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How MAG4 Improves Space Weather Forecasting

Dangerous space weather is driven by solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). Forecasting flares and CMEs is the first step to forecasting either dangerous space weather or All Clear. MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events.

Falconer, David↗

Comment on 'The solar flare myth' by J. T. Gosling

In a recent paper Gosling (1993) claims that solar flares are relatively unimportant for understanding the terrestrial consequences of solar activity, and argues that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produce the most powerful terrestrial disturbances. This opinion conflicts with observation, as it is well known that CMEs and flares are closely associated, and we disagree with Gosling's insistence on a simplistic cause-and-effect description of the interrelated phenomena of a solar flare. In this brief response we present new Yohkoh data and review older results that demonstrate the close relationships among CMEs, flares, filament eruptions, and other forms of energy release such as particle acceleration.

Hudson, Hugh↗

The Main Sequence of Explosive Solar Active Regions: Comparison of Emerging and Mature Active Regions

For mature active regions, an active region s magnetic flux content determines the maximum free energy the active region can have. Most Large flares and CMEs occur in active regions that are near their free-energy limit. Active-region flare power radiated in the GOES 1-8 band increases steeply as the free-energy limit is approached. We infer that the free-energy limit is set by the rate of release of an active region s free magnetic energy by flares, CMEs and coronal heating balancing the maximum rate the Sun can put free energy into the active region s magnetic field. This balance of maximum power results in explosive active regions residing in a "mainsequence" in active-region (flux content, free energy content) phase space, which sequence is analogous to the main sequence of hydrogen-burning stars in (mass, luminosity) phase space.

Falconer, David↗

Coronal mass ejections and major solar flares: The great active center of March 1989

The solar flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) events associated with the large and complex March 1989 active region are discussed. This active region gave us a chance to study the relation of CME with truly major solar flares. The work concentrates on questions of the relation of CMEs and flares to one another and to other types of activity on the Sun. As expected, some major (X-3B class) flares had associated CMEs. However, an unexpected finding is that others did not. In fact, there is strong evidence that the X4-4B flare of March 9th had no CME. This lack of a CME for such an outstanding flare event has important implications to theories of CME causation.Apparently, not all major flares cause CMEs or are caused by CMEs. The relations between CMEs and other types of solar activity are also discussed. No filament disappearances are reported for major CMEs studied here. Comparing these results with other studies, CMEs occur in association with flares and with erupting prominences, but neither are required for a CME. The relation between solar structures showing flaring without filament eruptions and structures showing filament eruptions without flares becomes important. The evolutionary relation between an active flaring sunspot region and extensive filaments without sunspots is reviewed, and the concept of an 'evolving magnetic structure' (EMS) is introduced. It is suggested that all CMEs arise in EMSs and that CMEs provide a major path through which azimuthal magnetic fields escape form the Sun during the solar cycle.

Feynman, Joan↗

Properties of Ground Level Enhancement Events and the Associated Solar Eruptions During Solar Cycle 23

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. We present an overview of the observed properties of the GLEs and those of the two associated phenomena, viz., flares and CMEs, both being potential sources of particle acceleration. Although we do not find a striking correlation between the GLE intensity and the parameters of flares and CMEs, the solar eruptions are very intense involving X-class flares and extreme CME speeds (average approx. 2000 km/s). An M7.1 flare and a 1200 km/s CME are the weakest events in the list of 16 GLE events. Most (80 %) of the CMEs are full halos with the three non-halos having widths in the range 167 to 212 degrees. The active regions in which the GLE events originate are generally large: 1290 msh (median 1010 msh) compared to 934 msh (median: 790 msh) for SEP-producing active regions. For accurate estimation of the CME height at the time of metric type II onset and GLE particle release, we estimated the initial acceleration of the CMEs using flare and CME observations. The initial acceleration of GLE-associated CMEs is much larger (by a factor of 2) than that of ordinary CMEs (2.3 km/sq s vs. 1 km/sq s). We confirmed the initial acceleration for two events for which CME measurements are available in the inner corona. The GLE particle release is delayed with respect to the onset of all electromagnetic signatures of the eruptions: type II bursts, low frequency type III bursts, soft X-ray flares and CMEs. The presence of metric type II radio bursts some 17 min (median: 16 min; range: 3 to 48 min) before the GLE onset indicates shock formation well before the particle release. The release of GLE particles occurs when the CMEs reach an average height of approx 3.09 R(sub s) (median: 3.18 R (sub s) ; range: 1.71 to 4.01 R (sub s) ) for well-connected events (source longitude in the range W20–W90). For poorly connected events, the average CME height at GLE particle release is ∼66 % larger (mean: 5.18 R (sub s) ; median: 4.61 R (sub s) ; range: 2.75–8.49 R (sub s) ). The longitudinal dependence is consistent with shock accelerations because the shocks from poorly connected events need to expand more to cross the field lines connecting to an Earth observer. On the other hand, the CME height at metric type II burst onset has no longitudinal dependence because electromagnetic signals do not require magnetic connectivity to the observer. For several events, the GLE particle release is very close to the time of first appearance of the CME in the coronagraphic field of view, so we independently confirmed the CME height at particle release. The CME height at metric type II burst onset is in the narrow range 1.29 to 1.8 R(sub s), with mean and median values of 1.53 and 1.47 R(sub s). The CME heights at metric type II burst onset and GLE particle release correspond to the minimum and maximum in the Alfven speed profile. The increase in CME speed between these two heights suggests an increase in Alfvenic Mach number from 2 to 3. The CME heights at GLE particle release are in good agreement with those obtained from the velocity dispersion analysis, including the source longitude dependence. We also discuss the implications of the delay of GLE particle release with respect to complex type III bursts by approx 18 min (median: 16 in; range: 2 to 44 min) for the flare acceleration mechanism. A similar analysis is also performed on the delay of particle release relative to the hard X-ray emission.

Geomagnetic Storms↗

Solar Eruptions: Coronal Mass Ejections and Flares

This lecture introduces the topic of Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares, collectively known as solar eruptions. During solar eruptions, the released energy flows out from the Sun in the form of magnetized plasma and electromagnetic radiation. The electromagnetic radiation suddenly increases the ionization content of the ionosphere, thus impacting communication and navigation systems. Flares can be eruptive or confined. Eruptive flares accompany CMEs, while confined flares hav~ only electromagnetic signature. CMEs can drive MHD shocks that accelerate charged particles to very high energies in the interplanetary space, which pose radiation hazard to astronauts and space systems. CMEs heading in the direction of Earth arrive in about two days and impact Earth's magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms. The magnetic storms result in a number of effects including induced curr~nts that can disrupt power grids, railroads, and underground pipelines

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

Solar origins of coronal mass ejections

The large scale properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), such as morphology, leading edge speed, and angular width and position, have been cataloged for many events observed with coronagraphs on the Skylab, P-78, and SMM spacecraft. While considerable study has been devoted to the characteristics of the SMEs, their solar origins are still only poorly understood. Recent observational work has involved statistical associations of CMEs with flares and filament eruptions, and some evidence exists that the flare and eruptive-filament associated CMEs define two classes of events, with the former being generally more energetic. Nevertheless, it is found that eruptive-filament CMEs can at times be very energetic, giving rise to interplanetary shocks and energetic particle events. The size of the impulsive phase in a flare-associated CME seems to play no significant role in the size or speed of the CME, but the angular sizes of CMEs may correlate with the scale sizes of the 1-8 angstrom x-ray flares. At the present time, He 10830 angstrom observations should be useful in studying the late development of double-ribbon flares and transient coronal holes to yield insights into the CME aftermath. The recently available white-light synoptic maps may also prove fruitful in defining the coronal conditions giving rise to CMEs.

Kahler, Stephen↗

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Severe Space Weather from Active-Region Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram. By empirically determining the conversion of the value of free-energy proxy measured from a GONG or HMI magnetogram to that which would be measured from an MDI magnetogram, we have made GONG and HMI magnetograms useable with our MDI-based forecasting curves to forecast event rates.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting the Solar Drivers of Solar Energetic Particle Events

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region's magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region's rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region's present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region's expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region's recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗

The Coronal-Dimming Footprint of a Streamer-Puff Coronal Mass Ejection: Confirmation of the Magnetic-Arch-Blowout Model

A streamer puff is a recently discovered variety of coronal mass ejection (CME) of narrow to moderate width. It (1) travels out along a streamer, transiently inflating the streamer but leaving it largely intact, and (2) occurs in step with a compact ejective flare in an outer flank of the base of the streamer. These aspects suggest the following magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for the production of these CMEs: the flare eruption expels a plasmoid that explodes up the leg of an outer loop of the arcade base of the streamer, blows out the top of this loop, and becomes the core of the CME. In this paper, we present a streamer-puff CME that produced a coronal dimming footprint. The coronal dimming, its magnetic setting, and the timing and magnetic setting of a strong compact ejective flare within the dimming footprint nicely confirm the magnetic-arch-blowout model. From these observations, together with several published cases of a trans-equatorial CME produced in tandem with an ejective flare or filament eruption that was far offset from directly under the CME, we propose that streamer-puff CMEs belong to a large class of "over-and-out" CMEs that are often much larger than streamer puffs but are similar to them in that they are produced by the blowout of a large quasi-potential magnetic arch by an ejective flare or filament eruption in one foot.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Solar Flares, Type III Radio Bursts, CMEs, and Energetic Particles

Despite the fact that it has been well known since the earliest observations that solar energetic particle events are well associated with solar flares it is often considered that the association is not physically significant. Instead, in large events, the particles are considered to be only accelerated at a shock driven by the coronal mass ejection (CME) that is also always present. If particles are accelerated in the associated flare, it is claimed that such particles do not find access to open field lines and therefore do not escape from the low corona. However recent work has established that long lasting type III radio bursts extending to low frequencies are associated with all prompt solar particle events. Such bursts establish the presence of open field lines. Furthermore, tracing the radio bursts to the lowest frequencies, generated near the observer, shows that the radio producing electrons gain access to a region of large angular extent. It is likely that the electrons undergo cross field transport and it seems reasonable that ions do also. Such observations indicate that particle propagation in the inner heliosphere is not yet fully understood. They also imply that the contribution of flare particles in major particle events needs to be properly addressed.

Cane, H. V.↗

Development of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3)

Robust prediction of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is among the key priorities of the space weather community. In the framework of NASA’s Early Stage Innovation Program, we develop the Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Portal (SEP3: https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3), which hosts web applications that allow the users to retrieve the database records. In particular, SEP3 lists the API examples to query each data source potentially important for the SEP prediction. The Portal has a search page for browsing the events from the most widely used catalogs (https://sun.njit.edu/SEP3/search.php) and a dedicated space to share the most recent achievements of the team. In addition, we have added a CDAW SEP catalog and a LASCO/SOHO CME catalog and introduced the possibility of displaying the properties of the connected events (parental solar flares and CMEs for SEPs) on the search page. The interactive widget has the capability to display GOES soft X-ray and proton flux time series from different satellites with the GOES flare records on top of them. The data portal has been used to evaluate the forecasts of the solar proton events based on the statistical properties of the GOES soft X-ray and proton fluxes and investigate machine-learning approaches to the SEP prediction.

SMD↗