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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Shock tube simulations for the three-layer Richtmyer–Meshkov instability with single-mode and multimode perturbations

While the canonical two-component, single-mode Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) has been extensively studied, relatively less work has focused on the effects of an additional intermediate-density middle layer. This work investigates such three-material RMI configurations at two Atwood number scenarios using the ARES hydrodynamics code. After validation against previous experimental and computational studies, setups corresponding to recent three-layer shock tube experiments are simulated. Cases with both single-mode and multimode perturbations are studied to quantify mixing across the interface between the materials with highest and intermediate density. In particular, this work is able to comprehensibly examine differences between two- and three-dimensional setups for the single-mode and multimode problems. Observations from previous two-layer investigations still apply in the three-layer setup, but over the time horizons considered, there appears to be insufficient nonlinear mode coupling to create significant differences between two- and three-dimensional simulations following the first passage of a shock. Finally, additional reshock simulations have additional nonlinear growth that does result in expected differences between two- and three-dimensional cases in this three-layer setup, but significant differences do not manifest during the time horizon studied.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Infrastructure and DFLAW Support at Hanford - 20443

Manhattan Project era infrastructure systems are degrading at an accelerated pace across the Department of Energy's (DOE) Environmental Management complex. Revitalizing, rejuvenating and right-sizing these systems to ensure reliability for ongoing cleanup missions is a major focus at the 580-square- mile Hanford Site in southeast Washington State. The push to complete construction, commissioning, startup, and operation of facilities and systems in the Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) program at Hanford by 2023 requires considerable coordination among site contractors and a significant investment in infrastructure. The passage of time also poses a challenge. It has been about 75 years since facilities were first operated at the site, and approximately 40 years of plutonium production created a legacy of unidentified active and abandoned underground obstacles and waste sites that must be avoided when building and upgrading the infrastructure. Converting infrastructure systems originally built to support plutonium production from the 1940's to the 1980's and upgrading those systems to optimize technology is an ever-changing balance of funding profiles, available resources and execution strategies. The DOE Richland Operations Office (RL) has long recognized the need for increased investment in Hanford Site infrastructure to support the future processing of approximately 56 million gallons of waste currently stored in large underground tanks. When DFLAW is fully operational, safe and reliable infrastructure systems will be needed to ensure continuity of operations around the clock, 365 days a year. These include roadways, water, power, sewer, information technology systems and facilities. To ensure the readiness of Hanford's infrastructure to support treating tank waste in the next three years, 15 projects were identified with a combined value of $133.8 million. Through calendar year 2019, 7 infrastructure projects have been substantially completed and the remaining 8 projects, with a remaining value of $103.8 million, are scheduled to be completed by December 2023. RL and its site services/infrastructure contractor, Mission Support Alliance (MSA), regularly evaluate the needs of the DFLAW program and other Hanford Site missions to ensure the highest priority systems are addressed. In addition to a fast-approaching deadline for round-the-clock treatment operations, RL and MSA face another significant infrastructure challenge. As cleanup is being completed in a 220-square-mile area called the River Corridor, most of the cleanup operations going forward will occur in a 20-square-mile area in the center of the Hanford Site, known as the Central Plateau. Infrastructure systems are becoming more congested in an already overcrowded area. This paper/presentation will outline some of the challenges Hanford faces while executing infrastructure reliability projects. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compressible pairwise interaction extended point-particle model for force prediction of shock-particle bed interaction

We propose a pairwise influence framework for the complex unsteady compressible particle-laden flow problem by accounting for the scattered hydrodynamic waves emitting from neighboring particles in a Euler-Lagrange simulation. It has been observed from particle-resolved (PR) simulations of randomly dispersed particle beds under a loading shock that the compressible pseudoturbulence dominates the flow system even after the primary shock has passed, which causes fluctuations observed in the forces experienced by the particle. Moreover, the fact that each particle exists in the vicinity of a random arrangement of other particles modifies the time history of the drag force experienced by each particle during and after the passage of the shock. First, the scattering flow field due to an incoming shock interacting with a single sphere is constructed using an analysis of the flow in the acoustic limit. Then we examine the validity of the compressible Maxey-Riley-Gatignol force model by comparing the force prediction against a PR simulation of two interacting particles for various particle arrangements and incoming shock strength. Subsequently, the neighboring influences are stored as a library of maps that can be used readily in the calculation of the perturbation force. Lastly, the pairwise interaction assumption is evaluated by comparing the force predicted with the model with PR simulations of a randomly packed particle bed of 10% volume fraction for both water and air as the fluid medium for an incoming shock Mach number 1.22. With a considerably lower cost for the implementation of the model compared to PR simulations, it is verified that the model is reasonably accurate in pinpointing particles whose peak force is significantly larger or smaller than the mean drag but also to capture the prolonged fluctuations after the initial shock.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining quenching time-scales in galaxy clusters by forward-modelling stellar ages and quiescent fractions in projected phase space

We forward-model mass-weighted stellar ages (MWAs) and quiescent fractions (f Q ) in projected phase space (PPS), using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, to jointly constrain an infall quenching model for galaxies in log (M vir /M ⊙ ) > 14 galaxy clusters at z ∼ 0. We find the average deviation in MWA from the MWA–M⋆ relation depends on position in PPS, with a maximum difference between the inner cluster and infalling interloper galaxies of ∼1 Gyr. Our model employs infall information from N-body simulations and stochastic star-formation histories from the universemachine model. We find total quenching times of t Q = 3.7 ± 0.4 Gyr and t Q = 4.0 ± 0.2 Gyr after first pericentre, for 9 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10 and 10 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10.5 galaxies, respectively. By using MWAs, we break the degeneracy in time of quenching onset and time-scale of star formation rate (SFR) decline. We find that time of quenching onset relative to pericentre is $t_{\mathrm{delay}}=3.5^{+0.6}_{-0.9}$ Gyr and $t_{\mathrm{delay}}=-0.3^{+0.8}_{-1.0}$ Gyr for 9 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10 and 10 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10.5 galaxies, respectively, and exponential SFR suppression time-scales are τenv ≤ 1.0 Gyr for 9 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10 galaxies and τenv ∼ 2.3 Gyr for 10 < log (M ⋆ /M ⊙ ) < 10.5 galaxies. Stochastic star formation histories remove the need for rapid infall quenching to maintain the bimodality in the SFR of cluster galaxies; the depth of the green valley prefers quenching onsets close to first pericentre and a longer quenching envelope, in slight tension with the MWA-driven results. Taken together these results suggest that quenching begins close to, or just after pericentre, but the time-scale for quenching to be fully complete is much longer and therefore ram-pressure stripping is not complete on first pericentric passage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Sediment Management and Monitoring Database

Overview This dataset compiles dam sediment management and monitoring information from surveys, case studies, and journal articles. Additionally, features described by the National Inventory of Dams (i.e., presence of sluice gates) are included to indicate known infrastructure features that may address sediment releases. The location and description of records from downstream monitoring gages are catalogued in order to help with tracking conditions over time (e.g., before and after management actions, as operations change, etc.). The data help address national scale understanding of challenges and solutions related to the accumulation of sediment behind a dam as well as downstream passage. Sediment trapping causes problems as it reduces storage capacity, disrupts dam and reservoir function, impedes access for recreation, alters water quality/habitat conditions, and contributes to riverbank and coastal erosion within the reservoir. Data compilation from a variety of sources is a first step towards assessing system-wide efficacy of management solutions. This dataset was developed under the Water Power Technologies Office funded effort which began as a Seedling on Reservoir Sedimentation Data, and was supported by the Reservoir Sedimentation Modeling Framework and Data Analysis project. These projects have addressed challenges in describing sediment transport, trapping, and management at dams throughout the US. Methodology An outer join on dams/reservoirs with surveys and survey reports (documented in the RESSED database, USBR or USACE databases, project websites, etc.) with the National Inventory of Dams, based on the NIDID to determine dams with documented management and/or sluice gates. Additional dams with documented management activity were identified through review of technical articles from the past 25 years in Journal of Hydrology, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Geomorphology, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Water, Journal of Cleaner Production, International Journal of Sediment Research, Nature Scientific Reports, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, and Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Individual records were created for each survey or management activity documented. To evaluate downstream sediment monitoring records, the nhdPlusTools and dataRetrieval packages in R were used to find gages within 10km of each dam in the management database. Length of record and location of matched gages were retrieved for those parameters relevant to sediment concentration or total sediment discharge.

Hansen, Carly [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000193280838)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark matter clumps as sources of gravitational-wave glitches in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data

We consider the hypothetical possibility that nonstationary glitch features in the noise of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors could be produced by small dark matter clumps that pass through the earth in the vicinity of gravitational-wave detectors. Here, we first derive the gravitational-wave strain that would be generated by the passage of such a dark matter clump. We find that the strain is primarily sourced by the Newtonian gravitational acceleration of the mirrors toward the clump and by the Shapiro time delay of the photons in the laser beams as they pass through the gravitational potential created by the dark matter clump. We also find that the Newtonian acceleration effect dominates the gravitational-wave strain for both ground and space-based interferometers. We then compare our dark matter clump, gravitational-wave strain model to 84 Koi-Fish glitches detected during the second observing run of the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA Collaboration through a Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian analysis. We find that all glitches but nine can be confidently rejected as having originated from dark matter clumps. For the remaining glitches, the dark matter hypothesis cannot be excluded, and the maximum a posteriori parameters yield minimum densities of about 10 −7 g⁡/cm 3 , within the model. These results allow us to place the first direct upper limits with gravitational-wave detectors on the local over-density of dark matter in the form of clumps in the local neighborhood of Earth, namely 𝜌 DM ⁢clumps ≲ 10 −15 g⁡/cm −3 .

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conical Intersection Passages of Molecules Probed by X-ray Diffraction and Stimulated Raman Spectroscopy

Conical intersections (CoIns) play an important role in ultrafast relaxation channels. Their monitoring remains a formidable experimental challenge. We theoretically compare the probing of the S 2 → S 1 CoIn passage in 4-thiouracil by monitoring its vibronic coherences, using off-resonant X-ray-stimulated Raman spectroscopy (TRUECARS) and time resolved X-ray diffraction (TRXD). The quantum nuclear wavepacket (WP) dynamics provides an accurate picture of the photoinduced dynamics. Upon photoexcitation, the WP oscillates among the Franck–Condon point, the S2 minimum, and the CoIn with a 70 fs period. A vibronic coherence first emerges at 20 fs and can be observed until the S 2 state is fully depopulated. The distribution of the vibronic frequencies involved in the coherence is recorded by the TRUECARS spectrogram. Here, the TRXD signal provides spatial images of electron densities associated with the CoIn. In combination, the two signals provide a complementary picture of the nonadiabatic passage, which helps in the study of the underlying photophysics in thiobases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of directed flow in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s{NN}}$ = 19.6 and 27 GeV with the STAR event plane detector

In heavy-ion collision experiments, the global collectivity of final-state particles can be quantified by anisotropic flow coefficients (𝑣 𝑛 ) . The first-order flow coefficient, also referred to as the directed flow (𝑣 1 ), describes the collective sideward motion of produced particles and nuclear fragments in heavy-ion collisions. It carries information on the very early stage of the collision, especially at large pseudorapidity (𝜂), where it is believed to be generated during the nuclear passage time. Directed flow therefore probes the onset of bulk collective dynamics during thermalization, providing valuable experimental guidance to models of the pre-equilibrium stage. In 2018, the Event Plane Detector (EPD) was installed in STAR and used for the Beam Energy Scan phase-II (BES-II) data taking. The combination of EPD (2.1 < |𝜂| < 5.1) and high-statistics BES-II data enables us to extend the 𝑣 1 measurement to the forward and backward 𝜂 regions. In this paper, we present the measurement of 𝑣 1 over a wide 𝜂 range in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 and 27 GeV using the STAR EPD. The results of the analysis at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 19.6 GeV exhibit excellent consistency with the previous PHOBOS measurement, while elevating the precision of the overall measurement. The increased precision of the measurement also revealed finer structures in heavy-ion collisions, including a potential observation of the first-order event-plane decorrelation. Multiple physics models were compared to the experimental results. Only a transport model and a three-fluid hybrid model can reproduce a sizable 𝑣 1 at large 𝜂 as was observed experimentally. The model comparison also indicates 𝑣 1 at large 𝜂 might be sensitive to the QGP phase transition.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Using acoustic telemetry for high-resolution sablefish movement informing potential interactions with a tidal turbine

As the MHK industry moves forward to the commercial phase, knowledge of potential environmental effects need to be documented and established. At present, the potential for fish interactions and subsequent injury or mortality are a significant concern with instream turbines. Sensors, methodologies, and analyses need to be developed to detect collision or near-miss events. These data will reduce uncertainty of the likelihood of such events and provide information to regulators to make informed decisions on permitting and possible mitigation measures if needed. Acoustic telemetry is a primary method for studying fine-scale fish movements because it can remotely track fish in three dimensions with accuracy. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has proven effective for fish passage estimates and fine-scale movement in river impoundments and near dams. Leveraging the success of previous JSATS applications and applying it to the marine environment, juvenile sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) were tagged and tracked using a fixed-position receiver array in a marine tidal channel for the first time. Applying this technology to future installations of MHK turbines will provide information on fish avoidance and evasion behavior as well as blade strike and potential injury and mortality.

Staines, Garrett J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Four metrics

A central idea in general relativity is that physics should not depend on the spacetime coordinates in use. But the qualitative description of various phenomena can appear superficially quite different. Furthermore, we consider falling into a classical black hole using four distinct but equivalent metrics. First is the Schwarzschild case, with extreme time dilation at the horizon. Second, rescaling the dilation allows falling into the hole in finite proper time. Third, time and space are rescaled into a Penrose motivated picture where light trajectories all have unit slope. Fourth, a white hole variation of the second metric allows passage out through the horizon, with reentry forbidden.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Outgrowth of erlotinib-resistant subpopulations recapitulated in patient-derived lung tumor spheroids and organoids

A model that recapitulates development of acquired therapeutic resistance is needed to improve oncology drug development and patient outcomes. To achieve this end, we established methods for the preparation and growth of spheroids from primary human lung adenocarcinomas, including methods to culture, passage, monitor growth, and evaluate changes in mutational profile over time. Primary lung tumor spheroids were cultured in Matrigel® with varying concentrations of erlotinib, a small molecule kinase inhibitor of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) that is ineffective against KRAS mutant cells. Subtle changes in spheroid size and number were observed within the first two weeks of culture. Spheroids were cultured for up to 24 weeks, during which time interactions between different cell types, movement, and assembly into heterogeneous organoid structures were documented. Allele-specific competitive blocker PCR (ACB-PCR) was used to quantify low frequency BRAF V600E, KRAS G12D, KRAS G12V, and PIK3CA H1047R mutant subpopulations in tumor tissue residue (TR) samples and cultured spheroids. Mutant subpopulations, including multiple mutant subpopulations, were quite prevalent. Twelve examples of mutant enrichment were found in eight of the 14 tumors analyzed, based on the criteria that a statistically-significant increase in mutant fraction was observed relative to both the TR and the no-erlotinib control. Of the mutants quantified in erlotinib-treated cultures, PIK3CA H1047 mutant subpopulations increased most often (5/14 tumors), which is consistent with clinical observations. Thus, this ex vivo lung tumor spheroid model replicates the cellular and mutational tumor heterogeneity of human lung adenocarcinomas and can be used to assess the outgrowth of mutant subpopulations. Spheroid cultures with characterized mutant subpopulations could be used to investigate the efficacy of lung cancer combination therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensing ultrashort electronic coherent beating at conical intersections by single-electron pulses

In a theoretical study, we present an ultrafast technique for probing time-dependent molecular charge densities. An ultrafast optical pump first brings the molecule into an electronic nonstationary state. This is followed by coherent inelastic scattering of a broadband single-electron probe pulse with a variable delay T, which is detected spectrally. The technique is applied to reveal phase-sensitive background-free coherent electron beating in the conical intersection passage in uracil and reveals the otherwise elusive coherent beating of strongly coupled electrons and nuclei.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Removal, distribution and retention of metals in a constructed wetland over 20 years

The A-01 wetland treatment system (WTS) was designed to remove metals (primarily copper) from the effluent at the A-01 National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) outfall at the Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC. This research investigated metal removal, distribution and retention in the A-01 WTS over a period of 20 years. The findings are important for ensuring continued metal sequestration in the A-01 WTSs over time, providing management guidance for constructed wetlands, and investigating changes in metal remediation effectiveness as a wetland ages. During 20 years of operation, systematic water and sediment sampling validated the wetlands' performance. After passage through the treatment cells, Cu concentrations were well below permit limits during all years of operation, often falling below 10 μg L -1 . Cu removal has been consistent over time, averaging about 80% despite large changes in influent Cu concentrations. Most divalent metals were rapidly removed from the water and held in the sediments shortly after the water entered the treatment wetland. Average removal of Pb from water by the wetland system was 67 and 74% in 2004 and 2020, respectively. Comparable values for Zn were 52 and 65%, respectively. Generally, the highest concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn were found in the sediment from the first cell in each pair of cells suggesting that most of the Cu, Pb, and Zn in the A-01 effluent was bound to the sediment quickly. Diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) measurements of Cu and Zn in the sediments were much lower than bulk sediment concentrations. These results suggest that most of the Cu and Zn in the A-01 WTS sediments was not bioavailable, hence not toxic to aquatic organisms, as a likely consequence of adsorption to sediment particles and complexation with organic and inorganic substances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance of the A-01 Constructed Wetland over 20 Years

The A-01 wetland treatment system (WTS) was designed to remove metals from the effluent at the A-01 National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) outfall at the Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC. The A-01 effluent flows from a retention basin to a splitter box, where it is distributed to four pairs of cells in series before discharge to a stream. Each treatment cell is a one-acre wetland that contains Schoenoplectus californicus (giant bulrush) and has a nominal 24-hour retention time. The purpose of this research was to investigate metal removal, distribution and retention in the A-01 WTS over a period of 20 years. During 20 years of operation, systematic water and sediment sampling validated the wetlands' performance. After passage through the treatment cells, Cu concentrations were well below permit limits (22 pg L -1 ) during all years of operation, often falling below 10 pg L -1 . Cu removal has been consistent over time, averaging about 80% despite large changes in influent Cu concentrations. Most divalent metals were rapidly removed from the water and held in the sediments shortly after the water entered the treatment wetlands. Average removal of Pb from water by the wetland system was 67 and 74%, respectively, in 2004, and 2020. Comparable values for Zn were 52 and 65%, respectively. Generally, the highest concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn were found in the sediment from the first cell in each pair of cells suggesting that most of the Cu, Pb, and Zn in the A-01 effluent was bound to the sediment quickly. Diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) measurements of Cu and Zn in the sediments were much lower than bulk sediment concentrations. These results suggest that most of the Cu and Zn in the A-01 WTS sediments was not bioavailable, hence not toxic to aquatic organisms, as a likely consequence of adsorption to sediment particles and complexation with organic and inorganic substances.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation of d(t,n) α Neutrons Following d(d,p)t Reactions in a Deuterium Gas Cell: An Attempt to Repeat Ruhlig’s 1938 Observation of Secondary Reactions

In order to benchmark methods used to calculate reaction-in-flight fusion reactions in inertial confinement fusion and address issues related to the first claimed observation of d(t,n)α reactions in 1938, secondary d(t,n)α reactions have been observed following d(d,p)t reactions in deuterium gas. A pulsed 200-nA, 2.2-MeV deuterium beam from the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory FN tandem accelerator was injected into a cylindrical multiatmosphere deuterium gas target. The incident beam traversed along the target cylinder’s 3-cm symmetry axis after its passage through a Havar entrance foil. Two different Havar foil thicknesses were used to obtain 1.5- and 0.6-MeV deuteron beams entering the deuterium cell. The cylinder’s radius was 2 cm to allow for d(d,p)t tritons emitted perpendicular to the beam to range out in the deuterium gas. The neutron emission from the cell was observed via its time of flight to a liquid scintillator placed at various angles to the beam direction, at a distance of 243 cm. Pulse-shape-discrimination techniques were used to separate neutron and gamma-ray signals seen in the liquid scintillator. The observed probability of ~2 × 10 –4 for inducing secondary d(t,n)α fusion in the gas cell per d(d,p)t reaction is consistent with theoretical expectations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-spectral-resolution X-Ray Observations of the Evolved Supermassive Stellar Binary System η Carinae: Fe K α Band Profile Revealed with XRISM

The supermassive binary system, η Carinae, is experiencing enormous wind-driven mass loss at a rate unparalleled in the rest of the Galaxy. Their wind–wind collision (WWC) continuously produces shock heated, X-ray-emitting plasmas. The XRISM X-ray observatory observed the system in 2023 and 2024 when the X-ray emission began to increase toward periastron passage in 2025. This paper reports unprecedentedly high-resolution X-ray spectra in the Fe Kα band between 6.2 and 7.1 keV, obtained with the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter. The hydrogen-like (Lyα) and helium-like (Heα) lines reveal three velocity components. Two of them are broadened with maximum velocities of 2000–3000 km s −1 , likely originating from the postshock companion wind. The other is relatively narrow, with a Gaussian broadening of only ∼290 km s −1 in 1σ, which may originate from the postshock companion wind at the WWC stagnation point or penetrating the primary wind. The Fe fluorescent lines exhibit a moderate blueshift and broadening with velocities at 100–200 km s −1 , consistent with the primary wind’s velocity field. The spectra also confirm a Compton shoulder of the Heα line complex for the first time. Both fluorescing and scattering spectral profiles indicate that the binary system is seen from the companion side during these observations. The flux ratio of the Compton-scattering emission to the fluorescent line suggests substantial hydrogen depletion of the primary wind, expected from CNO-cycled hydrogen nuclear fusion gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗