Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “exploratory modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. V. Testing Astrophysical Models of the Galactic Center Black Hole

In this paper we provide a first physical interpretation for the Event Horizon Telescope's (EHT) 2017 observations of Sgr A*. Our main approach is to compare resolved EHT data at 230 GHz and unresolved non-EHT observations from radio to X-ray wavelengths to predictions from a library of models based on time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics simulations, including aligned, tilted, and stellar-wind-fed simulations; radiative transfer is performed assuming both thermal and nonthermal electron distribution functions. We test the models against 11 constraints drawn from EHT 230 GHz data and observations at 86 GHz, 2.2μm, and in the X-ray. All models fail at least one constraint. Light-curve variability provides a particularly severe constraint, failing nearly all strongly magnetized (magnetically arrested disk (MAD)) models and a large fraction of weakly magnetized models. A number of models fail only the variability constraints. We identify a promising cluster of these models, which are MAD and have inclination i ≤ 30°. They have accretion rate (5.2–9.5) × 10$^{−9}$ M $_{⊙}$ yr$^{−1}$, bolometric luminosity (6.8–9.2) × 10$^{35}$ erg s$^{−1}$, and outflow power (1.3–4.8) × 10$^{38}$ erg s$^{−1}$. We also find that all models with i ≥ 70° fail at least two constraints, as do all models with equal ion and electron temperature; exploratory, nonthermal model sets tend to have higher 2.2μm flux density; and the population of cold electrons is limited by X-ray constraints due to the risk of bremsstrahlung overproduction. Finally, we discuss physical and numerical limitations of the models, highlighting the possible importance of kinetic effects and duration of the simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An exploratory steady–state redox model of photosynthetic linear electron transport for use in complete modelling of photosynthesis for broad applications

A photochemical model of photosynthetic electron transport (PET) is needed to integrate photophysics, photochemistry, and biochemistry to determine redox conditions of electron carriers and enzymes for plant stress assessment and mechanistically link sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence to carbon assimilation for remotely sensing photosynthesis. Towards this goal, we derived photochemical equations governing the states and redox reactions of complexes and electron carriers along the PET chain. These equations allow the redox conditions of the mobile plastoquinone pool and the cytochrome b 6 f complex (Cyt) to be inferred with typical fluorometry. The equations agreed well with fluorometry measurements from diverse C 3 /C 4 species across environments in the relationship between the PET rate and fraction of open photosystem II reaction centres. We found the oxidation of plastoquinol by Cyt is the bottleneck of PET, and genetically improving the oxidation of plastoquinol by Cyt may enhance the efficiency of PET and photosynthesis across species. Redox reactions and photochemical and biochemical interactions are highly redundant in their complex controls of PET. Although individual reaction rate constants cannot be resolved, they appear in parameter groups which can be collectively inferred with fluorometry measurements for broad applications. The new photochemical model developed enables advances in different fronts of photosynthesis research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Automatic variable selection in ecological niche modeling: A case study using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii)

MERRA/Max provides a feature selection approach to dimensionality reduction that enables direct use of global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling. The system accomplishes this reduction through a Monte Carlo optimization in which many independent MaxEnt runs, operating on a species occurrence file and a small set of randomly selected variables in a large collection of variables, converge on an estimate of the top contributing predictors in the larger collection. These top predictors can be viewed as potential candidates in the variable selection step of the ecological niche modeling process. MERRA/Max’s Monte Carlo algorithm operates on files stored in the underlying filesystem, making it scalable to large data sets. Its software components can run as parallel processes in a high-performance cloud computing environment to yield near real-time performance. In tests using Cassin’s Sparrow (Peucaea cassinii) as the target species, MERRA/Max selected a set of predictors from Worldclim’s Bioclim collection of 19 environmental variables that have been shown to be important determinants of the species’ bioclimatic niche. It also selected biologically and ecologically plausible predictors from a more diverse set of 86 environmental variables derived from NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, an output product of the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) modeling system. We believe these results point to a technological approach that could expand the use global climate model outputs in ecological niche modeling, foster exploratory experimentation with otherwise difficult-to-use climate data sets, streamline the modeling process, and, eventually, enable automated bioclimatic modeling as a practical, readily accessible, low-cost, commercial cloud service.

John L. Schnase↗

Pebble Tanker Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Needs

This report documents a study performed to investigate the requirements for criticality safety benchmark experiments for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel in transportation applications. In this work, an exploratory application model, the “Pebble Tanker,” was developed to represent TRISO fuel in a transportation scenario for an analysis of the validation basis in industrial quantities. An aspect of the criticality validation process involves assessing the “similarity” between application and experimental benchmark systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. Here, this includes propagating nuclear data uncertainties and calculating a correlation coefficient (hereinafter referred to as “c k ”) to evaluate the similarity of benchmark experiments compared with the application Pebble Tanker model. Finding sufficient critical benchmark experiments allows for the evaluation of bias and bias uncertainty, thus determining the upper subcritical limit (USL) of the transportation package. A target k eff of ~0.94 was used in this work to establish appropriate modeling conditions, reflecting a reasonable estimate for a USL. Two container models were investigated: one with the Hermes-type pebble and one with the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering only fuel, containment structure, and either water or air. This allows a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the Pebble Tanker model. A crucial consideration is the transport package's ability to safely hold pebbles while flooded, maintaining subcritical conditions. Tools available in the SCALE 6.3.1 suite—the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences—were employed for neutronics and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of the Pebble Tanker. Findings demonstrated sufficient available critical experiment benchmarks to perform a validation of the Pebble Tanker in the most reactive state, i.e., when the Tanker is flooded.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Integrated Effects of Site Hydrology and Vegetation on Exchange Fluxes and Nutrient Cycling at a Coastal Terrestrial‐Aquatic Interface

Abstract The complex interactions among soil, vegetation, and site hydrologic conditions driven by precipitation and tidal cycles control the biogeochemical transformations and bi‐directional exchange of carbon and nutrients across the terrestrial–aquatic interfaces (TAIs) in coastal regions. This study uses a highly mechanistic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS)‐PFLOTRAN, to explore how these interactions affect exchanges of materials and carbon and nitrogen cycling. We used a transect in the Chesapeake Bay region that spans zones of open water, coastal wetland, transition, and upland forest. We designed several simulation scenarios to parse the effects of the individual controlling factors and the sensitivity of carbon cycling to reaction rate parameters derived from laboratory experiments. Our simulations reveal an active zone for carbon cycling under the transition zones between the wetland and the upland. Evapotranspiration is found to enhance the exchange fluxes between the surface and subsurface domains, resulting in a higher dissolved oxygen concentration in the TAIs. The transport of organic carbon derived from plant leaves and roots provide an additional source of organic carbon needed for the aerobic respiration and denitrification processes in the TAIs. The variability in reaction rate parameters associated with microbial activities is also found to play a dominant role in controlling the heterogeneity and dynamics of the simulated redox conditions. This modeling‐focused exploratory study enabled us to better understand the complex interactions among soil, water and microbes that govern the hydro‐biogeochemical processes at the TAIs, which is an important step toward representing coastal ecosystems in larger‐scale Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solving the puzzle of Fe homeostasis by integrating molecular, mathematical, and societal models

To ensure optimal utilization and bioavailability, iron uptake, transport, subcellular localization, and assimilation are tightly regulated in plants. In this work, we examine recent advances in our understanding of cellular responses to Fe deficiency. We then use intracellular mechanisms of Fe homeostasis to discuss how formalizing cell biology knowledge via a mathematical model can advance discovery even when quantitative data is limited. Using simulation-based inference to identify plausible systems mechanisms that conform to known emergent phenotypes can yield novel, testable hypotheses to guide targeted experiments. However, this approach relies on the accurate encoding of domain-expert knowledge in exploratory mathematical models. We argue that this would be facilitated by fostering more “systems thinking” life scientists and that diversifying your research team may be a practical path to achieve that goal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Simultaneous Raman-Rayleigh-LIF Measurements and Numerical Modeling Results of a Lifted H2/N2 Turbulent Jet Flame in a Vitiated Coflow

An experimental and numerical investigation is presented of a H2/N2 turbulent jet flame burner that has a novel vitiated coflow. The vitiated coflow emulates the recirculation region of most combustors, such as gas turbines or furnaces. Additionally, since the vitiated gases are coflowing, the burner allows for exploration of recirculation chemistry without the corresponding fluid mechanics of recirculation. Thus the vitiated coflow burner design facilitates the development of chemical kinetic combustion models without the added complexity of recirculation fluid mechanics. Scalar measurements are reported for a turbulent jet flame of H2/N2 in a coflow of combustion products from a lean ((empty set) = 0.25) H2/Air flame. The combination of laser-induced fluorescence, Rayleigh scattering, and Raman scattering is used to obtain simultaneous measurements of the temperature, major species, as well as OH and NO. Laminar flame calculation with equal diffusivity do agree when the premixing and preheating that occurs prior to flame stabilization is accounted for in the boundary conditions. Also presented is an exploratory pdf model that predicts the flame's axial profiles fairly well, but does not accurately predict the lift-off height.

Cabra, R.↗

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

MultiSector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems

The field of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) explores the dynamics and co-evolutionary pathways of human and Earth systems with a focus on critical goods, services, and amenities delivered to people through interdependent sectors. This commentary lays out core definitions and concepts, identifies MSD science questions in the context of the current state of knowledge, and describes ongoing activities to expand capacities for open science, leverage revolutions in data and computing, and grow and diversify the MSD workforce. Central to our vision is the ambition of advancing the next generation of complex adaptive human-Earth systems science to better address interconnected risks, increase resilience, and improve sustainability. This will require convergent research and the integration of ideas and methods from multiple disciplines. Understanding the tradeoffs, synergies, and complexities that exist in coupled human-Earth systems is particularly important in the context of energy transitions and increased future shocks.

Reed, Patrick↗

Space Station Freedom as an engineering experiment station: An overview

In this presentation, the premise that Space Station Freedom has great utility as an engineering experiment station will be explored. There are several modes in which it can be used for this purpose. The most obvious are space qualification, process development, in space satellite repair, and materials engineering. The range of engineering experiments which can be done at Space Station Freedom run the gamut from small process oriented experiments to full exploratory development models. A sampling of typical engineering experiments are discussed in this session. First and foremost, Space Station Freedom is an elaborate experiment itself, which, if properly instrumented, will provide engineering guidelines for even larger structures which must surely be built if humankind is truly 'outward bound.' Secondly, there is the test, evaluation and space qualification of advanced electric thruster concepts, advanced power technology and protective coatings which must of necessity be tested in the vacuum of space. The current approach to testing these technologies is to do exhaustive laboratory simulation followed by shuttle or unmanned flights. Third, the advanced development models of life support systems intended for future space stations, manned mars missions, and lunar colonies can be tested for operation in a low gravity environment. Fourth, it will be necessary to develop new protective coatings, establish construction techniques, evaluate new materials to be used in the upgrading and repair of Space Station Freedom. Finally, the industrial sector, if it is ever to build facilities for the production of commercial products, must have all the engineering aspects of the process evaluated in space prior to a commitment to such a facility.

Rose, M. Frank↗

Earth to Moon Transfer: Direct vs Via Libration Points (L1, L2)

For some three decades, the Apollo-style mission has served as a proven baseline technique for transporting flight crews to the Moon and back with expendable hardware. This approach provides an optimal design for expeditionary missions, emphasizing operational flexibility in terms of safely returning the crew in the event of a hardware failure. However, its application is limited essentially to low-latitude lunar sites, and it leaves much to be desired as a model for exploratory and evolutionary programs that employ reusable space-based hardware. This study compares the performance requirements for a lunar orbit rendezvous mission type with one using the cislunar libration point (L1) as a stopover and staging point for access to arbitrary sites on the lunar surface. For selected constraints and mission objectives, it contrasts the relative uniformity of performance cost when the L1 staging point is used with the wide variation of cost for the Apollo-style lunar orbit rendezvous.

Condon, Gerald L.↗

Results from an exploratory study of airframe noise on a small-scale model of a supersonic transport concept

An exploratory study of airframe noise on a small-scale model of a supersonic transport concept was made. The model was a 0.015 scale version without landing gear of Langley's Advanced Supersonic Technology configuration concept, AST-110. Noise measurements were made at positions corresponding to directly beneath the model and at 30 deg - sideline, for both cruise and the approch flaps configurations, at velocities up to 34 m/s. In general, results showed the cruise noise to be about 3dB above the background flow noise and the approach noise to be about 11 dB above. Overall sound pressure levels and spectral shapes agreed with state of the art predictive techniques.

Preisser, J. S.↗

Model atmospheres for cool supergiant stars.

The results of an exploratory grid of model atmospheres for cool giant stars are used to illustrate the effect of varying the chemical composition of the atmosphere. The effects of composition changes (depletion of C and O, enrichment of N, and increase in the ratio C/O), which might be expected from processing of the original material of a star through the CNO cycle of nuclear burning, are studied. The models also include the important CN opacity. They are illustrated by giving several representative T-P and T-tau diagrams, spectral energy curves, and column density tables of molecules.

Alexander, D. R.↗

Exploratory evaluation of a moving-model technique for measurement of dynamic ground effects

An attempt is presently made to measure the dynamic or time-dependent ground effects that may be encountered by aircraft during approach and landing by means of a ground-based testing technique that employs a model moving horizontally over an upwardly inclined ground plane to simulate the rate of descent. Results have been thus obtained for a 60-deg delta wing and for an F-18 full configuration, with and without thrust reversal, at forward speeds of up to 100 ft/sec. An analysis of the results gathered indicates that ground effects were reduced when the rate of descent was included in the test conditions.

Kemmerly, Guy T.↗

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗