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At least 37 records · Page 2

CATMoS: Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite

Background: Humans are exposed to tens of thousands of chemical substances that need to be assessed for their potential toxicity. Acute systemic toxicity testing serves as the basis for regulatory hazard classification, labeling, and risk management. However, it is cost- and time-prohibitive to evaluate all new and existing chemicals using traditional rodent acute toxicity tests. In silico models built using existing data facilitate rapid acute toxicity predictions without using animals. Objectives: The U.S. Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods Acute Toxicity Workgroup organized an international collaboration to develop in silico models for predicting acute oral toxicity based on five different endpoints: LD50 value, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazard categories, Globally Harmonized System for Classification and Labelling hazard categories, very toxic chemicals (LD50 =50 mg/kg), and non-toxic chemicals (LD50 >2000 mg/kg). Methods: An acute oral toxicity data inventory for 11,992 chemicals was compiled, split into training and evaluation sets, and made available to 35 participating international research groups that submitted a total of 139 predictive models. Predictions that fell within the applicability domains of the submitted models were evaluated using external validation sets. These were then combined into consensus models to leverage strengths of individual approaches. Results: The resulting consensus predictions, which leverage the collective strengths of each individual model, form the Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS). CATMoS demonstrated high performance in terms of accuracy and robustness when compared to in vivo results. Discussion: CATMoS is being evaluated by regulatory agencies for its utility and applicability as a potential replacement for in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies. CATMoS predictions for over 800,000 chemicals have been made available via the NTP’s Integrated Chemical Environment. The models are also implemented in a free, standalone open-source tool, OPERA, which allows predictions of new and untested chemicals to be made.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

A novel methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a composite score: Prediction model development and validation

Abstract Background An integrated score that globally assesses perioperative pain experience and rationally weights each component has not yet been developed. Methods A development dataset specific to adult Chinese patients undergoing orthopaedic surgery was obtained from PAIN OUT (1985 qualified patients of 2244). A more recent validation dataset obeying the same conditions was obtained from the Chinese Anaesthesia Shared‐database Platform (1004 qualified patients of 1032). Outcomes were assessed using the International Pain Outcomes Questionnaire (IPO‐Q), which comprises key patient‐level outcomes of perioperative pain management, including pain experience and perceptions of care. Using principal component analysis and regression models, a composite score (CS) was inferred to integrate pain experience. The discrimination of the CS for dissatisfaction and desire for more pain treatment was compared with that of the worst pain score. Results A CS was developed from the 12 items of the IPO‐Q regarding pain experience. The weight for calculating the CS was worst pain 11, least pain 17, time spent in severe pain 11, interference with activity in bed 9, interference with breathing deeply or coughing 10, interference with sleep 9, anxiety 12, helplessness 12, nausea 0, drowsiness 2, itch 5 and dizziness 2. In external validation, the CS indicated superior discrimination to the worst pain in predicting dissatisfaction ( p < 0.001) and desire for more pain treatment ( p < 0.001). Conclusions This study introduced a methodology to integrate outcomes regarding perioperative pain experience into a CS, which was based on the weight of each item. Significance This novel methodology sheds additional light on the riveting issue of carefully integrating several measures into a composite endpoint, which may be useful for quality improvement purposes when addressing the impact of a change in clinical practice.

Jiang, Bailin↗

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures included Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A causal data fusion method for the general exposure and outcome

Abstract With the advent of the big data era, the need to combine multiple individual data sets to draw causal effects arises naturally in many medical and biological applications. Especially each data set cannot measure enough confounders to infer the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. In this article, we extend the method proposed by a previous study to causal data fusion of more than two data sets without external validation and to a more general (continuous or discrete) exposure and outcome. Theoretically, we obtain the condition for identifiability of exposure effects using multiple individual data sources for the continuous or discrete exposure and outcome. The simulation results show that our proposed causal data fusion method has unbiased causal effect estimate and higher precision than traditional regression, meta‐analysis and statistical matching methods. We further apply our method to study the causal effect of BMI on glucose level in individuals with diabetes by combining two data sets. Our method is essential for causal data fusion and provides important insights into the ongoing discourse on the empirical analysis of merging multiple individual data sources.

Li, Hongkai↗

Influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic characterization of sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry

NIR spectroscopy is a rapid and accurate green technology for high-throughput biomass characterization, including sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a promising energy crop for the biofuel industry. This study assessed the influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic analysis (wavelength range: 867–2535 nm) of sorghum biomass composition. Grown under field conditions, a total of 113 types of genetically diverse sorghum accessions were dried, ground, and sieved (<250, 250–600, 600–850, and > 850 µm particle size) for developing partial least square regression (PLSR) prediction models for moisture, ash, extractive, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin (ASL + AIL). Overall, smaller particle sizes provided better model performance, while no single particle size provided the best performance for all the selected components. With only 9 selected bands and 4 latent variables (LVs), the best PLSR model was obtained for moisture with particle size of 600–850 µm with the square root of the coefficient of determination (R) of 0.85, the ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD) of 2.2, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.46 % in external validation. Similar model performances were also obtained for ash, extractive, glucan, and xylan. This study showed that size reduction could effectively improve NIR spectroscopic analysis for lipid-producing sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Database of pharmacokinetic time-series data and parameters for 144 environmental chemicals

Time courses of compound concentrations in plasma are used in chemical safety analysis to evaluate the relationship between external administered doses and internal tissue exposures. This type of experimental data is rarely available for the thousands of non-pharmaceutical chemicals to which people may potentially be unknowingly exposed but is necessary to properly assess the risk of such exposures. In vitro assays and in silico models are often used to craft an understanding of a chemical’s pharmacokinetics; however, the certainty of the quantitative application of these estimates for chemical safety evaluations cannot be determined without in vivo data for external validation. To address this need, we present a public database of chemical time-series concentration data from 567 studies in humans or test animals for 144 environmentally-relevant chemicals and their metabolites (187 analytes total). All major administration routes are incorporated, with concentrations measured in blood/plasma, tissues, and excreta. We also include calculated pharmacokinetic parameters for some studies, and a bibliography of additional source documents to support future extraction of time-series. In addition to pharmacokinetic model calibration and validation, these data may be used for analyses of diferential chemical distribution across chemicals, species, doses, or routes, and for meta-analyses on pharmacokinetic studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

KRT18 as a Novel Biomarker of Urothelial Papilloma while Evaluating Low-Grade Papillary Urothelial Neoplasms: Bi-Center Analysis

Introduction: Although urothelial papilloma (UP) is an indolent papillary neoplasm that can mimic the morphology of low-grade papillary urothelial carcinoma (PUC), there is no immunomarker to differentiate reliably these two entities. In addition, the molecular characteristics of UP are not fully understood. Methods: We conducted an in-depth proteomic analysis of papillary urothelial lesions (n = 31), including UP and PUC along with normal urothelium. Protein markers distinguishing UP and PUC were selected with machine learning analysis, followed by internal and external validation using immunohistochemistry. Results: In the proteomic analysis, UP and PUC showed overlapping proteomic profiles. Here, we identified EHD4 and KRT18 as candidate diagnostic biomarkers of UP. Through immunohistochemical validation in two independent cohorts (n = 120), KRT18 was suggested as a novel UP diagnostic marker, able to differentiate UP from low-grade PUC. We also found that 3.5% of patients with UP developed urothelial carcinoma in subsequent resections, supporting the malignant potential of UP. KRT18 downregulation was significantly associated with UPs subsequently progressing to urothelial carcinoma, following their initial diagnosis. Conclusion: This is the first study that successfully revealed UPs comprehensive proteomic landscape, while it also identified KRT18 as a potential diagnostic biomarker of UP.

Biomarkers↗

Data for Influence of Particle Size on NIR Spectroscopic Characterization of Sorghum Biomass for the Biofuel Industry

NIR spectroscopy is a rapid and accurate green technology for high-throughput biomass characterization, including sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ), a promising energy crop for the biofuel industry. This study assessed the influence of particle size on NIR spectroscopic analysis (wavelength range: 867–2535 nm) of sorghum biomass composition. Grown under field conditions, a total of 113 types of genetically diverse sorghum accessions were dried, ground, and sieved (<250, 250–600, 600–850, and > 850 µm particle size) for developing partial least square regression (PLSR) prediction models for moisture, ash, extractive, glucan, xylan, acid-soluble lignin (ASL), acid-insoluble lignin (AIL), and total lignin (ASL + AIL). Overall, smaller particle sizes provided better model performance, while no single particle size provided the best performance for all the selected components. With only 9 selected bands and 4 latent variables (LVs), the best PLSR model was obtained for moisture with particle size of 600–850 µm with the square root of the coefficient of determination (R) of 0.85, the ratio of prediction to deviation (RPD) of 2.2, and the root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.46 % in external validation. Similar model performances were also obtained for ash, extractive, glucan, and xylan. This study showed that size reduction could effectively improve NIR spectroscopic analysis for lipid-producing sorghum biomass for the biofuel industry.

Biomass Analytics↗

Uniting Theory and Experiment to Deliver Flexible MOFS for Superior Methane (NG) Storage

The objective of the project was to use previous insights developed through synthesis and quantitative modeling of rigid metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) in an established synergistic theoretical/experimental team to create, modify, and evaluate flexible MOFs (FlexMOFs) for natural gas (NG) storage and release at practically useful pressures and transform the NG storage economy. The goal was reduced pressure absorbed natural gas (ANG) FlexMOF storage at operating pressures less than 100 bar with physisorption exploiting the favorable thermodynamics and kinetics of flexible porous material opening in response to adsorption. Hydrogen behavior in this context was also considered. The specific aim of the project was to design and develop a standard computational modeling methodology for, first, detailed atomistic retrodiction of FlexMOF gating behavior and ultimately prediction of the effects of functionalization and/or substitution on structural transitioning. The project was also geared towards the establishment of the interaction of methane with the framework and binding sites using modeling and the FlexMOF will be both internally and external validated as a SMART metric. This has value to the scientific community both from the obvious standpoint of providing a better understanding of the promising test case systems (CdIF-13 and the MIL-53(Al) series of MOFs), but also in providing an avenue of obtaining insight into these FlexMOF systems in general, which is of particular interest given the tendency of structure-function correlation to lag behind synthesis methodology (making the latter a hit or miss proposition for applications). This gap remains significant for FlexMOF systems whose gate opening behaviors complicate computational examination. The computational methodologies are relatively inexpensive in terms of both money and computational resources enhancing the general viability of these methodologies. The ultimate gain to the public will be in the application of these techniques to design systems for natural gas storage and use to cut down on green-house emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Predicting Metabolic Reaction Networks with Perturbation-Theory Machine Learning (PTML) Models

Background: Checking the connectivity (structure) of complex Metabolic Reaction Networks(MRNs) models proposed for new microorganisms with promising properties is an importantgoal for chemical biology. Objective: In principle, we can perform a hand-on checking (Manual Curation). However, this is achallenging task due to the high number of combinations of pairs of nodes (possible metabolic reactions). Results: The CPTML linear model obtained using the LDA algorithm is able to discriminate nodes(metabolites) with the correct assignation of reactions from incorrect nodes with values of accuracy,specificity, and sensitivity in the range of 85-100% in both training and external validation dataseries. Methods: In this work, we used Combinatorial Perturbation Theory and Machine Learning techniquesto seek a CPTML model for MRNs >40 organisms compiled by Barabasis’ group. First, wequantified the local structure of a very large set of nodes in each MRN using a new class of node indexcalled Markov linear indices fk. Next, we calculated CPT operators for 150000 combinationsof query and reference nodes of MRNs. Last, we used these CPT operators as inputs of differentML algorithms. Conclusion: Meanwhile, PTML models based on Bayesian network, J48-Decision Tree and RandomForest algorithms were identified as the three best non-linear models with accuracy greaterthan 97.5%. The present work opens the door to the study of MRNs of multiple organisms usingPTML models.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗

Serum bile acid and unsaturated fatty acid profiles of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in type 2 diabetic patients

The understanding of bile acid (BA) and unsaturated fatty acid (UFA) profiles, as well as their dysregulation, remains elusive in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) coexisting with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Investigating these metabolites could offer valuable insights into the pathophy-siology of NAFLD in T2DM. Our aim is to identify potential metabolite biomarkers capable of distinguishing between NAFLD and T2DM. A training model was developed involving 399 participants, comprising 113 healthy controls (HCs), 134 individuals with T2DM without NAFLD, and 152 individuals with T2DM and NAFLD. External validation encompassed 172 participants. NAFLD patients were divided based on liver fibrosis scores. The analytical approach employed univariate testing, orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis, logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and decision curve analysis to pinpoint and assess the diagnostic value of serum biomarkers. Compared to HCs, both T2DM and NAFLD groups exhibited diminished levels of specific BAs. In UFAs, particular acids exhibited a positive correlation with NAFLD risk in T2DM, while the ω-6:ω-3 UFA ratio demonstrated a negative correlation. Levels of α-linolenic acid and γ-linolenic acid were linked to significant liver fibrosis in NAFLD. The validation cohort substantiated the predictive efficacy of these biomarkers for assessing NAFLD risk in T2DM patients. This study underscores the connection between altered BA and UFA profiles and the presence of NAFLD in individuals with T2DM, proposing their potential as biomarkers in the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Exploratory study on performance measures as indicators of IS effectiveness

The Information Systems Directorate at JSC/NASA has undertaken the reevaluation of its performance measures process and measures. Under the direction of a quality approach it is essential to identify an external perspective of how well an organization is performing. This study was conducted with two major objectives: (1) survey and summarize the academic literature on performance measures as indicators of information systems (IS) effectiveness; and (2) survey organizations for their experience in measuring for IS effectiveness. Four approaches to measuring the effectiveness of IS performance were identified: (1) listen to the customer for the things they need; (2) align with corporate goals; (3) benchmark against well-respected organizations; and (4) ask yourself what critical factors lead to success. The list of known methods for soliciting customer feedback are as follows: (1) executive visit; (2) survey, interview, and focus group; (3) complaints and compliments; and (4) service level agreements. A common set of characteristics that satisfy customers was identified from the literature. The list includes elements such as the following: accuracy, timeliness, relevance, understandability, reliability, and completeness. Future research in this topic area should prove beneficial to determine the metrics for external validity.

Bishop, Peter C.↗

NASA's Space Launch System: Affordability for Sustainability

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is charged with delivering a new capability for human exploration beyond Earth orbit in an austere economic climate. But the SLS value is clear and codified in United States (U.S.) budget law. The SLS Program knows that affordability is the key to sustainability and will provide an overview of initiatives designed to fit within the funding guidelines by using existing engine assets and hardware now in testing to meet a first launch by 2017 within the projected budget. It also has a long-range plan to keep the budget flat, yet evolve the 70-tonne (t) initial lift capability to 130-t lift capability after the first two flights. To achieve the evolved configuration, advanced technologies must offer appropriate return on investment to be selected through the competitive process. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V that took 12 men on 6 trips for a total of 11 days on the lunar surface some 40 years ago. Astronauts train for long-duration voyages on platforms such as the International Space Station, but have not had transportation to go beyond Earth orbit in modern times, until now. To arrive at the launch vehicle concept, the SLS Program conducted internal engineering and business studies that have been externally validated by industry and reviewed by independent assessment panels. In parallel with SLS concept studies, NASA is now refining its mission manifest, guided by U.S. space policy and the Global Exploration Roadmap, which reflects the mutual goals of a dozen member nations. This mission planning will converge with a flexible heavy-lift rocket that can carry international crews and the air, water, food, and equipment they need for extended trips to asteroids and Mars. In addition, the SLS capability will accommodate very large science instruments and other payloads, using a series of modular fairings and adapters to configure the rocket for the mission. The SLS affordability plan includes streamlining interfaces, applying risk-based insight into contracted work, centralizing systems engineering and integration, and nurturing a learning culture where the question Why? is often asked and the answer "Because we've always done it that way" is rarely heard. The SLS Program will deliver affordable space transportation solutions for the Orion Multi-Purpose Cargo Vehicle s first autonomous certification flight in 2017, followed by a crewed flight in 2021. As this briefing will show, the SLS will offer a global infrastructure asset for robotic and human scouts of all nations.

May, Todd A.↗

NASA Space Launch System Operations Strategy

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), is charged with delivering a new capability for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit (BEO). The SLS may also provide backup crew and cargo services to the International Space Station, where astronauts have been training for long-duration voyages to destinations such as asteroids and Mars. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V, providing 10 percent more thrust at liftoff in its initial 70 metric ton (t) configuration and 20 percent more in its evolved 130-t configuration. The SLS Program knows that affordability is the key to sustainability. This paper will provide an overview of its operations strategy, which includes initiatives to reduce both development and fixed costs by using existing hardware and infrastructure assets to meet a first launch by 2017 within the projected budget. It also has a long-range plan to keep the budget flat using competitively selected advanced technologies that offer appropriate return on investment. To arrive at the launch vehicle concept, the SLS Program conducted internal engineering and business studies that have been externally validated by industry and reviewed by independent assessment panels. A series of design reference missions has informed the SLS operations concept, including launching the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) on an autonomous demonstration mission in a lunar flyby scenario in 2017, and the first flight of a crew on Orion for a lunar flyby in 2021. Additional concepts address the processing of very large payloads, using a series of modular fairings and adapters to flexibly configure the rocket for the mission. This paper will describe how the SLS, Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) programs are working together to create streamlined, affordable operations for sustainable exploration for decades to come.

Singer, Joan A.↗

NASA Space Launch System Operations Strategy

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program, managed at the Marshall Space Flight Center, is charged with delivering a new capability for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit. The SLS also will provide backup crew and cargo services to the International Space Station, where astronauts have been training for long-duration voyages to destinations such as asteroids and Mars. For context, the SLS will be larger than the Saturn V, providing 10 percent more thrust at liftoff in its initial 70 metric ton (t) configuration and 20 percent more in its evolved 130 t configuration. The SLS Program knows that affordability is the key to sustainability. This paper will provide an overview of its operations strategy, which includes initiatives to reduce both development and fixed costs by using existing hardware and infrastructure assets to meet a first launch by 2017 within the projected budget. It also has a long-range plan to keep the budget flat using competitively selected advanced technologies that offer appropriate return on investment. To arrive at the launch vehicle concept, the SLS Program conducted internal engineering and business studies that have been externally validated by industry and reviewed by independent assessment panels. A series of design reference missions has informed the SLS operations concept, including launching the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle on an autonomous demonstration mission in a lunar flyby scenario in 2017, and the first flight of a crew on Orion for a lunar flyby in 2021. Additional concepts address the processing of very large payloads, using a series of modular fairings and adapters to flexibly configure the rocket for the mission. This paper will describe how the SLS, Orion, and 21st Century Ground Systems programs are working together to create streamlined, affordable operations for sustainable exploration.

Singer, Joan A.↗

Model validation of SIM external metrology at the sub-nanometer level

In order to achieve micro-arcsecond astrometry, SIM must make measurements of various optical path lengths at the picometer level. In this regime of precision, nearly every simplifying assumption in optics must be reexamined as a potential source of systematic error. SIM makes extensive use of physics-based models to predict the form and level of systematic errors affecting instrument performance. Since many of the modeling areas represent new frontiers in optical modeling, the validation of these physical models is a significant challenge that SIM must meet. In the case of the external metrology truss, the model must account for the imperfections in the corner cubes as well as the distance measuring interferometers ("beam launchers"). This model is being validated using the Kite testbed, a 2-D metrology truss with picometer-level accuracy in displacement measurements. We present the model and the results of the model validation tests on the Kite testbed.

Kuan, Gary M.↗

Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario

In recent years, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have developed methodologies to assess the vulnerabilities of nuclear plants against site specific extreme hazards. In many cases, advanced simulation tools are being considered to simulate multi-physics, multi-scale phenomena and to evaluate vulnerability of nuclear facilities. The credibility of advanced simulation tools is assessed based on a formal verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification procedure. One of the key limitations in validation is the lack of relevant experimental data at system-level. This limitation leads to a decrease in the confidence of system-level risk predictions. Therefore, a robust validation framework is needed to formalize the confidence in predictive capability of advanced simulation results. Additionally, this study enhances the existing risk informed validation methodology, originally proposed by Kwag et al. [1] and Bodda et al. [2], by developing additional attributes and a new set of validation indicies for a complete and wider applicability of the framework. In this manuscript, the methodology to identify the critical path that leads to the system-level failure is illustrated. The overall validation is checked for completeness and consistency by comparing the critical path for both the system-level simulation and experimental models. The applicability of the code for an intended application is represented in terms of various maturity levels and helps in the process of decision making.

42 ENGINEERING↗

EPR-based uncertainty validation of the calculated external doses for population exposed in the urals region

Tooth enamel Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) spectroscopy was used as a method for external dosimetry in the territories contaminated in the 1950s by PA ‘Mayak’ (Urals region) to validate the mean dose estimates predicted by the Techa River Dosimetry System (TRDS). The purpose of this study is to validate the uncertainties of TRDS doses. Ninety percent confidence intervals (90% confidence interval, CI) of dose estimated with both methods were compared for 220 people. All data were grouped according to the width of 90%CI, viz.: (1) 90%CI of EPR-based dose ≤ 90%CI of TRDS prediction (38 cases); (2) 90%CI of EPR-based dose > 90%CI of TRDS prediction (182 cases). About 91% of 90%CIs overlap. In group 1, 100% cases overlap. In group 2, 80% of the cases were non-contradictive (the calculated 90%CI is completely within the measured one). Interval comparison of doses predicted retrospectively and estimated based on individual measurements are non-contradictory and demonstrate a good agreement.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗