Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “financial modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

A review of the solar array manufacturing industry costing standards

The solar array manufacturing industry costing standards model is designed to compare the cost of producing solar arrays using alternative manufacturing processes. Constructive criticism of the methodology used is intended to enhance its implementation as a practical design tool. Three main elements of the procedure include workbook format and presentation, theoretical model validity and standard financial parameters.

Source record↗

Five-Hole Flow Angle Probe Calibration for the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel

A spring 1997 test section calibration program is scheduled for the NASA Glenn Research Center Icing Research Tunnel following the installation of new water injecting spray bars. A set of new five-hole flow angle pressure probes was fabricated to properly calibrate the test section for total pressure, static pressure, and flow angle. The probes have nine pressure ports: five total pressure ports on a hemispherical head and four static pressure ports located 14.7 diameters downstream of the head. The probes were calibrated in the NASA Glenn 3.5-in.-diameter free-jet calibration facility. After completing calibration data acquisition for two probes, two data prediction models were evaluated. Prediction errors from a linear discrete model proved to be no worse than those from a full third-order multiple regression model. The linear discrete model only required calibration data acquisition according to an abridged test matrix, thus saving considerable time and financial resources over the multiple regression model that required calibration data acquisition according to a more extensive test matrix. Uncertainties in calibration coefficients and predicted values of flow angle, total pressure, static pressure. Mach number. and velocity were examined. These uncertainties consider the instrumentation that will be available in the Icing Research Tunnel for future test section calibration testing.

Gonsalez, Jose C.↗

Solar array manufacturing industry simulation

Solar Array Manufacturing Industry Simulation (SAMIS) program is a standardized model of industry to manufacture silicon solar modules for use in electricity generation. Model is used to develop financial reports that detail requirements, including amounts and prices for materials, labor, facilities, and equipment required by companies.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 12, No. 1

Topics discussed include: a) Data Mining Methods Applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Comparison to Standard Statistical Methods; b) Financial Comparisons across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry; c) Carving a Niche for the "No-Frills" Carrier, Air Arabia, in Oil-Rich Skies; d) Situational Leadership in Air Traffic Control; and e) The Very Light Jet Arrives: Stakeholders and Their Perceptions.

Bowers, Brent D.↗

REACH: Real-Time Data Awareness in Multi-Spacecraft Missions

Missions have been proposed that will use multiple spacecraft to perform scientific or commercial tasks. Indeed, in the commercial world, some spacecraft constellations already exist. Aside from the technical challenges of constructing and flying these missions, there is also the financial challenge presented by the tradition model of the flight operations team (FOT) when it is applied to a constellation mission. Proposed constellation missions range in size from three spacecraft to more than 50. If the current ratio of three-to-five FOT personnel per spacecraft is maintained, the size of the FOT becomes cost prohibitive. The Advanced Architectures and Automation Branch at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC Code 588) saw the potential to reduce the cost of these missions by creating new user interfaces to the ground system health-and-safety data. The goal is to enable a smaller FOT to remain aware and responsive to the increased amount of ground system information in a multi-spacecraft environment. Rather than abandon the tried and true, these interfaces were developed to run alongside existing ground system software to provide additional support to the FOT. These new user interfaces have been combined in a tool called REACH. REACH-the Real-time Evaluation and Analysis of Consolidated Health-is a software product that uses advanced visualization techniques to make spacecraft anomalies easy to spot, no matter how many spacecraft are in the constellation. REACH reads a real-time stream of data from the ground system and displays it to the FOT such that anomalies are easy to pick out and investigate. Data visualization has been used in ground system operations for many years. To provide a unique visualization tool, we developed a unique source of data to visualize: the REACH Health Model Engine. The Health Model Engine is rule-based software that receives real-time telemetry information and outputs "health" information related to the subsystems and spacecraft that the telemetry belong to. The Health Engine can run out-of-the-box or can be tailored with a scripting language. Out of the box, it uses limit violations to determine the health of subsystems and spacecraft; when tailored, it determines health using equations combining the values and limits of any telemetry in the spacecraft. The REACH visualizations then "roll up" the information from the Health Engine into high level, summary displays. These summary visualizations can be "zoomed" into for increasing levels of detail. Currently REACH is installed in the Small Explorer (SMEX) lab at GSFC, and is monitoring three of their five spacecraft. We are scheduled to install REACH in the Mid-sized Explorer (MIDEX) lab, which will allow us to monitor up to six more spacecraft. The process of installing and using our "research" software in an operational environment has provided many insights into which parts of REACH are a step forward and which of our ideas are missteps. Our paper explores both the new concepts in spacecraft health-and-safety visualization, the difficulties of such systems in the operational environment, and the cost and safety issues of multi-spacecraft missions.

Maks, Lori↗

Out of This World: A University Partnership Model for Functional Clothing Design

University collaborations with external partners can be difficult to initiate, especially in early-stage or emerging topics. External collaborators may be reluctant to commit the level of funding required to ensure that the topic is given adequate attention, and low-stakes mechanisms are relatively rare. Here, we present a successful model for collaboration between universities and NASA, which uses existing project-based coursework as a vehicle for exploration of emerging topics. This model leverages existing structures, reducing the financial and intellectual commitment of both University and NASA research partners, and facilitating pilot investigations for exploration of potential areas for more in-depth research. We outline the logistical structure and benefits for University and NASA partners over 1.5 years of collaboration.

Dunne, Lucy E.↗

Global Gridded Crop Models Underestimate Yield Responses to Droughts and Heatwaves

Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and compared observed and simulated impact of past droughts and heatwaves on yields for four crops (maize, rice, soy, wheat). We found that most models detect but underestimate the impact of droughts and heatwaves on yield. Specifically, the drought signal was detected by 12 of 13 models for maize and all models for wheat, while the heat signal was detected by eleven models for maize and six models for wheat. To investigate whether the difference between simulated and observed yield declines is due to a misrepresentation of simulated exposure to heat or water scarcity (i.e. misrepresentation of growing season), we analysed the relationship between average discrepancies between observed and simulated yield losses, and average simulated exposure to extreme weather conditions across all crop models. We found a positive correlation between simulated exposure to heat and model performance for heatwaves, but found no correlation for droughts. This suggests that there is a systematic underestimation of yield responses to heat and drought and not only a misrepresentation of exposure. Assuming that performance for the past indicates models' capacity to project future yield impacts, models likely underestimate future yield decline from climate change. High-quality temporally and spatially resolved observational data on growing seasons will be highly valuable to further improve crop models' capacity to adequately respond to extreme weather events.

extreme events↗

An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

Kneafsey, J. T.↗

Man power/cost estimation model: Automated planetary projects

A manpower/cost estimation model is developed which is based on a detailed level of financial analysis of over 30 million raw data points which are then compacted by more than three orders of magnitude to the level at which the model is applicable. The major parameter of expenditure is manpower (specifically direct labor hours) for all spacecraft subsystem and technical support categories. The resultant model is able to provide a mean absolute error of less than fifteen percent for the eight programs comprising the model data base. The model includes cost saving inheritance factors, broken down in four levels, for estimating follow-on type programs where hardware and design inheritance are evident or expected.

Kitchen, L. D.↗

Productivity Analysis of Public and Private Airports: A Causal Investigation

Around the world, airports are being viewed as enterprises, rather than public services, which are expected to be managed efficiently and provide passengers with courteous customer services. Governments are, increasingly, turning to the private sectors for their efficiency in managing the operation, financing, and development, as well as providing security for airports. Operational and financial performance evaluation has become increasingly important to airport operators due to recent trends in airport privatization. Assessing performance allows the airport operators to plan for human resources and capital investment as efficiently as possible. Productivity measurements may be used as comparisons and guidelines in strategic planning, in the internal analysis of operational efficiency and effectiveness, and in assessing the competitive position of an airport in transportation industry. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the operational and financial efficiencies of 22 major airports in the United States and Europe. These airports are divided into three groups based on private ownership (7 British Airport Authority airports), public ownership (8 major United States airports), and a mix of private and public ownership (7 major European Union airports. The detail ownership structures of these airports are presented in Appendix A. Total factor productivity (TFP) model was utilized to measure airport performance in terms of financial and operational efficiencies and to develop a benchmarking tool to identify the areas of strength and weakness. A regression model was then employed to measure the relationship between TFP and ownership structure. Finally a Granger causality test was performed to determine whether ownership structure is a Granger cause of TFP. The results of the analysis presented in this paper demonstrate that there is not a significant relationship between airport TFP and ownership structure. Airport productivity and efficiency is, however dependent upon the level of competition, choice of the market, and regulatory control.

Vasigh, Bijan↗

The economics of satellite retrieval

The economics of space operations with and without the Space Station have been studied in terms of the financial performance of a typical communications-satellite business venture. A stochastic Monte-Carlo communications-satellite business model is employed which includes factors such as satellite configuration, random and wearout failures, reliability of launch and space operations, stand-down time resulting from failures, and insurance by operation. Financial performance impacts have been evaluated in terms of the magnitude of investment, net present value, and return on investment.

Price, Kent M.↗

Economics of wind energy for utilities

Utility acceptance of this technology will be contingent upon the establishment of both its technical and economic feasibility. This paper presents preliminary results from a study currently underway to establish the economic value of central station wind energy to certain utility systems. The results for the various utilities are compared specifically in terms of three parameters which have a major influence on the economic value: (1) wind resource, (2) mix of conventional generation sources, and (3) specific utility financial parameters including projected fuel costs. The wind energy is derived from modeling either MOD-2 or MOD-0A wind turbines in wind resources determined by a year of data obtained from the DOE supported meteorological towers with a two-minute sampling frequency. In this paper, preliminary results for six of the utilities studied are presented and compared.

Mccabe, T. F.↗

Improved Space Weather Observations and Modeling for Aviation Radiation

In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies and operations to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress and in situ atmospheric radiation measurements made available for real-time situational awareness. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

space weather↗

Future mission studies: Forecasting solar flux directly from its chaotic time series

The mathematical structure of the programs written to construct a nonlinear predictive model to forecast solar flux directly from its time series without reference to any underlying solar physics is presented. This method and the programs are written so that one could apply the same technique to forecast other chaotic time series, such as geomagnetic data, attitude and orbit data, and even financial indexes and stock market data. Perhaps the most important application of this technique to flight dynamics is to model Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) output of residues between observed position of spacecraft and calculated position with no drag (drag flag = off). This would result in a new model of drag working directly from observed data.

Ashrafi, S.↗

A normative price for energy from an electricity generation system: An Owner-dependent Methodology for Energy Generation (system) Assessment (OMEGA). Volume 2: Derivation of system energy price equations

The methodology presented is a derivation of the utility owned solar electric systems model. The net present value of the system is determined by consideration of all financial benefits and costs including a specified return on investment. Life cycle costs, life cycle revenues, and residual system values are obtained. Break-even values of system parameters are estimated by setting the net present value to zero.

Chamberlain, R. G.↗

On the Use of NASA Earth Observations to Characterize the 2012 US Drought

As the harvest season approached in August 2012, much of the United States remained in the grip of a major drought. According to the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), 52 percent of the United States and Puerto Rico was in moderate drought conditions or worse by August 7, 2012 (see Figure 1a). Drought areas were concentrated in the agricultural states in the central U.S.A. The drought threatened global food prices and US biofuel feedstocks. Although areas east of the Mississippi River experienced some relief due to Hurricane Isaac, the drought persisted west of the Mississippi River Basin. The USDA Economic Research Service reports about 80 percent of the US agriculture experienced drought in 2012 making it the most extensive drought since the 1950's. The Financial Times reported 2012 losses at roughly $30 billion dollars. NASA maintains satellite and modelling capabilities that enable the assessment of drought severity and extent on a national and global basis.

water management↗

Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems

Water-resources planners use regional water management models (WMMs) to identify vulnerabilities to climate change. Frequently, dynamically downscaled climate inputs are used in conjunction with land-surface models (LSMs) to provide hydrologic streamflow projections, which serve as critical inputs for WMMs. Here, we show how even modest projection errors can strongly affect assessments of water availability and financial stability for irrigation districts in California. Specifically, our results highlight that LSM errors in projections of flood and drought extremes are highly interactive across timescales, path-dependent, and can be amplified when modeling infrastructure systems (e.g., misrepresenting banked groundwater). Common strategies for reducing errors in deterministic LSM hydrologic projections (e.g., bias correction) can themselves strongly distort projected climate vulnerabilities and misrepresent their inferred financial consequences. Overall, our results indicate a need to move beyond standard deterministic climate projection and error management frameworks that are dependent on single simulated climate change scenario outcomes.

Keyvan Malek↗

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems The National Academies have prioritized the pursuit of new scientific discoveries using diverse and temporally coordinated measurements from multiple ground and space-based observatories. Networked communications can enable such measurements by connecting individual observatories and allowing them to operate as a cohesive and purposefully designed system. Timely data flows across terrestrial and space communications networks are required to observe transient scientific events and processes. Currently, communications to space-based observatories experience large latencies due to manual service reservation and scheduling procedures, intermittent signal coverage, and network capacity constraints. If space communications network latencies could be reduced, new discoveries about dynamic scientific processes could be realized. However, science mission and network planners lack a systematic framework for defining, quantifying and evaluating timely space data flow implementation options for transient scientific observation scenarios involving multiple ground and space-based observatories. This dissertation presents a model-based systems engineering approach to investigate and develop network solutions to meet the needs of transient science space systems. First, a systematic investigation of the current transient science operations of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) space data network and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory resulted in a formal architectural model for transient science space systems. Two methods individual missions may use to achieve timely network services were defined, quantitatively modeled, and experimentally compared. Next, the architectural model was extended to describe two alternative ways to achieve timely and autonomous space data flows to multiple space-based observatories within the context of a purposefully designed transient science observation scenario. A quantitative multipoint space data flow modeling method based in queueing theory was defined. General system suitability metrics for timeliness, throughput, and capacity were specified to support the evaluation of alternative network data flow implementations. A hypothetical design study was performed to demonstrate the multipoint data flow modeling method and to evaluate alternative data flow implementations using TDRS. The merits of a proposed future TDRS broadcast service to implement multipoint data flows were quantified and compared to expected outcomes using the as-built TDRS network. Then, the architectural model was extended to incorporate commercial network service providers. Quantitative models for Globalstar and Iridium short messaging data services were developed based on publicly available sources. Financial cost was added to the set of system suitability metrics. The hypothetical design study was extended to compare the relative suitability of the as-built TDRS network with the commercial Globalstar and Iridium networks. Finally, results from this research are being applied by NASA missions and network planners. In 2020, Swift implemented the first automated command pipeline, increasing its expected gravitational wave follow-up detection rate by greater than 400%. Current NASA technology initiatives informed by this research will enable future space-based observatories to become interoperable sensing devices connected by a diverse ecosystem of network service providers.

Christopher J. Roberts↗