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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Characterization of Subsurface Flow Dynamics for Forecasting of Solar Activity

Evolution of large-scale magnetic field structures in the solar photosphere and corona is controlled by motions beneath the visible surface of the Sun. Subsurface plasma flows play a critical role in formation and evolution of active regions and their activity. We analyze subsurface flow maps provided by the local helioseismology pipeline from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, and investigate links between flow characteristics and magnetic activity. The primary goal is to determine flow descriptors, which can improve solar activity forecasts. In particular, by employing machine learning classifiers, we test how the flow helicity and velocity shear descriptors can improve the prediction of initiation of flares and CME eruptions.

Kosovichev, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time inference and extrapolation with Time-Conditioned UNet: Applications in hypersonic flows, incompressible flows, and global temperature forecasting

Neural Operators are fast and accurate surrogates for nonlinear mappings between functional spaces within training domains. Extrapolation beyond the training domain remains a grand challenge across all application areas. We present Time-Conditioned UNet (TC-UNet) as an operator learning method to solve time-dependent PDEs continuously in time without any temporal discretization, including in extrapolation scenarios. TC-UNet incorporates the temporal evolution of the PDE into its architecture by combining a parameter conditioning approach with the attention mechanism from the Transformer architecture. After training, TC-UNet makes real-time inferences on an arbitrary temporal grid. We demonstrate its extrapolation capability on a climate problem by estimating the global temperature for several years and also for inviscid hypersonic flow around a double cone. We propose different training strategies involving temporal bundling and sub-sampling. We demonstrate performance improvements for several benchmarks, performing extrapolation for long time intervals and zero-shot super-resolution time.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Utilization of Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Environmental Purposes at the Savannah River Site – 26578

Born in the 1950s, the Savannah River Plant was constructed as a plutonium and tritium production plant. As the Cold War era came and went, a change of direction was signaled when the name of the facility changed from Savannah River Plant to Savannah River Site (1989) – the main mission at Savannah River shifted from “production” to “cleanup.” The Department of Energy is responsible for managing the 310 square miles of land that is the Savannah River Site and the cleanup/remediation activities that occur. The Savannah River National Laboratory utilizes unmanned aircraft systems to assist with some of those environmental monitoring and remediation activities. One function of unmanned aircraft systems at the Savannah River National Laboratory is conducting aerial photography and videography. Various infrastructure evaluations have been performed with unmanned aircraft – facility rooftop inspections, water tower lock verifications, earthen dam surveys, etc. An unmanned aircraft system has been used for progress footage of remediation projects – Dunbarton Bay remediation, Saltstone Disposal Unit construction, etc. Thermal cameras on an unmanned aircraft system are used to help identify cracks/leaks in structures from vantage points not readily accessible by personnel. Virtual tours of different waste units are conducted with unmanned aircraft systems for Site groups and federal/state regulators to save costs and travel time. Additionally, advanced remote sensing technologies are used on unmanned aircraft systems at the Savannah River Site. Light Detection and Ranging uses laser pulses to measure distances to the Earth's surface or other targets to create highly detailed topographic maps that accurately portray terrain (e.g., elevation changes, slopes, and contours). Data collection with a Light Detection and Ranging unit mounted on an unmanned aircraft system is quick and efficient – large-area surveys are conducted in shorter time frames. Because Light Detection and Ranging can penetrate through foliage and vegetation to ground level, it is being used in conjunction with a watershed model to study the General Separations Area of the Site to determine stormwater flow volume and direction, monitor stream stability, and forecast river flow behavior. A hyperspectral camera captures a wide spectrum of electromagnetic wavelengths across numerous narrow bands, beyond what the human eye can see. It provides detailed spectral information about the objects or surfaces in an image, which can be used to identify and analyze materials based on their spectral signatures. A hyperspectral camera mounted on an unmanned aircraft system has been used at the Savannah River Site for non-destructive evaluation of concrete and concrete structures. Unmanned aircraft systems at the Savannah River Site are also used for the application of herbicide on identified rooftops. P-Reactor and R-Reactor are entombed nuclear reactors at the Savannah River Site. Unwanted vegetation is often present on these rooftops – over time roots can penetrate seams, cracks, and joints of the general roof and concrete caps, leading to water ingress and deterioration of the structural components. For time and cost efficiencies as well as in the interest of personnel safety, an unmanned aircraft is used to dispense herbicide on rooftop areas where vegetation is noticed to help alleviate the issues/hazards.

Lorier, Troy [Savannah River National Laboratory (↗
NASA NTRS1999

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Design and Validation

An ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center to provide global three-dimensional analyzed ozone mixing ratio and total column ozone. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total column ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or SBUV/2 partial ozone profile data are assimilated. The analyzed winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) drive the ozone transport. Following every transport model timestep, the model prediction is combined with the observations using a global, physical-space based, statistical analysis scheme. Due to the smaller size of the ozone system than that of a global meteorological data assimilation system, new statistical analysis methodology, including anisotropic and flow-dependent forecast error correlation models, can be implemented and tested in the ozone system more easily. Sample results from the winter 1992 validation period are presented. There is a close agreement between the analyzed fields and the independent observations from ozone sondes and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE).

Stajner, I.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning turbulent flows with generative models for super resolution and sparse flow reconstruction

Neural operators are promising surrogates for dynamical systems but when trained with standard L 2 losses they tend to oversmooth fine-scale turbulent structures. Here, we show that combining operator learning with generative modeling overcomes this limitation. We consider three practical turbulent-flow challenges where conventional neural operators fail: spatio-temporal super-resolution, forecasting, and sparse flow reconstruction. For Schlieren jet super-resolution, an adversarially trained neural operator (adv-NO) reduces the energy-spectrum error by 15 × while preserving sharp gradients at neural operator-like inference cost. For 3D homogeneous isotropic turbulence, adv-NO trained on only 160 timesteps from a single trajectory forecasts accurately for five eddy-turnover times and offers 114 × wall-clock speed-up at inference than the baseline diffusion-based forecasters, enabling near-real-time rollouts. For reconstructing cylinder wake flows from highly sparse Particle Tracking Velocimetry-like inputs, a conditional generative model infers full 3D velocity and pressure fields with correct phase alignment and statistics. These advances enable accurate reconstruction and forecasting at low compute cost, bringing near-real-time analysis and control within reach in experimental and computational fluid mechanics.

Fluid dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Numerical prediction of the large scale tropical flow

The mean error characteristics of two series of forecasts of the tropical flow were studied. By using as initial conditions analyses made with and without the FGGE special observing system, the impact that initial data has on the accuracy of the forecasts is estimated.

Kalnay, E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Forecasts of the 500 mb height using a dynamically oriented statistical model

The forecast skill of a simple dynamically inspired statistical model of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field is evaluated in spectral and physical space for a variety of forecast lead times (1-32 days) and predictand averaging times (1-32 days). The model includes viscous damping, wave propagation, climatology and implicit stochastic forcing. The largest model skill was found for forecasts of the zonal flow and the largest waves. In general, the largest forecast skills were also associated with the largest forecast error, there being a slight geographic phase shift of the skill with respect to the error. Model skills for climate (time-averaged) forecasts are greater when using instantaneous rather than time averages to forecast time averages. Analysis of model errors suggests areas for improvement in representing forcing terms and model physics. However, the model error fields are largely 'white noise' which suggests that global forecast skills substantially larger than those obtained here are unlikely to be achieved by more sophisticated models.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of the synoptic- and mesoscale predictability of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0) model

A report is presented regarding the synoptic- and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a regional-scale numerical weather prediction model known as the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS, Version 2.0). The development of this model has been discussed by Kaplan et al. (1982). An evaluation of the performance of MASS 2.0 is based on the study of a sample of approximately thirty 12 h and 24 h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns over the U.S. during spring and early summer of 1982. A description of model systems is provided, and synoptic-scale evaluation methods are considered along with aspects of mesoscale evaluation methodology, examples of coherent mesoscale information provided by MASS 2.0, the results of a diagnostic study of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), and the results of a limited real-time forecast experiment.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Use of satellite data in runoff forecasting in the heavily forested, cloud-covered Pacific Northwest

The author has identified the following significant results. Satellite-derived snow cover data improves forecasts of stream flow but not at a statistically significant amount and should not be used exclusively because of persistent cloud cover. Based upon reconstruction runs, satellite data can be used to augment snow-flight data in the Upper Snake, Boise, Dworshak, and Hungry Horse basins. Satellite data does not compare well with aerial snow-flight data in the Libby basin.

Dillard, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey: (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward; and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18 C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the two weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling iscpycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the euphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy Dennis J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey-, (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the 2 weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling isopycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the cuphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Water Solutions Using Remote Sensing

NASA Water Resources works within Earth sciences to leverage investments of space-based observation, model results, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities into water resources management decision support tools for the sustainable use of water. Earth science satellite observations and modelling products provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as land cover type, vegetation type and health, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and water levels and radiation. Observations of this type combined with models and analysis enable satellite-based assessment of the water cycle. With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. The NASA Water Resources Program has the objective to provide NASA products to help deal with these issues with the goal for the sustainable use of water. The Water Resources program organizes its projects under five functional themes: 1) stream-flow and flood forecasting; 2) water consumptive use (includes evapotranspiration) and irrigation; 3) drought; 4) water quality; and 5) climate and water resources. NASA primarily works with national and international groups such as other US government agencies (NOAA, EPA, USGS, USAID) and various other groups to maximize the widest use of the water products. A summary of NASA's water activities linked to helping solve issues for developing countries will be highlighted.

Toll, David↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (httl://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Until recently, the forecasters created each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent was to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗
NASA NTRS2011

Flight Departure Delay and Rerouting Under Uncertainty in En Route Convective Weather

Delays caused by uncertainty in weather forecasts can be reduced by improving traffic flow management decisions. This paper presents a methodology for traffic flow management under uncertainty in convective weather forecasts. An algorithm for assigning departure delays and reroutes to aircraft is presented. Departure delay and route assignment are executed at multiple stages, during which, updated weather forecasts and flight schedules are used. At each stage, weather forecasts up to a certain look-ahead time are treated as deterministic and flight scheduling is done to mitigate the impact of weather on four-dimensional flight trajectories. Uncertainty in weather forecasts during departure scheduling results in tactical airborne holding of flights. The amount of airborne holding depends on the accuracy of forecasts as well as the look-ahead time included in the departure scheduling. The weather forecast look-ahead time is varied systematically within the experiments performed in this paper to analyze its effect on flight delays. Based on the results, longer look-ahead times cause higher departure delays and additional flying time due to reroutes. However, the amount of airborne holding necessary to prevent weather incursions reduces when the forecast look-ahead times are higher. For the chosen day of traffic and weather, setting the look-ahead time to 90 minutes yields the lowest total delay cost.

Mukherjee, Avijit↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Flow Regime Lightning and Sounding Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

Each morning, the forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) produce an experimental cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning threat index map for their county warning area (CWA) that is posted to their web site (http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/ghwo/lightning.shtml) . Given the hazardous nature of lightning in East Central Florida, especially during the warm season months of May September, these maps help users factor the threat of lightning, relative to their location, into their daily plans. The maps are color-coded in five levels from Very Low to Extreme, with threat level definitions based on the probability of lightning occurrence and the expected amount of CG activity. On a day in which thunderstorms are expected, there are typically two or more threat levels depicted spatially across the CWA. The locations of relative lightning threat maxima and minima often depend on the position and orientation of the low-level ridge axis, forecast propagation and interaction of sea/lake/outflow boundaries, expected evolution of moisture and stability fields, and other factors that can influence the spatial distribution of thunderstorms over the CWA. The lightning threat index maps are issued for the 24-hour period beginning at 1200 UTC each day with a grid resolution of 5 km x 5 km. Product preparation is performed on the AWIPS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), which is the standard NWS platform for graphical editing. Currently, the forecasters create each map manually, starting with a blank map. To improve efficiency of the forecast process, NWS MLB requested that the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) create gridded warm season lightning climatologies that could be used as first-guess inputs to initialize lightning threat index maps. The gridded values requested included CG strike densities and frequency of occurrence stratified by synoptic-scale flow regime. The intent is to improve consistency between forecasters while allowing them to focus on the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) in which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities, or number of strikes per specified area. The soundings used to determine the flow regimes were taken at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), FL, and the lightning data for the strike densities came from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at FSU and NWS TAE provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU.

Lambert, Winifred↗