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NASA NTRS2015

Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

sea level↗

NASA NTRS2003

Turbulent Mixing of Multiphase Flow

Thus we conduct numerical simulations of multiphase fluids stirred by two-dimensional turbulence to assess the possibility of self-similar drop size distribution in turbulence. In our turbulence simulations, we also explore the non-diffusive limit, where molecular mobility for the interface is vanishing. Special care is needed to transport the non-diffusive interface. Numerically, we use the particle level set method to evolve the interface. Instead of using the usual methods to calculate the surface tension force from the level set function, we reconstruct the interface based on phase- field modeling, and calculate the continuum surface tension forcing from the reconstructed interface.

Young, Y.-N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Three-Dimensional Instantaneous Flow-field Reconstruction Using Planar Spectral Proper Orthogonal Decomposition

A novel method for three-dimensional flowfield reconstruction is presented that utilizes spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD). The time-resolved PIV data are acquired in multiple two-dimensional spanwise planes, with adequate streamwise spacing to resolve the out-of-plane wavelength. Knowledge of the out-of-plane phase speed is also required, and for the present case this value was obtained using instantaneous hot-wire measurements. The method is validated by comparing phase-averaged results acquired with a forcing signal to the SPOD reconstructed results using the same data. The method is also applied to data with no forcing applied, and the results are shown to be similar to the forced case. This method is particularly useful for cases in which there are multiple frequencies of interest, or cases in which the phenomena occur over a broad range of frequencies. This method allows reconstruction of the frequencies of interest without the need for a forcing signal, so the flow can be studied in its natural (undisturbed) state.

boundary-layer transition↗

NASA NTRS2013

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

variability↗

NASA NTRS1979

The 'Little Ice Age' - Northern Hemisphere average observations and model calculations

Numerical energy balance climate model calculations of the average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere for the past 400 years are compared with a new reconstruction of the past climate. Forcing with volcanic dust produces the best simulation, whereas expressing the solar constant as a function of the envelope of the sunspot number gives very poor results.

Robock, A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) Sensor Suite

The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite seeks to address the aerodynamic, aerothermodynamic, and thermal protection system (TPS) performance issues during atmospheric entry, descent, and landing of the Mars 2020 mission. Based on the highly successful instrumentation suite that flew on Mars Science Laboratory (MEDLI), the new sensor suite expands on the types of measurements and also seeks to answer questions not fully addressed by the previous mission. Sensor Package: MEDLI2 consists of 7 pressure transducers, 17 thermal plugs, 2 heat flux sensors, and one radiometer. The sensors are distributed across both the heatshield and backshell, unlike MEDLI (the first sensor suite), which was located solely on the heat-shield. The sensors will measure supersonic pressure on the forebody, a pressure measurement on the aftbody, near-surface and in-depth temperatures in the heatshield and backshell TPS materials, direct total heat flux on the aftbody, and direct radiative heating on the aftbody. Instrument Development: The supersonic pressure transducers, the direct heat flux sensors, and the radiometer all were tested during the development phase. The status of these sensors, including the piezo-resistive pressure sensors, will be presented. The current plans for qualification and calibration for all of the sensors will also be discussed. Post-Flight Data Analysis: Similar to MEDLI, the estimated flight trajectory will be reconstructed from the data. The aerodynamic parameters that will be reconstructed will be the axial force coefficient, freestream Mach number, base pressure, atmospheric density, and winds. The aerothermal quantities that will be determined are the heatshield and backshell aero-heating, turbulence transition across the heatshield, and TPS in-depth performance of PICA. By directly measuring the radiative and total heat fluxes on the back-shell, the convective portion of the heat flux will be estimated. The status of the current tools to perform the post-flight data analysis will be presented, along with plans for model improvements.

Hwang, Helen H.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) Sensor Suite

Hwang, Helen↗

NASA NTRS2023

Understanding the Deflection of the “Cartwheel CME”: Data Analysis and Modeling

We study the low corona evolution of the “Cartwheel” coronal mass ejection (CME; 2008 April 9) by- reconstructing its three-dimensional path and modeling it with magnetohydrodynamic simulations. This event exhibited a double deflection that has been reported and analyzed in previous works but whose underlying cause remained unclear. The Cartwheel CME traveled toward a coronal hole (CH) and against the magnetic gradients. Using a high-cadence, full-trajectory reconstruction, we accurately determine the location of the magnetic flux rope (MFR) and, consequently, the magnetic environment in which it is immersed. We find a pseudostreamer (PS) structure whose null point may be responsible for the complex evolution of the MFR at the initial phase. From the preeruptive magnetic field reconstruction, we estimate the dynamic forces acting on the MFR and provide a new physical insight into the motion exhibited by the 2008 April 9 event. By setting up a similar magnetic configuration in a 2.5D numerical simulation we are able to reproduce the observed behavior, confirming the importance of the PS null point. We find that the magnetic forces directed toward the null point cause the first deflection, directing the MFR toward the CH. Later, the magnetic pressure gradient of the CH produces the reversal motion of the MFR.

Solar prominences↗

NASA NTRS1977

Planetary tides during the Maunder Sunspot Minimum

In order to test the tidal theory of sunspots, sun-centered planetary conjunctions and tidal potentials are reconstructed for the period of the Maunder Minimum (1645 to 1715). These are found to be effectively indistinguishable from patterns of conjunctions and power spectra of tidal potential in the modern era of a well-established 11-yr sunspot cycle. The pattern of planetary tidal forces during the Maunder Minimum is then reconstructed to investigate the possibility that multiple-planet forces were somehow fortuituously cancelled at that time; i.e., the positions of the slower moving planets in the late 17th and early 18th centuries were such that conjunctions and tidal potentials were reduced in number and force. Calculations of daily positions for Mercury, Venus, earth, and Jupiter as well as daily values of the tidal potential for the period from 1450 to 2000 indicate no striking dissimilarities between the time of the Maunder Minimum and any other period considered.

Smythe, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Shuttle entry trajectory reconstruction using inflight accelerometer and gyro measurements

An error analysis has been made of a Shuttle postflight entry trajectory reconstruction process to obtain trajectory state estimation errors and to assess the impact of these errors on Shuttle aerodynamic force coefficient extraction. In this analysis, the entry trajectory is assumed to be reconstructed via numerical integration of onboard accelerometer and gyro measurements and constrained to satisfy ground-based radio tracking. The trajectory state estimation errors are calculated using a Kalman-Schmidt sequential filter assuming various measurement error models and combinations of ground-based tracking. The resultant trajectory estimation errors are analyzed in a simplified perturbation process to establish the accuracy to which postflight aerodynamic force coefficients can be determined. Results are presented which show that the principal error sources affecting the trajectory reconstruction and thus the force coefficient extraction, assuming perfect atmospheric density knowledge, are the accelerometer and gyro resolution, acceleration-sensitive gyro drifts, and the alignment uncertainties associated with integration on the Shuttle.

Compton, H. R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Goossee, Hugues↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lucy Orbit Determination Performance From Launch Through EGA-1

Lucy is a 12-year long NASA Discovery-class mission which launched on October 16, 2021 and is currently on its way to the Jupiter-Trojan asteroids at the L4 and L5 Lagrange points. On its journey to the Trojan asteroids, Lucy will also fly by two main belt asteroids, and perform 3 Earth fly bys. This paper summarizes primarily the Orbit Determination (OD) aspect of the first year of the mission from launch through the first Earth fly by (EGA-1). Some challenges were encountered for OD as part of the +Y solar array not fully deploying, but these were resolved within the first year of flight. The high quality radio-metric data from the Deep Space Network including 2- and 3-way Doppler, sequential 2-way ranging, complemented by delta differential one-way ranging (∆DOR) has enabled the OD team to characterize the Solar Radiation Pressure force, resolve desaturation maneuvers, generate both maneuver reconstructions and accurate long-term predicted trajectories. This paper discusses the filter setup and strategies implemented, as well as the OD performance from launch, through cruise, and including EGA-1.

Jeroen L. Geeraert↗

NASA NTRS2012

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

We report a series of experiments to explore clima~ responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Wen, G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Relating Paleoclimate Data and Past Temperature Gradients: Some Suggestive Rules

Understanding tropical sensitivity is perhaps the major concern confronting researchers, for both past and future climate change issues. Tropical data has been beset by contradictions, and many techniques applicable to the extratropics are either unavailable or fraught with uncertainty when applied at low latitudes. Paleoclimate data, if interpreted within the context of the latitudinal temperature gradient data they imply, can be used to estimate what happened to tropical temperatures in the past, and provide a first guess for what might happen in the future. The approach is made possible by the modeling result that atmospheric dynamical changes, and the climate impacts they produce, respond primarily to temperature gradient changes. Here we review some "rules" obtained from GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments with different sea surface temperature gradients and different forcing, that can be used to relate paleoclimate reconstructions to the likely temperature gradient changes they suggest.

Rind, David↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Devegetated Dune Fields on North American Climate During the Late Medieval Climate Anomaly

During the Medieval Climate Anomaly, North America experienced severe droughts and widespread mobilization of dune fields that persisted for decades. We use an atmosphere general circulation model, forced by a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature reconstruction and changes in the land surface consistent with estimates of dune mobilization (conceptualized as partial devegetation), to investigate whether the devegetation could have exacerbated the medieval droughts. Presence of devegetated dunes in the model significantly increases surface temperatures, but has little impact on precipitation or drought severity, as defined by either the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration. Results are similar to recent studies of the 1930s Dust Bowl drought, suggesting bare soil associated with the dunes, in and of itself, is not sufficient to amplify droughts over North America.

Cook, B. I.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗

NASA NTRS2017

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Kageyama, Masa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From Exploration Flight Test-1 to Artemis II--A NASA Langley's Orion Aerosciences Overview

The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.

Orion↗