‰ at 16 long-term agricultural experiments in Europe, including exogenous organic matter (EOM) additions. We used an ensemble of six SOC models and ran them under two configurations: (1) with default parametrization and (2) with parameters calibrated site-by-site to fit the evolution of SOC stocks in the control treatments (without EOM). We compared model simulations and analysed the factors generating variability across models. The calibrated ensemble was able to reproduce the SOC stock evolution in the unfertilised control treatments. We found that, on average, the experimental sites needed an additional 1.5 ± 1.2 Mg C ha -1 year -1 to increase SOC stocks by 4‰ per year over 30 years, compared to the C input in the control treatments (multi-model median ± median standard deviation across sites). That is, a 119% increase compared to the control. While mean annual temperature, initial SOC stocks and initial C input had a significant effect on the variability of the predicted C input in the default configuration (i.e., the relative standard deviation of the predicted C input from the mean), only water-related variables (i.e., mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) explained the divergence between models when calibrated. Here, our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks in agriculture and accentuates the need to increasingly lean on multi-model ensembles when predicting SOC stock trends and related processes. To increase the reliability of SOC models under future climate change, we suggest model developers to better constrain the effect of water-related variables on SOC decomposition.

4 per 1000 initiative↗

Contaminant Transport Modeling for Technology Evaluation and Long-Term Monitoring in the Tims Branch Testbed, SC - 20343

Studies conducted at U.S. DOE sites have shown the presence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and volatile organic compounds in surface water, groundwater, and soil as a result of nuclear activity in the Cold War era. Since the 1990's, innovative cleanup methods have been implemented in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site (SRS) to limit the contaminant flux to the stream that have reduced the contaminant concentrations to acceptable regulatory levels in the dissolved phase. A tin-based treatment which effectively eliminated all local anthropogenic mercury inputs to this ecosystem resulted in a known step function addition of inert tin oxide particles which now serve as a potential tracer for sedimentation and particle transport processes in the stream. The long-term effectiveness of this and other remediation techniques and the potential for remobilization of adsorbed contaminant in sediment during extreme hydrologic conditions however remains unclear. It is therefore important to understand not only the fate and transport of dissolved contaminants, but also the movement of sediment and the relevant interactions with dissolved contaminant. To narrow this knowledge gap, a study is being conducted using the Tims Branch watershed as a stream-scale ecosystem test-bed to identify the primary transport processes of major contaminants of concern (such as mercury, nickel and uranium) with an emphasis on interactions with sediment transport. This involves the development of a fully distributed hydrologic watershed model of the Tims Branch watershed to predict streamflow under extreme weather conditions, as well as the development of a comprehensive contaminant transport model that can properly account for coupled contaminant and sediment transport. Review of relevant research reports and peer-reviewed journals revealed that aside from advection-dispersion transport of dissolved contaminants, adsorption and desorption with suspended solids and bed sediment also play an important role in the transport of those contaminants of concern. To develop the fully distributed hydrologic watershed model, the MIKE SHE 2-dimensional (2D) land surface/3D groundwater model that simulates surface/subsurface hydrologic processes (such as overland flow, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) was coupled with a 1D streamflow model that accounts for stream water hydraulics (such as hydraulic structures, cross-sections, and network). To model contaminant transport, the MIKE 11 streamflow component was coupled with the MIKE 11 AD module that simulates solute transport through advection and dispersion, and MIKE ECO Lab module that accounts for both sediment transport and interactions with dissolved contaminant. At this stage, the development and optimization of the fully distributed hydrologic model has been completed, achieving satisfactory statistical results between observed and predicted discharge as indicated by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.039 cms and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.764. The ongoing development of the contaminant transport model has also yielded realistic results from preliminary tests. Results from this study are a key to evaluating the effectiveness of tin (II)-based mercury treatment of wetlands at the SRS site, and are also relevant to evaluating the potential of using this type of novel remediation technology in other mercury-contaminated stream systems. Knowledge acquired from this research will also support interpretation of historical data on the trends of contaminant concentration distribution in Tims Branch, particularly considering the effect of extreme hydrological events on the stream flow and pollutant transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

[Re] Drivers of evapotranspiration from boreal wildfires

Computational reproducibility is a difficult challenge across science. I attempted to use R 3.6.1 to reproduce linear model fits, done originally using v2.6.0 for a 2009 paper on the drivers of large-scale forest evapotranspiration after wildfire. Model outputs were largely identical, aside from minor formatting changes, except for one–out of 12 total– regression in which the median residual value changed very slightly (in the sixth decimal place). I suggest that this essentially successful reproducibility is due to the relative simplicity of the script, its use of only base R functions, and R’s historically conservative approach to breaking changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗