Results for “flux vertical gradients” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Meridional Extent of Adiabatic Mixing in the Stratosphere Using Age-Of-Air

Wave-induced adiabatic mixing in the winter midlatitudes is one of the key processes impacting stratospheric transport. Understanding its strength and structure is vital to understanding the distribution of trace gases and their modulation under a changing climate. Age-of-air is often used to understand stratospheric transport, and this study proposes refinements to the vertical age gradient theory of Linz et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035199. The theory assumes exchange of air between a well-mixed tropics and a well-mixed extratropics, separated by a transport barrier, quantifying the adiabatic mixing flux across the interface using age-based measures. These assumptions are re-evaluated and a refined framework that includes the effects of meridional tracer gradients is established to quantify the mixing flux. This is achieved, in part, by computing a circulation streamfunction in age-potential temperature coordinates to generate a complete distribution of parcel ages being mixed in the midlatitudes. The streamfunction quantifies the “true” age of parcels mixed between the tropics and the extratropics. Applying the revised theory to an idealized and a comprehensive climate model reveals that ignoring the meridional gradients in age leads to an underestimation of the wave-driven mixing flux. Stronger, and qualitatively similar fluxes are obtained in both models, especially in the lower-to-middle stratosphere. While the meridional span of adiabatic mixing in the two models exhibits some differences, they show that the deep tropical pipe, that is, latitudes equatorward of 15° barely mix with older midlatitude air. The novel age-potential temperature circulation can be used to quantify additional aspects of stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Summertime Post-Cold-Frontal Marine Stratocumulus Transition Processes over the Eastern North Atlantic

Abstract Marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud morphology associated with two summertime cold fronts over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is investigated using high-resolution simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ENA Climate Research Facility. Lagrangian trajectories are used to study the evolution of post-cold-frontal MBL clouds from solid stratocumulus to broken cumulus. Clouds within specified domains in the vicinity of transitions are classified according to their degree of decoupling, and cloud-base and cloud-top breakup processes are evaluated. The Lagrangian derivative of the surface latent heat flux is found to be strongly correlated with that of the cloud fraction at cloud base in the simulations. Cloud-top entrainment instability (CTEI) is shown to operate only in the decoupled MBL. A new indicator of inversion strength at cloud top that employs the vertical gradients of equivalent potential temperature and saturation equivalent potential temperature, which can be computed directly from soundings, is proposed as an alternative to CTEI. Overall, results suggest that the deepening–warming hypothesis suggested by Bretherton and Wyant explains many of the characteristics of the summertime postfrontal MBL evolution of cloud structure over the ENA, thereby widening the phase space over which the hypothesis may be applied. A subset of the deepening–warming hypothesis involving warming initially dominating over moistening is proposed. It is postulated that changes in climate change–induced modifications in cold-frontal structure over the ENA may be accompanied by coincident changes in the location and timing of MBL cloud transitions in the post-cold-frontal environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

CO2 and CH4 leaf-level fluxes and soil porewater concentrations from common vegetation patches in Louisiana’s coastal wetlands

This dataset contains leaf-level flux and soil porewater concentration measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4 ) in plots in the footprint of Ameriflux sites US-LA2 and US-LA3. Leaf fluxes in US-LA2 were measured on patches dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia and co-dominated by Sagittaria lancifolia and Typha latifolia. In US-LA3, fluxes were measured from distinct Juncus roemerianus and Spartina alterniflora patches. The porewater concentrations were collected across a vertical profile (~50 cm depth) at centric locations within 25 m2 plots where we measured the leaf fluxes. US-LA3 included an additional set of measurements in open water spots. We aimed to evaluate differences in leaf fluxes and porewater pools of CO2 and CH4 of representative ecohydrological patches across a salinity gradient. We also used this dataset to help develop ELM-Wet, a more realistic representation of wetland carbon biogeochemical processes within the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model version 1 (ELM v.1). The files can be opened with regular text editors or spreadsheet programs. Version 2.0 (8/26/2025): This is the latest version of this dataset. The update includes additional samples of soil porewater CH4/CO2 concentrations from June-2021 to November-2022, as well as minor adjustments made to V1 samples via changing Henry's solubility to account for porewater salinity. Additionally leaf-level measurments of spectral indices, PSRI, NDVI, and PRI have been added to complement Leaf-level flux measurements. All V1 data sets have been integrated into V2 sheets, ensuring data from the previous version is contained with the additional samples and consistent with V2 metadata.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Aerosol Impacts on Mesoscale Convective Systems Forming Under Different Vertical Wind Shear Conditions

Following our previous study of wind shear effect on mesoscale convective system (MCS) organization under a clean atmospheric condition using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Spectral-Bin Microphysics, we conduct sensitivity simulations by increasing cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and investigate aerosol impacts on MCSs forming under different wind shear conditions. We find that, aerosols induce stronger updrafts and downdrafts in all MCSs. The stronger updrafts and enlarged convective core area contribute to larger vertical mass fluxes and enhance precipitation, indicating convective invigoration. Increased updraft speed below 8-km altitude mainly results from enhanced condensational heating, and increased water loading effect is not large enough to overcome the increase in thermal buoyancy. Interestingly, above 8-km altitude we see reduced updraft speed by the increased aerosols due to reduced vertical pressure perturbation gradient force, and weakened depositional growth due to competition of water vapor by enhanced condensation. The accumulated rainfall and mean rain rate are increased, with an increased occurrence frequency of heavy rain. The increase of rain rate is seen in both convective and stratiform regions, with a more significant increase in convective rain rate. In general, we see a higher frequency of deep convective cloud in the polluted condition because of invigorated convection, and more stratiform/anvil clouds, but a lower frequency of shallow warm clouds. The unanimously invigorated MCSs by aerosols under various wind shear conditions revealed by this study has an important implication in weather and climate at warm and humid regions that are influenced by pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Cloud Top Longwave Radiative Cooling Due To the Effect of Horizontal Radiative Transfer in the Stratocumulus to Trade Cumulus Transition Regime

Abstract Recent studies develop the SPeedy Algorithm for Radiative TrAnsfer through CloUd Sides (SPARTACUS) to handle the influence of horizontal RT on vertical radiative fluxes within an atmospheric column. The present study applies SPARTACUS to large eddy simulation (LES)‐generated cloud fields across the stratocumulus to trade cumulus transition (STCT) regime with coarse and fine vertical resolutions. The results show that, as the vertical resolution increases, radiation simulations show increasingly stronger cloud‐top longwave (LW) radiative cooling. Consequently, the sharp radiative heating gradient across the cloud layer in the LES‐like resolution simulations cannot be resolved with the coarse resolution simulations. Including the horizontal RT typically enhances cloud LW radiative cooling rate by less than 10% for all the cloud fields but more significantly in the cloud fields during the STCT. The enhanced cloud LW radiative cooling also occurs in the lower cloud layer in the decoupled cumulus cloud regime.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of radon-222 with the GEOS-Chem global model: Emissions, seasonality, and convective transport

Radon-222 (222Rn) is a short-lived radioactive gas naturally emitted from land surface, and has long been used to assess convective transport in atmospheric models. In this study, we simulate 222Rn using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with aims to improve our understanding of 222Rn emissions and surface concentration seasonality, and to characterize convective transport associated with two Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological products, MERRA and GEOS-FP. We evaluate four available 222Rn emission scenarios by comparing model results with surface observations at 51 global surface sites. The default emission scenario in GEOS-Chem yields a moderate agreement with global surface observations (< 70% data within a factor of 2) and a large underestimate of wintertime surface 222Rn concentrations at Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes due to an oversimplified formulation of 222Rn emission fluxes (1 atom cm-2 s-1 over land with a reduction by a factor of 3 under freezing conditions). We compose a new global 222Rn emission scenario based on Zhang et al. (2011) and show its potential to improve simulated surface 222Rn concentrations and seasonality. The regional components of this emission scenario include spatially and temporally varying emission fluxes derived from previous measurements of soil radium content and soil exhalation models, which are key factors to 222Rn emission flux rates. However, large model underestimates of surface 222Rn concentrations still exist in Asia, suggesting unusually high regional 222Rn emissions. We propose a conservative up-scaling factor of 1.2 for 222Rn emission fluxes in China, as also constrained by the observed deposition fluxes of 210Pb (decay daughter of 222Rn). With this modification, the model shows better agreement with the observations in Europe and North America (>80% data within a factor of 2), and reasonable agreement in Asia (close to 70%). Further constraints on 222Rn emissions would require additional observations of surface 222Rn concentrations and emission fluxes in central U.S., Canada, Africa, and Asia. We also compare and assess convective transport in model simulations driven by MERRA and GEOS-FP using observed 222Rn vertical profiles during northern mid-latitude summertime and from two short-term airborne campaigns. While the simulations with both GEOS products are able to capture the observed vertical gradient of 222Rn concentrations in the lower troposphere (0-4 km), neither correctly represents the level of convective detrainment, resulting in biases in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared to GEOS-FP, MERRA leads to stronger convective transport of 222Rn, which is partially compensated by its weaker large-scale vertical advection, resulting in similar global vertical distributions of 222Rn concentrations between the two simulations.

Zhang, Bo↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Models for Wall Temperature Predictions in Post-Critical Heat Flux Flow Regimes at Subcooled and Low-Quality Conditions

Accurately predicting post-critical heat flux (CHF) heat transfer is an important but challenging task in water-cooled reactor design and safety analysis. Although numerous heat transfer correlations have been developed to predict post-CHF heat transfer, these correlations are only applicable to relatively narrow ranges of flow conditions due to the complex physical nature of the post-CHF heat transfer regimes. In this paper, a large quantity of experimental data is collected and summarized from the literature for steady-state subcooled and low-quality film boiling regimes with water as the working fluid in vertical tubular test sections. In addition, a low-quality water film boiling (LWFB) database is consolidated with a total of 22,813 experimental data points, which cover a wide flow range of the system pressure from 0.1 to 9.0 MPa, mass flux from 25 to 2750 kg/m 2 s, and inlet subcooling from 1 to 70 °C. Two machine learning (ML) models, based on random forest (RF) and gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT), are trained and validated to predict wall temperatures in post-CHF flow regimes. The trained ML models demonstrate significantly improved accuracies compared to conventional empirical correlations. To further evaluate the performance of these two ML models from a statistical perspective, three criteria are investigated and three metrics are calculated to quantitatively assess the accuracy of these two ML models. For the full LWFB database, the root-mean-square errors between the measured and predicted wall temperatures by the GBDT and RF models are 5.7% and 6.2%, respectively, confirming the accuracy of the two ML models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Modulation of Gulf Stream Influence on the Troposphere by the Eddy-Driven Jet

This study suggests that the Gulf Stream influence on the wintertime North Atlantic troposphere is most pronounced when the eddy-driven jet (EDJ) is farthest south and better collocated with the Gulf Stream. Using the reanalysis dataset NCEP-CFSR for December–February 1979–2009, the daily EDJ latitude is separated into three regimes (northern, central, and southern). It is found that the average trajectory of atmospheric fronts covaries with EDJ latitude. In the southern EDJ regime (~19% of the time), the frequency of near-surface atmospheric fronts that pass across the Gulf Stream is maximized. Analysis suggests that this leads to significant strengthening in near-surface atmospheric frontal convergence resulting from strong air–sea sensible heat flux gradients (due to strong temperature gradients in the atmosphere and ocean). In recent studies, it was shown that the pronounced band of time-mean near-surface wind convergence across the Gulf Stream is set by atmospheric fronts. Here, it is shown that an even smaller subset of atmospheric fronts—those associated with a southern EDJ—primarily sets the time mean, due to enhanced Gulf Stream air–sea interaction. Furthermore, statistically significant anomalies in vertical velocity extending well above the boundary layer are identified in association with changes in EDJ latitude. These anomalies are particularly strong for a southern EDJ and are spatially consistent with increases in near-surface atmospheric frontal convergence over the Gulf Stream. These results imply that much of the Gulf Stream influence on the time-mean atmosphere is modulated on synoptic time scales, and enhanced when the EDJ is farthest south.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Turbulence Structures in the Very Stable Boundary Layer Under the Influence of Wind Profile Distortion

Abstract In very stable boundary layers (VSBL), a “cocktail” of submeso motions routinely result in elevated mean wind speed maxima above the ground, acting as a new source of turbulence generation. This new source of turbulent kinetic energy enhances turbulent mixing and causes mean wind profile distortion (WPD). As a results, this transient distortion in the wind profile adjusts the classical log‐law. Addressing how WPD‐induced turbulence regulates flow structures, turbulent fluxes, and transitions in stability regimes across layers remains a challenge. Eddy covariance data measured at four levels on a 62‐m tower are employed to address these questions. It is shown that the WPD initiates large turbulent eddies that penetrate downward, leading to enhanced vertical mixing and comparable turbulent transport efficiencies across layers. As a consequence, turbulence intensity and fluxes are increased. As the WPD is intensified, turbulent fluxes and turbulent flux transport caused by large eddies are also enhanced, leading to a transition from very stable to weakly stable regimes. Due to the influence of WPD‐induced large eddies, the large‐eddy turbulent Prandtl number does not deviate appreciably from unity and the partitioning between turbulent kinetic and potential energies is linearly related to the gradient Richardson number.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Azimuthally averaged wind and thermodynamic structures of tropical cyclones in global climate models and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution

Characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global climate models (GCMs) are known to be influenced by details of the model configurations, including horizontal resolution and parameterization schemes. Understanding model-to-model differences in TC characteristics is a prerequisite for reducing uncertainty in future TC activity projections by GCMs. This study performs a process-level examination of TC structures in eight GCM simulations that span a range of horizontal resolutions from 1° to 0.25°. A recently developed set of process-oriented diagnostics is used to examine the azimuthally averaged wind and thermodynamic structures of the GCM-simulated TCs. Results indicate that the inner-core wind structures of simulated TCs are more strongly constrained by the horizontal resolutions of the models than are the thermodynamic structures of those TCs. As expected, the structures of TC circulations become more realistic with smaller horizontal grid spacing, such that the radii of maximum wind (RMW) become smaller, and the maximum vertical velocities occur off the center. However, the RMWs are still too large, especially at higher intensities, and there are rising motions occurring at the storm centers, inconsistently with observations. The distributions of precipitation, moisture, radiative and surface turbulent heat fluxes around TCs are diverse, even across models with similar horizontal resolutions. At the same horizontal resolution, models that produce greater rainfall in the inner-core regions tend to simulate stronger TCs. Further, when TCs are weak, the radial gradient of net column radiative flux convergence is comparable to that of surface turbulent heat fluxes, emphasizing the importance of cloud-radiative feedbacks during the early developmental phases of TCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions

Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Can Simple Machine Learning Tools Extend and Improve Temperature-Based Methods to Infer Streambed Flux?

Temperature-based methods have been developed to infer 1D vertical exchange flux between a stream and the subsurface. Current analyses rely on fitting physically based analytical and numerical models to temperature time series measured at multiple depths to infer daily average flux. These methods have seen wide use in hydrologic science despite strong simplifying assumptions including a lack of consideration of model structural error or the impacts of multidimensional flow or the impacts of transient streambed hydraulic properties. We performed a “perfect-model experiment” investigation to examine whether regression trees, with and without gradient boosting, can extract sufficient information from model-generated subsurface temperature time series, with and without added measurement error, to infer the corresponding exchange flux time series at the streambed surface. Using model-generated, synthetic data allowed us to assess the basic limitations to the use of machine learning; further examination of real data is only warranted if the method can be shown to perform well under these ideal conditions. We also examined whether the inherent feature importance analyses of tree-based machine learning methods can be used to optimize monitoring networks for exchange flux inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mixing across stable density interfaces in forced stratified turbulence

Understanding how turbulence enhances irreversible scalar mixing in density-stratified fluids is a central problem in geophysical fluid dynamics. While isotropic overturning regions are commonly the focus of mixing analyses, we here investigate whether significant mixing may arise in anisotropic statically stable regions of the flow. Focusing on a single forced direct numerical simulation of stratified turbulence, we analyse spatial correlations between the vertical density gradient $\partial \rho /\partial z$ and the dissipation rates of kinetic energy $\epsilon$ and scalar variance $\chi$ , the latter quantifying scalar mixing. The domain is characterized by relatively well-mixed density layers separated by sharp stable interfaces that are correlated with high vertical shear. While static instability is most prevalent within the mixed layers, much of the scalar mixing is localized to the intervening interfaces, a phenomenon not apparent if considering local static instability or $\epsilon$ alone. While the majority of the domain is characterized by the canonical flux coefficient $\varGamma \equiv \chi /\epsilon =0.2$ , often assumed in ocean mixing parametrizations, extreme values of $\chi$ within the statically stable interfaces, associated with elevated $\varGamma$ , strongly skew the bulk statistics. Our findings suggest that current parametrizations of turbulent mixing may be biased by undersampling, such that the most common, but not necessarily the most significant, mixing events are overweighted. Having focused here on a single simulation of stratified turbulence, it is hoped that our results motivate a broader investigation into the role played by stable density interfaces in mixing, across a wider range of parameters and forcing schemes representative of ocean turbulence.

Couchman, Miles M. P. (ORCID:0000000246676829)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of integral models for non-Boussinesq lazy plumes using numerical simulations

Integral modelling of turbulent buoyant plumes is crucial for rapid predictions of plume characteristics. While the governing equations are typically derived using self-similarity and a Boussinesq approximation, these assumptions may not hold for plumes originating from finite-area sources with large density ratios. Here, this work evaluates the accuracy of integral-scale models for non-Boussinesq lazy plumes using high-fidelity numerical simulations of turbulent helium plumes. We analyse the plume kinematics by computing vertical fluxes, plume radius and radial profiles, establishing some disparities between common practice and physical accuracy. We identify how the definition of the plume radius changes the perception of the plume structure when the flow is not self-similar and derive a relationship between the flux-based and threshold-based definitions without requiring self-similarity. We then examine the plume dynamics by evaluating the source terms from the governing plume equations. Our results support neglecting diffusive and viscous effects but emphasise the importance of the mean pressure gradient, even in the self-similar regime. Two coefficients need to be modelled: the well-known entrainment coefficient and the lesser-known momentum correction coefficient, which is a correction required for the momentum equation to account for self-similar and slender approximations. The momentum correction coefficient is found to be approximately constant and slightly greater than the assumed value of 1. The standard entrainment coefficient models perform well up to a local Richardson number three times the asymptotic value but overpredict entrainment for larger Richardson numbers. We propose a correction using the known finite limit of entrainment at infinite Richardson number.

Meehan, Michael Alexander [Sandia National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivities of the West Greenland Current to Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater in a Mesoscale Ocean/Sea Ice Model

Abstract Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet can alter the continental shelf/slope circulation and cross-shelf freshwater fluxes and limit deep convection in adjacent basins through surface freshening. We explore the impacts on the West Greenland Current and eastern Labrador Sea with different vertical distributions of the meltwater forcing. In this study, we present the results from global coupled ocean/sea ice simulations, forced with atmospheric reanalysis, that are mesoscale eddy-active (∼2–3-km horizontal spacing) and eddy-permitting (∼6–7-km horizontal spacing) in the study region. We compare the West Greenland Current in mesoscale eddy-active and eddy-permitting without meltwater to highlight the role of small-scale features. The mesoscale eddy-active configuration is then used to assess the change in the eastern Labrador Sea when meltwater is added to the surface or vertically distributed to account for mixing within fjords. In both simulations with meltwater, the West Greenland and West Greenland Coastal Currents are faster than in the simulation with no meltwater; their mean surface speeds are the highest in the vertical distribution case. In the latter case, there is enhanced baroclinic conversion at the shelf break compared to the simulation with no meltwater. When meltwater is vertically distributed, there is an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy. In addition, in the eastern Labrador Sea, the salinity is lower and the meltwater volume is greater when meltwater is vertically distributed. Therefore, the West Greenland Current is sensitive to how meltwater is added to the ocean with implications for the freshening of the Labrador Sea. Significance Statement Our goal is to understand how the flux of freshwater across the West Greenland continental slope into the Labrador Sea is modified by meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We compare the simulations of the ocean that capture key dynamics along the West Greenland continental slope that have no meltwater, meltwater added to the ocean surface, and meltwater distributed vertically to represent the mixing within fjords. When meltwater is added, the currents along the continental slope are faster, with the greatest increase when meltwater is vertically distributed. In that case, there is enhanced freshening of the Labrador Sea because modified density gradients generate more eddies. Proper representation of the vertical structure of meltwater is important for projecting the impact of freshwater on the subpolar North Atlantic.

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