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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

The Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm Employing Differential Evolution: Simulations and Applications

The ability to estimate the fraction of ground flashes in a set of flashes observed by a satellite lightning imager, such as the future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), would likely improve operational and scientific applications (e.g., severe weather warnings, lightning nitrogen oxides studies, and global electric circuit analyses). A Bayesian inversion method, called the Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm (GoFFRA), was recently developed for estimating the ground flash fraction. The method uses a constrained mixed exponential distribution model to describe a particular lightning optical measurement called the Maximum Group Area (MGA). To obtain the optimum model parameters (one of which is the desired ground flash fraction), a scalar function must be minimized. This minimization is difficult because of two problems: (1) Label Switching (LS), and (2) Parameter Identity Theft (PIT). The LS problem is well known in the literature on mixed exponential distributions, and the PIT problem was discovered in this study. Each problem occurs when one allows the numerical minimizer to freely roam through the parameter search space; this allows certain solution parameters to interchange roles which leads to fundamental ambiguities, and solution error. A major accomplishment of this study is that we have employed a state-of-the-art genetic-based global optimization algorithm called Differential Evolution (DE) that constrains the parameter search in such a way as to remove both the LS and PIT problems. To test the performance of the GoFFRA when DE is employed, we applied it to analyze simulated MGA datasets that we generated from known mixed exponential distributions. Moreover, we evaluated the GoFFRA/DE method by applying it to analyze actual MGAs derived from low-Earth orbiting lightning imaging sensor data; the actual MGA data were classified as either ground or cloud flash MGAs using National Lightning Detection Network[TM] (NLDN) data. Solution error plots are provided for both the simulations and actual data analyses.

Koshak, William↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme-value statistics in nonlinear optics

We show that, although nonlinear optics may give rise to a vast multitude of statistics, all these statistics converge, in their extreme-value limit, to one of a few universal extreme-value statistics. Specifically, in the class of polynomial nonlinearities, such as those found in the Kerr effect, weak-field harmonic generation, and multiphoton ionization, the statistics of the nonlinear-optical output converges, in the extreme-value limit, to the exponentially tailed, Gumbel distribution. Exponentially growing nonlinear signals, on the other hand, such as those induced by parametric instabilities and stimulated scattering, are shown to reach their extreme-value limits in the class of the Fréchet statistics, giving rise to extreme-value distributions (EVDs) with heavy, manifestly nonexponential tails, thus favoring extreme-event outcomes and rogue-wave buildup.

Zheltikov, Aleksei M. (ORCID:0000000291380576)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Universality of Poisson-driven plasma fluctuations in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer

Large-amplitude, intermittent fluctuations are ubiquitous in the boundary region of magnetically confined plasmas and lead to detrimental plasma-wall interactions in next-generation, high duty cycle fusion power experiments. Using gas puff imaging data time series from the scrape-off layer in the Alcator C-Mod device, it is demonstrated in this work that the large-amplitude fluctuations can be described as a super-position of pulses with a fixed shape and a constant duration. By applying a new deconvolution algorithm on the data time series with a two-sided exponential pulse function, the arrival times and amplitudes of the pulses can be estimated, and the measurement time series can be reconstructed with high accuracy. The pulse amplitudes are shown to follow an exponential distribution. The waiting times between pulses are uncorrelated, their distribution has an exponential tail, and the number of arrivals is a linear function of time. This demonstrates that pulse arrivals follow a homogeneous Poisson process. Identical statistical properties apply to both ohmic and high confinement mode plasmas, clearly demonstrating the universality of the fluctuation statistics in the boundary region of Alcator C-Mod.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1974

The abundances of nuclei in the cosmic radiation

The relative abundances are treated as a consequence of processes in cosmic ray transport occurring during passage of the radiation through interstellar material at high velocity. Some of the subjects mentioned are nuclear fragmentation and the production of secondary nuclei, nuclear reactions, energy loss and nuclear decay, ionization, the range-energy relation and propagation variables, capture and loss of electrons, the propagation of nuclei, the transport equation, equilibrium solutions, energy-dependent path length distribution, exponential path length distributions, discrete spectra, sources, supernovae, and the origin of the abundances. The connection between the space-time features of the sources, the material traversed, and the effects of magnetic fields is established by describing the particle-field interaction as a diffusive or random-walk process.

Reames, D. V.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Improved Results for Route Planning in Stochastic Transportation Networks

In the bus network problem, the goal is to generate a plan for getting from point X to point Y within a city using buses in the smallest expected time. Because bus arrival times are not determined by a fixed schedule but instead may be random. the problem requires more than standard shortest path techniques. In recent work, Datar and Ranade provide algorithms in the case where bus arrivals are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. We offer solutions to two important generalizations of the problem, answering open questions posed by Datar and Ranade. First, we provide a polynomial time algorithm for a much wider class of arrival distributions, namely those with increasing failure rate. This class includes not only exponential distributions but also uniform, normal, and gamma distributions. Second, in the case where bus arrival times are independent and geometric discrete random variable,. we provide an algorithm for transportation networks of buses and trains, where trains run according to a fixed schedule.

Boyan, Justin↗
NASA NTRS1993

Venus small volcano classification and description

The high resolution and global coverage of the Magellan radar image data set allows detailed study of the smallest volcanoes on the planet. A modified classification scheme for volcanoes less than 20 km in diameter is shown and described. It is based on observations of all members of the 556 significant clusters or fields of small volcanoes located and described by this author during data collection for the Magellan Volcanic and Magmatic Feature Catalog. This global study of approximately 10 exp 4 volcanoes provides new information for refining small volcano classification based on individual characteristics. Total number of these volcanoes was estimated to be 10 exp 5 to 10 exp 6 planetwide based on pre-Magellan analysis of Venera 15/16, and during preparation of the global catalog, small volcanoes were identified individually or in clusters in every C1-MIDR mosaic of the Magellan data set. Basal diameter (based on 1000 measured edifices) generally ranges from 2 to 12 km with a mode of 34 km, and follows an exponential distribution similar to the size frequency distribution of seamounts as measured from GLORIA sonar images. This is a typical distribution for most size-limited natural phenomena unlike impact craters which follow a power law distribution and continue to infinitely increase in number with decreasing size. Using an exponential distribution calculated from measured small volcanoes selected globally at random, we can calculate total number possible given a minimum size. The paucity of edifice diameters less than 2 km may be due to inability to identify very small volcanic edifices in this data set; however, summit pits are recognizable at smaller diameters, and 2 km may represent a significant minimum diameter related to style of volcanic eruption. Guest, et al, discussed four general types of small volcanic edifices on Venus: (1) small lava shields; (2) small volcanic cones; (3) small volcanic domes; and (4) scalloped margin domes ('ticks'). Steep-sided domes or 'pancake domes', larger than 20 km in diameter, were included with the small volcanic domes. For the purposes of this study, only volcanic edifices less than 20 km in diameter are discussed. This forms a convenient cutoff since most of the steep-sided domes ('pancake domes') and scalloped margin domes ('ticks') are 20 to 100 km in diameter, are much less numerous globally than are the smaller diameter volcanic edifices (2 to 3 orders of magnitude lower in total global number), and do not commonly occur in large clusters or fields of large numbers of edifices.

Aubele, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Redshift data and statistical inference

Frequency histograms and the 'power spectrum analysis' (PSA) method, the latter developed by Yu & Peebles (1969), have been widely employed as techniques for establishing the existence of periodicities. We provide a formal analysis of these two classes of methods, including controlled numerical experiments, to better understand their proper use and application. In particular, we note that typical published applications of frequency histograms commonly employ far greater numbers of class intervals or bins than is advisable by statistical theory sometimes giving rise to the appearance of spurious patterns. The PSA method generates a sequence of random numbers from observational data which, it is claimed, is exponentially distributed with unit mean and variance, essentially independent of the distribution of the original data. We show that the derived random processes is nonstationary and produces a small but systematic bias in the usual estimate of the mean and variance. Although the derived variable may be reasonably described by an exponential distribution, the tail of the distribution is far removed from that of an exponential, thereby rendering statistical inference and confidence testing based on the tail of the distribution completely unreliable. Finally, we examine a number of astronomical examples wherein these methods have been used giving rise to widespread acceptance of statistically unconfirmed conclusions.

Newman, William I.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Poincaré recurrence statistics as an indicator of chaos synchronization

The dynamics of the autonomous and non-autonomous Rössler system is studied using the Poincaré recurrence time statistics. It is shown that the probability distribution density of Poincaré recurrences represents a set of equidistant peaks with the distance that is equal to the oscillation period and the envelope obeys an exponential distribution. The dimension of the spatially uniform Rössler attractor is estimated using Poincaré recurrence times. The mean Poincaré recurrence time in the non-autonomous Rössler system is locked by the external frequency, and this enables us to detect the effect of phase-frequency synchronization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1994

A stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme for GCM applications

In the surface hydrologic parameterization of general circulation models (GCMs), it is commonly assumed that the precipitation processes are homogeneous over a GCM grid square and that the precipitation intensity is uniformly distributed. Based on evidence that the spatial distribution of precipitation within a GCM grid square is crucial for the land surface hydrology parameterization, a few researchers have explored the impacts of assuming that the precipitation is exponentially distributed. This paper explores the suitability of the aforementioned assumptions. First, a statistical analysis is conducted of historical precipitation data for three GCM grids in different regions of the United States. The analysis suggests that neither the uniform nor the exponential distribution assumption may be suitable at the GCM grid scale and, that instead, the spatial variability in precipitation is characterized by statistical patterns that are inhomogeneous. These patterns vary from grid to grid and are induced by the interaction between atmospheric conditions and various land surface characteristics, such as topographical features, surface properties, etc. Within the same grid square, however, the statistical patterns are generally constant from year to year. Based on this analysis, a computationally viable (i.e., usable with GCMs) stochastic precipitation disaggregation scheme that utilizes these stable statistical patterns is proposed. The method was used to generate spatially distributed hourly rainfall for a summer season in the southwestern region of the continental United States. Analysis of the results shows that the methodology preserves the seasonal characteristics of spatial variability in precipitation that is observed in the long-term historical data.

Gao, Xiaogang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for baryon junctions in photonuclear processes and isobar collisions at RHIC

During the early development of quantum chromodynamics, it was proposed that baryon number could be carried by a non-perturbative Y-shaped topology of gluon fields, called the gluon junction, rather than by the valence quarks as in the QCD standard model. A puzzling feature of ultra-relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions is the apparent substantial baryon excess in the mid-rapidity region that could not be adequately accounted for in most conventional models of quark and diquark transport. The transport of baryonic gluon junctions is predicted to lead to a characteristic exponential distribution of net-baryon density with rapidity and could resolve the puzzle. In this context we point out that the rapidity density of net-baryons near mid-rapidity indeed follows an exponential distribution with a slope of –0.61 ± 0.03 as a function of beam rapidity in the existing global data from A+A collisions at AGS, SPS and RHIC energies. To further test if quarks or gluon junctions carry the baryon quantum number, we propose to study the absolute magnitude of the baryon vs. charge stopping in isobar collisions at RHIC. We also argue that semi-inclusive photon-induced processes (γ + p/A) at RHIC kinematics provide an opportunity to search for the signatures of the baryon junction and to shed light onto the mechanisms of observed baryon excess in the mid-rapidity region in ultra-relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions. Such measurements can be further validated in A+A collisions at the LHC and e + p/A collisions at the EIC.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic tunnel junction random number generators applied to dynamically tuned probability trees driven by spin orbit torque

Abstract Perpendicular magnetic tunnel junction (pMTJ)-based true-random number generators (RNGs) can consume orders of magnitude less energy per bit than CMOS pseudo-RNGs. Here, we numerically investigate with a macrospin Landau–Lifshitz-Gilbert equation solver the use of pMTJs driven by spin–orbit torque to directly sample numbers from arbitrary probability distributions with the help of a tunable probability tree. The tree operates by dynamically biasing sequences of pMTJ relaxation events, called ‘coinflips’, via an additional applied spin-transfer-torque current. Specifically, using a single, ideal pMTJ device we successfully draw integer samples on the interval [0, 255] from an exponential distribution based on p -value distribution analysis. In order to investigate device-to-device variations, the thermal stability of the pMTJs are varied based on manufactured device data. It is found that while repeatedly using a varied device inhibits ability to recover the probability distribution, the device variations average out when considering the entire set of devices as a ‘bucket’ to agnostically draw random numbers from. Further, it is noted that the device variations most significantly impact the highest level of the probability tree, with diminishing errors at lower levels. The devices are then used to draw both uniformly and exponentially distributed numbers for the Monte Carlo computation of a problem from particle transport, showing excellent data fit with the analytical solution. Finally, the devices are benchmarked against CMOS and memristor RNGs, showing faster bit generation and significantly lower energy use.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Characteristics of vertical air motion in isolated convective clouds

The vertical velocity and air mass flux in isolated convective clouds are statistically analyzed using aircraft in situ data collected from three field campaigns: High-Plains Cumulus (HiCu) conducted over the midlatitude High Plains, COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) conducted in a midlatitude coastal area, and Ice in Clouds Experiment-Tropical (ICE-T) conducted over a tropical ocean. The results show that small-scale updrafts and downdrafts (< 500 m in diameter) are frequently observed in the three field campaigns, and they make important contributions to the total air mass flux. The probability density functions (PDFs) and profiles of the observed vertical velocity are provided. The PDFs are exponentially distributed. The updrafts generally strengthen with height. Relatively strong updrafts (> 20 m s −1 ) were sampled in COPE and ICE-T. The observed downdrafts are stronger in HiCu and COPE than in ICE-T. The PDFs of the air mass flux are exponentially distributed as well. The observed maximum air mass flux in updrafts is of the order 10 4 kg m −1 s −1 . The observed air mass flux in the downdrafts is typically a few times smaller in magnitude than that in the updrafts. Since this study only deals with isolated convective clouds, and there are many limitations and sampling issues in aircraft in situ measurements, more observations are needed to better explore the vertical air motion in convective clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Grobner Basis Solution for Lightning Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval

A Bayesian inversion method was previously introduced for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in a set of flashes observed from a (low earth orbiting or geostationary) satellite lightning imager. The method employed a constrained mixed exponential distribution model to describe the lightning optical measurements. To obtain the optimum model parameters, a scalar function was minimized by a numerical method. In order to improve this optimization, we introduce a Grobner basis solution to obtain analytic representations of the model parameters that serve as a refined initialization scheme to the numerical optimization. Using the Grobner basis, we show that there are exactly 2 solutions involving the first 3 moments of the (exponentially distributed) data. When the mean of the ground flash optical characteristic (e.g., such as the Maximum Group Area, MGA) is larger than that for cloud flashes, then a unique solution can be obtained.

Solakiewicz, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subsurface Nitrogen Dissociation Kinetics in Lithium Metal from Metadynamics

The dissociation of molecular nitrogen in lithium is of interest for several promising technologies, such as the catalytic synthesis of ammonia in ambient or mild conditions. In this work we simulate nitrogen dissociation in the lithium BCC (110) surface at ambient and elevated temperatures using density functional theory (DFT) metadynamics simulations. The rate constants at temperatures of 300, 400, and 500 K are calculated by statistical analysis of the reaction time distributions from the accelerated simulations. This approach finds and estimates rate constants for transition pathways out of the initial state; the required input is the stable initial state and a reasonable choice of collective variable. A single collective variable is used in this case: the N–N distance. The results are robust to changes in metadynamics parameters, and the reaction time distributions follow the expected exponential distribution. We show that the metadynamics-derived rate constants are in agreement with results from the conventional harmonic approximation approach using a climbing image nudged elastic band (NEB) transition state search. The reaction barriers from metadynamics and the NEB/harmonic approximation agree to within 0.02–0.04 eV at all temperatures studied. This paper demonstrates that the harmonic approximation provides an accurate description of the rate constants for nitrogen dissociation in lithium metal, even at temperatures near or above the melting point of lithium, lending credence to previous and future theoretical studies using this approximation. Moreover, this work demonstrates a step toward the automated exploration and discovery of reaction mechanisms and associated rate constants for elementary surface-catalyzed reactions using DFT-based metadynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling of photocurrent and lag signals in amorphous selenium x-ray detectors

A mathematical model for transient photocurrent and lag signal in x-ray imaging detectors has been developed by considering charge carrier trapping and detrapping in the energy distributed defect states under exponentially distributed carrier generation across the photoconductor. The model for the transient and steady-state carrier distributions and hence the photocurrent has been developed by solving the carrier continuity equation for both holes and electrons. The residual (commonly known as lag signal) current is modeled by solving the trapping rate equations considering the thermal release and trap filling effects. The model is applied to amorphous selenium (a-Se) detectors for both chest radiography and mammography. The authors analyze the dependence of the residual current on various factors, such as x-ray exposure, applied electric field, and temperature. The electron trapping and detrapping mostly determines the residual current in a-Se detectors. The lag signal is more prominent in chest radiographic detector than in mammographic detectors. The model calculations are compared with the published experimental data and show a very good agreement.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Methodology for Quantifying Certain Design Requirements During the Design Phase

A methodology for developing and balancing quantitative design requirements for safety, reliability, and maintainability has been proposed. Conceived as the basis of a more rational approach to the design of spacecraft, the methodology would also be applicable to the design of automobiles, washing machines, television receivers, or almost any other commercial product. Heretofore, it has been common practice to start by determining the requirements for reliability of elements of a spacecraft or other system to ensure a given design life for the system. Next, safety requirements are determined by assessing the total reliability of the system and adding redundant components and subsystems necessary to attain safety goals. As thus described, common practice leaves the maintainability burden to fall to chance; therefore, there is no control of recurring costs or of the responsiveness of the system. The means that have been used in assessing maintainability have been oriented toward determining the logistical sparing of components so that the components are available when needed. The process established for developing and balancing quantitative requirements for safety (S), reliability (R), and maintainability (M) derives and integrates NASA s top-level safety requirements and the controls needed to obtain program key objectives for safety and recurring cost (see figure). Being quantitative, the process conveniently uses common mathematical models. Even though the process is shown as being worked from the top down, it can also be worked from the bottom up. This process uses three math models: (1) the binomial distribution (greaterthan- or-equal-to case), (2) reliability for a series system, and (3) the Poisson distribution (less-than-or-equal-to case). The zero-fail case for the binomial distribution approximates the commonly known exponential distribution or "constant failure rate" distribution. Either model can be used. The binomial distribution was selected for modeling flexibility because it conveniently addresses both the zero-fail and failure cases. The failure case is typically used for unmanned spacecraft as with missiles.

Adams, Timothy↗