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Information Presentation: Human Research Program - Space Human Factors and Habitability, Space Human Factors Engineering Project

The goal of the Information Presentation Directed Research Project (DRP) is to address design questions related to the presentation of information to the crew. The major areas of work, or subtasks, within this DRP are: 1) Displays, 2) Controls, 3) Electronic Procedures and Fault Management, and 4) Human Performance Modeling. This DRP is a collaborative effort between researchers atJohnson Space Center and Ames Research Center. T

Holden, Kristina L.

A Human Factor Analysis to Mitigate Fall Risk Factors in an Aerospace Environment

This slide presentation reviews the study done to quanitfy the risks from falls from three locations (i.e., Shuttle Landing Facility Launch Complex Payloads and Vehicle Assembly Building) at the Kennedy Space Center. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is reviewed and the mathematical model developed is detailed.

Ware, Joylene H.

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

Complex material behavior is represented by a single equation of product form to account for interaction among the various factors. The factors are selected by the physics of the problem and the environment that the model is to represent. For example, different factors will be required for each to represent temperature, moisture, erosion, corrosion, etc. It is important that the equation represent the physics of the behavior in its entirety accurately. The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the external launch tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points - the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used were obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated. The problem lies in how to represent the divot weight with a single equation. A unique solution to this problem is a multi-factor equation of product form. Each factor is of the following form (1 xi/xf)ei, where xi is the initial value, usually at ambient conditions, xf the final value, and ei the exponent that makes the curve represented unimodal that meets the initial and final values. The exponents are either evaluated by test data or by technical judgment. A minor disadvantage may be the selection of exponents in the absence of any empirical data. This form has been used successfully in describing the foam ejected in simulated space environmental conditions. Seven factors were required to represent the ejected foam. The exponents were evaluated by least squares method from experimental data. The equation is used and it can represent multiple factors in other problems as well; for example, evaluation of fatigue life, creep life, fracture toughness, and structural fracture, as well as optimization functions. The software is rather simplistic. Required inputs are initial value, final value, and an exponent for each factor. The number of factors is open-ended. The value is updated as each factor is evaluated. If a factor goes to zero, the previous value is used in the evaluation.

Abumeri, Galib H.

Post-Flight Back Pain Following International Space Station Missions: Evaluation of Spaceflight Risk Factors

INTRODUCTION Back pain during spaceflight has often been attributed to the lengthening of the spinal column due to the absence of gravity during both short and long-duration missions. Upon landing and re-adaptation to gravity, the spinal column reverts back to its original length thereby causing some individuals to experience pain and muscular spasms, while others experience no ill effects. With International Space Station (ISS) missions, cases of back pain and injury are more common post-flight, but little is known about the potential risk factors. Thus, the purpose of this project was to perform an initial evaluation of reported post-flight back pain and injury cases to relevant spaceflight risk factors in United States astronauts that have completed an ISS mission. METHODS All US astronauts who completed an ISS mission between Expeditions (EXP) 1 and 41 (2000-2015) were included in this evaluation. Forty-five astronauts (36 males and 9 females) completed 50 ISS missions during the study time period, as 5 astronauts completed 2 ISS missions. Researchers queried medical records of the 45 astronauts for occurrences of back pain and injury. A case was defined as any reported event of back pain or injury to the cervical, thoracic, lumbar, sacral, or coccyx spine regions. Data sources for the cases included the Flight Medicine Clinic's electronic medical record; Astronaut Strength, Conditioning and Rehabilitation electronic documentation; the Private Medical Conference tool; and the Space Medicine Operations Team records. Post-flight cases were classified as an early case if reported within 45 days of landing (R + 45) or a late case if reported from R + 46 to R + 365 days after landing (R + 1y). Risk factors in the astronaut population for back pain include age, sex, prior military service, and prior history of back pain. Additionally, spaceflight specific risk factors such as type of landing vehicle and onboard exercise countermeasures were included to evaluate their contribution to post-flight cases. Prior history of back pain included back pain recorded in the medical record within 3 years prior to launch. Landing vehicle was included in the model to discern if more astronauts experienced back pain or injury following a Shuttle or Soyuz landing. Onboard exercise countermeasures were noted for those astronauts who had a mission following 2009 deployment of the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (aRED) (EXP 19 to 41). T-test and chi-squared tests were performed to evaluate the association between each individual risk factor and post-flight case. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the combined contribution of all the risk factors on post-flight cases. Separate models were calculated for cases reported by R + 45 and R + 1y. RESULTS During the study time period, there were 13 post-flight cases reported by R + 45 and an additional 5 reported by R + 1y. Most of these cases have been reported since EXP 19 with 10 cases by R + 45 and 4 by R + 1y. Individual risk factors of age, sex, landing vehicle, and prior military service were not significantly associated with post-flight cases identified at R + 45 or R + 1y (p greater than 0.05). Having back pain or injury within 3 years prior to launch significantly increased the likelihood of becoming a case by R + 1y (p = 0.041), but not at R+45 (p=0.204). Additionally, astronauts who experienced onboard exercise countermeasures that included aRED had a significantly increased risk of becoming a case at R + 45 (p = 0.024) and R + 1y (p=0.003). Multiple logistic regression evaluating all the risk factors for cases identified no significant risk factors at either the R + 45 or R + 1y time period (p greater than 0.05). Overall model fit was poor for both the R + 45 (R(exp 2) = 0.132) and R + 1y (R(exp 2) = 0.186) cases showing that there are risk factors not represented in our model. CONCLUSIONS Regardless of cause, post-flight cases are reported more often since aRED was deployed in 2009. This may reflect improved documentation or unidentified risk factors. No spaceflight risk factor explains the data fully. Post-flight cases are probably due to multi-faceted factors that are not easily elucidated in the medical data.

Laughlin, M. S.

An Efficient Scheme for Updating Sparse Cholesky Factors

Raghavan had earlier developed the software package DCSPACK which can be used for solving sparse linear systems where the coefficient matrix is symmetric and positive definite (this project was not funded by NASA but by agencies such as NSF). DSCPACK-S is the serial code and DSCPACK-P is a parallel implementation suitable for multiprocessors or networks-of-workstations with message passing using MCI. The main algorithm used is the Cholesky factorization of a sparse symmetric positive positive definite matrix A = LL(T). The code can also compute the factorization A = LDL(T). The complexity of the software arises from several factors relating to the sparsity of the matrix A. A sparse N x N matrix A has typically less that cN nonzeroes where c is a small constant. If the matrix were dense, it would have O(N2) nonzeroes. The most complicated part of such sparse Cholesky factorization relates to fill-in, i.e., zeroes in the original matrix that become nonzeroes in the factor L. An efficient implementation depends to a large extent on complex data structures and on techniques from graph theory to reduce, identify, and manage fill. DSCPACK is based on an efficient multifrontal implementation with fill-managing algorithms and implementation arising from earlier research by Raghavan and others. Sparse Cholesky factorization is typically a four step process: (1) ordering to compute a fill-reducing numbering, (2) symbolic factorization to determine the nonzero structure of L, (3) numeric factorization to compute L, and, (4) triangular solution to solve L(T)x = y and Ly = b. The first two steps are symbolic and are performed using the graph of the matrix. The numeric factorization step is of dominant cost and there are several schemes for improving performance by exploiting the nested and dense structure of groups of columns in the factor. The latter are aimed at better utilization of the cache-memory hierarchy on modem processors to prevent cache-misses and provide execution rates (operations/second) that are close to the peak rates for dense matrix computations. Currently, EPISCOPACY is being used in an application at NASA directed by J. Newman and M. James. We propose the implementation of efficient schemes for updating the LL(T) or LDL(T) factors computed in DSCPACK-S to meet the computational requirements of their project. A brief description is provided in the next section.

Raghavan, Padma

Some growth factors stimulate cultured adult rabbit ventricular myocyte hypertrophy in the absence of mechanical loading

Cultured adult rabbit cardiac myocytes treated with recombinant growth factors display enhanced rates of protein accumulation (ie, growth) in response to insulin and insulin-like growth factors (IGFs), but epidermal growth factor, acidic or basic fibroblast growth factor, and platelet-derived growth factor failed to increase contractile protein synthesis or growth of the heart cells. Insulin and IGF-1 increased growth rates by stimulating anabolic while simultaneously inhibiting catabolic pathways, whereas IGF-2 elevated growth modestly by apparently inhibiting lysosomal proteolysis. Neutralizing antibodies directed against either IGF-1 or IGF-2 or IGF binding protein 3 blocked protein accumulation. A monoclonal antibody directed against the IGF-1 receptor also inhibited changes in protein turnover provoked by recombinant human IGF-1 but not IGF-2. Of the other growth factors tested, only transforming growth factor-beta 1 increased the fractional rate of myosin heavy chain (MHC) synthesis, with beta-MHC synthesis being elevated and alpha-MHC synthesis being suppressed. However, the other growth factors were able to modestly stimulate the rate of DNA synthesis in this preparation. Bromodeoxyuridine labeling revealed that these growth factors increased DNA synthesis in myocytes and nonmyocytes alike, but the heart cells displayed neither karyokinesis or cytokinesis. In contrast, cocultures of cardiac myocytes and nonmyocytes and nonmyocyte-conditioned culture medium failed to enhance the rate of cardiac MHC synthesis or its accumulation, implying that quiescent heart cells do not respond to "conditioning" by cardiac nonmyocytes. These findings demonstrated that insulin and the IGFs promote passively loaded cultured adult rabbit heart cells to hypertrophy but suggest that other growth factors tested may be limited in this regard.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology

Seasonal Variation and Ecosystem Dependence of Emission Factors for Selected Trace Gases and PM2.5 for Southern African Savanna Fires

In this paper we present the first early dry season (early June-early August) emission factor measurements for carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (Ca), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and particulates with a diameter less than 2.5 microns (pM2.5) for southern African grassland and woodland fires. Seasonal emission factors for grassland fires correlate linearly with the proportion of green grass, used as a surrogate for the fuel moisture content, and are higher for products of incomplete combustion in the early part of the dry season compared with later in the dry season. Models of emission factors for NMHC and PM(sub 2.5) versus modified combustion efficiency (MCE) are statistically different in grassland compared with woodland ecosystems. We compare predictions based on the integration of emissions factors from this study, from the southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative 1992 (SAFARI-92), and from SAFARI-2000 with those based on the smaller set of ecosystem-specific emission factors to estimate the effects of using regional-average rather than ecosystem-specific emission factors. We also test the validity of using the SAFARI-92 models for emission factors versus MCE to predict the early dry season emission factors measured in this study. The comparison indicates that the largest discrepancies occur at the low end (0.907) and high end (0.972) of MCE values measured in this study. Finally, we combine our models of MCE versus proportion of green grass for grassland fires with emission factors versus MCE for selected oxygenated volatile organic compounds measured in the SAFARI-2000 campaign to derive the first seasonal emission factors for these compounds. The results of this study demonstrate that seasonal variations in savanna fire emissions are important and should be considered in modeling emissions at regional to continental scales.

Korontzi, S.

Determination of Parachute Joint Factors using Seam and Joint Testing

This paper details the methodology for determining the joint factor for all parachute components. This method has been successfully implemented on the Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) for the NASA Orion crew module for use in determining the margin of safety for each component under peak loads. Also discussed are concepts behind the joint factor and what drives the loss of material strength at joints. The joint factor is defined as a "loss in joint strength...relative to the basic material strength" that occurs when "textiles are connected to each other or to metals." During the CPAS engineering development phase, a conservative joint factor of 0.80 was assumed for each parachute component. In order to refine this factor and eliminate excess conservatism, a seam and joint testing program was implemented as part of the structural validation. This method split each of the parachute structural joints into discrete tensile tests designed to duplicate the loading of each joint. Breaking strength data collected from destructive pull testing was then used to calculate the joint factor in the form of an efficiency. Joint efficiency is the percentage of the base material strength that remains after degradation due to sewing or interaction with other components; it is used interchangeably with joint factor in this paper. Parachute materials vary in type-mainly cord, tape, webbing, and cloth -which require different test fixtures and joint sample construction methods. This paper defines guidelines for designing and testing samples based on materials and test goals. Using the test methodology and analysis approach detailed in this paper, the minimum joint factor for each parachute component can be formulated. The joint factors can then be used to calculate the design factor and margin of safety for that component, a critical part of the design verification process.

Mollmann, Catherine

Maximum Likelihood Factor Analysis of the Effects of Chronic Centrifugation on the Structural Development of the Musculoskeletal System of the Rat

At the age of 30 days female Sprague-Dawley rats were placed on a 3.66 m radius centrifuge and subsequently exposed almost continuously for 810 days to either 2.76 or 4.15 G. An age-matched control group of rats was raised near the centrifuge facility at earth gravity. Three further control groups of rats were obtained from the animal colony and sacrificed at the age of 34, 72 and 102 days. A total of 16 variables were simultaneously factor analyzed by maximum-likelihood extraction routine and the factor loadings presented after-rotation to simple structure by a varimax rotation routine. The variables include the G-load, age, body mass, femoral length and cross-sectional area, inner and outer radii, density and strength at the mid-length of the femur, dry weight of gluteus medius, semimenbranosus and triceps surae muscles. Factor analyses on A) all controls, B) all controls and the 2.76 G group, and C) all controls and centrifuged animals, produced highly similar loading structures of three common factors which accounted for 74%, 68% and 68%. respectively, of the total variance. The 3 factors were interpreted as: 1. An age and size factor which stimulates the growth in length and diameter and increases the density and strength of the femur. This factor is positively correlated with G-load but is also active in the control animals living at earth gravity. 2. A growth inhibition factor which acts on body size, femoral length and on both the outer and inner radius at mid-length of the femur. This factor is intensified by centrifugation.

Amtmann, E.

Improving the Optical Quality Factor of the WGM Resonator

Resonators usually are characterized with two partially dependent values: finesse (F) and quality factor (Q). The finesse of an empty Fabry-Perot (FP) resonator is defined solely by the quality of its mirrors and is calculated as F=piR(exp 1/2)/(1-R). The maximum up-to-date value of reflectivity R approximately equal to 1 - 1.6 x 10(exp -6) is achieved with dielectric mirrors. An FP resonator made with the mirrors has finesse F=1.9 x 10(exp 6). Further practical increase of the finesse of FP resonators is problematic because of the absorption and the scattering of light in the mirror material through fundamental limit on the reflection losses given by the internal material losses and by thermodynamic density fluctuations on the order of parts in 109. The quality factor of a resonator depends on both its finesse and its geometrical size. A one-dimensional FP resonator has Q=2 F L/lambda, where L is the distance between the mirrors and lambda is the wavelength. It is easy to see that the quality factor of the resonator is unlimited because L is unlimited. F and Q are equally important. In some cases, finesse is technically more valuable than the quality factor. For instance, buildup of the optical power inside the resonator, as well as the Purcell factor, is proportional to finesse. Sometimes, however, the quality factor is more valuable. For example, inverse threshold power of intracavity hyperparametric oscillation is proportional to Q(exp 2) and efficiency of parametric frequency mixing is proportional to Q(exp 3). Therefore, it is important to know both the maximally achievable finesse and quality factor values of a resonator. Whispering gallery mode (WGM) resonators are capable of achieving larger finesse compared to FP resonators. For instance, fused silica resonators with finesse 2.3 x 10(exp 6) and 2.8 x 10(exp 6) have been demonstrated. Crystalline WGM resonators reveal even larger finesse values, F=6.3 x 10(exp 6), because of low attenuation of light in the transparent optical crystals. The larger values of F and Q result in the enhancement of various nonlinear processes. Low-threshold Raman lasing, optomechanical oscillations, frequency doubling, and hyperparametric oscillations based on these resonators have been recently demonstrated. Theory predicts a possibility of nearly 10(exp 14) room-temperature optical Q-factors of optical crystalline WGM resonators, which correspond to finesse levels higher than 10(exp 9). Experiments have shown numbers a thousand times lower than that. The difference occurs due to media imperfections. To substantially reduce the optical losses caused by the imperfections, a specific, multi-step, asymptotic processing of the resonator is implemented. The technique has been initially developed to reduce microwave absorption in dielectric resonators. One step of the process consists of mechanical polishing performed after high temperature annealing. Several steps repeat one after another to lead to significant reduction in optical attenuation and, as a result, to the increase of Q-factor as well as finesse of the resonator which demonstrates a CaF2 WGM resonator with F greater than 10(exp 7) and Q greater than 10(exp 11).

Savchenkov, Anatoliy

Development of Non-Optimum Factors for Launch Vehicle Propellant Tank Bulkhead Weight Estimation

Non-optimum factors are used during aerospace conceptual and preliminary design to account for the increased weights of as-built structures due to future manufacturing and design details. Use of higher-fidelity non-optimum factors in these early stages of vehicle design can result in more accurate predictions of a concept s actual weights and performance. To help achieve this objective, non-optimum factors are calculated for the aluminum-alloy gores that compose the ogive and ellipsoidal bulkheads of the Space Shuttle Super-Lightweight Tank propellant tanks. Minimum values for actual gore skin thicknesses and weld land dimensions are extracted from selected production drawings, and are used to predict reference gore weights. These actual skin thicknesses are also compared to skin thicknesses predicted using classical structural mechanics and tank proof-test pressures. Both coarse and refined weights models are developed for the gores. The coarse model is based on the proof pressure-sized skin thicknesses, and the refined model uses the actual gore skin thicknesses and design detail dimensions. To determine the gore non-optimum factors, these reference weights are then compared to flight hardware weights reported in a mass properties database. When manufacturing tolerance weight estimates are taken into account, the gore non-optimum factors computed using the coarse weights model range from 1.28 to 2.76, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.90. Application of the refined weights model yields non-optimum factors between 1.00 and 1.50, with an average non-optimum factor of 1.14. To demonstrate their use, these calculated non-optimum factors are used to predict heavier, more realistic gore weights for a proposed heavy-lift launch vehicle s propellant tank bulkheads. These results indicate that relatively simple models can be developed to better estimate the actual weights of large structures for future launch vehicles.

Wu, K. Chauncey

SAGE III/ISS Ozone and NO2 Validation Using Diurnal Scaling Factors

We developed a set of solar zenith angle, latitude- and altitude-dependent scaling factors to account for the diurnal variability in ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) when comparing Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III/ISS observations to observations from other times of day. The scaling factors are calculated as a function of solar zenith angle from the four-dimensional output of a global atmospheric chemistry model simulation of 2017–2020 that shows good agreement with observed vertical profiles. Using a global atmospheric chemistry model allows us to account for both chemically and dynamically driven variability. Both year-specific scale factors and a multi-year monthly climatology are available to decrease the uncertainty in inter-instrument comparisons and allow consistent comparisons between observations from different times of day. We describe the variability in the diurnal scale factors as a function of space and time. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) appears to be a contributing factor to interannual variability in the NO2 scaling factors, leading to differences between years that switch sign with altitude. We show that application of these scaling factors improves the comparison between SAGE III/ISS and OSIRIS NO2 and between SAGE III/ISS and OMPS LP, OSIRIS, and ACE-FTS O3 observations. The comparisons between SAGE III/ISS O3 for sunrise or sunset vs. Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) daytime or nighttime observations are also more consistent when we apply the diurnal scaling factors. There is good agreement between SAGE III/ISS V5.2 ozone and correlative measurements, with differences within 5 % between 20 and 50 km when corrected for diurnal variability. Similarly, the SAGE III/ISS V5.2 NO2 agreement with correlative measurement is mostly within 10 %. While the scale factors were designed for use with SAGE III/ISS observations, they can easily be applied to other observation intercomparisons as well.

Sarah A. Strode

Deconvolution of SNPP VIIRS Solar Diffuser Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function On-orbit Change Factor

The Earth-observing Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite regularly calibrates its reflective solar bands (RSBs), primarily through observing an onboard sunlit solar diffuser (SD). The on-orbit change of the value of the SD bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) is quantified by a numerical factor, called the H-factor, and is determined by the onboard SD stability monitor (SDSM). Because the spectral response function of an SDSM detector spreads in wavelength, the directly measured H-factor is the true H-factor convolved with the spectral response function. To find the true H-factor, we use the traditional direct method and an innovative iterative approach to separately deconvolve the measured H-factor. Our iterative approach relies on two properties of the SDSM detector spectral response function: the central peak width is narrow enough so that the H-factor does not change much over the peak width, and the dominance of the spectral response function’s integral with respect to the wavelength over the width. The iterative approach is more accurate, of a smaller noise impact, much more flexible in terms of interpolation and extrapolation of function values, and faster. We have used deconvolved H-factors to calibrate the NASA SNPP VIIRS RSB Collections 1 and 2 Level-1B products.

SNPP VIIRS

Friction-factor characteristics for narrow channels with honeycomb surfaces

The experimental determination of friction-factors for the flow of air in a narrow channel lined with various honeycomb geometries has been carried out. Test results show that, generally, the friction-factor is nearly constant or slightly decreases as the Reynolds number increases, a characteristic common to turbulent flow in pipes. However, in some test geometries this trend is remarkably different. The friction factor dramatically drops and then rises as the Reynolds number increases. This phenomenon can be characterized as a 'friction-factor jump'. Further investigations of the acoustic spectrum and friction-factor measurements for a broad range of Reynolds numbers indicate that the 'friction-factor jump' phenomenon is accompanied by an onset of a normal mode resonance excited coherent flow fluctuation structure, which occurs at Reynolds number of the order of 10,000. The purpose of this paper is to explain the friction-factor-jump phenomenon and friction-factor characteristics.

Ha, T. W.

A case study of view-factor rectification procedures for diffuse-gray radiation enclosure computations

The view factors which are used in diffuse-gray radiation enclosure calculations are often computed by approximate numerical integrations. These approximately calculated view factors will usually not satisfy the important physical constraints of reciprocity and closure. In this paper several view-factor rectification algorithms are reviewed and a rectification algorithm based on a least-squares numerical filtering scheme is proposed with both weighted and unweighted classes. A Monte-Carlo investigation is undertaken to study the propagation of view-factor and surface-area uncertainties into the heat transfer results of the diffuse-gray enclosure calculations. It is found that the weighted least-squares algorithm is vastly superior to the other rectification schemes for the reduction of the heat-flux sensitivities to view-factor uncertainties. In a sample problem, which has proven to be very sensitive to uncertainties in view factor, the heat transfer calculations with weighted least-squares rectified view factors are very good with an original view-factor matrix computed to only one-digit accuracy. All of the algorithms had roughly equivalent effects on the reduction in sensitivity to area uncertainty in this case study.

Taylor, Robert P.

Track Structure and the Quality Factor for Space Radiation Cancer Risk

A major risk from exposure to space radiation is the induction of cancer and it is from estimates of this risk that the maximum career flight times of NASA space crew members are restricted by a permissible exposure limit. For the purpose of demonstrating compliance with the career limit, NASA has developed a cancer risk projection model for exposure-induced fatal cancer, in which the formulation and numerical values of the quality factor (QFNASA) are substantially different from those of the quality factor (Q) or radiation weighting factor (wR) routinely applied for radiation protection on earth. The quality factor is used to account for the increased effectiveness of radiations of high linear energy transfer (LET), compared to the effectiveness of low-LET γ-rays derived from epidemiological studies of the atomic-bomb survivors. The need for a special approach for space radiation is dictated by the special characteristics of the charged particles from solar radiation and especially the charged particles of high energy and charge (HZE) in galactic cosmic rays (GCR). This article considers aspects of radiation track structure in relation to the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of HZE particles and the quality factor used for space radiation. The NASA quality factor (QFNASA) is composed of two terms, which can be interpreted as broadly representing the low- and the high-ionization-density components of the HZE particle tracks. These are discussed in turn as they relate to available experimental evidence on the biological effectiveness of such components. Also briefly described are subsequent published proposals for a reformulation of the quality factor to relate more directly to the acute γ-ray exposures from the atomic bombs and for further refinement of the parameter values (and their uncertainties) that determine the shape of the quality factor function. Other recent developments are also mentioned.

Mullenax, Carol A.

Large Contribution of Meteorological Factors to Inter-Decadal Changes in Regional Aerosol Optical Depth

Aerosol optical depth (AOD) has become a crucial metric for assessing global climate change. Although global and regional AOD trends have been studied extensively, it remains unclear what factors are driving the inter-decadal variations in regional AOD and how to quantify the relative contribution of each dominant factor. This study used a long-term (1980–2016) aerosol dataset from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis, along with two satellite-based AOD datasets (MODIS/Terra and MISR) from 2001 to 2016, to investigate the long-term trends in global and regional aerosol loading. Statistical models based on emission factors and meteorological parameters were developed to identify the main factors driving the inter-decadal changes of regional AOD and to quantify their contribution. Evaluation of the MERRA-2 AOD with the ground-based measurements of AERONET indicated significant spatial agreement on the global scale (r= 0.85, root-mean-square error = 0.12, mean fractional error = 38.7 %, fractional gross error = 9.86 % and index of agreement = 0.94). However, when AOD observations from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) were employed for independent verification, the results showed that MERRA-2 AODs generally underestimated CARSNET AODs in China (relative mean bias = 0.72 and fractional gross error =−34.3 %). In general, MERRA-2 was able to quantitatively reproduce the annual and seasonal AOD trends on both regional and global scales, as observed by MODIS/Terra, although some differences were found when compared to MISR. Over the 37-year period in this study, significant decreasing trends were observed over Europe and the eastern United States. In contrast, eastern China and southern Asia showed AOD increases, but the increasing trend of the former reversed sharply in the most recent decade. The statistical analyses suggested that the meteorological parameters explained a larger proportion of the AOD variability (20.4 %–72.8 %) over almost all regions of interest (ROIs) during 1980–2014 when compared with emission factors (0 %–56 %). Further analysis also showed that SO2 was the dominant emission factor, explaining 12.7 %–32.6 % of the variation in AOD over anthropogenic-aerosol-dominant regions, while black carbon or organic carbon was the leading factor over the biomass-burning-dominant (BBD) regions, contributing 24.0 %–27.7 % of the variation. Additionally, wind speed was found to be the leading meteorological parameter, explaining 11.8 %–30.3 % of the variance over the mineral-dust-dominant regions, while ambient humidity (including soil moisture and relative humidity) was the top meteorological parameter over the BBD regions, accounting for 11.7 %–35.5 % of the variation. The results of this study indicate that the variation in meteorological parameters is a key factor in determining the inter-decadal change in regional AOD.

Huizheng Che